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000 
FXUS64 KFWD 222142
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
342 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight Through Wednesday/

Mostly cloudy skies continue across North and Central Texas this
afternoon. Temperatures are in the middle 50s along the Red River
to near 70 across southern parts of the forecast area. Area radars
reveal some light returns, indicative of drizzle or light rain
over northern and eastern sections of the region. Main weather
story during the short term will be the cold front which will move
through North and Central Texas this evening. 

Surface low currently over northeast OK and southeast KS will push
off to the northeast late this afternoon and evening. This will
drag a cold front through the area, and in fact this boundary has
already moved through Abilene and is moving into the western
zones. The front will approach the Metroplex between 22z and 00z,
exiting the region by 04z or 05z. A line of showers will accompany
the front as it moves through the region. Confidence is not high 
enough to mention thunder in the forecast as instability looks 
meager. Strong winds will develop behind the front this evening 
into the overnight hours, with some gusts between 30 and 35 mph in
and around the Metroplex. Confidence is not high enough to issue 
a wind advisory given the localized area of strong winds, but will
assess this potential as the evening progresses. Some precip will
linger behind the boundary late tonight into early Wednesday 
morning, especially across southeast sections of the area. There 
is a small window early Wednesday morning towards 12z where some 
light sleet could mix in with the rain across the southeast zones.
However, no impacts are expected at this time as temperatures are
expected to remain above freezing.

Precipitation will quickly move to the east Wednesday morning,
exiting the forecast area by 15z. Skies will continue to clear
from west to east during the day. Highs will generally range from
around 50 across the western zones to middle 40s across the
eastern zones. 

99

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Next Week/

Synopsis... 
Northwest flow aloft will ensue Wednesday night and continue into
next week, resulting in a parade of cold fronts the next several 
days. This will limit the duration of the warming trends between 
frontal passages, keeping temperatures generally below normal. It
will also prevent much Gulf moisture from interacting with the 
boundaries, will produce little if any precipitation. The notable 
exception will be Saturday's, which may benefit from a potent 
shortwave embedded in the northwest flow.

Thursday and Friday...
After a seasonally chilly start to the day on Thursday, sunshine
and dry air will attempt to push afternoon temperatures to near
normal. This process may be aided by veering (downslope) surface 
flow, but a cold front will arrive late in the day, perhaps before
areas north and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex have
reached peak heating. A sunny but chilly day will follow on Friday
when the postfrontal high transits the region. This may preclude
significant wind chill concerns Friday morning, but daytime
temperatures will be noticeably cooler than Thursday's.

Saturday...
Despite low-level warm advection Friday night, temperatures will 
still fall into the 30s Saturday morning in advance of the next 
front. While the atmosphere appears too dry for much if any
precipitation with the boundary, the trailing impulse may provide
sufficient lift for saturation aloft, cooling the column in the 
process. The best forcing has become displaced even further to the
west and south as the shortwave swings through the Lone Star
State, but an area of light precipitation will likely impact areas
mainly south of the I-20 corridor late in the day. Temperatures
would be well above freezing, and the precipitation in the
forecast is all liquid rain.

Next Week... 
Near normal temperatures will follow on Sunday and Monday before 
a much stronger front arrives. Tuesday next week will be the 
coldest day of the 7-day forecast, with some locations north of 
the I-20 corridor peaking in the 30s.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1156 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/
/18Z TAFs/

Main aviation concern is the strong cold front that will move
through the North and Central this evening. Prior to the front
moving through the area, widespread MVFR ceilings will continue
for the Metroplex terminals through the afternoon. FL will
generally range between 2000 and 3000 feet, but will monitor
trends and amend if ceilings dip below 2000 feet. At ACT, a mix of
MVFR and VFR ceilings will occur this afternoon. Some light 
drizzle may be possible during the afternoon at times, but will 
omit from the tafs as low confidence exists regarding how long it 
will last. 

The front should move through the Metroplex terminals around
22Z to 23Z and at Waco between 00z and 01z. Ceilings should 
return to VFR levels once the front moves through. A line of 
showers may also accompany the front and will continue to mention 
VCSH remarks at all sites. Northwesterly winds will become quite 
gusty in wake of the cold front, and have bumped up gusts with the
18Z forecast. Gusts could approach AWW criteria at DFW, with 
gusts around 30 knots at the DAL/FTW/GKY/AFW/ACT. Winds will begin
to diminish by mid morning on Wednesday to 15 to 20 knots. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    31  48  33  56  31 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Waco                34  49  32  58  31 /  30   0   0   0   0 
Paris               29  44  29  52  27 /  60   0   0   0   0 
Denton              30  47  31  56  29 /  20   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            30  45  31  54  29 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              32  48  33  56  31 /  20   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             31  46  30  55  30 /  30   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           33  46  31  55  32 /  50   0   0   0   0 
Temple              35  50  32  58  34 /  30   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       31  49  32  57  29 /  10   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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