AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA 
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE 
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE 
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 AM SUNDAY... 

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN 
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING 
NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GSO SOUNDING 
INDICATES GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT... 
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE 
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON... LEADING TO PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE NW 
AND NEAR 2 INCHES SE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... TO UPPER 80S IN THE NW 
WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS 
COMPLETELY OVERTAKE THE REGION. 

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE 
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER 
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE 
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE 
EVENING/OVERNIGHT....THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY 
NEARING THE SC/NC BORDER AFTER 18Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING 
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING 
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED 
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN 
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY 
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY 
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE 
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST 
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.  

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER 
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE 
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT/DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED 
TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST...THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL 
APPALACHIANS WED AND VA/NC WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE 
TROUGH --FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST-- 
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND ULTIMATELY MAY GET TRAPPED BENEATH AN 
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR...HOWEVER...IF 
THE CLOSED LOW WILL INDEED GET TRAPPED BENEATH IN REX BLOCK FASHION 
OR INSTEAD BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW FORECAST 
TO EVOLVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST - A PROCESS STARTED BY THE 
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS NC 
WED NIGHT. 

BEFOREHAND...A LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND 
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS NC IN SW FLOW 
ALOFT DURING THE NEAR TERM; AND THIS FEATURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL NC 
FROM NE TO SW AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH 
WED...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EMERGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE 
WED-WED NIGHT.

WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY REGENERATE OVER THE FAR NE GOM OR FL 
PANHANDLE...NOT NECESSARILY AS A TROPICAL ENTITY OWING TO THE 
PROXIMITY OF THE GOM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC/BAROCLINIC 
EFFECTS...ANY ASSOCIATED AFFECTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED 
MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE FLOW PATTERN OUTLINED 
ABOVE. 

AS SUCH...AFTER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF 
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION TUE-WED...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD 
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AOB CLIMO POP...AS RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW 
ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PROJECTED AFTERNOON 
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1420 METERS THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. NEAR CLIMO 
LOWS MOSTLY 65-70. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL 
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST 
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE 
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. 

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH 
PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF 
NEAR TERM...30 
SHORT TERM...CBL 
LONG TERM...26 
AVIATION...30


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