fxus64 kmob 250942 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
442 am CDT Tue Jul 25 2017 

Near term /now through Tuesday night/...an upper level trough 
extending from the southern Appalachian Mountains to Louisiana 
will move slowly eastward, and extend from East Georgia to 
southeast Mississippi by late tonight. An upper high pressure 
area will persist over the central and Southern Plains, but build 
slightly eastward into the region as a trough slides east. 
Meanwhile, a weak surface high pressure ridge extending westward 
from the western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula and 
northern Gulf of Mexico will remain intact, resulting in a light 
westerly wind through this evening, shifting to the northwest by 
late tonight. 

The combination of decreasing stability inland areas and weakness 
aloft will result in increasing precipitation throughout the day. 
Expect the rain to first develop across the western portion of the 
forecast area early this morning, and spread eastward into southwest 
Alabama through mid morning. By early afternoon, numerous showers 
and thunderstorms will cover much of the forecast area, except for 
scattered coverage along the coast. Some of the storms again will 
capable of producing heavy rainfall, with widespread one-quarter to 
one-half inch likley, and localized heavy rainfall of one to two 
inches possible. 

The shower and thunderstorm activity inland areas will dissipate 
through the evening hours, with isolated to scattered coverage 
persisting under the upper trough along the coast after midnight. 

High temperatures today should be about 3 to 5 degrees below normal 
due to increasing cloud and rain coverage, ranging from 84 to 88 
degrees. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s inland 
areas, and the mid 70s along the coastal sections. /22 

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...we begin to see a 
drying trend through midweek as the weak upper trough that 
provided US with wet weather Monday/Tuesday is pushed off to the 
east and high pressure builds from the Texas/OK Panhandle east into 
the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, high pressure over the 
northern Gulf maintains light and variable winds across the local 
area. Under this setup, expect a more typical summertime diurnal 
thunderstorm cycle to dominate, with isolated to scattered 
convection offshore each night/early morning moving onshore (with 
focus along residual outflow boundaries and the sea breeze) each 
afternoon/evening. Temperatures also begin to rise, especially 
heading into Thursday, as that aforementioned upper ridge begins 
to sag south over our area and mid/upper level subsidence keeps US 
drier and less cloudy. Expect temps to return to the low to mid 
90's inland and upper 80's to around 90 along the immediate coast 
each afternoon, with heat indices reaching the 102 to 107 degree 
range. Overnight lows remain muggy and in the low to mid 70's 
inland and upper 70's along the coast each night. /49 

Long term /Friday through Monday/...the hotter and drier 
conditions continue Friday as the upper ridge pushes south over 
our area and into the central Gulf. Expect typical summertime 
diurnal convection (similar to thursday) and highs in the low to 
mid 90's, with heat indices reaching the 102 to 107 degree range. 

In the wake of this upper ridge, a deepening trough over the 
eastern Continental U.S. Pushes a weak front towards our area from the north, 
leading to another increase in showers and thunderstorms Saturday 
into the weekend. The precise timing and magnitude of this trough 
remains a bit uncertain, with the GFS continuing a more 
aggressive solution and pushing the front through the area and 
into the Gulf Saturday night. This would result in brief period of 
drier weather Sunday/Monday, as opposed to the European model (ecmwf) which is 
slower and keeps the front north of the area, leading to a bit of 
a wetter pattern continuing into early next week. In either case, 
looking more and more like a wetter and cooler pattern to at least 
start the weekend, so have left likely pops in for Saturday, 
followed by chance Sunday and Monday. Temps likewise cool off with 
the return of the wetter pattern, with highs Saturday through 
Monday in the upper 80's. Lows remain in the low to mid 70's 
inland and mid to upper 70's along the coast each night. /49 


Marine...a ridge of high pressure will gradually build across the 
central Gulf of Mexico this week with light to moderate west to 
southwest wind flow prevailing over the marine area. Winds, waves 
and seas will be higher near storms. Frequent lightning activity 
likely in and near any of the stronger marine storms as well. A few 
waterspouts remain possible. Slight increase in seas late in the 
period. /22 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 87 73 94 75 / 60 30 40 20 
Pensacola 88 76 90 77 / 50 30 40 30 
Destin 86 77 91 79 / 50 30 50 40 
Evergreen 86 72 92 74 / 80 30 30 20 
Waynesboro 84 72 94 73 / 80 30 30 10 
Camden 86 73 92 74 / 70 30 30 10 
Crestview 88 73 94 74 / 70 30 40 20 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 

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