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000 
FXUS62 KMFL 210216 AAC
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
916 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE 2...
Some drier air has worked into South Florida from the Atlantic
waters late this evening. The latest short range models show this
dry air to remain over South Florida for rest of tonight.
Therefore, the slight chance of showers for the east coast metro
areas has been removed from the forecast for tonight. Rest of the
forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are
planned.

&&
UPDATE 2...BNB/54


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 735 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018/ 

UPDATE...
No changes needed to be made to the previous forecast as
everything looks on track. There will still be enough low level
moisture in place to support a slight chance of showers overnight
especially across the east coast metro areas. High pressure will
bring mainly dry conditions to South Florida on Wednesday with
warm temperatures. Afternoon high temperatures will range in the
lower 80s across the east coast to the upper 80s across the
interior. 

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018/ 

AVIATION...
The easterly winds over the taf sites will decrease to around 10 
knots for tonight, except for KFLL where the speeds should remain
at 10 to 15 knots tonight. The easterly winds will then increase 
again to around 15 knots on Wednesday over all of the taf sites.
There could be a few showers over the east coast taf sites, but
the coverage will be few and far between. Therefore, the taf sites
will remain dry tonight into Wednesday along with VFR conditions
in the ceiling and vis.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Rain chances will continue to diminish tonight as a weak
disturbance continues to move out of the region. There will still
be enough low level moisture in place due to the easterly flow,
Therefore a slight chance of a shower still cannot be ruled out 
tonight especially along the east coast metro areas. Low 
temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid 60s across 
the northwestern interior areas to the mid 70s along the east 
coast metro areas. 

A strong upper level ridge will remain in place just to our east
and it will strengthen through the middle of the week. Latest
computer model guidance continues to show a fairly dry atmosphere
with PWATS hovering around 1 inch. Another weak disturbance will
move into the area on Wednesday night into Thursday. Most of the
moisture associated with this will remain off to our south over
the Keys and the Florida straights. Enough moisture will be in
place however to reach into South Florida to keep a slight chance
of showers during this time frame especially along Atlantic and
east coast metro areas. 

Both of the GFS and the ECMWF continue to show the upper level
ridge beginning to weaken towards the end of the week and into
this weekend. The lower ridge axis will also shift southward
creating more of a southeasterly flow into the upcoming weekend.
There will also be enough lower level moisture to bring periods 
of showers, especially for the Atlantic and east coast metro areas
during the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. 
Temperatures will continue to be in the low to mid 80s during the 
day, with overnight lows in the 60s over the interior and Gulf and
low 70s along the east coast. 

MARINE...
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the
weather pattern over the local waters through the remainder of the
week and into the upcoming weekend. A moderate to fresh east
southeasterly wind will continue with speeds of 10 to 15 knots
over the Gulf waters and 15 to 20 knots for the Atlantic. Wave
heights will range from 3 to 4 feet in the offshore Gulf waters
and 3 to 5 feet in the Atlantic. Occasional showers are possible
throughout the period across the Atlantic waters. 

BEACH FORECAST...
Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk of rip currents on 
Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the week.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  72  81  71  81 /  10  10  20  20 
Fort Lauderdale  74  81  73  81 /  10  20  20  20 
Miami            73  82  72  82 /  10  20  20  20 
Naples           69  87  67  86 /  10   0  10   0 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

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