marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 435 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
A developing Nor'easter will likely impact the waters beginning Fri, and persisting into upcoming weekend. This potentially significant low pressure system could spread gale to even storm force winds to portions of the offshore waters by Fri night into the weekend. Please closely follow the latest opc and coastal WFO marine forecasts over the next few days. Until then, there remains a good chance for marginal gales over the outer northern nt2 waters, or zones anz905 and 910 Tue night with the passage of a cold front.
The overall global models are in decent agreement through through before differing widely with the upcoming system during the weekend. Until then the best chance for gales will occur Tue night. Gales are also marginally possible in cold air advection across the Gulf of Maine Wed and Wed night. The ECMWF is the most bullish, while the gradient from the GFS is weaker. The system affecting the region this weekend will be a very challenging forecast to say the least. The ECMWF has been consistently too fast, while the GFS shears some energy off to the east Sat night into Sunday. I decided to lean on wpc guidance as much as possible for the medium range period. Fri though Sat I was able to use the GFS, while blending with the prior grids for some continuity. After 00z sun I populated with the official grids, which is close to wpc track of system.
Seas...both the wna and wam were initialized well. I used a blend of the wam and old grids early on, while during the weekend system I relied more on the wna.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...There will be no significant positive surge events over the region for the next few days. There is an increasing potential for a significant positive surge event developing se and then mid-Atlantic coast later in the week. Please closely monitor the latest opc and coastal WFO forecasts over the next few days.
.Nt1 New England waters... .anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale possible Saturday night. .Anz810...South of New England... gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. .Anz815...South of Long Island... gale possible Saturday.
.Nt2 mid-Atlantic waters... .anz820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale possible Saturday. .Anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale possible Saturday. .Anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale possible Friday night into Saturday. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale Tuesday night. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale Tuesday night. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. .Anz825...Inner waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light... gale possible Friday night into Saturday. .Anz828...Inner waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light... gale possible Friday night into Saturday. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale possible Friday night into Saturday. .Anz830...Inner waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... gale possible Friday night. .Anz833...Inner waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear... gale possible Friday into Friday night. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale possible Friday into Friday night. .Anz835...Inner waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale possible Friday into Friday night. .Anz935...Outer waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale possible Friday.
.Forecaster Shaw. Ocean prediction center.