000 
fxus61 kaly 221946 
afdaly 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York 
346 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will move from the Great Lakes to New England 
this weekend bringing fair weather and seasonably cool 
temperatures. A storm system moving from the western Great Lakes 
through eastern Canada will bring a chance of rain from late 
Monday night through Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
another dirty surface high has settled across the area. 
Although the high pressure system centered over Michigan is 
trying to bring fair weather, high clouds are streaming over US 
from a storm system over the Southern Plains and lower 
Mississippi Valley. This has been a recurring theme of late. 
Satellite imagery shows very little southerly progress of the 
clearing that lies to our north across eastern Canada. These 
high clouds will regulate low temperatures tonight. With current 
dew points in the 30s and 40s, areas that clear will drop into 
the 30s and 40s overnight, while areas that keep the clouds will 
only drop into the 50s. No precipitation forecast tonight. 


&& 


Short term /Sunday through Monday night/... 
on Sunday morning, high pressure will ridge across the area from 
Michigan to New Hampshire. A secondary cold front will lie along 
the U.S. Canadian border. Dry weather is expected to continue 
on Sunday even as the moisture starved cold front pushes south 
into the northern half of the forecast area. There will likely 
be some clouds associated with this front across the southern 
Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga region. There may also be 
lingering high clouds across southern areas similar to today. 
Highs on Sunday generally in the 60s with 50s in the higher 
terrain. Sunday night, the cold front pushes through the 
remainder of the area on northeasterly winds with high pressure 
building over Maine. Lows Monday morning in the 30s across the 
southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont with 40s elsewhere. 
Monday looks fair, dry and cool with easterly flow around the 
high just east of Maine. Highs on Monday from the 50s in the 
hill towns to 60s in the valleys. 


A warm front approaches late Monday night bringing the threat of 
rain to the region which should hold off until after midnight 
Monday night. Lows Monday night will be milder as clouds and 
rain move in. Expect low temperatures to be in the 40s to lower 
50s. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Friday/... 
the long term forecast period will feature multiple rounds of rain 
and breezy conditions at times as multiple waves of energy and 
fronts progress through the region. 


A warm front will lift north through the region on Tuesday bringing 
rain and breezy conditions along with it. A strong pressure gradient 
at 850 hpa will be over head due high pressure off the East Coast 
and low pressure over the Great Lakes region. A low-level jet with 
winds of 40-50 knots will be over head and forecast soundings 
suggest potential mixing of some of that wind down to the surface. 
The strongest winds will be over the higher terrain with gusts over 
30 mph possible. Forecast highs are in the upper 50s to mid 60s but 
could be cooler depending on cloud cover and timing of the rain. 


A robust cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday so 
there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Instability 
looks meager at this time and will be highly dependent on the amount 
of cloud cover over the region. Ample moisture will be in place with 
the possibility of remnant tropical moisture merging with the 
approaching front. Rain could be heavy at times into early Thursday 
morning and guidance is suggesting the potential for multiple inches 
of rain across the region, but the placement is of much uncertainty. 
The warmest temperatures of the week should be on Wednesday as we 
will be in the warm sector with southwest flow ahead of the 
approaching low. Highs will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s. 


Brief ridging and high pressure will move into the region on 
Thursday keeping conditions dry in northern locations. Guidance is 
suggesting coastal development of a weak wave Thursday into Friday 
while a cold front associated with a clipper-like system will 
approach from the northwest Friday into Saturday. Therefore chances 
for rain will continue into the weekend. Highs Thursday through 
Saturday will generally be in the 60s with lows in the upper 40s to 
mid 50s. 


&& 


Aviation /19z Saturday through Thursday/... 
high pressure will build across the taf sites from the Great 
Lakes region through tonight. 


There are scattered clouds between 3000-5000 feet but intervals 
of broken ceilings at kpsf. The clouds should stay above 3000 
feet this afternoon and then most of the clouds in the 3000-5000 
foot layer will dissipate by evening. High clouds above 10000 
feet will continue this evening but then the high clouds are 
expected to move out by or after midnight. 


A clear sky with calm to nearly calm winds will allow 
temperatures to reach dewpoints, both of which will be cooler 
than the water in rivers, lakes and swamps. So, including some 
fog at kgfl and kpsf between 08z-13z with MVFR visibilities and 
a few clouds around 200 feet. Including some bcfg at kalb and 
kpou not knowing if enough river fog will form to drift into 
those areas. After 13z VFR conditions with just scattered clouds 
and no visibility restrictions. 


Northwest winds at 8-15 kt with gusts of up to 20 kt early this 
afternoon will gradually decrease, and veer into the north to 
northeast by later this afternoon with speeds of 5-10 knots. Winds 
will become light/variable around sunset and continue 
overnight, becoming locally calm at times. Winds will be light 
and variable through Sunday morning. 


Outlook... 


Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig weather. 
Monday: no operational impact. No sig weather. 
Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers. 
Tuesday: high operational impact. Likely rain showers. 
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Likely rain showers. 
Wednesday: high operational impact. Likely rain showers...tsra. 
Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers. 
Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
high pressure will move from the Great Lakes to New England 
this weekend bringing fair weather and seasonably cool 
temperatures. A storm system moving from the western Great Lakes 
through eastern Canada will bring a chance of rain from late 
Monday night through Wednesday. 


Relative humidity values will recover to 70 to 90 percent 
tonight, and drop to 30 to 55 percent on Sunday. Relative 
humidity values will recover to 75 to 100 percent on Monday 
morning. 


Winds will be northwest at 10 to 20 mph today, light and variable 
tonight and on Sunday. On Sunday night, winds will increase to 
5-10 mph from the northeast. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
fair and seasonably cool weather is expected for the weekend 
into early next week. The next chance of rain will be from late 
Monday night into Wednesday night. There is the potential for 1 
to 3 inches of rain during that period. At this time, extended 
river forecast models show no flooding is forecast, but some 
half to three quarter bank full rises are possible. 


For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including 
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please 
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs 
on our website. 


&& 


Aly watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
Vermont...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...sand 
near term...sand 



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations
Back to forecast page
Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)

Units: English | Metric

Find the Weather for any City, State or Zipcode, or Country:

U.S. State List | Severe Weather | Tropical Storms | Ski Conditions
United States | Canada | Central America | South America | Asia | Europe | Australia | Africa | Islands

Weather Underground

© Copyright 2018
The Weather Company, LLC