fxus64 kbmx 141733 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
1233 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018 

for 18z aviation. 


Short term... 
today and tonight. 

The frontal boundary that was across the southern portions of the 
area is slowly lifting northward now as a warm front. Showers and 
storms will be mainly along and south of this boundary, with 
generally scattered coverage through the evening. This will be a 
little more north and west from yesterday since the boundary has 
lifted some. There could be a few stronger storms during the peak 
heating of the day with winds and small hail possible. Flow will 
also be weak so any storms that develop will need to be monitored 
for training and localized flooding, especially in the southeast, 
where the best moisture will be in place. Most activity should 
dissipate between 10 PM and 12 am tonight, with patchy fog once 
again developing. 


Long term... 
Wednesday through Monday. 

The upper-level pattern will become more progressive by Wednesday. 
The upper lows currently over the northeastern Continental U.S. And Central 
Plains will have opened up into open waves, and moved into the 
Atlantic and Midwest, respectively. A shear axis will extend 
southward from the latter deamplifying wave over the Midwest, 
into the lower Mississippi Valley. Precipitation associated with 
this should remain west of the forecast area Wednesday, with weak 
height rises located over central Alabama. Very dry air at 700 mb 
will partially mix down to the surface and should suppress diurnal 
convection across the northern two thirds of the area, while 
isolated to scattered activity will be possible in the far 
southern counties near the old frontal boundary. The lack of 
convection and lower dew points mixing down will allow highs to 
reach the mid 90s in many locations. 

The mid/upper-level shear axis will continue to weaken Thursday as 
it moves towards the MS/Alabama border, as a pair of subtropical 
ridges strengthen over Texas and the Atlantic. The atmospheric 
column will be in the process of moistening, however there will 
still be a southwest to northeast oriented wedge of dry mid-level 
air over the area. This is where a relative minimum in diurnal 
convection may be, between one favored area in the far northwest 
near the shear axis, and another favored area in the far southeast 
near an enhancement in low-level onshore flow. Future updates may 
be able to lower pops a bit more between these two areas as they 
become more defined. 

A return to a wetter pattern is expected on Friday through the 
weekend as a shortwave in northwest flow aloft digs into the mid- 
Mississippi Valley Friday and pushes eastward through the Ohio 
Valley on Saturday with an associated surface low. 
Cyclonic/slightly enhanced flow aloft to the south of this feature 
in a weakness in the subtropical ridge combined with pwats 
increasing to 2 inches will result in above normal coverage of 
convection. The unsettled pattern looks to continue into early 
next week as another shortwave moves through the central Continental U.S.. 



18z taf discussion. 

VFR will be the dominate category thru the period. Diurnal convection 
will develop along the back side of an upper trof axis that is located 
across east Alabama. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms and rain near and south of 
the trof will likely impact kmgm and ktoi thru 00z. The activity 
will quickly diminish in areal coverage and intensity after 00z. 
Models indicate a surge of low level moisture across South Alabama 
after 09z, and included low cigs at ktoi. 



Fire weather... 

Daily scattered showers and storms are expected through the next 
several days. Morning fog and low clouds will be possible in 
locations that receive afternoon and evening rainfall. There are 
no fire weather concerns at this time. 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 67 94 70 92 71 / 10 10 10 30 30 
Anniston 68 94 71 93 71 / 20 10 10 30 20 
Birmingham 73 95 74 93 73 / 10 10 10 30 30 
Tuscaloosa 73 96 73 94 73 / 10 10 10 30 20 
Calera 71 93 71 91 71 / 10 10 10 30 20 
Auburn 70 92 71 90 71 / 30 20 10 40 20 
Montgomery 71 95 73 92 73 / 20 20 10 40 20 
Troy 70 93 72 91 73 / 30 30 20 50 20 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories/... 

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