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FXUS62 KMFL 171744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1244 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC FL050-060 cloud deck hard to scatter out 
this afternoon for KFXE southwards, so will keep prevailing 
through at least this evening. Other sites will occasional BKN 
cigs at same level. NE-ENE winds 8-10kts through remainder of
afternoon, diminishing with sunset, likely becoming NNE or NW 
overnight for east coast. Repeat conditions for tomorrow with
winds more solidly ENE-E. 


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 916 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018/ 

UPDATE...High pressure across the southern US will remain the 
dominant weather influence across South Florida today. The 
influence of this ridge sliding east will veer our winds around to
the northeast once daytime heating breaks the low level 

More of an onshore flow component will bring warmer temps today,
reaching into the upper 70s and low 80s across the area. The
persistent cloud cover across the southern tip of the peninsula
will remain, but the first few morning vis satellite images and
models suggest it will be more partly than mostly cloudy today. 

No significant changes to the ongoing forecast for what will be
a nice late fall day for South Florida. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 208 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018/ 

A fairly quiet weather pattern is set up for at least a good part
of the week, with a warming trend.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement with the
overall pattern. Basically, near zonal flow at 500mb over the
area, and a surface high slowly passes to the north of the area 
today, and moves off the mid- Atlantic coast tomorrow. This will 
allow the wind to become northeasterly today and should maintain a
northerly to northeasterly direction for the next several days, 
as the high becomes somewhat elongated, stretching back over the 
southeast US.

By Tuesday, models have the a very subtle cold front push through
the area. It does not look to be really noticeable, but the
1000-500mb thickness does slightly drop and models do show a
slight chance of some showers for Tuesday. Also, temperatures may
be a couple degrees cooler on Tuesday, although still generally 
in the 80s. Behind this boundary, high pressure will build again 
for a day or two.

Where this front may come more into play is for the end of the
week. Models are indicating a low forming over the northwestern 
Gulf, and pushing the front back to the north as a weak warm 
front. They are indicating this may bring enough instability and 
moisture to the area for a chance of showers for Thanksgiving day,
through the weekend. There may be enough instability to bring a 
few thunderstorms as well. However, currently those are forecast 
to be over the Atlantic waters.

MARINE...With high pressure to the north, the wind across the 
South Florida waters should keep a moderate breeze out of the 
north to northeast through most of the week. Seas are forecast to 
subside today, becoming 1 to 2 for the Gulf, and 2 to 4 feet for 
the Atlantic waters. By the beginning of the week, the Gulf waters
will run up to a foot, and the Atlantic 1 to 3 feet. The weather 
is forecast to be generally dry, although some isolated showers 
can not be ruled out, especially for the Atlantic. For the second 
half of the week, rain chances increase, as well as a slight 
chance of thunderstorms, again, especially for the Atlantic 

Looking a a convergence line off the southeast Florida coast, and
a weak low level wind flow, can not rule out a waterspout. This
would be a low risk, as the wind above 5000ft is out of the west
to west southwest and a little strong to support anything more
than a slight chance of a spout forming.

With the moderate breeze out of the northeast, the risk of rip
currents for the Atlantic waters will be elevated through the
week, with the weekend having at least a moderate risk.

West Palm Beach  61  81  63  83 /  10  10  10  10 
Fort Lauderdale  70  82  71  83 /   0  10  10  10 
Miami            67  82  69  83 /   0  10  10  10 
Naples           63  83  66  83 /   0  10   0  10 



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