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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
630 PM CDT Wed may 23 2018 




Aviation... 
00 UTC taf cycle 


Concerns---short term thunder/wind-shift and overnight MVFR 
ceiling potential at Waco. VFR at the metroplex. 


VFR is expected to prevail at the metroplex taf sites through the 
entire outlook, though there is a non-zero potential for some 
MVFR stratus...mainly at gky and Dal. 


For Waco, there will be a continued potential for a few 
storms in vicinity of of the site over the next hour or so as an outflow 
boundary passes thru the taf site. For now, will have vcsh, but if 
activity continues to build, a brief window for thunderstorms in the vicinity or tempo ts 
may become necessary in the next 1-2 hours. Southeasterly winds 
could intensify upwards of 10 to 12 knots. If storms occur at the 
site, there will be a potential for reduced ceilings and 
visibility. Another round of intermittent stratus seems probable 
at Waco and the tempo group for MVFR cigs after 12 UTC Thursday 
looks good. VFR will likely return after 15 UTC. Overall 
convective potential should be a bit more limited Thursday with 
increased subsidence. 


24 


&& 




Short term... /issued 258 PM CDT Wed may 23 2018/ 
/tonight/ 


More of the same as last few previous night with regard to the 
synoptic pattern and trends. A broad weakness from eastern north 
and central Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley continues to 
remain stagnant. This area of disturbed weather remains trapped 
in weak steering flow on the northeast periphery of a subtropical 
ridge anchored over Mexico and deep south Texas. Combined with 
Richer column moisture across East Texas and The Ark-la-tex and we 
find isolated convection ongoing. One other feature of note was 
actually an impressive seabreeze boundary and numerous showers and 
storms across southeast Texas into far southwest Louisiana. Some 
of this activity may seep into our far southeast counties late 
this afternoon, but coverage should continue to lessen by early 
this evening as strong daytime heating is lost. 


Similar to recent days, I will linger 20-30 percent convective 
chances mainly east of I-35/35e through sunset, then dry out the 
forecast for the overnight hours. Low level flow through the 
boundary layer continues to be weak, so any stratus should be 
spotty at best and most likely across central Texas from daybreak 
through mid-morning Thursday. With the stagnant humid airmass in 
place and relatively light south-southeast winds 10 mph or less, 
look for low temperatures to have little variation with 60s 
expected across rural areas and lower 70s across urban areas. 


05/ 


&& 


Long term... /issued 258 PM CDT Wed may 23 2018/ 
/Thursday through the middle of next week/ 


A weak upper trough situated over eastern Texas and Louisiana 
will continue to provide scattered diurnal convection through 
Friday for areas generally along and east of the Interstate 35/35w 
corridor. Frequent lightning and brief heavy rain can be expected 
in the stronger storms, but activity should remain sub-severe. 
The rest of the region will remain hot and dry through Friday due 
to the presence of an upper level ridge. 


The pattern will begin to amplify Friday and Saturday as a 
tropical system in the Gulf strengthens and the ridge over Texas 
sharpens. This will result in a period of north flow aloft across 
the region, which could leave north and central Texas susceptible 
to southward moving thunderstorm complexes which may form in the 
Southern Plains. Hi-res/convective-allowing models are already 
hinting at one such complex dropping south of the Red River Friday 
night. Pops may need to be increased for areas along the Red 
River late Friday based on these trends, and we will need to 
monitor this pattern for the rest of the weekend and into early 
next week. 


Otherwise, temperatures will be on the increase as north and 
central Texas becomes located in the subsident region of the 
developing tropical system, which will be moving northward 
towards the Gulf Coast. Max temperatures will push the mid and 
upper 90s this weekend through the middle part of next week, with 
triple digits a good possibility across the western-most counties. 
The only relief would be in the form of any potential southward 
moving mcss, which we will monitor this weekend through early next 
week. Beyond Tuesday or Wednesday, a hot Summer-like pattern 
really takes hold as the ridge expands and dominates the central 
and Southern Plains. 


30 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth 70 91 71 93 73 / 10 10 5 10 5 
Waco 69 90 69 93 71 / 10 10 0 10 0 
Paris 69 88 68 90 70 / 30 30 10 30 10 
Denton 69 90 69 93 71 / 10 10 5 10 10 
McKinney 69 89 69 92 71 / 20 20 5 10 10 
Dallas 72 92 73 94 74 / 10 10 5 10 5 
Terrell 69 90 69 92 71 / 20 20 5 20 10 
Corsicana 70 88 70 91 71 / 20 20 5 20 10 
Temple 68 90 69 92 71 / 10 5 0 10 5 
Mineral Wells 67 91 67 94 69 / 5 5 5 5 5 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 



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