marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 708 PM PDT Wed Jun 20 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
No changes are planned for the evening update. The 18z GFS and NAM both are very close to the previous 12z runs, and also very close to the 12z ECMWF/UKMET and Canadian Gem. The main concern is from Friday night through Saturday night as the trough along the northern and central California coast intensifies which will result in a period over gales over the northern and central California waters, and current forecast has this covered well. The 00z sea state analysis indicated that the observed seas matched up well with the enp forecast values.
----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...
There was an ascat pass at 1714z with a swath only over the srn CA waters E of 123w. Max winds were to 20 kt along 120w and W where data was available.
High pres remains centered to the W of the CA waters while a coastal trof was along the central and srn areas of CA early this afternoon. Models remain consistent with the coastal trof gradually intensifying and expanding N along the N CA coast through Thu night, and strengthening through Sat night as high pressure builds in from the W and NW through Mon night. Strongest winds along the inner srn CA waters this afternoon will expand N along CA tonight and into Thu night and persist while strengthening to gale force over the offshore waters by later Sat and Sat night. Will continue to favor the GFS for grids, although will make some some adjustments Sat night to match up with the UKMET which is somewhat stronger with the pressure gradient that develops along the inner waters of the central and nrn CA waters.
.Seas...Will be using the wwiii enp through the forecast period with the ECMWF wam similar with Max seas that develop along the innner waters of CA.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale possible Saturday night. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Friday night.
.Forecaster kosier/Rowland. Ocean prediction center.