AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

THROUGH 12Z MON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (NEAR 
STEAMBOAT SPRINGS CO AT 12Z) WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN 
NEBRASKA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW LIFTS 
NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TX TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SECOND 
WAVE (POTENT/COMPACT UPPER LOW) PROGRESSES RAPIDLY EAST FROM 
SOUTHERN CA TO WESTERN TX. FORCING ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED 
FEATURES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY...AMPLIFYING THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. ACCORDINGLY...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING 
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN 
PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES /DRY 
CONDITIONS/ AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO 
MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST 
WILL PERSIST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE...CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS 12Z MON...SHIFTS SLOWLY 
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z TUE. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY 
RETURN FLOW /AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION/ WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO 
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A DRY/STABLE/ 
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC. EXPECT DRY AND 
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS MON 
NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WARMEST IN THE SANDHILLS AND WESTERN 
PIEDMONT WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE TUE 
MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...

THE MID/UPR RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG OR JUST E OF THE SE 
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE AT THE SFC AND IN THE BL...LOW LEVEL 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE RIDGE TO OUR E AND THE 
TROUGH OVER THE OH/MISS VALLEY REGIONS BOTH GRADUALLY MOVING E. WITH 
THE MOISTURE PLUME TO OUR W GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFTING E... 
THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLD-TO-SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL ALSO 
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM W TO E DURING THIS TIME. ON TUESDAY...THE 
BEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF 
OUR CWA...AND ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. 

THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER S/W TROUGH WILL BE STALLED  
ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME BY 
THEN WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND UP INTO VA. THIS 
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A DECENT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/ 
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL 
ATTEMPT TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AND MAY HELP TO PUSH 
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS  FARTHER INLAND. 

NEXT WEEKEND...LATEST GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO 
AND STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN 
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS MUCH 
SLOWER...KEEPING THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR 
NOW WILL HOLD POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO. 

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING AND SUBSEQUENT LOW 
LEVEL THICKNESSES GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME...NEAR 
NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL 
VALUES FOR LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AND 
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR 
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD/SCT 
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE-THU AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTS AN 
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RAH 
AVIATION...VINCENT


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