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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
628 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 

/00z tafs/ 

Main focus through the taf period will be on convective chances 
overnight and again Friday afternoon. 

VFR conditions and south winds currently exist at all taf sites, 
which will be the prevailing conditions through the taf period. 
However, we'll be monitoring potential convective activity near 
the Red River and through North Texas over the next 24 hours as a 
weak shortwave and associated vort Max ride southeastward around 
the upper ridge. Convective chances during the overnight or early 
morning period are looking lower based on both recent radar trends 
and latest high-res guidance. Morning convective potential would 
likely have been predicated on more robust convection ongoing 
right now through parts of northwest Texas or southwest OK. Without 
any convection in these areas to move southeastward, or even to 
develop/send an outflow boundary southeastward, the potential for 
convection near the dfw area airports in the morning appears 
relatively low at this time. 

The next concern for the taf period will be around midday Friday 
and into the afternoon hours when the weak shortwave will be 
moving overhead above an unstable and uncapped boundary layer. 
With pws progged to be near 2", ingredients will be present for at 
least a couple isolated storms to develop across parts of North 
Texas during the afternoon hours. However, would expect the 
greatest coverage to remain through central/southern OK where 
convergence will be maximized along a surface trough axis. Will 
maintain a few hours of thunderstorms in the vicinity at dfw airports tomorrow afternoon 
and continue to assess new 00z guidance regarding ts potential. 
Waco, on the other hand, is likely to remain far removed from 
convective activity through the period. 



Short term... /issued 334 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/ 
/this afternoon and tonight/ 

A robust mesoscale convective vortex has been rolling through western and central 
Oklahoma this afternoon and has been efficient at producing a 
cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms to the north. A trailing 
line of high-based showers was noted across southern Oklahoma and 
this activity may graze areas along the Red River this afternoon. 

The better chance for showers and thunderstorms across North 
Texas will be after midnight tonight and into Friday. Additional 
convection is expected to fire upstream across southern Oklahoma 
in response to decent isentropic ascent along the 310k Theta 
surface. With a decent low level jet, there should be a tendency 
for convection to sag southward to the south of the Red River. 
I'll keep slight chance to chance pops here. How far south this 
activity gets is a little uncertain at this time so there is some 
bust potential here. The main hazards will be gusty winds and 
heavy rain. 

Otherwise, it'll be mild and breezy tonight across north and 
central Texas with overnight low temperatures in the 70s and 80s. 



Long term... /issued 334 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/ 
/Friday through Thursday/ 

North Texas will remain to the east of stronger ridging within 
northwest flow aloft through the weekend into early next week. 
This will tend to keep the pattern slightly more active than 
normal with at least low rain chances for several days and the 
potential for a cold front early next week. 

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should be ongoing mainly 
across southern Oklahoma during the early morning hours on Friday. 
Northwest flow aloft is not very strong during this time, so most 
of the activity should be weakening as it approaches or crosses 
the Red River. More importantly though will be the progression of 
the associated outflow boundary. This feature should spread 
southward through the morning and will likely be somewhere in the 
vicinity of I-30 by midday. Despite the lack of any appreciable 
forcing for ascent, strong diabatic heating and the presence of 
the remnant boundary should allow for at least scattered showers 
and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. The atmosphere 
should be uncapped with moderate instability, so any afternoon 
storms would be capable of strong gusty winds. We'll keep the 
coverage of thunderstorms around 20-30% with the highest chances 
along and north of I-20. 

Low storm chances will continue Saturday as a quasi-stationary 
front remains draped across southern Oklahoma. A weak disturbance 
will spread through the plains on Saturday with coverage of 
showers and thunderstorms expected to increase across southern 
Oklahoma. This activity may spread into our northeast counties 
Saturday evening and overnight. 

By Monday a strong shortwave will dive into the Central Plains and 
into the mid Mississippi River valley. This is expected to send a 
cold front southward into the region. Models continue to be in 
fair agreement with respect to the strength/timing of the front 
through North Texas early on Monday. We'll have our highest pops 
very late Sunday night/early Monday morning spreading south 
through the day across the region. Despite the frontal boundary 
and increased moisture, the strongest lift will actually spread 
off to the east of the region, so we'll keep pops in the 30-50% 
range for most of our area. High pressure will build into the 
region behind this front and temperatures will cool by several 
degrees. We'll keep highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s for 
Tuesday and Wednesday. 



Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth 80 97 78 97 78 / 20 20 20 10 20 
Waco 79 99 76 99 77 / 5 5 10 5 10 
Paris 79 94 73 93 75 / 30 30 30 20 20 
Denton 80 97 76 96 76 / 20 20 20 20 20 
McKinney 80 97 76 95 76 / 20 20 20 20 20 
Dallas 82 97 79 97 79 / 20 20 20 10 20 
Terrell 80 97 76 97 77 / 20 20 20 10 20 
Corsicana 79 98 77 98 78 / 10 10 10 10 20 
Temple 77 99 75 99 76 / 5 5 5 5 10 
Mineral Wells 77 97 74 96 75 / 10 20 10 10 20 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 

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