fxus64 kmob 230129 aab 

Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
829 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 

Discussion...see updated information for land areas below. 


Update...a narrow northeast to southwest oriented pre-frontal 
band of cold cloud tops => showers and storms was beginning to 
enter the northwest zones this evening. There are pockets of 
enhanced lightning in some of the storm clusters approaching 
interior southeast Mississippi. Latest mesoscale analysis shows 
storms approaching a favored area of instability where mid-level 
lapse rates ~7c/km was positioned over the interior portions of 
the forecast area. This favors maintaining the marginal risk for 
isolated severe storms. Main threats continue to be localized 
damaging wind gusts in excess of around 60 mph. Small hail also 
remains a possibility in any of the more robust storm updrafts. 


Previous discussion... /issued 646 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/ 

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below. 

00z issuance...as frontal boundary approaches the region from the 
northwest, potential of shra/tsra increases over the interior this 
evening and late in the evening along the coast. Best timing 
at mob/bfm looks to be between 2305/2308z and eastward into pns 
during the early am hours Sunday. Cigs lower to IFR categories and 
vsbys lower to MVFR categories with the passage of convection. 
Severe weather threat is marginal along the Gulf Coast. /10 

Previous discussion... /issued 250 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/ 

Near term /now through Sunday/...surface high pressure ridge over 
the area weakens today as a cold front approaches from the west. 
This cold front is expected to be moving into our interior southeast 
Mississippi counties this evening, generally around 9-10 PM. The 
front should be approaching the I-65 corridor by around midnight to 
1 am Sunday, and then be clearing our forecast area by mid to late 
morning Sunday and be east of the region by around noon (or shortly 
thereafter). Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
developing in advance of the front this afternoon, all of them to 
the west of our area at this time. We do expect some of these 
showers and storms to move into (or develop) over our interior 
southeast Mississippi counties late this afternoon (generally after 
around 4 PM or so) as they become a little more organized out ahead 
of the approaching front, with peak late afternoon heating and 
instability. These initial storms will continue through late 
evening, mainly over interior southeast Mississippi and southwest 
Alabama to the west of I-65. It is some of these late afternoon 
and evening storms that will have a marginal threat of becoming 
briefly severe (on an isolated basis) with damaging winds (up to 
60 mph) and small hail being the primary threat. The Storm 
Prediction Center has most of our area outlooked with a marginal 
risk of severe weather this evening, but the overall severe threat 
looks to be very limited. Additional scattered showers and storms 
will sweep east across the area overnight in association with the 
actual frontal passage, but severe parameters will be very low 
and none of the late night storms are expected to be severe. A few 
lingering showers and storms east of I-65 in south central 
Alabama and over the western Florida Panhandle Sunday morning, but 
rains ending and skies clearing during the afternoon. Low 
temperatures tonight ranging from the mid and upper 60s 
northwestern zones to the mid and upper 60s coastal and 
southeastern zones. Cooler on Sunday, with lower humidities too, 
in the wake of the cold front. Highs tomorrow afternoon ranging 
from the mid to upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s coastal and 
southeast. 12/ds 

Short term /Sunday night through Tuesday night/...an upper low over 
the southeastern states moves slowly to just off the northeast 
states through the period while an associated surface low over 
Georgia likewise moves into the western Atlantic. A northerly 
surface flow over the forecast area continues through Monday 
night, with a light return flow developing on Tuesday ahead of a 
system advancing into the plains. Will have dry conditions through 
the period. Lows Sunday night range from the upper 40s well inland 
to the lower 50s closer to the coast, then trend warmer through 
Tuesday night to range from the upper 50s well inland to the lower 
60s at the coast. Highs on Monday will be mostly in the mid to upper 
70s followed by highs mostly in the mid 80s on Tuesday except for 
lower 80s near the coast. /29 

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...an upper trof over the 
plains ejects off across the Great Lakes region early in the 
period with an associated surface low well to the north bringing a 
weak trailing cold front into the interior Gulf Coast states late 
Wednesday night. The frontal boundary returns northward as a warm 
front Thursday into Friday as another system advances from the 
western states into the plains. Have opted to continue with a dry 
forecast through Friday, although a few showers may develop each 
afternoon, then for Saturday moderate isentropic lift and improved 
deep layer moisture will support isolated to scattered showers and 
storms. Highs on Wednesday will range from the mid 80s inland to 
upper 70s at the coast then trend warmer by Friday with mid to 
upper 80s inland and lower 80s closer to the coast, with slightly 
lower highs for Saturday. Lows Wednesday night range from the 
lower 60s inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast, then trend 
warmer for Thursday night and Friday night with mid 60s inland 
with near 70 at the coast. /29 

Marine...a moderate onshore flow will gradually increase this 
evening in advance of an approaching cold front, then shift to a 
moderate offshore flow by Sunday morning. A moderate to occasionally 
strong offshore flow will then continue Sunday afternoon through 
Sunday night (possibly into early monday). Exercise caution 
conditions are expected, primarily on Sunday night, with winds up to 
15 to 20 knots and seas offshore possibly reaching 5 to 6 feet. 
Winds and seas subside Tuesday and gradually become more onshore 
through midweek. 12/ds 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 

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