AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 
745 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY. A 
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND CROSS THE AREA 
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER 
THE WEEKEND.
 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HOLDS OVER NC THIS MORNING. FOG THUS FAR 
HAS BEEN A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE PATCHY THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... 
PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO AREAS OF SCT-BKN MID CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER THE 
AREA... ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION PASSING ESE 
THROUGH THE REGION JUST EAST OF THE INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
RIDGE. ADDITIONAL MID CLOUDS OVER NE NC AND TO THE NE ARE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. WE MAY SEE A FEW 
SPRINKLES OVER NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS 
MORNING... BUT THE MOISTURE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY APPRECIABLE 
PRECIP. THE VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD ONCE 
AGAIN MAKE FOR A SLOW DISSOLUTION OF THIS MORNING'S FOG... HOWEVER 
IF IT REMAINS MORE LIGHT AND PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK (IN CONTRAST TO 
THE HRRR WHICH DEPICTS WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE)... 
WE WOULD THEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY. 
REGARDLESS... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT (JUST ABOVE 700 MB) FOR 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MANY OF THE CONVECTION 
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL AS THE NAM/GFS AND SREF PROBABILITIES 
SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL POP UP THIS AFTERNOON... 
PROMPTED BY HEATING WHICH SHOULD YIELD PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF 
CAPE... ALMOST ALL BELOW 700 MB. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ORIENTED 
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MOVING NE THROUGH THE AREA LATE 
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID-LATE 
AFTERNOON STRETCHING THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. 
AS DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM 
FRONTAL ZONE... EXPECT YET ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FOG... BUT THIS 
FOG SHOULD STAY LIGHT GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF STRATOCUMULUS TO CURB 
NOCTURNAL COOLING. HIGHS FROM 78 NE TO 84 SW... WITH THICKNESSES 
RUNNING NEARLY 10 M ABOVE NORMAL. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 60-64. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

LATEST MODEL OUTPUT ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF 
POTENT MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ITS ATTENDING 
LARGE SCALE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NOAM... AND THE 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WE GET FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR 
DURING FRI MORNING... AND THE FRONT ITSELF SHOULD GET INTO WRN NC BY 
MID EVENING... AND THEN SWEEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... REACHING THE 
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT... WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING QUICKLY FROM AROUND 1 INCH 
TO AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE KINEMATICS 
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE DECENT... WITH A 35-40 KT SWRLY LOW LEVEL JET 
ALIGNED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR 
INCREASING TO 30 (EAST) TO 50 (EAST) KTS FRI NIGHT. BUT THE 
PROJECTED MUCAPE VALUES ARE MINOR... PEAKING AT JUST 250-500 J/KG... 
MADE WORSE BY THE LOSS OF HEATING WITH AN EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE. 
DYNAMICS ARE BETTER BUT SIMILARLY MUTED... GIVEN THAT THE LEAD 
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ENE OVER NC IS RATHER WEAK... AND THE BULK OF THE 
HEIGHT FALLS ARE HELD TO OUR NW OVER THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY 
CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL VORTEX. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD AND 
UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA... STILL EXPECT 
GOOD SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE. WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCE POPS 
WEST BY MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING EASTWARD WITH HIGH POPS TOPPING 
OUT AT 60-80% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT... BEFORE STARTING TO PUSH 
OUT OF THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. OVERALL QPF LOOKS MEAGER WITH THIS 
EVENT... LIKELY TOTALLING A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE LOW POTENTIAL 
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY CUT THE SEVERE THREAT... ALTHOUGH A FEW 
BOWING SEGMENTS MAY BRING DOWN SOME OF THE 30-40 KTS OF WIND FROM 
ALOFT... EVEN WITH JUST SHOWERS. HIGHS NEAR 80 NW (WHERE CLOUDS 
SHOULD BE FIRST TO SPREAD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON) TO 85 SE. LOWS 57 
NW TO 66 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLY 
SATURDAY...WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST 
AHEAD OF IT...EXITING THE AREA BY NOON SATURDAY. ONCE THE RAIN ENDS 
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES 
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE 
FORECAST DRY. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO 
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING NE OVER NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL 
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN 
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S SATURDAY AND MID 60S EVERYWHERE SUNDAY. 
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...LOW 
40S NW TO UPPER 40S SE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...MID 40S 
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK... 
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S MONDAY INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 70S BY 
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 50-55 DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING INTO THE 55-
60 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND 
STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL NC TAF 
SITES HAVE VARIED AMONG MVFR AND IFR/LIFR OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS... 
WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT RWI. THESE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 
15Z... AND TO VFR BY 17Z. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AT CENTRAL NC 
TAF SITES... ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS 
MORNING COULD BRING AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO TO RDU/RWI. AND 
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED VERY LIGHT (VFR) SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING 
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY CALM THROUGH 
MID MORNING... THEN REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
BUT PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG MAY FORM ONCE 
AGAIN LATE IN THE TAF VALID PERIOD (AFTER 06Z FRI)... AND THIS 
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI MORNING. 

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY FRI MORNING... EXPECT IMPROVEMENT OF VSBYS 
TO VFR DURING MID-LATE FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL 
BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FRI EVENING 
THROUGH FRI NIGHT... EXITING THE EASTERN TAFS EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR 
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH 
MONDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD 
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD 
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC 
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



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