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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts 
703 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 


Synopsis... 
a warm front will bring showers tonight. This will set the 
stage for near record high temperatures Tuesday, and especially 
Wednesday, so long as enough sunshine is realized. A cold front 
moves through Wednesday night, followed by an additional 
disturbance on Thursday. This will bring showers followed by 
cooler temperatures, but still at or above seasonal normals. 
Another weather system will pass to our west and north over the 
weekend bringing another period of wet weather. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/... 


7 PM update... 


Warm front extends from Iowa through the Great Lakes to southern 
Ontario. Area of showers extends along this front and east to 
southern New England. The showers have spread over our area. 
Movement is toward the east. 


Regional radar shows several bands of showers at 7 PM...one 
over the CT valley, a second over central New York and eastern PA, a 
third over western New York and northwest PA, and a fourth over Southeast 
Michigan. Showers should continue for several hours, then 
diminish after midnight as the warm front lifts north of our 
area. 


The persistent south winds should mean nearly steady to slowly 
rising temperatures through the night, too. Patchy fog is 
expected, which could become locally dense toward the South 
Coast with the flow right off the ocean. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night/... 
Tuesday... 


A few showers and patchy fog may linger along south coastal 
areas early, then should push offshore by around midday. 
However, clouds will likely linger across most areas through the 
day. 


The big question will be whether the clouds will dissipate 
during the midday and afternoon hours across the interior. If 
the clouds do break more than currently forecast, Max 
temperatures will likely be higher than current forecast, too. 


Tuesday night... 


Anomalous southwest flow will continue across southern New 
England. Low temperatures expected to be about 10 degrees above 
the normal high temperature for this time of year. Still 
thinking some low clouds and fog are possible, especially near 
the cape/islands with high dewpoint air moving over the 
relatively cool ocean. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Monday/... 


Big picture... 


Upper ridge lingers over the eastern USA while a deep trough holds 
over the west. The ridge relaxes south a little Thursday, then a 
little more over the weekend. Even so, 500-mb heights remain above 
normal through the period. 


The ridge relaxes as several shortwaves eject out of the western 
trough and erode The Heights on the north side of the ridge. 
Contours are forecast to be well-packed. The trough axis will be 
positively tilted. Expect the shortwaves to be fast-moving. 


Good agreement among the model mass fields through Saturday morning. 
Differences in shortwave detail, most notably on Sunday and Monday, 
but the overall pattern is similar and suggests three disturbances 
moving through during the long term period. Just differences in 
timing. 


Details... 


Wednesday... 


Upper ridge over the eastern USA brings deep warm advection into New 
England. The question will be how deeply mixing will be able to tap 
that warm air. The GFS shows mixing in the interior to 925 mb and 
possibly 900 mb, while areas closer to the South Coast may be 
buffered by the flow of the southwest wind off the ocean. Temps at 
925 mb will be equiv to 5-9c at 850 mb, while temps at 900 mb will 
be equiv to 8-11c. This suggests Max sfc temps in the upper 60s and 
lower 70s inland. Any locations that could eke out a mixed layer to 
900 mb should reach low to mid 70s. 


Model cross sections of moisture continue to show a layer of high- 
moisture air below 925 mb. This could be indicating a low cloud 
layer over the region that would reduce or eliminate sunshine and 
resulting mixing. That would keep temperatures several degrees 
lower. This will need to be monitored. 


Mixing will also tap stronger winds aloft. Winds at 850 mb will be 
40-50 knots. Within the mixed layer winds will be 25-30 knots, with 
gusts to those speeds possible Wednesday afternoon. 


Wednesday night-Thursday... 


Shortwave and associated surface Low Pass across Quebec and push a 
cold front south across New England. Consensus between the GFS and 
European model (ecmwf) brings the front across our area during the evening hours. The 
European model (ecmwf) does so briskly with no hesitation, while the GFS shows 
similar initial timing but then forms a couple of waves on the front 
and slows its departure off the South Coast. Moisture cross sections 
from both models Show Low level moisture with minor lift Wednesday 
night, then deep moisture and strong lift Thursday...overlying a dry 
layer near the surface. Precip water values continue to show well 
above normal levels. 


So some contradictions that cut back on confidence. But sufficient 
elements to indicate a chance of showers, especially on Thursday as 
the strong forcing moves through. 


