000 
fxus64 kmob 250301 aab 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
1001 PM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018 


Discussion...see updated information for land areas below. 


&& 


Update...have updated to drop pops to slight chance generally 
over interior areas while chance to good chance pops continue 
overnight for the southern portion of the area. Made other minor 
adjustments. /29 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 650 PM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018/ 


Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below. 


Aviation... 
00z issuance... 
though majority VFR conditions are expected for our taf sites 
tonight and overnight, lingering showers with isolated 
thunderstorms are still ongoing in the eastern most part of the 
forecast area. These storms should dissipate later tonight. By mid 
morning another round of thunderstorms is expected with generally 
southeastern wind flow. MVFR conditions will be possible with 
these scattered storms. Dj/17 


Previous discussion... /issued 311 PM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018/ 


Near term /now through Tuesday/...not a lot of change in the near 
term, with a rather wet pattern continuing through Tuesday. Deep 
layer ridging will continue poke into the region from the east 
through Tuesday, with the forecast area along the western 
periphery of the ridging. With this setup, deep layer onshore flow 
will continue to provide ample moisture for the continuation of 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. There will be 
some decrease in convective coverage this evening and into the 
early morning hours with the lack of daytime heating and 
instability, but marine convective development late tonight will 
begin to move north in from the Gulf toward daybreak on Tuesday. 
As a result, after lowering rain chances this evening, chances 
will increase once again by early Tuesday morning, and become 
even more likley and spread inland during the day. A few showers 
and storms could have strong gusty winds in the 25 to 35 mph 
range, as has been the case today, but main concern will be storms 
again be training repeatedly across the same areas, and isolated 
instances of heavy rainfall and minor nuisance flooding could be 
possible. Lows tonight expected to be in the low to mid 70s, highs 
Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s. 12/ds 


Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/...the weak upper 
ridge over the northern Gulf and deep south pushes southeast ahead 
of an advancing longwave trough over the central and northern Continental U.S.. 
mid and upper level flow shifts to more southwesterly over the local 
area as a result, maintaining the deeply saturated and moderately 
unstable airmass currently in place. Furthermore, a cold front 
associated with the deepening longwave trough to our northwest 
gradually pushes southeast and stalls near the local area. Given 
this, am expecting numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms 
to continue across much of the area both Wednesday and Thursday, 
with at least some scattered showers lingering through overnight 
hours as well. Greater coverage in rain and clouds will keep high 
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Lows dip into the upper 60s to 
low 70s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast. /49 


Long term /Friday through Monday/...the upper level pattern over the 
central and northern Continental U.S. Becomes more zonal as we head into the 
weekend, allowing the upper ridge that had pushed south over the 
Gulf during the short term to lift back north over the local area. 
At the surface, the front remains stalled just north of the local 
area through Friday before weakening and possibly pushing through to 
the coast as high pressure builds back over the western Atlantic and 
southeastern states. Thus, can expect a gradual return back to more 
seasonal rain chances by early next week, with scattered showers and 
storms over the weekend and a more isolated coverage by Monday. 
Temperatures also rise back into the upper 80s and lower 90s given 
the decreasing clouds and rain. /49 


Marine...a surface ridge of high pressure stretching southwest 
from the mid-Atlantic states down into the eastern Gulf of Mexico 
will continue through midweek, but gradually weaken late in the 
week as a cold front moves into the interior southeast and stalls. 
High pressure will rebuild over the marine area over the weekend. 
A light to occasionally moderate south to southeasterly flow will 
continue over the coastal waters through late week, but become 
more easterly over the weekend as the high pressure rebuilds to 
the north. Little change in seas expected. 12/ds 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 



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