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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
328 am EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 


..hot with isolated storms today... 


Near term /today-tonight/... 


Today...ridge remains south of the region with low pressure trof 
over the southeast US, and this will keep a hot west-southwest flow 
across NE Florida/southeast Georgia. Storm activity will be limited today as dry 
slot of air pushes over the region as shown on satl imagery 
currently stretching from the Florida Panhandle and pushing into the 
Suwannee River valley with precip water amounts (pwats) as low as 
1.2", this drier airmass will mix down to the surface today and 
limit storm activity to just isolated coverage this afternoon and 
early evening (generally at 20% or less). The west-SW flow will also 
keep the Atlc coast sea breeze pinned along the coast once again 
and not much convection expected along it. This will push the heat 
all the way to the beaches with widespread Max temps into the 
Lower/Middle 90s and even some upper 90s in some locations. The 
slightly drier airmass mixing down dewpoints in the lower 70s will 
keep heat indices below advisory levels but will be around 105 
degrees in most locations through the afternoon hours with little 
relief expected from any storms. 


Tonight...while drier airmass in the west/SW flow will suppress any 
local storm activity this evening, a few of the hi-res models are 
trying to push a mesoscale convective system (mesoscale convective system) through the southeast 
US and possibly clipping the southeast Georgia counties late this evening to 
around midnight time frame. For now just keeping silent 10% pops 
in the forecast, but if this system tracks far enough south it 
could bring strong to possibly severe storms along the Altamaha 
river basin as far south as Waycross/Brunswick with strong/gusty 
winds as the main threat and is the reason that Storm Prediction Center has placed a 
portion of southeast Georgia in a marginal risk for severe storms tonight. 
Next round of 12z model runs this morning will likely help better 
define this potential threat. Otherwise expecting mostly clear to 
partly cloudy skies and muggy overnight lows in the mid/upper 70s 
area-wide. 


Short term /Sunday through Wednesday/... 


During the second half of the weekend, mid-level ridge axis 
stretched across the Gulf Coast and into the western Atlantic 
persists. Expecting another hot day to finish off the weekend, 
with the forecast heat indices ranging from 107-113 across the 
area. A heat advisory will be needed Sunday if this outlook 
remains unchanged. Additionally, the potential for more widespread 
showers and thunderstorms returns on Sunday during the afternoon 
and evening hours. This is a result of moisture returning back 
throughout the atmospheric column with precipitable water values approaching 2" 
across the whole area once again. 500 mb temperatures also begin 
to decrease leading to steeper mid-level lapse rates and larger 
cape profiles. Strong to severe storms potential increases 
throughout the remainder of the forecast period due to these 
factors. So, to start off the work week, the persistent ridge of 
high pressure over the southeast begins to weaken to the northeast 
as a mid-level trough propagates southeastward. While not 
directly impacting the weather on Monday, the trough will play a 
role Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Expecting the usual timing 
of convection during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday. 
For Tue and Wed, positive vorticity advection associated with the 
trough/front will promote the opportunity for several rounds of 
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. Despite 
northerly mid-level flow, precipitable water values are once again expected to 
be near or exceed 2" so localized flooding potential will increase 
in areas that receive multiple rounds. High temperatures in the 
mid 90s for most of the short term period however, there may be a 
chance high temperatures remain in the 80s/near 90 on Wednesday 
with the widespread cloud cover and remnant rainfall. 


Long term /Thursday through Saturday/... 


Southeast Ridge of high pressure continues to breakdown on the 
east side as another shortwave moves in from the Midwest on 
Thursday. As a result, daily convective periods during the 
afternoon and evening are expected with the potential for some 
lingering activity into the evening and overnight hours. Weak flow 
at the surface suggests a very active period as sea-breeze 
boundary collisions will assist thunderstorms development. 500 mb 
temperatures look to remain near or below climatological normals, 
which will continue the increased threat for strong storms. 
Temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal with high 
temperatures in the mid 90s and low temperatures in the mid to 
upper 70s. 


&& 


Aviation... 
mainly VFR conds today as storm chances at 20% or less and have 
left out any mention in the current taf package. West-southwest 
winds will increase to around 10 knots during the afternoon hours 
with a shift to the south at coastal taf sites of ssi/sgj. 


&& 


Marine... 
general southwest flow at 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 ft will 
continue through the weekend into Monday before weakening frontal 
boundary drifts south into the waters Tuesday with lighter and 
more variable flow with local sea breezes. 


Rip currents: low risk continues in the offshore flow with 
surf/breakers generally less than 2 feet. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 95 74 96 75 / 20 10 20 10 
ssi 91 78 93 78 / 20 10 20 20 
jax 96 76 96 76 / 20 10 30 20 
sgj 93 76 92 75 / 20 10 20 10 
gnv 94 75 95 75 / 20 10 40 30 
ocf 92 74 93 74 / 20 10 60 30 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Am...none. 



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