000 
fxak67 pajk 231419 
afdajk 


Southeast Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska 
619 am akdt Mon Oct 23 2017 


Short term.../through Tuesday night/developing low will move NE 
across the central Panhandle late this afternoon and evening. 
Another low will move NE across Dixon Entrance by Tue evening. 
Current forecast was handling these features well so did not need 
to make any significant changes. 


Main issues with first low will be heavy rain and strong winds. 
Most of this will be over the southern Panhandle and southeast Gulf to 
the S of the low track. Have gales for much of that marine area 
with strong wind headlines for zones 27 and 28. Areas on north side of 
low track will have a mainly offshore wind but it will not be 
overly strong. Could see some locally heavy rain over the central 
Panhandle as deformation zone moves in. Was a bit concerned that 
this heavy precip could cause a snowmelt cooling event in some 
areas over the north but it appears that the airmass will initially be 
too warm for that to occur. Once low moves inland tonight, precip 
should diminish. 


Along the NE Gulf Coast through tonight, a small low will remain 
offshore with a couple of mid-level vort maxima moving through. 
One of these vort features triggered a couple of thunderstorms over the NE 
Gulf, but this threat will diminish as temps aloft warm from the 
S. Otherwise will see mainly scattered showers for that area. 


Second low moving NE toward Dixon Entrance will bring more rain 
to the southern area Tue into Tue night, while the north sees precip 
threat diminish due to some offshore flow. Not expecting any 
strong winds in the southern Panhandle as main wind threat will 
stay over hecate Strait and haida gwaii on S side of low track. 


Long term.../Wednesday through Monday as of 10pm Sunday/the 
extended forecast begins with a low pressure system crossing from 
the southern Panhandle into Canada. A drying trend is expected 
early in the extended forecast between Wednesday and Thursday with 
minimal shower activity as a weak ridge of high pressure builds. 
Between Thursday and Friday a low pressure system west of the 
Aleutians will send a front northward across the Gulf. While 
confidence is lower with timing and location of this front, 
moisture associated with it is of tropical origin, which could set 
up another atmospheric river scenario for Southeast Alaska. This will 
pave the way for a wet weekend across Southeast Alaska. 


Little change was made beyond Friday in the extended forecast. 
Ensemble forecast members and operational models still carry 
large discrepancies moving into the weekend. Tuesday's forecast 
was altered to shift the low's location over the southern 
Panhandle which transitioned into the start of the extended 
forecast using the European model (ecmwf). Winds were increased around this low; 
however, winds underneath the ridge on Thursday were decreased 
over the Inner Channels and Panhandle. 


$$ 


&& 


Ajk watches/warnings/advisories... 
public...strong wind from 1 PM akdt this afternoon through this evening 
for akz027-028. 
Marine...Gale Warning for pkz035-036-041>043. 
Small Craft Advisory for pkz012-022-031>034-052. 
Small Craft Advisory due to seas for pkz051. 


&& 


$$ 



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