Expect cooling behind the cold front Wednesday night with temps 
falling to the upper 30s and 40s. Mixing to 950 mb supports Max sfc 
temps Thursday in the 40s. 


Friday through Monday... 


High pressure from the northern plains moves east to New England, 
bringing clearing skies for Thursday night. Clouds then move back in 
during Friday. 


As noted above, model consensus shows a couple of shortwaves moving 
through the flow over the weekend. But the fast-moving pattern 
reduces confidence in exactly timing the passage of each across New 
England. The first should move through anywhere from Friday 
afternoon to early Saturday, the second on Sunday. 


High pressure over the Maritimes Friday is in position to hold cold 
air over New England at the start of the first event. This would 
mean a brief period of snow or ice before changing to rain Friday 
afternoon. 


If timing GOES as forecast, high pressure builds Monday with dry 
weather and near seasonable temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
forecaster confidence levels... 


Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent. 


Short term /through Tuesday night/...high confidence in trends. 
Moderate confidence in timing. 


Tonight... 


VFR east, MVFR cigs west. Expect cigs to lower to 1000-1500 feet 
most places with coastal and elevated sites dipping below 1000 
feet and into IFR range. Vsbys will be 3-4 miles in showers 
overnight. Lowest conditions for most locations will be roughly 
10 PM to 3 am. South winds gust up to 20 kt across Cape Cod and 
the islands. 


Tuesday...mix of conditions. MVFR visibilities/MVFR-IFR ceilings in 
scattered -shra and patchy fog early, improving to VFR. 
However, MVFR to local IFR conditions may linger along the S 
coast through early afternoon. 


Tuesday night...areas MVFR/IFR conditions should redevelop in 
low clouds and patchy fog. Breezy. Slight chance rain showers toward the 
S coast. 


Kbos terminal...moderate confidence in taf. 


Kbdl terminal...moderate confidence in taf. 


Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...moderate confidence. 


Wednesday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. 


Wednesday night: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. 
Chance rain showers. 


Thursday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance rain showers. 


Thursday night: VFR. 


Friday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance ra, slight 
chance freezing rain. 


Friday night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance ra, chance 
fzra, patchy br. 


Saturday: mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance ra, 
slight chance fzra, patchy br. 


&& 


Marine... 
forecaster confidence levels... 


Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent. 


Short term /through Tuesday night/...high confidence. 


Rough seas still expected to develop across the ocean-exposed 
waters with the arrival of southerly swells. Will need to 
continue the small craft advisories across those waters. 
Scattered showers and patchy fog will bring reduced visibility 
tonight, then should improve on the eastern waters Tuesday. 
Reduced visibility lingers Tuesday into Tuesday night on the 
southern waters in patchy fog and isolated showers. 


Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...moderate to high 


Wednesday: moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with 
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain 
showers. 


Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. 
Slight chance of rain showers. 


Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. 
Chance of rain showers. 


Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. 


Friday through saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally 
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. 


&& 


Climate... 
record highest observed temperature for February...(since 
records began) 


Boston.........73 (2/24/2017) 
Hartford.......73 (2/24/1985) 
Providence.....72 (2/24/1985) 
Worcester......69 (2/24/2017) 


Record high temperatures... 


February.......2/20......2/21 


Boston.........68 (1930) 63 (1906) 
Hartford.......69 (1930) 63 (1930) 
Providence.....69 (1930) 63 (1930) 
Worcester......65 (1930) 59 (1930) 


Record warmest min temperature... 


February.......2/20......2/21 


Boston.........46 (1930) 45 (1994) 
Hartford.......50 (1981) 49 (1981) 
Providence.....48 (1981) 50 (1981) 
Worcester......47 (1981) 43 (2002) 


Extreme high dew points... 
dew point forecast has values in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. 


February.......2/20......2/21 


Boston.........54 (1991) 56 (1953) 
Hartford.......53 (1981) 55 (1989) 
Providence.....58 (1939) 56 (1989) 
Worcester......53 (1981) 54 (1953) 


&& 


Box watches/warnings/advisories... 
CT...none. 
Massachusetts...none. 
Rhode Island...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am EST Wednesday for anz235-237- 
250-254>256. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...wtb/Belk 
near term...wtb/Belk 
short term...Belk 



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