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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
604 am CST Sat Feb 16 2019 




Aviation... 
/12z tafs/ 


Concerns and challenges: timing erosion of Post-frontal low 
MVFR/IFR cigs and wind speed/direction through 21z this afternoon, 
then any br/fog potential before cold frontal passage just before 12z 
Sunday. 


Current frontal inversion sits around 925mb or 2500 ft this 
morning, with saturation occurring as low as 800-100 feet in the 
colder air to begin the forecast. Will advertise low MVFR below 
fl015 with tempo IFR cigs and north winds around 10 knots through 
15z, before drier gradually arrives from the northeast with 
a surface ridge extending into the region by 18z-21z. Variable to 
light east/east-southeast winds 5 knots or less is expected as cigs slowly rise 
and scatter by mid-late afternoon with VFR conditions returning. 


Tonight, low-level warm advection arriving on southerly winds 5-10 
knots will result in a reformation of MVFR cigs and some potential 
for MVFR/tempo IFR vsbys at eastern Metro and Waco airports just 
before midnight Sunday. These conditions will continue until the 
next frontal passage arrives just before 12z -- ushering in west/northwest winds 10-15 
knots in it's wake. 


05/ 


&& 




Short term... /issued 358 am CST Sat Feb 16 2019/ 
/today and tonight/ 


Yesterday's cold front is now pushing through the I-10 corridor 
into south-central/southeast Texas and into the Upper Texas coast 
early this morning. There's quite a nip to the air, as strong low 
level cold advection has current temperatures down into the upper 
20s-lower 30s in the north and to the 40s across our southern 
central Texas counties. In addition, a stratus field in the wake 
of the front was currently surging south along the shallow frontal 
inversion into central Texas as well. With pressure rises easing 
up somewhat, north winds 10-15 mph with a few gusts between 20-25 
mph at few locales should come down by daybreak this morning. 


Look for a mainly cloudy, brisk, and cold start to your Saturday 
with temperatures in the mid-upper 20s across the northwest to 
lower 40s across eastern parts of central Texas. Combined with 
the continuing brisk north-northeast winds, look for wind chill 
readings in the upper teens to mid 20s to start your day northwest 
of a line from Stephenville, to dfw, to McKinney and Cooper to 
start your day. Make sure to bundle up and wear layers if planning 
to be outdoors this morning. Winds will ease up by midday and 
early afternoon, as a surface high pressure ridge builds in 
quickly from the northeast. 


Persistent stratus will likely continue across all but those areas 
west of a Breckenridge, to Hamilton, to Killeen line where drier 
low level air entrainment should result in at least partial 
sunshine today. Once again, a very challenging high temperature 
forecast is expected as strong low level warm advection ensues in 
the 925mb layer and just above our shallow frontal inversion by 
this afternoon. With the shallow frontal inversion mainly grazing 
areas west of U.S. 281 in our far western cwa, I expect this will 
be the one area that should be able to recover on temperatures 
quickly into the 50s and lower 60s. This will be due to those 
areas seeing partial sunshine, returning south-southwest winds to 
near 10 mph, and better chances of realizing the aformentioned 
warm advection at 925mb mixing to the surface. Otherwise, the 
stratus field will hang tough across the rest of the County Warning Area with a 
slight delay to realizing the warm advection until very late in 
the day. As a result, I went colder than guidance blends with 
much of the area being hard-pressed to warm beyond the 40s. 


Remnants of our very shallow dome of Arctic air will prevail 
through mid-evening, before increasing south-southwest winds near 
10 mph become widespread overnight. Richer surface dew point 
temperatures between 45-55 degrees will also return across areas 
east of I-35/35e and along/south of I-30 with the potential for 
fog formation across these areas as better moisture overruns the 
the cold soil temperatures across this portion of our County Warning Area. At 
this point we do not expect widespread dense fog across our far 
east-southeastern counties overnight in advance of our next cold 
front approaching the area from the northwest. However, if wind 
speeds were to come down across this area more than forecast, or 
even go calm, then at least patchy dense fog may be realized just 
before daybreak Sunday. In addition, the residual cloud cover and 
low level warm advection east of I-35 will likely result in 
steady or even possibly slow-rising temperatures overnight while 
colder temperatures with better radiational cooling occur further 
to the west. A few sprinkles or a slight chance of light rain may 
occur in advance of the cold front in the east as well, but we are 
not expecting anything of consequence. 


