fxus62 kjax 170852 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
445 am EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 

Near term... 
today through tonight...strong cold front will continue pushing 
southward today while north-northeast flow will bring cloudy 
conditions to much of northeast Florida. Scattered showers with isolated 
embedded thunderstorms (early today) are expected over the southeast 
zones. Much cooler with highs in the 70s...roughly 15-20 degrees 
cooler than Monday. Most precip will be moving south of the area 
this afternoon. Still can't rule out isolated to scattered showers 
for the northeast Florida coastal areas due to low level convergence and 
moisture flux off Atlantic. For tonight...skies become mostly clear 
north zones and cooler/drier airmass will filter south across 
inland areas of southeast Georgia and the Suwannee River valley. On the 
northeast Florida coast...a threat of isolated to scattered showers will 
remain through night...with best chances south of St Augustine at 
around 50-60 percent. Temps will actually be a little below normal 
with lows around 50 degrees in Alma and Waycross. Otherwise...lows 
in the mid to upper 50s inland and near 70 along the coast in the 
onshore flow. 

Short term.../Wednesday through Friday/... 

High pressure will continue to the north this period, with enhanced 
onshore flow. A series of troughs are expected to develop in this 
onshore flow pattern and move west into the forecast area this 
period. As these troughs develop and move west gradient winds will 
increase and showers will move ashore. 

Temperatures will trend from near to slightly below normal to above 
normal this period. 


Long term.../Friday night through Tuesday/... 

The center of the surface high will drift from the north to the 
northeast of the region this period. With this pattern the flow will 
shift from the northeast to east then southeast. The southeast flow 
will lead to a warmer and more moist airmass with precipitation 
chances increasing through the period. The long range models diverge 
on timing of a cold front in the Monday into Tuesday time period. 
The main difference in timing will affect the temperature trend late 
in the period. At this point forecast will depict a cooler day for 
Tuesday than Monday, due to the potential front and expected 

Temperatures are expected to trend above normal for much of this 
period, then near normal Tuesday. 


IFR cigs may continue at vqq through sunrise then lift to 
MVFR. For remainder tafs, MVFR cigs will persist for the better half 
of today with cigs slowly lifting by this afternoon and evening. 
Brisk north northeast winds expected for coastal tafs with lower 
winds inland around gnv and vqq. Some improvement expected by this 
evening with VFR cigs expected as some drier air filters in north- 
northeast flow. 


Marine...strong north-northeast winds expected through 
Wednesday with Small Craft Advisory in place with gusts to gale force at times. 
Winds/seas will remain elevated through the remainder of the week 
as moderate to strong high pressure remains north of the area. 

Rip currents: high risk of rip currents due to strong 
northeasterly winds and rough and building surf. 


Coastal impacts...surf is expected to build to 5 to 7 
feet and have raised high surf advisory with this forecast package. 
Regarding water levels along the coast...though we are only touching 
action stage at a few sites at this time, the surge of winds and 
continued onshore flow will enable some minor coastal flooding 
potential by this evening. On the St Johns River, currently seeing 
minor flooding being reached at Racy Point and Main Street bridge 
with the high tide. Given the moderate to strong northeast winds 
these water levels will continue to be elevated and potentially 
rise through Wednesday. 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 72 50 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 
ssi 71 64 76 68 / 10 10 10 20 
jax 73 63 77 66 / 20 20 30 10 
sgj 75 69 79 70 / 40 50 40 30 
gnv 75 62 80 64 / 20 20 10 10 
ocf 76 65 82 65 / 30 20 20 10 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...high rip current risk through Wednesday evening for coastal 
Duval-coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns. 

Coastal flood advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for 
Clay-coastal Duval-Flagler-inland Duval-Putnam-St. Johns. 

Georgia...high rip current risk through Wednesday evening for coastal 
Camden-coastal Glynn. 

Am...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Thursday for waters from 
Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida from 20 to 60 nm- 
waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida from 20 to 
60 nm-waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach Florida from 20 
to 60 nm. 

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for coastal 
waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach Florida out 20 nm- 
coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine Florida 
out 20 nm-coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler 
Beach Florida out 20 nm. 

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