AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 
235 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST 
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL 
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC 
COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE 
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE 
AREA FROM THE WEST.  BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE 
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH 
BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. 

MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 
40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS 
THURSDAY 65-70.  

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY... 

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES 
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR 
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH 
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.  

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...

FOR SAT-SUN NIGHT: AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST 
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING... A BENIGN WEST-TO-EAST-
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SAT WITH LIGHT SURFACE 
FLOW BACKING FROM NW TO WSW. GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIR ON 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING 
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC... EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SCTD FLAT CUMULUS 
SAT. A FAST-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO 
NC FROM THE NW LATE SAT NIGHT... A RESULT OF STRONG VORTICITY 
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID LEVEL 
LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM SRN ONTARIO ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH SUN 
MORNING. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE COLD FRONT 
PASSAGE... BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT 
WILL BE MUTED BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE SUPPRESSION OF 
THE (ELEVATED) LIFT TO OUR NORTH. AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW 
LITTLE TO NO DROP IN THICKNESSES... WITH THE FRONT JUST BRUSHING 
ACROSS NRN NC. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HOLDS ALL COOLER AIR NORTH OF 
THE BORDER AND KEEPS CENTRAL NC THICKNESSES 20-30 M ABOVE NORMAL. 
EVEN THE MORE SUBDUED ECMWF HAS TRENDED MILDER. SO... EXPECT 
SATURDAY'S SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S TO HOLD 
FIRM FOR SUNDAY AS WELL... AND COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER 
ACROSS SRN NC. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SAT NIGHT. EXPECT 
TEMPS TO BE A TAD COOLER SUN NIGHT... LOW-MID 40S... AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER NC FROM THE NW... ALLOWING FOR GOOD 
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS AND A DROPOFF OF WINDS 
OVERNIGHT.

FOR MON-WED: DRY AND WARMING. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE 
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE OVER AND OFF THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS 
EASTWARD TO OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WED. AS 
THE SURFACE... THE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL EASE SLOWLY OFF THE 
COAST WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 
TAKE A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES 
TUE/WED WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER THERE IS 
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND 
FRONT TOWARD NC. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS A BIT ABOVE-NORMAL AND A TREND 
TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INTRODUCES GRADUALLY 
IMPROVING MOISTURE... BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IN SIGHT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE 
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF 
PERIOD.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT 
RANGE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AT POINTS EATS OF KRDU...WITH A 
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE 
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. 

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS



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