000 
fxus64 kmrx 222003 
afdmrx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee 
303 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 


Short term...(tonight and tuesday)...some uncertainty still 
remains as we begin the short term period. The question is whether 
another line of showers develops behind the line that is currently 
on radar and how great of coverage there will be. The hrrr and 
rap both continue to show this second line, as well as the NAM but 
to lesser degree. Based off that, think the current line of 
showers continues eastward while slowly weakening and then another 
line of showers develops right along the front, due to strong 
frontogentic forcing, around 00z and moves into our area around 
03z. This secondary line of showers pushes east and out of the 
area early tomorrow morning with the frontal passage. Soundings 
suggest there is still the potential for an isolated storm or two 
generally south of Knoxville during this time so will leave 
mention of slight chance of thunderstorms in forecast. 
Temperatures will be slow to fall this evening as we remain under 
the influence of strong southerly flow, which will also allow the 
strong and gusty winds to persist across the high terrain. Have 
extended the current Wind Advisory from 09z until 11z to make sure 
the front has exited before it expires. 


Temperatures hard to figure out over the short term. Very likely 
most places will see a midnight high as temps will struggle to warm 
much tomorrow under cold air advection. Currently have temps warming 
a few degrees from tomorrow morning through early afternoon but then 
slowly falling the rest of the day. Will keep in slight 
chance/chance pops in for our northern areas tomorrow as wrap around 
moisture swings in behind the front. Most places will see liquid 
precip but the highest peaks will transition over to snow as temps 
drop below freezing later in the day. Expecting little to no 
accumulation. Breezy conditions remain tomorrow behind the front 
across all locations with wind gusts around 20 mph down in the 
valley. 




Long term...(tuesday night through sunday)...models start out in 
decent agreement, but agreement suffers late and run to run 
consistency is lacking. Some low level moisture will linger at 
the beginning of the period in the cold advection as some short 
wave energy brushes the area. There may be some light 
precipitation mainly higher terrain Tuesday night into Wednesday, 
although moisture looks very shallow and there is some question as 
to whether it will be cold enough in the cloud layer for ice 
crystals to form. May be just some drizzle or freezing drizzle but 
for now will keep it as snow showers with fairly low pops. Should 
be dry Thursday and Friday with surface high pressure/upper 
ridging taking control. Significant timing issues given model 
inconsistencies with the next frontal system which will affect the 
region over the weekend. Will keep highest pops Saturday night 
but will have pops spread out mainly Saturday through Sunday. 
Should be a mainly rain event. Will linger low pops into Monday 
given timing uncertainties. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 40 49 32 51 / 70 10 10 0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 41 47 32 45 / 80 10 10 10 
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 40 47 32 46 / 70 10 10 10 
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 39 47 29 43 / 80 20 20 10 


&& 


Mrx watches/warnings/advisories... 
NC...none. 
Tennessee...Wind Advisory until 6 am EST Tuesday for Blount Smoky Mountains- 
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-northwest Carter-Sevier Smoky 
Mountains-southeast Carter-southeast Greene-southeast 
Monroe-Unicoi. 


Virginia...Wind Advisory until 6 am EST Tuesday for wise. 


&& 



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