fxus64 kmob 190002 aaa 

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
602 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018 

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below. 


00z issuance...VFR conditions through 20.00z. Winds will be north 
to northeast 5 knots or less through 19.15z becoming variable 5 
knots or less through 20.00z. 32/ee 


Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018/ 

Near term /now through Friday/...axis of large dome of cold high 
pressure eases eastward over the deep south tonight. As this 
occurs, winds become light to calm and along with very low 
dewpoints and clear skies, a favorable radiational cooling 
component sets up resulting in another very cold night. Overnight 
lows look to once again plunge to hard freeze criteria over much 
of the area, except for the immediate coastal zones. Thus, hard 
freeze warning remains in effect thru late tonight continuing into 
mid am Friday. Friday's highs moderate a bit more than today as 
the axis of the surface high slips further east. /10 

Short term /Friday night through Sunday night/...high pressure 
will gradually shift east through the end of the week as an upper 
trough approaches from the west. The shortwave moves across the 
area on Saturday, however dry conditions persist due to the lack 
of significant moisture return. Temperatures will continue to 
rebound through the short term as southerly flow develops. Highs 
on Saturday and Sunday will climb into the low to mid 60s. Lows 
will trend above normal Saturday and Sunday night. /13 

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...a deep upper low and sfc 
low pressure will move into the Great Lakes on Monday with a 
trailing cold front approaching the area. The cold front will move 
across the area Monday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, 
rain chances will increase late Sunday night and Monday along 
with embedded isolated thunderstorms. Widespread rainfall amounts 
around one-half of an inch should occur, with locally higher 
amounts near one inch possible. Patchy to areas of fog should 
resume early next week ahead of the cold front. A fast moving 
shortwave brings another chance of rain on Wednesday. /13 

Marine...as high pressure builds east over the deep south to 
close out the week, winds trend lighter along with seas lowering and 
generally ranging from 1 to 2 feet over the next couple days. Next 
cold front approaches from the west on Monday bringing an increased 
chance of showers and embedded storms across the marine area. Ahead 
of the front, a more established onshore wind allows a gradual build 
in seas late in the weekend continuing into Monday. Another 
potential concern is with warm, moist Gulf air flowing atop cooler 
water near the coast, dense fog formation over the nearshore waters 
could pose some problems late this weekend. /10 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...hard freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am CST Friday for 

Florida...hard freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am CST Friday for 

MS...hard freeze warning from midnight tonight to 9 am CST Friday for 


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