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FXUS64 KFWD 161834 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
134 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018


Concerns---Potential for showers and storms in the vicinity of
Metroplex terminals on Friday. Otherwise, VFR.

VFR is expected to prevail through the entire TAF cycle with
generally south flow. Convection is expected to develop late this
evening and into the overnight hours along the Red River which
could cause some issues for northbound departures and arrivals
from the Bowie and Bonham cornerposts. This activity may slide
southward toward the I-20 corridor, but the decreasing wind field
aloft should ensure that showers/storms will be on the decline. 
For now, I'll advertise VCSH that could impact the Friday morning
push from 11 to 15 UTC at the Metroplex. Convective outflow could
result in a deviation from the southerly flow currently 
advertised in the TAF. The predictability of these potential 
boundaries is too low to include in the TAF at this time. There 
should be a lull in convective coverage through the noontime hour 
with reinvigorated convection in the early to mid afternoon across
North Texas. Confidence is high enough to include a VCTS group in
the extended portion of the D/FW TAF between 18 and 22 UTC 
Friday. Storms may produce gusty winds and heavy rain which may 
result in restricted visibility.

Waco will remain unaffected by showers or thunderstorms...unless
activity develops earlier and farther south than currently
expected. VFR should prevail, though MVFR stratus may attempt to 
make another run at the terminal on Friday morning.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 402 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

A shortwave is currently moving east-southeast across the Texas
Panhandle and helping to maintain an area of showers and
thunderstorms northwest of the CWA early this morning. Chances 
are that this area of convection will dissipate before reaching 
North Texas, but we will keep less than 20 POPs along the Red 
River for the outside chance of an isolated storm later today. 
Meanwhile, an upper low can be seen on satellite moving east 
across Nebraska. A second disturbance is progged to swing around 
the southwest portion of the upper low tonight, generating another
round of showers and storms to our northwest. It looks like this 
activity will occur a little farther south, warranting slight 
chance POPs roughly along and north of the Highway 380 corridor 
for tonight.

Otherwise, the primary concern will be the hot weather still
expected across the region. The good news is that debris from
upstream convection will keep temperatures slightly lower than
what we were expecting this time yesterday. Still, heat index
values from 100 to 104 will likely be experienced for all but the
southwest counties, where drier air will knock a few degrees off 
apparent temperatures.


.LONG TERM... /Issued 402 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/
/Friday through Next Week/

The passing shortwave will force a weak front southward to near 
the Red River on Friday. There should be enough lift generated by 
the northwest flow aloft over the Southern Plains to ignite 
scattered thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front during peak 
heating hours Friday. Storms will likely remain scattered in 
nature, but should generate enough mid and high cloud cover to 
keep temperatures and heat indices below heat advisory criteria, 
though again 100-104 apparent temperatures will be fairly common. 
A few of the storms Friday afternoon and evening will be capable 
of gusty winds and hail due to the enhanced shear provided by the 
northwest flow. 

Thunderstorm chances will continue over the weekend along the Red
River due to the presence of the lingering boundary, good diurnal
instability and modest shear. The better chances for storms will
occur along the Red River with slight chance POPs extending as far
south as I-20. 

A strong shortwave trough will then travel southeast through the 
Southern and Central Plains Sunday and Sunday night, sending a 
cold front south of the Red River and bringing better chances for 
showers and thunderstorms to the region. The strongest upper level
forcing will occur Sunday evening, which is when the better storm
chances and potential for strong to possibly severe storms will 
occur. Severe weather would not be widespread, but instability and
shear should be enough for at least an outside chance for a 
damaging wind gust. A chance of storms will linger through 
midweek as the boundary becomes stationary over the area, but 
upper level forcing will be weak and coverage isolated.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  80  98  78  98 /   5  10  10  10  10 
Waco                98  77  99  77  99 /   5   5   5   5   5 
Paris               95  76  96  75  95 /  10  20  30  30  30 
Denton              96  78  97  77  98 /  10  20  20  20  20 
McKinney            96  78  97  77  98 /  10  10  20  20  20 
Dallas              98  80  98  80  98 /   5  10  10  10  10 
Terrell             96  77  98  77  97 /  10  10  10  10  10 
Corsicana           97  77  98  78  97 /   5   5  10   5   5 
Temple              98  76  99  76  99 /   5   5   0   5   5 
Mineral Wells       96  76  97  75  97 /   5  10  10  10  10 



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