AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NC 
COAST THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRACK 
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE REGION 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...THE APPROACH OF A SUBSTANTIAL S/W LIFTING NE OUT OF THE DEEP 
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING (REFER TO LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) WILL 
CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ALONG THE NC 
COAST THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A 
STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE OFF BOTH THE GULF AND PACIFIC IS BEING 
PULLED NORTHWARD VIA A STRONG JET EXTENDING ALONG OR JUST WEST THE 
SPINE OF APPALACHIANS (190-200KTS PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS). THE 
LIFT PROVIDED ALOFT BY THE APPROACH OF THE S/W AND THE RIGHT 
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN 
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN 
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR THOUGH WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE 
RAIN HAVE OCCURRED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH HAVE 
BEEN RECORDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING/EXTENT OF RAIN...MOST 
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A SOLID HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH 
POCKETS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES LIKELY.

WILL LIKELY SEE TWO AXES OF MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION...ONE OVER THE 
PIEDMONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHILE THE OTHER 
WILL BE CLOSER TO COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE. THUS MAY 
SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIP INTENSITY IN VICINITY OF THE I-95 
CORRIDOR (GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS). 

SFC WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE 
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH 
HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE 
I-95 CORRIDOR.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTH-NE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE 
THE RAIN TAPER OFF FROM THE SW...POSSIBLY STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN 
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE MORNING...PROGRESSING INTO THE TRIAD AND 
TRIANGLE AREAS AS WELL AS FAYETTEVILLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO CURRENT TEMPS AS NLY 
FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE WILL FILTER COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION 
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMP PROFILES ALOFT ACROSS 
THE NW PIEDMONT SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION 
REGION ALTER THIS MORNING. DURING TIMES OF ENHANCED PRECIP 
INTENSITY...COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN THE RAIN BUT THIS 
OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. 

TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL BEING QUICKLY EXITING OUR 
REGION...A FAST MOVING S/W (CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY) WILL CROSS 
APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY 
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT GETS INTO THE 
BOTTOM OF THE L/W TROUGH. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH 
AVAILABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR 
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. 
NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE NOR LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION 
TO WARRANT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME SO JUST EXPECTING A 
CHILLY RAIN. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...DO BELIEVE 
PRECIP EXTENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POP 
OVER TEH FAR NORTH-NW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS 
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY...MID LEVEL S/W WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY MORNING 
WITH DWINDLING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 15Z. WLY FLOW 
BEHIND THE S/W WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH PROBABLE. THE 
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL AID TO DISSIPATE 
CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO WARM TEMPS UP A BIT. MAX 
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NW TO MID 50S SE. -WSS
 
THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK... 
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL 
YIELD A RETURN TO QUITE WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 
HOWEVER... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY 
FRIDAY NIGHT... PROBABLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THOUGH.

LOWS FRIDAY MORNING... DRIVEN BY CAA... ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE 
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED 
TO PLUMMET TO AROUND 1280 METERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. 
SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES HAVE YIELDED LOW TEMPS GENERALLY 
IN THE 20-27 DEGREE RANGE IN THE PAST AT KGSO. THUS... HAVE TRENDED 
LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE... WHICH IS THE MAV. 
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 
AROUND 1300 METERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH LOW LEVEL 
THICKNESS VALUES SOME 40 METERS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR... WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS SOME... A BIT BELOW STATISTICAL 
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 
TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY 
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 
CALM WINDS. EVEN WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA FROM 
TIME TO TIME... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE LOWS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 
TO UPPER 20S AGAIN. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC THIS 
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
IN THE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND 60S FOR SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS 
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND NUDGE INTO 
OUR AREA. HOWEVER... AS A NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK 
NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN (EAST COAST THAT IS) BORDER DURING THIS TIME 
FRAME A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO 
CENTRAL NC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW ONLY WSW IN 
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (THANKS TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S/SE 
OF THE AREA) THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK 
WITH. COMBINE THAT WITH THE FROT DROPPING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND 
INTO THE AREA... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE 
CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF 
THE FRONT. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP MONDAY MILD IN THE 60S TO AROUND 
70... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. HOWEVER... 
SOME OF THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCES SHOWS HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET 
OUT OF THE 40S ON TUESDAY NOW... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO 
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG... AROUND 
1040-1045 MB. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN 
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC 
THIS MORNING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE NC 
COAST. WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW END MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH POCKETS 
OF LIFR CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITY 
WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BE 
BLUSTERY  WITH SUSTAINED NLY WINDS 10-18 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH...ESPECIALLY AT KFAY AND KRWI. 

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AVIATION 
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW AFTER 18Z. SFC WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND BACK TO A W-NW DIRECTION WHILE CEILINGS 
WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF.

A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR NORTHERN 
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CAUSING A 
PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON...INITIATING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD 
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS 
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD 
AVIATION...WSS


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