Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KOUN 111723 AAC AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 .AVIATION... 11/18Z TAFs. VFR conditions to continue. Gusty northwest winds will be seen behind a surface trough that will progress slowly across Oklahoma and northern Texas this afternoon. Winds will become more northerly but gusts should subside after 00-02Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1053 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ UPDATE... Lowered dewpoints a few degrees based on observations/trends. Red Flag Warning will remain as is with gusty northerly winds being the main driving mechanism. Although winds may be somewhat on the marginal side across west-central into northwest Oklahoma for Red Flag conditions, ERC-G values from there extending into the Panhandles are approaching record levels for the time of year. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 458 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ DISCUSSION... AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through Tuesday morning. Winds will become north and northwest this morning and gusty before subsiding tonight. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017/ DISCUSSION... A red flag warning is in effect this afternoon for northern Oklahoma. A front will bring gusty north and northwest winds today into the already very dry airmass. High temperatures today will be 10 to 20 degrees above normals as they will again Wednesday. Air masses that pass behind the fronts today and Wednesday will bring temperatures close to normals on Tuesday and Thursday. The roller coaster from mild to very warm and no precipitation this week will keep wildfire potential elevated most days. Into the weekend the northwest flow pattern shifts toward more westerly and more persistently warm. An upper trough that passes through the southern plains late next weekend probably will not have sufficient moisture to cause much chance for rain until it is east of Oklahoma; thus, the very dry and warm December continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 66 32 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 68 30 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 71 33 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 65 27 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 62 27 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 70 37 53 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ004>020. TX...None.