fxus61 kaly 150605 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York 
105 am EST Thu Nov 15 2018 

unseasonably and potentially record cold temperatures are 
expected tonight with high pressure taking control of the 
region. We continue to closely monitor a low pressure system for 
Thursday night into Friday which could bring both snow and ice 
accumulations to the region. 


Near term /through today/... 
as of 1015 PM EST...canopy of thin cirrus/cs per satellite imagery 
was streaming across the night sky across most of the County Warning Area. 
Temperatures and dewpoints continue to drop with portions of the 
dacks into the single digits (kslk was -1f). Current 
temperature forecast is in good shape. 00z NAM arrival as the 
remainder of the overnight period will remain dry as those high 
clouds continue to thicken with 1038mb high tracks and retreats 
to our northeast toward sunrise. 

Prev disc...heading into tonight, high pressure builds in the 
region which should help weaken the winds and lead to clearing 
skies. Thus, expecting a very cold night thanks to near ideal 
radiational cooling accompanied with very low dew points in the 
single digits. Latest hi-res guidance shows only thin cirrus 
across the region with the thicker clouds remaining well south 
of our County Warning Area. MOS guidance shows a few hours of clear in the latest 
output for ddh, alb and gfl so continued the latest forecast 
with lows in the single digits and teens throughout this area 
with even some sub-zero readings in the Adirondacks. Some more 
clouds could linger in the Mid- Hudson valley to northwest CT so still 
thinking these spots may be a tad warmer in the teens to near 
20. A quick look at record lows for Nov 15 shows we could 
challenge some records with these temperatures. 


Short term /tonight through 6 PM Friday/... 
a Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Thursday afternoon 
to Friday morning for the entire Albany County warning area... 

We continue to monitor a very potent cut off shortwave trough 
in the Tennessee Valley that looks to interact with a weak low coming 
out of the Gulf of Mexico during the day Thursday. The cut off 
low will provide increasing upper level divergence, allowing the 
low to intensify as it heads up the East Coast. A chilly air 
mass remains in place over the northeast thanks to the 1035mb 
high pressure over head. With increasing cloud coverage through 
the day ahead of the approaching coastal low, high temperatures 
Thursday likely will only each the upper 20s to near 32 over 
the Albany County warning area. 

By Thursday afternoon, the parent shortwave starts to 
weaken/open up allowing the the coastal low to become more 
organized and the dominant feature as it reaches the mid- 
Atlantic. Very strong isentropic lift on the front end of the 
approaching coastal storm along with an impressive 50 knot mid- 
level jet means the approaching precipitation shield should 
have no issues quickly overspreading the region from north to 
south. Temperatures profiles support all snow at the onset with 
surface temperatures likely dropping a few degrees to sub- 
freezing readings as snow arrives due to wet bulb processes. 
Model guidance continue to show this band being a transient type 
band as discussed in previous cstar projects. With the strong 
700-500mb fgen, this band could produce moderate to even heavy 
snow including potential 1 inch + per hour rates as it quickly 
travels from the Mid- Hudson valley up into the capital district 
and areas northward Thursday afternoon into the evening. This 
means potential impacts for the evening commute, mainly for the 
Mid- Hudson valley and possibly for parts of the capital 
district, depending on the exact speed of this initial band. 

Guidance continues to show this band moving quickly through the 
Albany County warning area Thursday evening as our coastal low continues to 
deepen off the Delmarva/New Jersey coast down to near 1000-995mb by 06z 
Friday. Newest model runs have trended a bit further south with 
the coastal low's track with it now progressing from the New Jersey 
coast eastward towards Long Island Thursday night. This means 
that the aforementioned transient band could become more of a 
pivot type band over the Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley 
allowing moderate snow to continue there with the warm sector 
extending northward into the Mid- Hudson valley/northwest CT areas. 
Still uncertain on the exact placement of this band as that will 
be determined by the exact track of the coastal low. It's 
important to note that the temperature profiles Thursday night 
in nearly all areas of the Albany County warning area show a warm nose type of 
signature around 800-700mb which would limit snow ratios to near 10 
to 1, giving US a wetter type of snow with even sleet pellets 
possible at times. 

Once the warm sector moves into the Mid-Hudson valley/northwest CT and 
the southern Berkshires towards midnight Thursday, southern 
areas may mix with and even become mainly sleet or freezing rain 
with ice accretion possible. Including ice accretion impacts 
for these areas in Winter Storm Watch. Areas in this warm sector 
could also see precipitation lighten up which many ensemble 
members support. This could increase ice accretion amounts. 

