AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST 
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES 
NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN 
TRACK EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 345 PM SUNDAY...

COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT OF 
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ISSUES AND THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WIDESPREAD AREA OF MAINLY 
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON IS 
LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT IN A 
VEERING WIND PROFILE. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RISE 
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND 
SANDHILLS. ANOTHER REGION OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWESTERN NC 
SOUTHWARD TO COASTAL GA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED 
BY A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING A REGION OF MODERATE 
INSTABILITY. THIS AREA HAS SHOWN AN INCREASING TREND IN TERMS OF 
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST. CONVECTION 
ALLOWING MODELS BRING THIS AREA OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL 
NC THIS EVENING THROUGH A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE 
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE CLEARED CENTRAL NC BY AROUND 200 AM. 

A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A DAMAGING 
WIND GUST OR BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22-06Z...MAINLY 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A TORNADO WATCH IS CURRENTLY 
IN EFFECT THROUGH 800 PM JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE RAH CWA. IN 
ADDITION TO THE LIMITED BUT NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT...A TRANSITORY 
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC 
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A ONE OR TWO HOUR 
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT 
EXPECTED...URBAN AREAS AND TYPICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS IN THE 
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND YADKIN VALLEY AREAS ARE MOST AT RISK. 

TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A LIMITED DIURNAL TREND TONIGHT WITH THE 
CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND SOUTHEAST BREEZE AT 10-15 MPH THAT 
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 
60S. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 420 PM SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
THEN MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE 
TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON 
MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE 
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER 
DEW POINTS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 
80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 
VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON 
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES. THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE 
AND RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE 
COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED. HOWEVER...IF 
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAINLY FROM 
THE 21 TO 06Z TIME FRAME AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION PUSHES 
EAST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAMAGING WIND 
GUSTS BUT IF A LESS LINEAR AND MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE 
OCCURS... MORE LIKELY EARLIER IN THE EVENT...THAN A INCREASING 
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT.  HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE 
IN THE 78 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 52 TO 60 RANGE. 
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BY 
TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO CENTRAL NC. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY 
NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. 
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS 
RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED 
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON THE 
LOW END. NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE 
FORECAST FOR EARLY THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST 
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH (EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO THE 
MID/UPPER 70S FURTHER SOUTH. 

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD 
TO THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE OVERALL 
PATTERN INDICATES THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST 
SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN...AS A SOUTHERN 
STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE 
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SPREADING PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. 
HOWEVER...AS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT...DETAILS HAVE YET TO BE 
WORKED OUT. REGARDLESS...WILL SHOW POPS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 
WITH (AS OF NOW AT LEAST) DRIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL 
GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. 

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH 
OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST...ENDING IN THE NORTHEAST BY AROUND 06Z...BUT LOW 
CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE CEILINGS WILL BE 
IFR...VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR DUE TO MIXING WITH 
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATE 
MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AND GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. 

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND SPREAD EAST INTO 
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE ACROSS 
CENTRAL NC DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS 
INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION 
WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. A RETURN 
TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES 
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...VINCENT 
LONG TERM...KRD 
AVIATION...BLAES


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