AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 
714 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS 
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS 
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE 
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS 
TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE 
SATURDAY. RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN 
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY... DPVA 
ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE CONFINED 
ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED BY RAPID 
COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY ON THE 
GSO RAOB.
 
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE 
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE 
AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES 
OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH 
HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR 
TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR 'AVERAGE' FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 
GENERALLY 40-45. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT 
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST 
SUBSIDENCE AND H5 HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL 
REINFORCE THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION... 
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. 
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM 
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT A 
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 72-75F. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL 
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL 
LOW DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN. 
THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS 
SAT NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT... 
FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED...AND LOWS WILL MOST 
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE ABSENCE OF A 1-3 HR 
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
AS OF 302 PM FRIDAY...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 
THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE 
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR FRIDAY. 

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC 
SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A MEAN 
WESTERLY FLOW MEAN DRYING AND WARMING FOR CENTRAL NC. HIGHS SHOULD 
PUSH OR SURPASS 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN AND 
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY... THEN SHOULD MAX 
OUT TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY SOME MID 80S. THESE READINGS 
SHOULD BE CLOSE... BUT NOT QUITE AT THE DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 
28... WHICH ARE 86... 86... AND 87 AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY (ALL 
RECORDED IN 1919. 

SLIGHT COOLING WILL BEGIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS 
SHOULD STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80 AGAIN IN THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SW FLOW AT 10-15 MPH. 
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE "BACKDOOR" FRONT. CAUTION IS 
ADVISED ON THE EXTENT SOUTHWARD THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN 
THE MODEL FORECASTS OF A FAIRLY "WEAK' SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH 
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD... DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT 
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY STALL WEST TO EAST ACROSS NC... 
AND THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH IF THE CURRENT MODELS VERIFY WITH THE 
LACK OF PUSH OF CAA WITH THE 1016-1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE 
FRONT.

REGARDLESS... THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT 
RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT... AND IT SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD 
QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS A NEW STORM TRACKS NEAR THE 
GREAT LAKES. THIS MEAN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE 
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC LATE 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK 
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD 
FOLLOW THE FRONT... BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EVEN BEHIND 
THIS FRONT AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL NOT GET PUSHED TO OUR 
LATITUDE YET. 

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 
AS OF 714 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL 
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED 
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE 
AREA...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 4-8 KTS DURING THE DAY 
SATURDAY. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT 
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. 
-VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KC/VINCENT


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