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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
420 am CDT Tue Oct 17 2017 




Short term... 
with clear skies, low humidity, and light wind, radiational 
cooling overnight has been very effective. As typically occurs on 
nights like this, variations in urbanization, surface type, and 
relief have yielded a wide range in early morning temperatures. 
This includes the usual ~15f difference in Wise County between 
low-lying, Lakeside Bridgeport (864ft) and the Hillcrest at 
Decatur (1047ft). Among the recent additions to our hourly Airport 
Arsenal are those on the Eastland County slope. Eastland Municipal 
(1468ft) is within the River Valley of the Leon river's North Fork 
while cisco's Simmons Airport (1711ft) is among the highest spots 
in our County Warning Area. Eastland dipped into the 30s shortly after midnight, 
but 13 miles to the west at Cisco, it has remained in the 50s. 


The sun will quickly erase these differences this morning, and the 
entire region will see 70f by early afternoon. The calm winds 
within the nocturnal boundary layer are masking the synoptic wind 
field across North Texas, but there is evidence of return flow in 
our western zones. Moisture will be slow to return, and the 
combination of warm advection and a dry boundary layer will result 
in a large diurnal temperature range. The warmest high temps will 
be across our western zones where the Mercury may flirt with 80f. 
A surface ridge, remnants of our recent autumn air, will remain 
draped across the region. This will keep easterly flow in place 
across our southern and eastern zones this afternoon. However, 
speeds will likely be too light to impede temperatures from 
exceeding monday's highs. 


Although southerly surface flow will dominate tonight into 
Wednesday morning, the ridge axis may be slow to depart, resulting 
in minimal warm/moist advection. Regardless, wednesday's low 
temperatures will be warmer than this morning's values regionwide. 
With clear skies prevailing, temperatures will fall into the 40s, 
the exception being urbanized portions of the Dallas/Fort Worth 
metroplex, which will likely bottom out in the 50s. 


25 


&& 


Long term... 
/Wednesday through next Monday/ 


A shortwave ridge aloft will maintain the dry sensible weather 
across the area with increasing south winds and low level warm 
advection helping to fetch better moisture from the Gulf of 
Mexico. This initial return of low level moisture will not be 
overly rich, due to the last cold front having scoured the 
Continental shelf just offshore, with richest moisture being 
suppressed over the central Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche. 
Though delayed, better moisture will surge north into the area 
later Thursday into Friday, as noted by Richer Theta-E values 
within the surface- boundary layer. Southwest flow aloft ahead of 
an amplifying western U.S. Trough will hold a fairly Stout 
eml(capping inversion) overhead through Thursday. However, as the 
lead shortwave lifts out across the state, the eml should continue 
to gradually weaken. This first shortwave will mainly result in 
increasing cloudiness, especially in the mid to upper levels on 
Thursday. The low level warm advection will result in both warmer 
and more humid low temperatures, with high temperatures each day 
warming to between 75 and 85 degrees. 


Another shortwave will be right on the tail of the first shortwave 
disturbance heading into Thursday night and Friday and is notably 
stronger. Ascent associated with this second perturbation will 
lead to some weakening of the eml with increasing Theta-E advection 
and isentropic ascent aloft lending to low convective chances 
this period. Mid level lapse rates will be steep enough for charge 
distribution and isolated to scattered elevated storms. If 
moisture recovers faster than currently expected both at the 
surface and mid levels, then a few stronger elevated storms with 
small hail may occur, but it does not appear to be the case at 
this time. 


There will be a lull between these initial shortwaves and a much 
more vigorous mid level disturbance that arrives later this 
weekend. Low chances for non-severe thunderstorms will continue 
Saturday, as we await the strong mid level disturbance Saturday 
night and Sunday. The 00z runs of gefs/eps ensembles and operational 
GFS/European models all seem to have a pretty good handle with 
regard to strength and timing of the actual kinematic features and 
dynamics, though moisture and the thermodynamic environmental set 
up remain uncertain, especially with regard to the strength of the 
eml (cap) over the area. The system and associated strong surface 
cold front are still on schedule to arrive in the midnight to 
midday Sunday timeframe. We will continue advertising the potential 
for strong storms with gusty winds, hail, and frequent lightning 
during this time frame and hope to get a better handle on the 
thermodynamic environment as it evolves and we move closer to the 
weekend. With any severe weather threat uncertain, we do encourage 
everyone to pay close attention to future forecasts with regard 
to this system with outdoor weekend activities likely in full 
swing. Otherwise, it is likely that many areas will see their high 
temperatures Sunday morning in the 70s, with brisk winds and slow 
falling temperatures late in the day into Sunday evening. 


Previous medium range model runs, especially the European/eps 
ensembles, had mid level energy cutting off early next week. 
However, recent 00z runs have indicated more of a progressive 
mid level trough in alignment with the GFS/gefs forecasts. This 
means this system will exit the area Sunday night into Monday with 
cooler temperatures returning to the region and northwest flow 
aloft over the Southern Plains. 


05/ 


&& 




Aviation... /issued 1142 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017/ 
/6z tafs/ 


No changes to the latest tafs. VFR conditions will prevail through 
the period with near calm winds overnight becoming light southeast 
early Tuesday morning. No major aviation concerns expected through 
the period. 


Dunn 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth 76 53 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Waco 78 47 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 5 
Paris 73 47 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Denton 76 48 81 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 
McKinney 75 47 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Dallas 77 54 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Terrell 75 46 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 
Corsicana 76 49 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 5 
Temple 78 48 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 5 
Mineral Wells 77 47 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 



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