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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
607 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 




Aviation... 
the remnants of Willa in the eastern Pacific will move across the 
state Wednesday and bring widespread rain to the region. After the 
rain begins, saturation of the layer occurs from top down and 
cigs will fall to MVFR and possibly IFR. Light northeast to north 
winds will prevail. 


For the taf forecasts will show rain arriving in the metroplex 
around 14z and MVFR cigs after 19z. Visibility is also likely to 
fall below 6sm when moderate rain occurs in the mid to late 
afternoon. Cigs should stay above 1000ft in the metroplex through 
00z. After sunset it's possible that cigs will fall to IFR, but 
due to low confidence will keep extended dfw taf at MVFR. For 
Waco, there will be an earlier start to the rain, around 10z, and 
cigs will be lower. Will show MVFR by 13z and IFR after 18z with 
moderate rain reducing visibilities to less than 6sm in the late 
morning and afternoon hours. 


Tr.92 


&& 




Short term... /issued 321 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018/ 
/tonight/ 


A brief subsident and mainly rain free period late this 
afternoon/early this evening will quickly be replaced by 
increasing upward vertical motion associated with an approaching 
upper trough. Although low level moisture will remain relatively 
scoured out due to an east to northeast surface wind, the 
atmosphere will steadily moisten from the top down through the 
night as elevated showers increase in coverage from southwest to 
northeast. Rainfall amounts overnight will be light and average 
less than 1/10 inch. 


Extensive cloud cover overnight should keep temperatures 
generally in the 50s, but a few of the northwest zones (which may 
not cloud up until late tonight) may dip into the upper 40s. 


79 


&& 


Long term... /issued 321 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018/ 
/Wednesday through next week/ 


The weather focus through the next week will be the potential for 
rain Wednesday into Wednesday night, as well as low rain chances 
by the middle of next week. 


Wednesday and Thursday 
a shortwave trough currently making its way across Baja 
California will continue moving eastward, and by tomorrow, lead to 
increasing rain chances through the day. Low-level dry air will 
continue to be in place across North Texas during the morning 
hours, but with increasing moisture advecting northward and more 
vigorous isentropic upglide, the atmosphere will slowly saturate 
by mid to late morning across the region. The approaching 
shortwave from Baja California will generate substantial 
isentropic ascent to generate widespread light to moderate rain. 
Although there are high rain chances across the region, the 
highest rainfall amounts will likely be confined to areas south of 
Interstate 20. The best moisture, as well as the strongest 
isentropic ascent, will reside in the aformentioned area, leading 
to higher rainfall totals. Instability continues to be very low 
to non-existent, therefore, will keep any mention of thunderstorms 
out of the forecast. Having said that, subsequent updates will be 
monitoring any trends in the models this evening and overnight. 
If instability increases over our area, higher rainfall amounts 
would be expected as more convective elements come into play, 
leading to higher rainfall rates. Over the course of the day on 
Wednesday, precipitation totals will likely average between half 
an inch along the Red River to around 2 inches across the Brazos 
Valley. Low-lying spots and poor drainage areas will have a threat 
for localized flooding, but at this point, it appears as it will 
not be widespread, precluding the issuance of a Flood Watch. 


As a surface low develops across the Texas Gulf Coast late 
Wednesday, much drier air from the north/northwest will be drawn 
into the region, ending our precipitation chances from west to 
east Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Given the 
extensive cloud cover and precipitation, highs on Tuesday will be 
fairly cool, ranging from the low 50s in the west, to low 60s in 
the northeast. 


Clouds will be slow to clear out on Thursday, even with the dry 
air aloft invading the region. Slowly, the air aloft will mix 
through the atmosphere, leading to a return of sunshine and 
temperatures in the low to mid 60s by the afternoon. 


This weekend... 
northwesterly flow will continue into the weekend as an upper 
level trough impacts areas east of The Rockies, leaving north and 
central Texas on the subsident, dry side with increasing upper 
level heights. Temperatures will climb into the 70s each day, with 
light northwesterly winds prevailing. The GFS is advertising a 
low potential for a showers across the Red River early Saturday 
morning as a shortwave moves along the northwesterly flow aloft. 
For now, will keep any mention of precipitation out of the 
forecast given the lack of appreciable moisture. 


A cold front will be making it's way southward across the plains, 
and with the help of a passing shortwave, it will likely move 
into north and central Texas during the day on Sunday. There are 
still some timing differences, but given the moisture starved 
atmosphere, the chance for precipitation appears to be very low. 


Monday and beyond 
cooler temperatures are expected Monday as cold air advection 
leads to highs in the 60s generally north of I-20. Tuesday's 
temperatures will bounce back into the 70s as southerly flow 
returns ahead of the next approaching upper level trough. Rain 
chances will pick back up on Wednesday as the progressive trough 
makes it way eastward and pushes another cold front into the 
region. 


Hernandez 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth 53 58 52 63 51 / 5 90 80 10 0 
Waco 54 57 53 64 51 / 30 100 80 10 0 
Paris 51 62 50 59 49 / 0 60 90 20 0 
Denton 51 57 51 62 50 / 5 90 80 10 0 
McKinney 51 58 51 61 50 / 0 80 90 10 0 
Dallas 54 58 53 62 51 / 5 90 80 10 0 
Terrell 52 58 52 61 51 / 5 90 90 10 0 
Corsicana 54 58 53 62 51 / 20 90 90 10 0 
Temple 54 57 53 65 52 / 40 100 80 10 0 
Mineral Wells 51 55 51 62 49 / 20 100 70 5 0 


&& 






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