AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
307 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY... 
MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH 
THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...

MOST TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING IN CENTRAL NORTH 
CAROLINA AS OF THIS WRITING UNDER A CLEAR SKY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THE AIR MASS WILL 
BE DRY WITH THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 
UNDER 0.2 INCH AND FORECAST K INDICES THROUGH THE DAY WELL NEGATIVE. 
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE DRY THROUGHOUT THE 
DAY...WITH SOME THIN UPSTREAM CIRRUS POSSIBLE LATE. NORTHERLY WINDS 
WILL BACK DURING THE DAY...WITH A FEW MODEST GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS 
AFTERNOON AND THEN MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 1 AND TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER 
AND THE TRIAD. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BELOW 
GUIDANCE...BUT WITH GOOD SUN AND A BACKING WIND WILL FORECAST HIGHS 
MOSTLY A BLEND OR LEANING TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV...FOR MAXES 
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...COOLEST IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN 
WHERE THICKNESSES ARE LOWER...AND HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST 
PIEDMONT WHERE A COUPLE OF UPPER 50S MAY OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...

THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES REGARDING THE 
TIMING OF MOISTURE AND LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY MONDAY MORNING. 
THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BUT A REVIEW OF THE BUFR 
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE MAIN WINDOW OF ANY PRECIPITATION LIES 
FROM ABOUT 10Z TO 16Z OR SO. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS THE 
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110KT 300MB JET AND A 70KT 500MB JET 
MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. 850MB THETA-E RIDGING IS PRESENT AS WELL BY 
ABOUT 12Z MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY QUICK TROUGHING MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS 
AND NAM QPF ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP ARW SUGGESTS A BAND OF 
SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA VERY LATE 
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE POPS ARE NEAR OR AT 
CATEGORICAL...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY WITH 
THOSE CHANCES FALLING QUICKLY AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS 
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER AND MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 2KM 
DOES NOT REGISTER WITH LIFTED INDICES ABOVE 0C. ALSO...PARTIAL 
THICKNESSES AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID...IN 
ADDITION TO THE ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS. 
ANTICIPATE ABOUT A TENTH-INCH OF QPF IN GENERAL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S BEFORE STABILIZING 
AND POSSIBLY RISING A TOUCH LATE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES 
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OR SO OF 
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 35 PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT 
WITH SOME INCREASING WIND AND DRY AIR NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN 
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY DURATION FOR ANY FROST...ESPECIALLY 
WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER A 
LITTLE LONGER. THE COLD FRONT LIKELY DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL 
LATE MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE THEN PROVIDED 
DIMINISHING CLOUDS TAKE PLACE AS ANTICIPATED. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES 
WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND THAT WILL BE THE 
FORECAST FOR HIGHS MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 37 TO 41.

&&
 
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS 
THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...THEN A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST-FROPA HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT 
WILL BE LOW IMPACT SEASONABLE WEATHER BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS 65-70 
AND LOWS 40-45. 

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 
MISS VALLEY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC 
REGIONS ON THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS 
EARLY THURSDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND AS THE FLOW TURNS TO THE 
SW...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS WAA ENSUES. THE ECMWF IS WETTER 
AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH THE WAA...WHILE THE GFS 
WEAKENS THE WAVE AND IS DRIER. MODELS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO 
FRIDAY...REGARDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GFS IS FASTER AND BRINGS THE 
FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN 
INCREASING...BY LATE DAY FRIDAY. THERES STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR 
TIMING DIFFERENCES TO BE WORKED OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE TAKE-AWAY 
SHOULD BE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK. 
LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES 
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME - HIGHS IN 70S BOTH DAYS AND 
LOWS IN THE MID 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
AS OF 155 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD WITH 
NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THIS 
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10KT OR 
LESS...WITH A FEW BRIEF GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY 
AND MAINLY TOWARD THE TRIAD. BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...A 
BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE 
NORTHWEST VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD 
FRONT. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE 
BAND OF SHOWERS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PREDOMINANT CEILING 
TYPE WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LOW MVFR. CEILINGS IMPROVE 
QUICKLY TO VFR AGAIN WEST-TO-EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEHIND THE 
BAND OF SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH 
A CURRENT LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH A 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND A LITTLE BETTER 
PROBABILITY OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST 
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH ARE LISTED BELOW.
     
    RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE  

GSO    20-1966

RDU    20-1966

FAY    24-1982

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT 
SUNDAY FOR NCZ028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF 
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH



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