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000 
FXUS66 KLOX 141632
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 
932 AM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...14/756 AM.

Not much change in temperatures through Wednesday. Warming is 
expected Thursday and Friday with minor changes going into the 
weekend. Night to morning low clouds and fog returning to the 
coastal plain and some valleys through Thursday, but decreasing by
the end of the week. Slight chance of afternoon and evening 
thunderstorms across the mountains of eastern Los Angeles County 
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...14/929 AM.

Not too much change in the pattern thru Thu. A very weak upper 
low to the southwest of the region will drift eastward 
tonight/Wed, then it will dissipate. Upper level high pressure 
over Texas will expand back into the region Wed and Thu, causing 
heights/thicknesses to rise a bit. The marine layer should become 
more shallow, and night thru morning low clouds and fog will be 
confined mainly to the coastal plain. Max temps should edge upward
a couple of degrees each day in most areas, especially in the 
valleys as the marine influence lessens. By Thu max temps will 
get close to 100 degrees in the hottest locations in the valleys. 
There may be just enough mid level moisture moving into eastern 
sections of the region to allow for some shower/tstm development 
during the afternoon and evening hours Thu across the mtns of L.A.
County, but at this point the threat looks minimal. 

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...14/415 AM.

High pressure will continue to expand into the region Fri and Sat.
Night thru morning low clouds will be minimal in coverage and 
confined to the immediate coast. Max temps will rise a bit more Fri,
likely reaching or slightly exceeding 100 degrees in the warmest 
locations in the valleys and across much of the Antelope Valley. 
Little change in max temps expected Sat. There will still be a 
slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and tstorms over the 
eastern San Gabriel mountains Fri, then it looks drier Sat. 
Earlier model runs were showing some cooling Sun/Mon. However, 
latest runs show little change in heights/thicknesses and onshore
gradients, so expect only minor changes in temps and night thru 
morning low cloud coverage Sun/Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1256Z.

At 1130z at KLAX... the inversion was around 1100 feet. The top 
of the inversion was around 3300 feet with a temperature of about
27 degrees Celsius.

Overall... Low to moderate confidence in coastal/KPRB TAFs and 
high confidence in the inland TAFs. IFR/MVFR conditions will waft 
in and out of the coastal terminals through 18z then will return 
after 03z. IFR/MVFR conditions at KPRB through 15z. Otherwise and 
elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail.

KLAX... Moderate confidence in the current TAF. IFR/MVFR conditions
will waft in and out of the terminal area through 18z then will 
return after 05z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. There will
not be east winds greater than eight knots during the forecast 
period.

KBUR... High confidence in the current TAF. There is a less than
ten percent chance of IFR/MVFR conditions through 16z. Otherwise
VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...14/929 AM.

For the Outer Waters... Conditions will remain below Small Craft 
Advisory (SCA) levels through at least Tuesday. On Wednesday, 
winds will strengthen and there is a thirty percent chance of 
winds reaching SCA level by Wednesday night and a forty percent 
chance during the Thursday through Saturday period.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Conception... Conditions will
remain below SCA levels through at least Wednesday. Winds will 
strengthen on Wednesday, and on Thursday and Friday there is a 
thirty percent chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and 
evening.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception... Conditions are 
expected to remain below SCA levels through Saturday.

Patchy dense fog will form in the overnight and morning hours in
portions of the coastal waters through the week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (THU-MON).

No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB

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