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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 


Short term... 
through tonight. 


High clouds continue to blanket central Alabama, but have 
gradually thinned out across the northern counties. There will 
be a window later tonight and into early Wednesday morning when 
cirrus clears out, which is why guidance is likely showing cooler 
temperatures Wednesday morning than occurred this morning. The air 
mass is still very dry, which will help with radiational cooling. 


58/rose 




Long term... 
Wednesday through Tuesday. 


Ridging builds in across most of the eastern Continental U.S. Wednesday ahead 
of a trough sliding through The Rockies. The trough picks up the 
remnant energy from Hurricane Willa and lifts the now shortwave 
energy through southern Texas and into the northern Gulf of Mexico by 
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A surface low forms early 
Thursday and is expected to push eastward along the Gulf Coast 
Thursday into Friday, increasing rain chances for central Alabama. Models 
have come into good agreement on the overall timing of this system, 
so i've trended pops upward, closer to the 80-90% range, for the 
southern half of our area. 


The main longwave trough remains over the eastern Continental U.S. For several 
days, and at least two more shortwaves dip into the Gulf states 
before we get into early next week. The first of these comes 
Saturday evening into early Sunday as an upper low digs through the 
Ohio River valley and into the central Appalachians. Expect early 
Saturday to be mostly rain-free, but chances increase through the 
afternoon and evening as the shortwave axis moves through. 


Sunday should remain mostly dry ahead of the 2nd shortwave that 
follows a similar track to the previous one. However, moisture 
return ahead of this one is more limited, and guidance keeps most of 
the energy to our north and west, so I have held off adding 
mentionable pops in the forecast for early next week. 


25/Owen 


&& 


Aviation... 
18z taf discussion. 


VFR conds thru the period. No cig or vsby issues due to dry air 
mass below below 5000 feet agl. 


58/rose 




&& 


Fire weather... 


Much cooler and drier weather is expected for the first half of 
this week. The next chance for rain builds in on Thursday. There 
are no fire weather concerns at this time. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 41 69 47 57 47 / 0 0 0 70 70 
Anniston 44 71 51 57 48 / 0 0 0 70 70 
Birmingham 45 70 52 58 50 / 0 0 0 80 70 
Tuscaloosa 45 72 54 59 51 / 0 0 20 80 60 
Calera 46 71 53 57 49 / 0 0 10 80 70 
Auburn 48 71 52 56 48 / 0 0 0 80 70 
Montgomery 48 75 56 60 52 / 0 0 10 90 70 
Troy 50 74 55 60 52 / 0 0 10 90 70 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories/... 



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