fxus64 kmob 231122 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
622 am CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below. 


12z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 
hours. /49 


Previous discussion... /issued 344 am CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/ 

Near term /now through Friday night/...dry northwest flow 
continues aloft as an upper ridge over the Great Plains begins to 
flatten and push east over the local area. Mostly clear skies and 
zero pops expected across the area through the near term as a 
result. Meanwhile, surface high pressure pushes to our east, 
veering low- level winds from easterly to southerly by tonight. 
With cool north winds ending and onshore flow returning, a warming 
and moistening trend begins as temperatures reach the low to mid 
70s across much of the area today and only dip into the low to mid 
50s tonight. /49 

Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...a well defined 
shortwave over the Central Plains, embedded within a large upper 
ridge over the central states, gradually weakens while moving to 
the east central coast through Saturday night. An associated 
surface low over the Central Plains meanwhile moves across the 
interior southeast states and brings a trailing cold front into 
the interior Gulf Coast states in the process. The large upper 
ridge builds into the eastern states during the remainder of the 
period while the surface low continues off into the western 
Atlantic. A surface ridge strengthens over the East Coast states 
meanwhile which pushes the frontal boundary through the forecast 
area as a "back-door" cold front. Will have slight chance pops 
returning well inland late Saturday night as a shortwave is 
expected to move across the area while the frontal boundary moves 
into the interior Gulf Coast states. Pops increase somewhat over 
the northeastern portion of the forecast area on Sunday as the 
back door front moves into the northeastern portion of the 
forecast area. Despite the front moving through the remainder of 
the area Sunday night, the front will be weak and the amount of 
measurable precipitation is uncertain. For now have just stayed 
with small pops over the northeastern portion of the area where 
modest isentropic lift will be present. /29 

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...the upper ridge over the 
eastern states slowly moves off into the western Atlantic during 
the period as an upper trof advances from the west and into the 
central states. A surface low will have developed over the Central 
Plains in response to the approaching upper trof and moves well 
off to the north through Tuesday night, meanwhile bringing a 
trailing cold front to near the mid Mississippi River valley. A 
surface low is expected to develop on the frontal boundary while 
moving across the lower Mississippi River valley Wednesday into 
Wednesday night. The surface low strengthens while moving off to 
the north on Thursday, and meanwhile brings a cold front into the 
forecast area. Have continued with small pops for the entire area 
on Monday then for the southwestern half of the area on Tuesday as 
modest isentropic lift will support isolated convection. Slight 
chance to chance pops follow for Wednesday over the western half 
of the area then pops increase to likely generally west of I-65 
with chance pops further to the east as the front nears the 
western portion of the area. While forecast confidence is rather 
low this late in the period, there looks to be some potential for 
a squall line to advance into the forecast area ahead of the front 
on Thursday which will need to be monitored on upcoming shifts. 

Marine...high pressure pushes east of the area today and tonight, 
shifting winds from easterly to southerly. Light to moderate onshore 
flow then continues through the weekend as high pressure builds over 
the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf. Moderate to strong southeast 
flow and building seas expected early to mid next week as the 
gradient tightens between high pressure to the east and developing 
low pressure to the west. A front then passes through late next 
week, with moderate offshore winds developing in its wake. /49 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 

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