fxus64 kbmx 241746 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018 

for 18z aviation. 


Short term... 
today and tonight. 

A weak low pressure system will move southeastward into the Tennessee 
Valley by this evening, stretching a west to east oriented cold 
front through the Tennessee Valley tonight. Expect rain chances to 
increase ahead of and along the front in the northern portions of 
central Alabama this afternoon and evening. Better moisture fields 
shift southward overnight, and will extend chance pops southward 
as well. Do begin to see a northwesterly wind shift work into the 
area early Sunday morning as the front sinks southward. 

Highs today will be in the 70s, and lows tonight in the mid 50s to 
mid 60s. 


Long term... 
Sunday through Saturday. 

A weak cold front is pushing through the area on Sunday as cold air 
damming sets up in the Carolinas. Light rain is possible along the 
frontal boundary Sunday morning and afternoon as it pushes to our 
south, but coverage isn't expected to be overly high. Therefore, 
will keep 30-40% chance of rain in the forecast. By Sunday night 
through the overnight hours and into Monday morning, a backdoor cold 
front moves east to west across our area. Moisture return looks to 
be minimal, so again, not expected widespread rainfall through 
Monday afternoon. Upper level ridging moves through Monday and 
Tuesday with the cooler easterly flow keeping temperatures more 

A deep longwave trough slides through The Four Corners region 
Tuesday as the center of the high pressure over the Florida 
Peninsula gets shifted eastward slightly. This will limit the cold 
air damming influence in central Alabama and moist southerly flow will 
return. A slow moving cold front pushes eastward through the MS 
River Valley later Tuesday night and begins to move into the Tennessee 
Valley early Wednesday morning. Models have been trending better in 
regards to consistency, showing a positively-tilted trough pushing 
the cold front through central Alabama Wednesday through Thursday. Both 
the GFS and ec are having difficulties resolving any specific 
surface low development and both keep instability modest through the 
period. Overall, expect a slow moving frontal boundary to push 
through the area bringing longer-duration rainfall and possibly a 
few thunderstorms. Lack of instability and modest lapse rates will 
limit any severe potential with this system. 

By Friday, the front has moved off to our south and east, ending 
rain chances for central Alabama. Cooler and dry weather expected on the 
backside of the trough as we go into the weekend. 



18z taf discussion. 

Only aviation impacts this afternoon will be gusty south-southwest winds 
around 20-25 kts, as MVFR ceilings have scattered out to VFR. Wind 
gusts will subside after sunset. A cold front will approach the 
area this evening from the north. Confidence has increased that 
showers associated with the front will impact the northern 
terminals after 3-4z and have added prevailing shra, but shower 
intensity will be on the lighter side. Isolated thunder is 
possible but chances are too low to mention in taf. Showers will 
diminish as they approach mgm/toi after 9z, and will only mention 
vcsh there. Cigs will lower to MVFR overnight as the showers move 
in, and IFR behind them. Only slow improvement is expected Sunday 
as the front stalls and another front approaches from the east. 



Fire weather... 

Moisture increases today as a weak front moves into the region. 
Isolated to scattered rain chances expected for most of the area 
this afternoon and tonight. Light fog and low ceilings are 
possible early Sunday morning. The front will stall across the 
area, with low rain chances continuing Monday. A brief break in 
rainfall is expected Tuesday, before another weather system 
affects the area. There are no fire weather concerns at this 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 59 71 46 55 47 / 40 30 30 40 20 
Anniston 61 72 46 55 46 / 40 40 40 40 20 
Birmingham 61 73 50 59 50 / 30 30 30 40 20 
Tuscaloosa 63 75 54 62 51 / 30 20 30 30 10 
Calera 62 75 50 59 48 / 30 30 40 30 10 
Auburn 62 73 47 54 47 / 30 40 50 30 20 
Montgomery 64 79 53 62 50 / 20 40 40 30 10 
Troy 64 79 53 61 50 / 20 40 40 30 10 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories/... 

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