AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 
246 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY 
THURSDAY... BEFORE PUSHING TO OUR SOUTH. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE 
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN 
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 244 AM WEDNESDAY...

VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL 
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. IN ITS WAKE SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW AT THE SURFACE 
NORTHERLY AND AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY 
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. DESPITE THE COLD THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 
SUNSHINE AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
SETTLED AS THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CEASES. MAYBE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS IN 
THE EAST THIS MORNING AS BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. 
WINDS WILL CALM LATER ON TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ENCROACH ON NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...HAMPERING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL 
COOLING. THICKNESS VALUES ALSO WILL BE HIGHER IN THE WEST THAN IN 
THE EAST...THEREFORE BETWEEN THE CLOUDS AND THE THICKNESS 
VALUES..EXPECT THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN OUR SOUTHERN AND 
EASTERN RURAL AREAS. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY 
AS IT MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NC AND EVENTUALLY OUT INTO THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUT CENTRAL NC ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE HIGH IN 
THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER BUT 
ONLY LIMITED AS HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA 
DURING PEAK HEATING AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. THEREFORE WE 
WILL HAVE TO SETTLE FOR UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. BY 
THURSDAY EVENING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. IN 
OUR AREA...MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION 
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THE MOMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER 
VALUES ONLY RISE TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF WATER AND ALL MODELS HINT 
AT PRECIPITATION FIZZLING OUT OVER CENTRAL NC AND THEN PICKING UP 
AGAIN OFFSHORE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 120 KT 500 MB JET STREAM 
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST CREATING A 500 MB VORT MAX 
THAT WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL LIFT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME 
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z FRIDAY MORNING BUT WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH 
MOISTURE REMAINS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME LOW 
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH 
THAT 0-6Z TIMEFRAME BUT OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LOWS 
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW 30S NW TO UPPER 30S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
AS OF 225 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: DRY AND COOL. LATEST MODEL RUNS UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE 
SURFACE FRONT OFF THE NC COAST FRI MORNING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION 
COMMENCING... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE 
UPPER MIDWEST PUSHES EASTWARD WHILE BUILDING SOUTH INTO NC. GOOD 
MIXING AND A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS 
SUSTAINED UP TO 15-20 MPH... AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUPPORTS GUSTS TO 
25-30 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... ABATING SLOWLY 
IN THE EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF MIXING. FALLING THICKNESSES 
FRI INDICATE HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DESPITE PLENTY OF 
SUNSHINE. WINDS FALL OFF FRI NIGHT BUT DON'T GO COMPLETELY CALM... 
YET THE CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDING IN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND OTHERWISE 
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING STILL FAVORS LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 20S... 
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW TEENS IN OUTLYING AREAS. 
SUNSHINE CONTINUES SAT AS THE HIGH RIDGES SOUTHWARD INTO NC. HIGHS 
STILL BELOW NORMAL... 44-48. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER 
AND JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES 
SSE AND OFFSHORE... AND WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE AS 
WSW MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS DRAWING IN WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM VORTICITY 
FROM THE BAJA LOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

SUN-TUE: CONFIDENCE INCREASING THAT WE'LL SEE A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN... 
LIKELY FOCUSED IN THE SUN NIGHT-MON TIME FRAME. THE ECWMF IS A BIT 
FASTER THAN THE GFS BY ABOUT 3-6 HRS... AND WILL GO WITH A 
COMPROMISE TIMING SOLUTION FOR NOW... BUT OTHERWISE THE TWO MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AMPLIFICATION AND PRECIP PLACEMENT. A 
POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
MISS VALLEY SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT AS ITS ASSOCIATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW 
MOVES JUST AHEAD OF IT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY... ALL THE WHILE 
PULLING INCREASING SOUTHERN-STREAM MOISTURE FROM EAST OF THE NW-
MEXICO LOW... ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT 
INTO THE GULF STATES AND MID SOUTH. THE ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE TIMING 
SUPPORTS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE FAR WRN CWA LATE SUN... 
FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADING EASTWARD SUN EVENING THROUGH 
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY... AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
CROSSES THE OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID 
ATLANTIC REGION. HAVE SLOWED DOWN BOTH THE ARRIVAL AND EXIT OF 
PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS... AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT MORE AT THE 
EVENT'S PEAK BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THEIR 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND VERY HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX 
AND VIGOROUS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SOAR 
OVER CENTRAL NC SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MON... 
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A LINGERING COOL STABLE POOL 
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. SO WE SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS... MAINLY 
OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA... DESPITE THE HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE 
GFS DEPICTS A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT... 
AND IF THIS WEAK INSTABILITY PERSISTS IN LATER RUNS... A RISK OF 
THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS MOST LIKELY MON 
AFTERNOON... WITH PLUNGING THICKNESSES POST-FRONT AS ANOTHER 
CANADIAN SOURCE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES 
MON EVENING WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES MON NIGHT 
THROUGH TUE. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 
THE TAF PERIOD AS VERY DRY AIR HAS COME INTO THE REGION WITH 
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS. WINDS ARE 
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS STILL PREVAILING UP TO 20 KTS. 
OTHERWISE EXPECT 5-10 KT WINDS OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. OTHER 
THAN SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND THE 3500 FOOT LEVEL AND POSSIBLY 
SOME OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AT THE 5-6 KFT LEVEL DRIFTING OUT OF VA AND 
INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE AN ALL AROUND PLEASANT 
AVIATION DAY.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY 
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND 
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. 

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD 
NEAR TERM...ELLIS 
SHORT TERM...ELLIS 
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD 
AVIATION...ELLIS



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