marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017
Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
...Gulf of Mexico...
weak cold front extends SW across northern FL to near 29n86w where it becomes stationary, and continues NW while dissipating across the N central coastal waters and coastal plains. Expect the cold segment to drift S to about 27n tonight,and gradually dissipate on Tue into Wed.
An inverted thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula during the late afternoons into the early evening hours, and move W-NW during the overnight hours, and dissipate over the SW Gulf by late each morning through Wed evening. Expect an E-se wind shift along the trough. An inverted trough is expected to meander from near bro TX to the Western Bay of Campeche early this week. These low level troughs are currently interacting with an upper cyclone near 24n94w, resulting in sct ts over the SW Gulf waters. Outside of the convection, expect light northerly winds to SW of the trough. Otherwise light to moderate return flow forecast through Tue. The pressure gradient will tighten on Tue night, with moderate to fresh se return flow developing over the W Gulf and spreading E across the central Gulf waters, with little change then forecast through Fri. Strong E winds expected along the N coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thu and Fri evenings.
...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...
A tropical wave along 84w will continue W across the Gulf of Honduras tonight accompanied by a brief NE-E fresh wind shift. A second tropical over the E Caribbean is accompanied by isol rw/ts. Strong E trades, and seas to 10 ft, are expected across most of the central Caribbean tonight, with a band of these strong E winds spreading W across the waters from 13n to 16n to the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua by early Wed, all to the N of the monsoon trough that will meander from W to E across the SW Caribbean this week.
A tropical wave is analyzed E of the area to the S of 14n along 44w. This wave should reach the windwards on Tue night. The wave is preceded by a large area of desert dust that is expected to reduce the surface vsby to 3 to 5 nm, and thus is reflected in the weather grids.
..SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...
An E to W ridge extends from 31n65w to 28n69w, and a weak cold front extends from 31n80w to 29n81w. Expect the front to stall briefly this evening, then move E again late tonight, reaching from 31n72w to ft. Pierce FL late Tue night, then stall again from just W of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas on Wed, with the remnants drifting W and gradually dissipating on Wed night and Thu.
Light to moderate southerly flow expected ahead of the front, and light to locally moderate northerly winds are forecast behind the front. Light to locally moderate se return flow expected everywhere to the N of 23n by Thu night. Moderate to fresh easterly trades expected to the S of the ridge, except increasing to a strong breeze along the N coast of Hispaniola and the Atlc approach to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons into early evenings.
.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:
.Gulf of Mexico... None.
.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... none.
.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... None.
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php
For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine
.Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.