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000 
FXUS64 KMRX 190711
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 AM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)...
Tranquil weather will continue across the area for this period as
a large high pressure ridge will maintain its position over the
Southern Appalachian region. Some cirrus with a shortwave trough
will cross the area today, but it should have little impact on the
sensible weather. The warming trend of the past few days will 
continue today and tomorrow, with highs today in the mid 70s, then
upper 70s on Friday and Saturday. Clouds will be increasing on
Saturday and Saturday night as the ridge axis shifts toward the
Atlantic coast and a trough deepens across the Plains. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)... 
Model forecasts for this period have some timing, positioning, 
and strength issues but it appears that we squeeze out one final 
day of basically dry weather on Sunday as an upper trough deepens 
into an upper low over the Lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday 
into Monday. Showers and some thunderstorms will start to build 
into the Southern Appalachian region during this period, and will 
become likely Monday into Monday night. The showers will taper off
a bit behind the a cold front associated with the upper trough. 
However, more jet stream energy will be diving south out of Canada
allowing for the amplification of a deepening long wave trough 
over the Eastern states. Therefore, a medium to high chance for 
showers will continue Tuesday into Wednesday as sufficient 
moisture and lift accompanies this slow moving trough. Very chilly
air will build south into the forecast area at mid week. 
Temperatures will be about five to ten degrees below normal on 
Wednesday and there may even be a few snow flurries in the highest
elevations along the North Carolina border Wednesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  45  78  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  43  77  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       73  44  78  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              73  41  77  43 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.

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