Our coastal low continues to strengthen overnight as it heads 
into coastal southern New England deepening to 990-995mb and as 
it exits, it should drag the pivot/deformation band previously 
discussed south and east through the Albany County warning area. This would 
allow a period of moderate to even heavy snow to return to areas 
that had turned lighter overnight as this bands moves through. 
Impacts to the Friday morning commute are possible as this bands 
tracks through the area Friday morning. However, it looks like 
this band should move through rather quickly since our coastal 
low quickly exits out to sea. Overall, storm total snowfall 
ranges 4 to 8 inches from the capital district/southern Vermont into 
the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley with lower amounts ranging 2 
to 4 inches in the Mid-Hudson valley/northwest CT and southern 
Berkshires due to more mixing and icing issues. 

Most areas should an end to the steady snow by late a.M/early 
afternoon Friday from northwest to southeast with temperatures 
Friday warming up into the mid to upper 30s. However, the lull 
in precipitation behind the departing coastal low looks brief 
as a weakening clipper looks to exit the Great Lakes into 
southern Canada bringing enhanced lake effect/upslope driven 
snow to the southern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and 
perhaps the southern greens Friday evening into Friday night. 
Overnight lows Friday should only drop a few degrees, remaining 
in the upper low 30s for most spots (upper 20s for higher 


Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/... 
an unsettled and cool pattern setting up through the long term 
period as the weekend will likely feature occasional cloud coverage 
along with the threat for light snow or snow showers. While a 
surface high will transverse the region, in the mid and upper levels 
will feature a broad west-southwest flow with rather high h850-500 
relative humidity fields. The best chance for snow and mainly afternoon rain 
showers will be downwind of the lake and west of the Hudson at this 
time. Precip amounts look to be rather light across those areas 
that do get some precipitation due to the aforementioned surface 
ridge and no strong low level forcing. 

Short wave embedded within the long wave trough approaches the 
Central Plains and Midwest Sunday night into Monday. This should 
bring about a weak surface wave to track close to the region with 
the chance for some light snow. Again, weak features as precip 
amounts look to be light but could cause travel issues into Monday 

This wave tracks quickly east leaving behind a broad and moist 
northwest flow regime with the threat for additional snow and rain 
showers. However, thermal profiles per the global models are 
trending colder into early next week so most of the precip outside 
of Lower Valley locations should fall in the form of snow showers. 

Temperatures throughout this period will continue below normal 
thresholds with average highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 
20s (the warmest day looks to be Saturday with lower half of the 
40s for valley locations). 


Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/... 
thick cirrus shield will remain across the region overnight with 
light and variable to calm winds with a surface high drifting 
directly over the region. A coastal low has begun to develop 
along the southeast coast. This low will rapid deepen Thursday 
as it heads northeastward up the East Coast and will bring 
widespread wintry precipitation to the area. Snow will 
overspread the area late in the day into the early evening with 
conditions quickly dropping to IFR. It will remain cold enough 
for all snow kgfl and kalb through 06z/Friday. However, warmer 
air is expected to work in with a changeover to sleet and 
freezing rain expected at kpou and kpsf during the evening. 

Light/variable to calm winds overnight with a light easterly flow 
developing Thursday. Winds will shift more northerly in the evening 
as the coastal low approaches. Low level wind shear may be needed 
for kpou and kpsf by Thursday evening however confidence is not 
high enough to include in the tafs at this time. 


Friday: high operational impact. Definite rain showers...ra...sn. 
Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather. 
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather. 
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather. 
Sunday: no operational impact. No sig weather. 
Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of snow. 
Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...shsn. 


Fire weather... 
unseasonably cold weather through tonight with lake effect snow 
diminishing. A system will bring widespread wintry 
precipitation to the region Thursday afternoon into Friday. 


mainly dry weather is expected through tonight aside from some 
lingering lake effect snow. A low pressure system will bring 
widespread wintry precipitation to the region Thursday afternoon 
into Friday. The precipitation may become rain or freezing rain 
especially from the capital district south Thursday night into 
Friday morning. Quantitative precipitation forecast ranges from around 0.60 to 1.30 inches, with 
the heaviest amounts over the Mid Hudson valley, Litchfield 
County, and the Berkshires where rivers are already running 
high. Flooding on the main Stem rivers is not expected, but some 
urban and poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out due to the 
saturated ground. 


Aly watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Friday 
afternoon for ctz001-013. 
New York...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Friday 
afternoon for nyz032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066- 
Massachusetts...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Friday 
afternoon for maz001-025. 
Vermont...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Friday 
afternoon for vtz013>015. 


near term...frugis/bgm/speciale 
short term...speciale 

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