fxus64 kfwd 130521 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
1121 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017 

light southwest winds will continue through daybreak before 
increasing to around 15 kts for most of Wednesday. Later 
Wednesday evening, another dry cold front will move through the 
area, causing winds to turn to the north. While the front should 
clear the dfw metroplex before 06z, it likely won't reach Waco 
until closer to 09z which remains outside of the current taf 
period. VFR conditions will prevail through the period with only a 
few high clouds present. 



Short term... /issued 322 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ 

Calm weather is in store tonight, with northerly winds subsiding 
to around 5 mph across north and central Texas. Southwesterly 
winds will return after midnight, still remaining around 5 mph. 
The low wind speeds, clear skies and relatively dry air will allow 
for temperatures to drop from the 30s to around 40 degrees across 
the region. Slightly higher elevated moisture will stream into 
central Texas during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday, leading to a 
few clouds to start out the day. 



Long term... /issued 322 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/ 
/Wednesday through Monday/ 

A split flow pattern will continue across the region through the 
end of the work week with an upper ridge along the West Coast, an 
upper low over Baja California and a progressive but dry northwest 
flow regime over the Southern Plains. A shortwave (currently 
located over alberta) will race southeastward through the plains 
Wednesday, which will send a cold front through north and central 
Texas Wednesday night. After a chilly day today, a return to west 
winds and compressional warming ahead of the front will lead to a 
rapid warm-up Wednesday afternoon, and we have sided with the 
warmer end of guidance as a result (similar to monday). West winds 
and good mixing means that we have also gone with the drier side 
of guidance, and another elevated fire danger day is expected as 
minimum relative humidity values fall into the teens Wednesday afternoon. 

Conditions will improve by sunset Wednesday as winds slacken and 
temperatures fall. The front will move quietly southward through 
the area Wednesday night, and another cool and breezy day can be 
expected on Thursday. A second and stronger shortwave will swing 
southeast through the plains late Thursday into early Friday, 
sending a reinforcing shot of cool air southward and keeping 
friday's temperatures a few degrees below thursday's readings. 
The dry and breezy weather will keep fire danger elevated on 
Thursday and Friday, but the cooler airmass should hopefully help 
to mitigate the overall threat. 

A slight westward shift in the upper level pattern this weekend 
will send a third and yet stronger shortwave southeast from the 
Great Basin into The Four-Corners area on Saturday. The system 
will be far enough west to grab the baja low and sling it quickly 
northeast across Mexico and Texas Saturday and Saturday night, 
then into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. Models are in better 
agreement now and are indicating a faster and more moist system 
than previous runs. We haven't jumped on board with the likely and 
categorical pops (across the eastern counties) as advertised by 
the ECMWF, but an upward adjustment to the pops have been made for 
the Saturday / Saturday night timeframe based on model trends. 
The increase in low level moisture will also help to reduce fire 
danger, though the western counties will still experience an 
elevated fire threat where moisture return will be limited and 
the warmest air will exist. 

Yet another cold front will push through on Sunday, bringing a 
return to cool and dry conditions during the early part of next 



Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth 38 73 40 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Waco 30 69 39 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Paris 32 69 37 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Denton 33 74 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 
McKinney 33 72 37 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Dallas 39 72 41 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Terrell 32 70 38 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Corsicana 34 67 40 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Temple 30 67 40 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Mineral Wells 30 76 36 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 

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