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000 
FXUS64 KOUN 210434
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1034 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.AVIATION...
6Z TAFs - VFR/MVFR ceilings expected overnight. IFR ceilings are
expected to spread north Wednesday. Precipitation expected to
remain S/SE of TAF site overnight but spread back north Wednesday.
Freezing rain and sleet will be the primary concerns for
precipitation.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 817 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/ 

UPDATE...
Area of precip continues to slowly shift south and east this
evening. Will allow segment of advisory that included parts of
central Oklahoma to expire and keep portions of southern Oklahoma
and a small part of north Texas through the overnight. Have also
made some minor tweaks to precip chances as well as temps
overnight. 

Precip may linger through the night across far southeast Oklahoma
with a mix of rain/freezing rain. Forecast still appears on track
to see another round of freezing rain develop and move north
impacting much of the area by Wednesday afternoon. So have not
made any changes to forecast beyond the tonight period. 

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/ 

AVIATION...
0Z TAFs - FZRA will be possible for a few more hours this evening
at KSPS. Freezing rain and sleet will spread back across the area
Wednesday. MVFR/VFR ceilings will affect the area tonight with IFR
ceilings returning Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/ 

DISCUSSION...
Freezing rain is expected to end across central Oklahoma by
the early evening. However, as temperatures continue to cool
across southern Oklahoma this evening, some of the precipitation 
will change to freezing rain. Therefore, a winter weather 
advisory was issued for parts of south central and southeastern 
Oklahoma. Some of the precipitation across south central and 
southeast Oklahoma will be heavy at times, and flooding will 
remain a concern through at least Wednesday morning. Areas from 
near Ardmore to Tishomingo and Centrahoma have already received 
about 3 inches of rain today.

By early Wednesday morning, freezing rain is expected to develop 
across north Texas and southern Oklahoma as another wave 
approaches the southern Plains. The precipitation is expected to 
spread and develop to the north Wednesday afternoon and evening. 
Some of the precipitation may fall as sleet, especially across the
northern half of Oklahoma. Overall, precipitation amounts are 
expected to be much lighter than today, but enough elevated 
instability may result in areas of moderate to heavy freezing 
rain. The wind will not be as strong Wednesday which should help 
with stress on power lines and trees.

As cold high pressure builds to the east late Wednesday into
Thursday, temperatures will begin to warm enough that mainly
a cold rain is expected by Thursday afternoon. 

Another round or two of rain is expected Friday into Saturday.
Mainly dry weather is expected Saturday night through Monday.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  22  31  29  39 /  10  70  70  70 
Hobart OK         20  30  28  37 /  10  70  60  50 
Wichita Falls TX  25  32  30  41 /  10  80  60  70 
Gage OK           14  27  22  33 /  10  40  30  30 
Ponca City OK     20  33  28  38 /  10  50  70  60 
Durant OK         31  38  33  51 /  90  80  60  70 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight CST 
     Wednesday night for OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>031-
     033>040-044.

     Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Wednesday for OKZ032-041>043-046>048-
     050>052.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for 
     OKZ032-041>043-045>047-050-051.

TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight CST 
     Wednesday night for TXZ083>089.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for 
     TXZ090.

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