Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kbmx 232024
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018
High clouds continue to blanket central Alabama, but have
gradually thinned out across the northern counties. There will
be a window later tonight and into early Wednesday morning when
cirrus clears out, which is why guidance is likely showing cooler
temperatures Wednesday morning than occurred this morning. The air
mass is still very dry, which will help with radiational cooling.
Wednesday through Tuesday.
Ridging builds in across most of the eastern Continental U.S. Wednesday ahead
of a trough sliding through The Rockies. The trough picks up the
remnant energy from Hurricane Willa and lifts the now shortwave
energy through southern Texas and into the northern Gulf of Mexico by
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A surface low forms early
Thursday and is expected to push eastward along the Gulf Coast
Thursday into Friday, increasing rain chances for central Alabama. Models
have come into good agreement on the overall timing of this system,
so i've trended pops upward, closer to the 80-90% range, for the
southern half of our area.
The main longwave trough remains over the eastern Continental U.S. For several
days, and at least two more shortwaves dip into the Gulf states
before we get into early next week. The first of these comes
Saturday evening into early Sunday as an upper low digs through the
Ohio River valley and into the central Appalachians. Expect early
Saturday to be mostly rain-free, but chances increase through the
afternoon and evening as the shortwave axis moves through.
Sunday should remain mostly dry ahead of the 2nd shortwave that
follows a similar track to the previous one. However, moisture
return ahead of this one is more limited, and guidance keeps most of
the energy to our north and west, so I have held off adding
mentionable pops in the forecast for early next week.
18z taf discussion.
VFR conds thru the period. No cig or vsby issues due to dry air
mass below below 5000 feet agl.
Much cooler and drier weather is expected for the first half of
this week. The next chance for rain builds in on Thursday. There
are no fire weather concerns at this time.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 41 69 47 57 47 / 0 0 0 70 70
Anniston 44 71 51 57 48 / 0 0 0 70 70
Birmingham 45 70 52 58 50 / 0 0 0 80 70
Tuscaloosa 45 72 54 59 51 / 0 0 20 80 60
Calera 46 71 53 57 49 / 0 0 10 80 70
Auburn 48 71 52 56 48 / 0 0 0 80 70
Montgomery 48 75 56 60 52 / 0 0 10 90 70
Troy 50 74 55 60 52 / 0 0 10 90 70