000 
fxus61 kaly 211734 
afdaly 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York 
1234 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 


Synopsis... 
low pressure will exit our region through the day today. High 
pressure will build in from the central U.S. Tonight through 
Friday night, then exit east of our region through the day 
Saturday. Low pressure tracking out of the central U.S. Will 
bring mixed precipitation to our area Saturday night that will 
change to rain Sunday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
as of 1225 PM EST, cloudy skies persist mainly north of 
I-88/I-90 with temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Latest 
visible imagery does indicate that clouds are trying to erode, 
resulting in some peaks of sunshine this afternoon, even north 
of I-88/I-90. So other than refreshing the hourly temps and sky 
cover, no changes were made to the forecast. 


Prev disc... 
as of 1000 am, surface trough is in the process of crossing the 
region, accompanied by some light showers/drizzle. Deeper mixing 
and stronger westerly winds will develop behind the passage of 
this trough, which should allow temperatures to rise despite the 
mostly cloudy skies that exist north of the Mid-Hudson valley. 
The temperature rise and the paltry coverage of precipitation 
has allowed US to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory. 
Temperatures are still tricky for this afternoon and will be 
contingent upon the amount of sun that we see, with some 
potential for higher temperatures than currently forecast if 
breaks in the cloud cover can develop this afternoon. Will also 
have the potential for 30-35 kt wind gusts this afternoon if 
sunshine and deeper mixing can develop. 


Previous discussion... 


System exits later this morning and this afternoon and west 
winds become gusty this afternoon. Satellite trends support 
guidance in terms of cloud cover persisting much of the day and 
without much sun, temperatures may not warm as much as they 
could. Some snow shower activity could extend off the lakes into 
the southern Adirondacks this afternoon. Highs in the lower to 
mid 40s but some upper 40s in southern areas where there are the 
best chances for some sun this afternoon. Highs in the mid 30s 
southern Adirondacks. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Saturday night/... 
improving sky cover tonight through Friday with considerable 
sun expected Friday. However, some more lingering lake effect 
cloudiness could hold in the southern Adirondacks. Highs Friday 
around 40 to the mid 40s but lower to mid 30s higher terrain. 


Low level ridging exits through the day Saturday as the next 
system approaches from the central U.S. And mid west. High clouds 
will increase through the day Saturday and low level warm 
advection will gradually increase. Highs Saturday in the upper 
30s to lower 40s. 


Precipitation spreads over our region Saturday night as warm 
advection, moisture advection and isentropic lift increase. 
Surface temperatures are likely to fall a little through 
Saturday evening before the precipitation begins. Then, wet 
bulb processes with the steadier precipitation will likely aid 
in temperatures falling another degree or two across the region 
later Saturday evening. Temperatures will be near or below 
freezing in many areas later Saturday evening before 
temperatures rise slowly after midnight, especially in the 
Hudson Valley and northwest CT north to the capital district. 


Still, precipitation will begin as snow or a mix in many areas 
and slowly transition through sleet to freezing rain in some 
areas but sleet to a cold rain in the Hudson Valley and northwest CT 
to capital district. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 
the long term will start out with the effects of a potential 
powerhouse storm system that will track northeast through the 
western Great Lakes Sunday-Monday, followed by progressively colder 
temperatures as models suggest strong amplification of the upper 
level pattern later next week with a deep, broad upper level trough 
developing across central/eastern Continental U.S.. 


As the initial storm system tracks into the Great Lakes region, a 
warm front will approach from the South/West Sunday, while high 
pressure slowly departs off the northern New England coast. Shallow, 
low level cold air may linger across at least northern portions of 
the region, which may allow a wintry mix, including sleet/freezing 
rain and some snow to persist into the morning hours across portions 
of the southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont. Otherwise, expect rain 
tapering to showers by late in the day. High temps Sunday may reach 
the 40s for much of the region, although cold air may remain trapped 
in some northern areas, where Max temps may only reach the 30s. Some 
50s could occur across portions of the Mid Hudson valley. 


For Sunday night-Monday, the main effects from this storm system 
will be gusty winds, which could reach advisory levels in portions 
of the region with gusts of 40-50 mph possible. Trends will continue 
to be watched closely regarding mixing depth and pressure rises, for 
the potential of these strong winds across the region. Also, lake 
effect/enhanced snow should occur downwind of Lake Ontario into 
portions of the SW Adirondacks late Sunday night into Monday, where 
localized moderate accumulations will be possible. Additional snow 
showers could extend into southern VT, with scattered snow 
showers/flurries even possible in valley areas from the Mohawk 
Valley and capital region into the Berkshires. Lows Sunday night in 
the 20s to lower 30s. Highs Monday ranging from the 20s across most 
higher elevations, to the lower/mid 30s in valley areas, except 
possibly near 40 within the Mid Hudson valley. 


Winds and lake effect/enhanced snow should gradually diminish Monday 
night, with additional snow showers possible Tuesday as an upper 
level disturbance tracks across or north of the region. Temps Monday 
night should fall into the single digits and teens for most areas, 
with highs Tuesday mainly in the teens and 20s, except 30s across 
lower elevations south of I-90. 


By next Wednesday, most 00z/21 deterministic models and ensembles 
suggest that some form of upper level energy tracks east from the 
Pacific northwest and passes through the region, with possible surface low 
development along the mid Atlantic coast. This could bring snow 
showers or even a period of steady snow to portions of the region, 
especially for the I-90 corridor and points south. Will keep chance 
pops for Wednesday. Also, it should remain cold with highs mainly in 
the 20s to lower 30s, although if widespread snow occurs through the 
day, the potential for even colder Max temps exists. Clearing and 
cold for Wednesday night, with lows in the single digits and lower 
teens. 


&& 


Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
low pressure continues to track off to the east along with 
deeper moisture. A surface trough has passed the terminals and 
allowed some of the shallower moisture to mix out such that 
mainly VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Some 
lower VFR stratus have spread back into the terminals north of 
kpou. Expect broken coverage to persist north of kpou for the rest 
of the day and perhaps into the night. Cigs may dip to MVFR at 
times at kpsf. A few sprinkles cannot be ruled out, but vsby 
reductions are unlikely. By Friday morning into early 
afternoon, a bit more breaks in the clouds may appear. 


Winds this afternoon will be fairly strong from the west with 
some gusts of 20-30 kt. These gusts may persist into the early 
part of the overnight period before gradually diminishing. Winds 
Friday morning into early afternoon will become northwesterly at 
5 to 10 kt. 


Outlook... 


Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather. 
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather. 
Saturday night: high operational impact. Definite rain...sn...sleet. 
Sunday: high operational impact. Definite rain showers...ra. 
Sunday night: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of rain showers...shsn. 
Monday: moderate operational impact. Windy with gusts to 37.0 isolated shsn. 


&& 


Hydrology... 
hydrological impacts are not expected through at least Saturday. 


Another period of rain or mixed precipitation is possible 
Saturday night into Sunday. 


For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed 
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the 
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our 
website. 


&& 


Aly watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
New York...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
Vermont...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...NAS 



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