AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS 
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE 
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.  

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN 
AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM BREAKING 
80 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE 
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
LOW TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN 
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HINT AT 
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE EAST...FORECAST 
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. 
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WOULD ALSO HELP TO LESSEN ANY FOG 
THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN 
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S 
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM 
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE 
WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA 
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED 
HIGHS.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY... 

DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL CONTINUE 
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF RELAXATION AND HEIGHT RISES ALOFT 
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENERGY DIVING 
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.  THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 10M OVER 
WEDNESDAY...STARTING OUT AT 1395M THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD 
YIELD 83-87 UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  DEWPOINTS STILL IN 
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OR 
LESS...THOUGH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY 
LAYER MAY HELP ENHANCE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE.  ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS 
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MID AND HIGH 
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES 
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.  LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...
 
THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS ONE OF MIXED CONFIDENCE.  
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL 
REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...PLACING NC IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG THE 
SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY 
MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY WASH OUT BY EARLY 
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE 
BUILDS WESTWARD.  THIS WILL CAUSE PW TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY.  WHILE THIS POINTS TOWARD A WET 
WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO BEST TIME FRAME FOR 
PRECIP.  ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM 
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION.  ITS HARD TO PUT MUCH FAITH 
IN SUCH A FEATURE THREE DAYS OUT...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN 
INCREASE IN QPF FOR FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40-50 
RANGE.  HOWEVER...BEYOND FRIDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO KEY ON FOR 
FORCING OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND WEAKENING COASTAL 
TROUGH.  THUS...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN EACH DAY BE KEEP THEM BELOW 
50 PERCENT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT WHICH DAY WILL BE FAVORED. 
 THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN LIMITED 
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME 
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENDUE 
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHEN 
TO OUR EAST.  

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS 
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT IS MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE 
EAST CLOSER TO SUNRISE. A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOES NOT 
MAKE THIS SEEM LIKELY AND SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW 
BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AT KRDU...KFAY...AND 
KRWI. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A PREDOMINANTLY NORTH 
OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE 
SOUTH AND EAST AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: A FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OFFSHORE MAY RETROGRADE BACK 
OVER EASTERN NC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN 
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
 
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS 
NEAR TERM...ELLIS 
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...ELLIS



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