fxus61 kbox 222324 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boston/Norton Massachusetts 
724 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 

the coastal storm will move into the Maritimes tonight and 
linger through the weekend. Upper level disturbances moving into 
new eng will bring the potential for scattered rain/snow 
showers through the weekend with temperatures remaining below 
normal. High pressure builds into the region Monday, then a 
warming trend is expected through the middle of the week. 


Near term /through Friday/... 
550 PM update... 

Scattered light rain/snow showers lingering along Cape Ann and 
Cape Cod/islands will diminish and move offshore during this 
evening. Then dry conditions expected for the overnight. 

Regarding winds and temps, a coastal front has set up, with the 
westernmost extent from lwm-bed-owd-pvd. Temperatures were much 
cooler on the east side of this boundary, with temps in the mid 
30s to low 40s. Utilized rap/hrrr guidance for the next several 
hours which captures this boundary, updating 
winds/temp/dewpoint over the next few hours. Winds along the 
shoreline should shift over to the northwest after 8 PM with the 
boundary washing out. 

Otherwise, weak shortwave ridging moving into New England 
combined with drying in the column will result in partial 
clearing, but clouds will return later tonight ahead of the next 
shortwave. Diminishing winds along the coast as storm moves 
further away. Lows will drop into the 20s in most locations. 


Short term /Friday night/... 

Mid level low over the Great Lakes digs southeast into new eng late in 
the day. Deepening moisture moves in from the west which will 
bring increasing cloud cover back into southern New England. A few rain or snow 
showers expected in the afternoon as low level lapse rates 
increase. Temps below normal in low to mid 40s, except upper 30s 
interior high terrain. 

Friday night... 

A few rain/snow showers may linger through the evening under the 
mid level low, otherwise lots of clouds will persist across the 
region. Lows will be mostly in the 20s. 


Long term /Saturday through Thursday/... 
high pressure system builds down from Quebec this weekend 
advecting cold air over the region, keeping temperatures well 
below normal through early next week. Global models are hinting 
to a low pressure system that forms off the coast of the mid- 
Atlantic and quickly intensifies. At the moment, models suggest 
that the strong high over Quebec will keep the low pushed out to 
sea. Regardless, if the low remains in close proximity to our 
coast, winds and swell will increase and likely remain that way 
until another system pushes it further east. 

Otherwise, the high pressure will continue to build over the 
region through Wednesday, before giving way to an approaching 
cold front Thursday. 


Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/... 
forecaster confidence levels... 

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent. 

Short term /through Friday night/... 

2330z update... 

Tonight...moderate to high confidence. Lingering MVFR on the 
cape/islands should improve to VFR by 03z. Otherwise...VFR 

Friday...moderate confidence. Mainly VFR, with local MVFR 
possible cape/islands. Isolated -shra/-shsn possible. 

Kbos terminal...moderate confidence in taf. VFR. East/variable 
winds should shift to the northwest by 02z. 

Kbdl terminal...moderate to high confidence in taf. VFR. 

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...moderate confidence. 

Saturday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance 
rain showers. 

Saturday night: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy 
with local gusts to 30 kt. Chance shsn. 

Sunday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts 
to 30 kt. Slight chance shsn. 

Sunday night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance 

Monday through Monday night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. 

Tuesday: windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance rain showers. 


short term /through Friday night/...high confidence. 

Through tonight...winds will gradaully diminish. Winds will 
drop below Small Craft Advisory over eastern waters this evening, but hazardous 
seas and Small Craft Advisory will continue for outer waters. 

Friday and Friday night...northerly winds below Small Craft Advisory. Seas will 
gradually subside below 5 ft over eastern waters by Fri 

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...moderate confidence. 

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. 

Saturday night: low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with 
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of 
rain showers, slight chance of snow showers. 

Sunday: strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough 
seas. Chance of snow showers, chance of rain showers. 

Sunday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 
30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of snow showers. 

Monday through Monday night: low risk for gale force winds with 
gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow 

Tuesday: moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with 
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for anz232. 
Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Friday for anz231. 
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for anz250-254. 
Small Craft Advisory until 10 am EDT Friday for anz251. 
Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT Friday for anz255. 
Small Craft Advisory until 4 am EDT Friday for anz256. 


near term...kjc/nmb 

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