AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 
1010 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT 
AND MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL 
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 1010PM...

TONIGHT...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD WILL CAUSE CALM CLEAR CONDITIONS 
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER HAVE ALREADY DECREASED 
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH WINDS ABOUT 3KT OR LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S 
TOWARD THE SOUTH...WITH LOWER 40S IN THE URBAN AREAS. THOUGH THE 
TEMPS WILL BE COOL...FROST IS UNLIKELY EXCEPT IN VERY ISOLATED AREAS 
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

THURSDAY... 
A SIMILAR HIGH PRESSURE REGIME SHOULD BE IN PLACE. THUS 
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COOLER 
TEMPS IN THE NE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO LOWER LOW LEVEL 
THICKNESSES THAN WERE OBSERVED TODAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH 
CLOUDS...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR...AND WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO VEER FROM THE ENE IN THE MORNING TO MORE SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE 
DAY. 

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EWD OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN A LOW LEVEL S-SW 
FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO 
CENTRAL NC. ALOFT...UPPER WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT MID-HIGH LEVEL 
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC. THUS...SHOULD SEE INCREASING/THICKENING 
CLOUD COVERAGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY BE 
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPEMENT OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IN 
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DAYBREAK. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP HAS BEEN 
INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MILDER TEMPS 
THURSDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND 
LIGHT SLY WIND. MIN TEMPS MID 40S NE TO LOWER 50S SW.
&& 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION 
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING WEAK COLD 
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY 
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DECREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...MOST NOTABLY 
BEING THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL HAVE 
IMPLICATIONS ON OUR PRECIP AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE THREAT. THE GFS 
MOVES THE WEAK ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WHILE THE 
ECMWF IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE SOMEWHAT 
SLOWER IN ITS PROGRESSION (WITH THE NAM BEING IN THE MIDDLE). WITH 
THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE (PER GFS)...SHOWERS SHOULD BE 
ONGOING DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT... 
THUS LIMITING THE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...OUR AREA 
WOULD BE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE BEFORE THE FRONT 
MOVES THROUGH. ALL OF THIS WOULD LEAD TO A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER 
THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION...FEATURES COULD LINE 
UP MORE FAVORABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE 
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...EVEN THE GFS INDICATES SOME 
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST) AS TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 
80 DEGREES AND THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO 
SEVERE STORM.  

THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT 
BRINGING OUR PRECIP TO AN END. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RANGE 
FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S FURTHER SOUTH 
AND EAST. ANOTHER REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS IT MOVES 
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME DRIER AIR 
FILTERING IN. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER 
FOR CENTRAL NC...WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH 
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG SYSTEM 
THAT WILL LIKELY BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS 
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT TO BE 
WORKED OUT WITH REGARD TO THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE 
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. OVERALL THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL 
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR 
BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOKING TO BE ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME 
OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE 
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE 
AMOUNT/TIMING OF CLOUDS/PRECIP. 

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
AS OF 750 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD (HIGH CONFIDENCE)... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS... EXPECT WINDS 
WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
AND CONTINUE SO THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS 
CENTRAL NC.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL 
BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LASTING INTO THE DAY 
FRIDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION 
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ALONG AND IN 
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT... WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS 
POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR 
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS 
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER 
AND POSSIBLY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR EARLY 
NEXT WEEK.
 

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$ 

SYNOPSIS...KC 
NEAR TERM...WSS/JET 
SHORT TERM...KRD 
LONG TERM... KRD 
AVIATION...BSD/KC



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