fxus64 kmob 152330 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
630 PM CDT sun Jul 15 2018 

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below. 


00z issuance...showers and a few storms over the area will 
continue to diminish during the evening hours. VFR conditions 
prevail overnight except for some possible patchy fog with MVFR 
conditions. Scattered to numerous showers and storms develop 
again on Monday across the area, and strong gusty winds are 
possible with the storms along with IFR/MVFR conditions. Light and 
variable winds tonight become southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots on 
Monday. /29 


Previous discussion... /issued 326 PM CDT sun Jul 15 2018/ 

Near term /now through Monday/...high pressure, surface and 
aloft, will gradually weaken through the near term. With 
continued high atmospheric moisture content, expect mainly 
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to continue. 
Convection developed much earlier today than on Saturday, and will 
linger into the early evening hours tonight for portions of the 
forecast area, especially inland areas. After most of the 
convection dying out overnight, expect another round of scattered 
to numerous showers and storms on Monday. With pwat's expected to 
by in the +2.0 inch range through the period, locally heavy 
rainfall will be possible. Two day quantitative precipitation forecast totals (today through 
monday) are forecast to be locally up to around 2.5 inches (with 
locally higher amounts possible), especially over the western 
Florida Panhandle totals region. Will have to monitor for minor, 
localized flooding concerns, but that threat should remain 
relatively low through Monday (but potentially increase later in 
the week as more unsettled conditions are expected to develop). 
Very hot and muggy conditions will continue. The earlier onset of 
convection today limited the heat in some areas today, but still 
very hot in other locations. Daytime highs in the lower 90s again 
expected on Monday, with heat indices again climbing into the 105 
to 107 degree range over a fairly widespread area, with a few 
locations again flirting with 110 degrees. Still not quite enough 
coverage of heat indices above 108- 110 to warrant a heat 
advisory, but will continue to monitor and to highlight in the 
hazardous weather outlook. Stays warm and muggy overnight tonight, 
with lows in the mid 70s inland and in the mid to upper 70s 
closer to the coast and perhaps even a few lower 80s along 
immediate beaches. 12/ds 

Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/...this forecast period, 
and the first part of the period below, is marked by the formation 
and passage of a progressive longwave trough whose main effects will 
be to lower static stabilities across our region as well as bring 
an increase in deep- layer moisture. Tomorrow night, things begin 
to change. Middle to lower tropospheric heights begin to fall as 
a 'forerunner' progressive trough [i.E., Compared to next one by 
late week (see long- term section below)] that had passed through 
the Ohio Valley earlier Monday settles southward. Tuesday should 
be wet for most of our counties as the aforementioned feature 
continues to progress southward over our area. There should be a 
notable 'filling-in' of precipitation as the day progresses day as 
deep- layer water vapor values peak and with ample deep and 
moderate forcing modulated by favorable 300-850 hpa differential 
divergence along and ahead of the trough. Wednesday's rainfall 
forecast could be tricky, however, since the GFS is a little more 
vigorous with the development of this feature vs. The European model (ecmwf). If 
the European model (ecmwf) solution verifies, the trough could stall and move 
slower. Either way, rain will fall most areas on Wednesday (but 
could begin drying sooner northwest of I-65 and north of Highway 84 - if the 
GFS is more accurate). Wednesday night, rain chances will remain 
highest near the coast (with perhaps some drying further inland) 
and the stage will be set for the next main large scale feature 
that will affect our region no doubt the diurnal temperature 
curves will be dampened given increased cloud cover and rain - but 
it will be very humid. Nighttime lows will trend more toward mid- 
and upper- 70s. /23 jmm 

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...in short, a more 
significant trough (and associated deep-layer forcing even for our 
region) - and then upper low - is forecast to form over the Ohio Valley 
on the front end of next weekend. As time progresses, geopotential heights 
once again lower and rain chances increase, particularly on Sunday. 
There is some disagreement over how deep the low will be (i.E., This 
time, the European model (ecmwf) being further south and with lower heights). There is 
also disagreement in the individual gefs members with T he 
evolution and timing of the upper low. Despite this, feel fairly 
confident our region will be wetter than normal next weekend and 
that maximum afternoon temperatures could once again be tapered by 
greater than average forecast cloud cover. The 7 day period could 
bring 2 to 5 inches of rain across our region (higher near the 
coast). Isolated seven day maximum rainfall totals will vary. /23 

Marine...a high pressure ridge axis will continue to extend east 
to west across the northern and central Gulf through early 
Tuesday, then shift south across the southern Gulf by late Tuesday 
into Wednesday as a low pressure trough settles into the interior 
southeastern states from the north. This pattern will then 
continue late week and into the weekend. A light, generally 
southwest flow is expected to continue through Tuesday, with a 
weak diurnal late night offshore flow near shore at times. By 
Wednesday, as the ridge breaks down, expect an increase in showers 
and storms over the marine area during the middle and late part 
of the week, as well as a slightly higher west wind and building 
seas. Winds could approach small craft exercise caution, especially 
offshore, mid to late week. 12/ds 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 

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