AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 
1120 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH 
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST 
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND 
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK 
WEEK. 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED IN 
SOUTHWEST VA LIFTING NORTHEAST. MORNING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC 
HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIATION OF CUMULIFORM CLOUDINESS IS 
UNDERWAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD 
AREA ARE IN RESPONSE TO DPVA AND ARE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE TRIAD. 
SCT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER 
DESTABILIZATION INCREASES AND LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVEN 
BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN 
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL 
HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND WITH 
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE 
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER 
CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN 
THE 86 TO 92 RANGE LOOK GREAT. 

CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN 
THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 
A FEW STORMS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY TO AN END LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 
70S. BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS 
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH 
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY 
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING 
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO 
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE 
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER 
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

WED-FRI: WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TODAY'S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NE BY WED MORNING... MID 
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MID-LATE WEEK.  
THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN ALL DEPICT THIS EXPANSIVE 
FEATURE STRETCHING FROM TX/OK TO OFF THE SE COAST... AND THEY AGREE 
ON A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WITH 
TIME. HOWEVER... THEY DIFFER A BIT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND 
CENTERPOINT OF THIS RIDGE... WITH THE CANADIAN CENTERED OVER THE FAR 
SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI... A POSITION BETWEEN THE MORE EASTERLY GFS 
AND MORE WESTERLY ECMWF. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS... THIS 
RIDGE WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND 
WILL STEADILY PUSH UP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... 
FROM AROUND 5 M ABOVE NORMAL WED TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL 
FRI. GIVEN THAT WE'RE APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST TIME 
OF THE YEAR... IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH UP TEMP/HUMIDITY TO 
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN 
THE LOWER 90S WED WARMING TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S BY FRI... 
WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO MID 70S... A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP FROM 
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS... DEEP 
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW SHEAR ALONG WITH PW VALUES NEAR TO JUST 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE. EXPECT 
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED-FRI TO BE JUST UNDER CLIMATOLOGY (15-30%) 
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST... ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA 
BREEZE... AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... NEAR THE DECAYING SURFACE 
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS VA. 

SAT-SUN: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED 
WESTWARD TO TX/OK BY THE WEEKEND... AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER 
NC WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP ESE ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC. 
ONE PRONOUNCED WAVE IN PARTICULAR SKIRTS ACROSS VA AND FAR NE NC 
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF. AND WITH THE 
RIDGE CENTER LIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD DRIFT TO NM/FOUR CORNERS 
REGION BY SUN... ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES APPEAR LIKELY TO CROSS 
VA/NC SUN AS WELL. CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE MAY TRIM A 
COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR NORTH AND 
EAST... BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE-NORMAL THICKNESSES YIELDING HIGHS OF 90-95... HOTTEST IN THE 
SW CWA. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP 
LAYER SHEAR... WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO 20-40%... MAINLY ACROSS THE 
NORTH/EAST. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...

A COUPLE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 
IMPACTING KGSO/KINT...AND THE OTHER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IMPACTING 
KRWI...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY 12-13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
BY 15Z.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILIGS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KRDU AND 
KFAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY 
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE 
NORTHEAST.  WHILE A THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AT EASTERN 
TERMINALS...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN A SMALL TIME 
FRAME...SO VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF.  ALL ACTIVITY 
IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00-03Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THIS 
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON STORMS TO MAINLY ISOLATED 
COVERAGE.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE THIS WEEK.

&&
 
..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22 
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD 
AVIATION..22


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