fxus64 kmob 180549 aab 

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
1149 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017 

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below. 


06z issuance...VFR condition through about 18.09z for bfm, and 
through about 18.10z for pns. MVFR visibilities (5sm) already 
being reported at mob. MVFR ceilings (2500 to 3000 feet) will 
then occur after these times at all taf sites through early 
Saturday morning as low clouds develop. Both pns and bfm should 
see ceilings rise to back to VFR levels (3500 feet) though early 
Saturday evening, but mob should stay at MVFR levels (3000 feet). 
MVFR ceilings (2500 to 3000 feet) will then occur at all taf 
sites through the remainder of the forecast, along with showers in 
the vicinity. Winds will be mostly south to southeast at 5 to 8 
knots through early Saturday morning, increasing from the south to 
southwest 12 to 16 knots through 19.06z. /22 


Previous discussion... /issued 349 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/ 

Near term /now through Saturday/...a broad upper ridge of high 
pressure over Texas and northern Mexico, stretching east over the 
western Gulf, will shift south through Sat afternoon in response to 
a vigorous short wave trough and surface cold front moving eastward 
from the central rockies to the mid to lower Mississippi River 
valleys through Sat afternoon. This system remains progressive and 
positively tilted through Sat afternoon with limited forcing in the 
mid levels further south along the northern Gulf Coast through Sat 
afternoon. Near the surface a closed low tracks east across the 
Central Plains to south of the Great Lakes with the attendant cold 
front reaching the MS/la border by late Sat afternoon. With this 
pattern expect increasing clouds tonight through Sat afternoon with 
a slight chance of rainshowers for most areas by Sat afternoon. A 
light southeast wind will become better developed late this 
afternoon and tonight becoming mostly south and building during the 
day on Sat. With the better onshore flow better low level moisture 
is expected to advect inland overnight through Sat afternoon 
possibly leading to some patchy for most inland areas mostly before 
sunrise Sat morning. With better mixing expected tonight the threat 
for dense fog is lower compared to last night. 

Temperatures will be generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than last 
night ranging from the low to mid 50s to the east and north and the 
upper 50s to lower 60s to the west and along the immediate coast. 
Highs Sat will range from the mid to upper 70s for most areas. 

Short term /Saturday night through Monday night/...a cold front 
moves through the area Saturday night, with showers along and 
ahead of the front ending from northwest to southeast by early 
Sunday morning. Low temps Saturday night range from low 40's 
inland to mid 50's along the immediate coast. In the wake of this 
front, northerly winds usher in a cooler and drier airmass, with 
afternoon highs Sunday only reaching the upper 50's to low 60's. 
Expect colder lows Sunday night as clear skies and light winds 
will allow plenty of radiational cooling, with temps dropping into 
the low to mid 30's across much of the area. Some inland locations 
could see temps dip just below freezing around sunrise early 
Monday morning. Highs on Monday once again range from upper 50's 
to low 60's, before lows in the upper 30's to mid 40's Monday 
night as light surface winds shift to more easterly and a weak 
upper shortwave bring an increase in cloud cover. /49 

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...rain chances increase once 
again Tuesday as a vigorous upper shortwave digs into the lower 
Mississippi River valley and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. At this 
point, the upper level jet splits, with the southern stream trough 
developing a surface low over the central Gulf while the northern 
stream remains over the Midwest and Great Lakes. Models are 
in fair agreement with another shortwave embedded within the 
northern stream pushing a front through our local area Tuesday 
night. This front eventually stalls well offshore and acts as a 
sort of barrier, keeping the low out over the central Gulf. 
Heading through midweek, yet another impulse in the northern 
stream digs across the eastern conus, this time falling into phase 
with the southern stream trough. The resulting deeper longwave 
pattern then pushes the central Gulf low east towards the Florida 
Peninsula and away from the local area. 

Ultimately, the weather along our portion of the Gulf Coast will 
depend on the track of the upper trough (and subsequent surface 
low) over the Gulf. Current model trends have it far enough south 
for the bulk of precipitation to remain offshore. As the low 
tracks east-northeast across the Gulf, cloud cover and rain 
chances would increase along and east of I-65 Thursday and 
Friday, with areas west seeing fewer clouds and drier weather. 

In terms of temperature, expect temps around seasonal on Tuesday, 
with highs in the upper 60's to around 70 Tuesday afternoon and 
lows in the mid 40's to low 50's Tuesday night. In the wake of 
Tuesday night's front, temps drop a few degrees below-seasonal 
Wednesday through Friday. Highs range from low to mid 60's, and 
lows range from low to mid 40's. /49 

Marine...high pressure will continue to shift east to the eastern 
Seaboard and western Atlantic through Sat in response to a strong 
cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move 
across the marine area late Sat night through Sun morning leading to 
a strong offshore flow, occurring throughout most of the day on 
Sunday. Frequent gusts to gale force, occurring mostly over the open 
Gulf waters, will also be possible in the wake of the front early 
Sunday. A moderate south to southwest flow is also expected ahead of 
the front by mid to late Sat afternoon. Northerly winds and seas 
will gradually subside Sun night through early Mon as a broad 
surface ridge of high pressure builds from the lower Mississippi 
River valley to the southeast states through Mon afternoon. A light 
onshore flow is expected by late Mon shifting mostly north to 
northeast Tue through Thu in response to another cold front moving 
south over the northern and central Gulf. An area of low pressure is 
expected to form along the front over the Gulf moving mostly east of 
the marine area Thu through Sat. 32/ee 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
GM...gale watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for 

Small Craft Advisory from 9 am to 6 PM CST Sunday for gmz650-670- 

Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST 
Sunday for gmz630>635-655. 


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