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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama 
411 am CST Wed Jan 17 2018 


Short term... 
today and tonight. 


An area of light to moderate snowfall continues to push eastward this 
morning, currently east of a line from Montgomery to Wedowee. 
Latest radar trends have this activity finally moving east of the 
area by 8am CST. Through early this morning, an additional one 
half to one inch is possible along the I-85 corridor. With 
surface temperatures in the 20s, travel will likely be impacted 
and could become hazardous. 


Once snowfall ends, the focus will turn toward temperatures. 
Currently, Haleyville is at 4f, with locations along and north of 
I-20 in the low teens. With strong northerly winds, wind chill 
values will be (if they aren't already are) below zero along and 
north of the I-20 corridor by sunrise. Even with skies clearing 
through the day, it will take until noon for the entire forecast 
area to be above 15f, with highs only reaching the mid 20s north 
to lower 30s south. Most of central Alabama will not warm above 
freezing today. 


Surface winds diminish tonight with high pressure sliding toward the 
area from the west. Low level winds remain out of the north, and 
with clear skies, temperatures will fall into the low to mid 
teens areawide. 


14 


Long term... 
Thursday through Tuesday. 


Thursday/friday: 
mid and upper-level flow will become west-southwesterly on 
Thursday as the potent upper trough moves off into the Atlantic. A 
trough axis will be located off to our west, connecting upper 
lows over the Great Lakes and the Rio Grande. Surface winds will 
remain northwesterly but be weaker ahead of high pressure centered 
over the arklamiss. This will allow temperatures to gradually 
moderate to around 40 in the north and the low 40s south. 
Remaining snowcover over the south and east could result in high 
temperatures being lowered in later updates. Temperatures should 
rise above freezing areawide by noon. High pressure overhead 
Thursday night will result in ideal radiational cooling 
conditions. Another cold night is expected with lows in the upper 
teens to low 20s, a few degrees above hard freeze warning 
criteria. 


Gradual warming trend continues Friday as high pressure moves 
eastward. Remnants of the Rio Grande upper low will cross the area 
Friday night possibly into Saturday morning. Models are showing a 
bit more moisture with this system but still nothing to support 
anything more than mid and high level clouds. Lows will be in the 
upper 20s to around 30 Friday night. 


Saturday through monday: 
better warm air advection moves in for the weekend ahead of a 
strong trough advancing eastward across the country. Low-level 
moisture will increase but the dry air will remain aloft, so 
expect rain-free conditions for Saturday and Sunday. Highs reach 
the 50s on Saturday and the 60s on Sunday. A classic Colorado low 
will deepen as it moves into the Great Lakes by Monday. A line of 
showers and thunderstorms will develop along a trailing cold front 
and push eastward across the area. Models are trending slower 
with the front with the European model (ecmwf) being about 6-12 hours slower than 
the GFS. Have trended pops slower with the best rain chances being 
on Monday. Models show dew points struggling to reach 60 degrees 
due to this week's cold front scouring out the Gulf, and lingering 
high pressure to our east will result in an easterly component to 
surface winds, pinching off/narrowing the warm sector. Therefore 
development of appreciable instability for a severe threat 
continues to look unlikely, despite strong wind fields. 


Tuesday: 
the air mass behind the front will be nowhere near as cold as this 
week's. Another shortwave moves through Tuesday night, but 
operational models do not currently show enough moisture return 
for precipitation. 


32/Davis 


&& 


Aviation... 
06z taf discussion. 


Snow will continue to be the main flight hazard thru 12z for areas 
along and south of the I-20 corridor. The last band of snow that 
was producing vsbys 3-5 miles was near a kdya/keet/kgad line at 
taf release time. Cigs have already improved across the northern 
taf sites with cigs 5-6k feet agl. The skies will clear at these 
taf sites by 09z. Further south, snow will impact kmgm and ktoi 
thru 09z, with prevailing vsbys 3-5 miles and LCL vsbys 1 mile. 
By 09z the snow should be much lighter with vsbys aoa 5 miles. 
Cigs at kmgm and ktoi will be blo 1000 feet agl thru 08z, possibly 
a little longer at ktoi, then transition to MVFR cigs. Expect 
skies to clear at these two sites between 11z and 13z. Beyond 13z, 
clear skies expected at all sites with north winds 10-15 knots. 


58/rose 




&& 


Fire weather... 


Snow in the southeast counties will come to an end this morning. A 
very cold and dry air mass has moved in behind the snow. Cold 
temperatures will keep relative humidity values above critical values today with 
breezy conditions. Relative humidity values will fall to near 25 percent Thursday 
and Friday afternoons but winds will be lighter. Critical fire 
weather conditions are not expected. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Gadsden 27 15 41 18 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 
Anniston 28 15 41 19 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 
Birmingham 28 15 41 20 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 
Tuscaloosa 31 16 42 19 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 
Calera 29 17 42 21 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 
Auburn 29 17 43 23 51 / 20 0 0 0 0 
Montgomery 31 17 43 21 51 / 10 0 0 0 0 
Troy 31 17 43 22 51 / 30 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories/... 
hard freeze warning until 9 am CST Thursday for the following 
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock... 
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne... 
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale... 
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion... 
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell... 
Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa... 
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston. 


Winter Weather Advisory until 8 am CST this morning for the 
following counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bullock...Chambers... 
Elmore...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Montgomery...Pike...Randolph... 
Russell...Tallapoosa. 


Wind Chill Advisory until 9 am CST this morning for the 
following counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount... 
Bullock...Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay... 
Cleburne...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene... 
Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo... 
Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph... 
Russell...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa... 



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