05/ 


&& 


Long term... /issued 358 am CST Sat Feb 16 2019/ 
/Sunday Onward/ 


Another cool and wet period is expected to start out the next 
week as a deep upper level trough in the west provides a favorable 
flow for several days of rain chances, including the chance for 
some wintry precipitation Tuesday morning and Tuesday night. 
Temperatures start to moderate the second half of the week, but 
rain chances linger through the end of the week. 


Sunday and Monday 
southwesterly flow aloft will get established across north and 
central Texas as a deep upper level trough digs into the 
intermountain west. In the meantime, a cold front will have moved 
across north and central Texas, keeping temperatures on the cool 
side, albeit dry for Sunday. A freeze is expected by Monday 
morning across North Texas with persistent cold air advection 
continuing well into the day. Much colder temperatures are 
expected by Monday, with highs only reaching the lower 40s across 
the Red River and middle 50s across central Texas. Monday will 
remain precipitation-free, but the same cant be said for Monday 
night. 


Winds above 2500 feet will begin to respond to the approaching 
longwave trough, as well as an embedded shortwave that will be 
racing northeastward across north and central Texas. Southerly 
winds with moist, warm air will ride atop the shallow, cold air 
enhancing the lift necessary for the development of precipitation. 
While most of the region will see a cold rain and above-freezing 
surface temperatures, the one exception will be across the far 
northwestern counties where lows are expected to dip to, or 
slightly below freezing. With a layer of >32f temperatures between 
3500 to 9000 feet above the surface, all precipitation is 
expected to fall in the liquid phase. The tricky part will be 
areas northwest of a Bowie to Mineral Wells to Cisco line, where 
surface temperatures may drop to freezing for a short period of 
time early Tuesday morning. Given temperatures will be within a 
degree or two of freezing, impacts should remain minimal. Some 
light icing may be visible to elevated surfaces such as trees, 
traffic signs and cars, but with temperatures so close to 
freezing, latent heat released by the freezing of water droplets 
will likely keep the Road surfaces free of ice. 


Tuesday and Wednesday 
as temperatures rise above freezing Tuesday, the threat for 
freezing rain will remain well north and northwest of our area. 
Highs, unfortunately, will remain quite cold with upper 30s in the 
northwest and upper 40s in the south. Persistent isentropic 
ascent will keep rain for most of the area during the day on 
Tuesday. No significant rainfall is expected, with rain amounts 
generally below .4 across East Texas and lesser amounts to the 
west. 


The mischievous winter weather sneaks back into the forecast as 
precipitation comes to an end Tuesday night into Wednesday 
morning. The column of air will gradually cool overnight, and 
areas northwest of a Bowie to Mineral Wells to Comanche line may 
see a brief transition from rain to a rain/snow/sleet mix. Given 
moisture content will be waning by this time period, any frozen 
precipitation will be light in nature, preventing impacts from 
arising. 


Strong northward Theta-E advection will once again develop 
Wednesday afternoon and night, keeping a mention of precipitation 
across central Texas. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 
30s, limiting any threat for wintry precipitation. 


Thursday through Saturday 
continued southwesterly flow aloft will continue to provide a 
track for a train of mid-level disturbances to come within close 
proximity of north and central Texas, Thursday will be no 
exception. This time, a Stout disturbance will take a more 
southerly track than its predecessors. As the disturbance 
approaches, forcing for ascent will increase across the region 
leading to the development of showers area wide. A rumble or two 
cant be ruled out across the southeastern tier of counties 
where 200-300 j/kg of instability will be present. 


Rain chances will persist into Saturday as the parent shortwave 
finally begins to move eastward, overspreading ample lift across 
the area. Instability will once again increase Saturday afternoon 
mainly across central and East Texas, enhancing the development of 
isolated thunderstorms within the precipitation shield. Persistent 
southerly flow will help temperatures gradually moderate Thursday 
through Saturday. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the 60s 
with lows in the 40s to around 50. 


Hernandez 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth 46 42 56 34 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Waco 49 44 61 39 54 / 0 0 5 0 0 
Paris 45 41 55 32 47 / 0 20 5 0 0 
Denton 45 39 55 30 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 
McKinney 44 39 55 32 47 / 0 0 5 0 0 
Dallas 47 44 57 35 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Terrell 47 44 58 35 51 / 0 0 5 0 5 
Corsicana 48 46 59 38 52 / 0 5 5 0 5 
Temple 53 46 64 40 56 / 0 0 5 0 0 
Mineral Wells 53 40 56 30 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 



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