fxus64 kmob 171711 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
1111 am CST Sat Nov 17 2018 

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below. 


18z issuance...VFR conditions and light winds prevail through the 
24 hour period. /49 


Previous discussion... /issued 353 am CST Sat Nov 17 2018/ 

Near term /now through Saturday night/...surface high pressure ridge axis 
remains centered over the forecast area through tonight, bringing 
tranquil conditions as a cool, dry and stable airmass prevails 
across the region. The only available moisture, while slight, is in 
the west-southwest flow aloft and a few high, thin cirrus clouds are 
possible. Otherwise mostly sunny skies expected today and mostly 
clear tonight. Only real change during the near term from past 
several days will be a gradually moderating temperature trend. Max 
temperatures today will still be below normal by a couple of degrees 
in most locations, generally in the mid 60s across the area. Lows 
tonight within a degree or two of normal, ranging from the upper 30s 
and lower 40s over interior locations and mid/upper 40s at the 
coast. 12/ds 

Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...positive tilt upper 
trof moving eastward over the central/Southern Plains Sunday 
pivots across the Ohio and lower river MS River Valley Monday into 
Monday night. This feature allows enough support for the passage 
of a surface frontal boundary by Monday night. Some gradual return 
of moisture pulls northward ahead of the front Monday, but 
overall frontal forcing is weak, so will keep chances of showers 
minimal (10% or less). Daytime highs trend closer to seasonal 
normals. Overnight lows moderate. /10 

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...large surface high pressure 
expands over the eastern Continental U.S. Into the middle of the week. The 
17.00z global spectral models continue to advertise a wave of low 
pressure in the formative stages off the Texas coast Wednesday which 
tracks generally eastward over the Gulf. Quite a bit of spread 
with the models on eventual track and integrity of this feature to 
close out the week. Return of a chance of showers late week look 
to be more influenced by the eastward passage of mid level 
impulses in the westerlies aloft. /10 

Marine...a light to occasionally moderate north to northeast flow 
will continue over the weekend and into the early part of the 
upcoming week. Winds will increase slightly with a moderate, more 
easterly flow expected by midweek as a storm system begins to 
develop over the western Gulf. Seas expected to be 2 feet or less 
into the early part of next week, increasing slightly to up to 3 
feet well offshore by mid week. 12/ds 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations
Back to forecast page
Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)

Units: English | Metric

Find the Weather for any City, State or Zipcode, or Country:

U.S. State List | Severe Weather | Tropical Storms | Ski Conditions
United States | Canada | Central America | South America | Asia | Europe | Australia | Africa | Islands

Weather Underground

© Copyright 2018
The Weather Company, LLC