AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 
1015 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA 
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LINGER IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN ADJUSTMENT IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS TO DWINDLE PRECIP 
CHANCES A BIT OVER THE SE COUNTIES.

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DRIER SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR MASS 
FILTERING INTO CENTRAL NC. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED OVER THE BULK OF 
THE REGION AT 925-850MB WHILE MOISTURE BECOMING LIMITED BELOW 600MB. 
PER MESO ANALYSIS...APPEARS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL EXITS 
ALONG A WILSON-LAURINBURG LINE SOUTHWARD TO RETAIN A SLIGHT-SMALL 
CHANCE POP LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND 
WEST...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TOO DRY AND FORCING LIMITED TO HEATING SO 
A POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE.

SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS AT 850MB SUPPORT THE FORECAST 
OF AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. ACROSS MOST OF THE 
PIEDMONT...LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A DRIER DEWPOINTS WITH MID 
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 HIGHLY PROBABLE. 
THUS...IT WILL FEEL LESS HUMID (AND THE HEAT SLIGHTLY MORE 
TOLERABLE) COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE SE COUNTIES SHOULD 
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD 
TO PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG IN VICINITY OF KFAY...KGSB...AND KCTZ BY 
EARLY SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT FAIR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MIN TEMPS 
LOW-MID 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE. -WSS

SAT/SAT NIGHT: A QUIET DAY AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS HOLDS OVERHEAD... 
WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING THROUGH ERN AND SE NC AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WNW. EXPECT A ROUND OF ISOLATED MID-
LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FAR SE WITHIN MARGINAL 
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE... WITH DRY WEATHER 
ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE DRY AND SUBSIDING MID LEVELS AND FALLING PW 
VALUES. AGAIN LEANING TOWARD A DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE... 
EXPECT HIGHS OF 90-95... WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT 63-70. -GIH
 
&&
 
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...

A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 
CONUS AND NEAR STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. 
DURING THIS PERIOD A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL 
KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY DRY. TO THE NORTH...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM 
STRETCHING SOUTHWARD...WILL IMPINGE UPON THE SURFACE HIGH BY THE END 
OF THE SHORT TERM... HELPING TO WEAKEN THE HIGH BUT SHOULD STILL 
REMAIN DRY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR 
PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN THE FORM OF POTENTIAL DIURNAL 
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE RETURN FLOW 
AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA 
WHICH COULD USE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT AS A CATALYST FOR CONVECTION 
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...THE AIRMASS 
AS A WHOLE WILL BE VERY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL KEEP 
PRECIP CHANCES VERY LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S 
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE. DEWPOINTS WILL MODERATE 
FROM THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY 
MONDAY...RESULTING IN AND OVERALL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...  

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND 
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES 
MOVES GRADUALLY NORTH AND EASTWARD. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE 
FORCING ALOFT TO HELP ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT MAY 
FORM...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD SET UP 
AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE VERY 
DRY WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AND IN WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY 
NOTABLE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY...EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY 
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN 
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A 
POTENT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE MIDWEST MOVES EASTWARD AND HELPS TO 
REINVIGORATE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER 
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN CANADA. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AT THIS STAGE 
WITH THE EUROPEAN COMING IN SLOWER THAN THE GFS BUT THE MESSAGE IS 
THE SAME. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT SOME POINT 
ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. SHEAR AND 
INSTABILITY ARE FAIRLY WEAK AT THIS POINT BUT WITH THE EXTRA FORCING 
FROM THE WAVE...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY TO 
SEE A WET MICROBURST OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IF TIMING SPLITS THE 
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS AND COMES IN AT PEAK 
HEATING...WHEN THE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT IS 
MAXIMIZED. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER LIKELY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO 
DROP BACK TO THE LOW 90S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...

ABOVE-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT CENTRAL NC 
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COOL FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING 
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC HAS MOVED JUST SE OF RDU... 
AND WITH THE DRIER POST-FRONT AIR PUSHING IN... INT/GSO/RDU ARE 
LIKELY TO SEE LITTLE MORE THAN SCT VFR CLOUDS (POSSIBLY BECOMING BKN 
BRIEFLY FRI AFTERNOON) AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS TODAY. AT RWI/FAY...  
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THESE TWO LOCATIONS BEING 
ON THE EDGE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY COMBINED WITH AN 
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A 
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IF THEY DEVELOP NEAR FAY/RWI THIS 
AFTERNOON. 

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z FRIDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS 
DOMINATING AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH TUE. THE ONLY 
EXCEPTION IS THE STALLED FRONT COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG SAT 
MORNING... AND POSSIBLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS 
TO FAY SAT AFTERNOON. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS 
NEAR TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD 
SHORT TERM...ELLIS 
LONG TERM...ELLIS 
AVIATION...HARTFIELD


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