fxak67 pajk 221402 

Southeast Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska 
602 am akdt Thu Mar 22 2018 

Short term...upper level and surface low pressure east-southeast of haida 
gwaii will linger in the area through Thursday then slowly 
continue southward on Friday. The low to the south and high 
pressure to the north is causing a tight pressure gradient over 
the northern Inner Channels and thus (late season) strong outflow 
winds. Overnight, winds through Lynn Canal increased to 50kt 
storm force with gusts of 65kt. Similar gusts are occurring out of 
Cross Sound. Downtown Juneau saw gusts of 60-70kt overnight and 
even a brief power outage. Expect these outflow winds to continue 
through most of today then gradually ease tonight as the pressure 
gradient slackens with the low moving away. 

The lingering low is spreading showers over the southern Panhandle 
up to Port Alexander this morning and these are expected to 
continue intermittently through Friday in the form of rain bands. 
Some mixing with snow is possible during the early morning and 
overnight hours, but mainly at inland/upper elevation locations 
such as the roads crossing POW Island. Offshore flow and downslope 
drying will keep the northern half of the Panhandle dry through 
the period. Temperatures remained quite warm overnight due to 
strong outflow winds keeping things mixed along with downslope 
effects. Have increased temperatures several degrees, especially 
in the windy/downslope areas, some places may even approach the 
50f mark today. On Friday, offshore flow will continue over the 
northern 2/3 of the region with even more sunshine. Although 
temperatures aloft are looking cooler and there will not be as 
strong of downslope forcing, still expecting highs in the lower to 
mix 40s. 

Primarily the namnest was used for adjustments to winds, including 
extending them a bit longer. Used an ensemble approach to increase 
the showers over the southern Panhandle, but there is lower 
confidence in where/when any particular band will pass over. 

Long term.../Saturday through Wednesday/ expect a pattern change 
to occur in the extended forecast. The extended forecast begins 
dry with a weak surface low pressure system over the north central 
Gulf and a much stronger surface low in the Bering Sea. The low 
over the central Gulf will have minimal impacts on southeast ak; however, 
the low in the Bering Sea will send a weather front eastward over 
the Gulf, bringing wet weather back between Sunday night and 
early Monday morning. Initial precipitation may fall in the form 
of snow especially over the northern Panhandle. However, warm air 
will be advected with this system, which will quickly cause a 
changeover to a purely rain system. The exception may be along the 
Haines and Klondike highways where temperatures may stay cool 
enough to support snow through the period. This will begin a wet 
pattern that persists into the middle next week. 

A fair amount of changes were made in the long term. Winds were 
increased along the front between Sunday and Monday. Currently no 
gale fore winds are forecasted; however, models are trending 
intensification of this system. Additionally, models are being 
fairly aggressive with precipitation totals associated with the 
front, if the trend continues, periods of heavy rain likely to 
occur with this system. Temperatures were another area of change. 
Started to trend temperatures upward and thus snow levels; 
specific detail was paid to the Sunday and Monday timeframe in 
order to best disseminate rain and snow. Model agreement is above 
average in the long term leading to increased forecast confidence. 
Primary guidance was a blend of the European model (ecmwf) and GFS through Monday 
morning with new wpc guidance used beyond that timeframe. 


Ajk watches/warnings/advisories... 
public...High Wind Warning until 4 PM akdt this afternoon for akz025. 
Strong wind through this evening for akz018-019. 
Strong wind through this afternoon for akz021. 
Marine...Storm Warning for pkz012-013. 
Gale Warning for pkz021-022-031-032-043-051. 
Small Craft Advisory for pkz011-033>035-041-042-053. 



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