000 
fxak67 pajk 191310 
afdajk 


Southeast Alaska forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Juneau Alaska 
510 am akdt Thu Jul 19 2018 


Short term...satellite imagery and surface analysis indicate 
upper low moving east across haida gwaii early this morning with 
ridge building over the Gulf. Some clearing overnight 
combined with saturated bl from recent rains has resulted in some 
patchy fog development early this morning. Heaviest fog has been 
in papg and pawg with visibilities below 1sm. Expect fog to 
dissipate by mid morning. Energy wrapping around the upper low 
will maintain shower activity across the Panhandle today. 
Increased instability near the low along with some energy wrapping 
around will increase chances of thunderstorm development over British Columbia that 
could migrate wwd into Misty Fjords area so added mention of schc 
thunderstorm this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, showers will diminish from 
north-S today as the ridge influence increases across the region. As 
the ridge begins to take hold nwly winds will increase. Nudged 
temps towards nbm resulting in temps into the mid 60s today and 
into the low to mid 70s Fri except along the outer coast. Stratus 
evident over the Gulf will advect east-southeast into the weekend and will 
likely limit warming potential along the Gulf Coast. 


Long term.../Thursday through next Tuesday/ the main change 
to the forecast resulted from a more eastward positioned ridge 
axis over the eastern Gulf instead of the central Gulf. Perhaps 
the ridge breaks into the Panhandle sometime early to mid next 
week, but solutions differ, and all we can rely on is ensemble 
clustering at this Point. New model runs continue to suggest 
frontal action becomes more organized to our west but confidence 
is not high enough to go with any more than a slight chance of 
rain by mid-week. 


As a result of this, we continued the trend of raising 
temperatures early next week, and now extend 70 degrees to the 
Panhandle interior through at least Monday. We even warmed 
temperatures a degree or two through the already advertised toasty 
weekend. 


Winds needed little change except to introduce southeasterlies 
over the Gulf on the west side of the ridge axis. We would not be 
shocked at some point to see small craft westerlies develop at 
ocean entrances should the interior heat and chilly Gulf stratus 
provide solid pressure gradient support. But otherwise, we expect 
winds to be mainly on the lighter side. 


We used an ensemble of mainline models for the Gulf winds Saturday 
and relied on increasing influence of wpc thereafter. No changes 
to the weekend's dry forecast and our conservative approach keeps 
most of the Panhandle pop free through most of Tuesday. Forecast 
confidence is good through the weekend, and diminishes early to 
mid next week. 


&& 


Hydrology...as of 4 am Thursday...suicide basin continues to 
release water into Mendenhall Lake. Webcam imagery indicates 
suicide basin continues to drain and at 3 am Mendenhall Lake was 
at 8.39 feet and rising. Flood stage at the lake is 9.0 feet. 
There is the potential for flooding to begin by late Thursday 
morning, and it is expected to reach a near record peak stage of 
around 12 feet Thursday night into early Friday morning. Water 
levels should fall rapidly after it crests. However, there is 
uncertainty in the initial Glacial Lake volume, which may result 
in varying crest height and timing. 


Once the lake stage reaches 9.1 feet, water will cover West 
Glacier spur Road between skater's cabin and the West Glacier 
trailhead. Also, water will flow into the Mendenhall Lake 
campground. Once the lake stage reaches 10.9 feet, view drive will 
be flooded and impassible with significant flooding to some homes 
in the area. 


&& 


Ajk watches/warnings/advisories... 
public...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Friday afternoon for 
akz025. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for pkz041. 


&& 






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