Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXUS64 KMRX 201928

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
328 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)...Skies are mostly sunny and
very warm to hot at mid afternoon with temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Heat index values are in the lower to mid 90s
this afternoon. High pressure ridge has strengthened over the 
forecast area since Saturday and heights may build even more 
Monday. Cloud cover is limited to some scattered cu over the 
plateau and higher eastern Tennessee and southwest Virginia 
mountains. No precipitation is showing up on area radars too. 
Pattern looks similar Monday but a slight increase in moisture 
from east of the mountains will bring a small chance for showers 
and storms to higher elevations of Clay County NC and extreme 
northeast Tennessee mountains late afternoon to around sunset. 
This should not affect Eclipse viewing during the early to mid 
afternoon. The main concern is the warm temperatures and high UV 
index before and after the eclipse for people spending the day 
outdoors. Not much relief from winds which will be light south to 
southwest. Lows tonight should be a couple degrees warmer than 
Sundays...mid 60s north and northeast to lower 70s around 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)...This part of the 
forecast remains basically unchanged with the main event being a 
high likelihood of frontal convection primarily Tuesday night into
Wednesday with a gradual drop in probability Wednesday night as 
the cold front slips south and east onto the Piedmont. Cooler and 
drier air builds in for much of the remainder of the extended 
forecast. However, had to keep a little bit of an orographic pop 
going for the higher terrain features on Saturday and Sunday with 
a weak cyclonic flow developing aloft and a hint of an inverted 
trough forming at the surface. It still appears that there will be
a nice drop in temperatures behind the cold front with maxes a 
good five to ten degrees cooler through the end of the work week 
and only a slight warming trend expected over the weekend. 



Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  92  74  91 /   0  10   0  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  89  72  90 /   0  10   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  91  72  90 /   0  10   0  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  89  68  88 /  10  10   0  10 



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations