Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KOUN 210434 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1034 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018 .AVIATION... 6Z TAFs - VFR/MVFR ceilings expected overnight. IFR ceilings are expected to spread north Wednesday. Precipitation expected to remain S/SE of TAF site overnight but spread back north Wednesday. Freezing rain and sleet will be the primary concerns for precipitation. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 817 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/ UPDATE... Area of precip continues to slowly shift south and east this evening. Will allow segment of advisory that included parts of central Oklahoma to expire and keep portions of southern Oklahoma and a small part of north Texas through the overnight. Have also made some minor tweaks to precip chances as well as temps overnight. Precip may linger through the night across far southeast Oklahoma with a mix of rain/freezing rain. Forecast still appears on track to see another round of freezing rain develop and move north impacting much of the area by Wednesday afternoon. So have not made any changes to forecast beyond the tonight period. 30 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/ AVIATION... 0Z TAFs - FZRA will be possible for a few more hours this evening at KSPS. Freezing rain and sleet will spread back across the area Wednesday. MVFR/VFR ceilings will affect the area tonight with IFR ceilings returning Wednesday. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/ DISCUSSION... Freezing rain is expected to end across central Oklahoma by the early evening. However, as temperatures continue to cool across southern Oklahoma this evening, some of the precipitation will change to freezing rain. Therefore, a winter weather advisory was issued for parts of south central and southeastern Oklahoma. Some of the precipitation across south central and southeast Oklahoma will be heavy at times, and flooding will remain a concern through at least Wednesday morning. Areas from near Ardmore to Tishomingo and Centrahoma have already received about 3 inches of rain today. By early Wednesday morning, freezing rain is expected to develop across north Texas and southern Oklahoma as another wave approaches the southern Plains. The precipitation is expected to spread and develop to the north Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some of the precipitation may fall as sleet, especially across the northern half of Oklahoma. Overall, precipitation amounts are expected to be much lighter than today, but enough elevated instability may result in areas of moderate to heavy freezing rain. The wind will not be as strong Wednesday which should help with stress on power lines and trees. As cold high pressure builds to the east late Wednesday into Thursday, temperatures will begin to warm enough that mainly a cold rain is expected by Thursday afternoon. Another round or two of rain is expected Friday into Saturday. Mainly dry weather is expected Saturday night through Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 22 31 29 39 / 10 70 70 70 Hobart OK 20 30 28 37 / 10 70 60 50 Wichita Falls TX 25 32 30 41 / 10 80 60 70 Gage OK 14 27 22 33 / 10 40 30 30 Ponca City OK 20 33 28 38 / 10 50 70 60 Durant OK 31 38 33 51 / 90 80 60 70 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night for OKZ005>008-010>013-015>020-022>031- 033>040-044. Flood Watch until 6 AM CST Wednesday for OKZ032-041>043-046>048- 050>052. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for OKZ032-041>043-045>047-050-051. TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night for TXZ083>089. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for TXZ090.