fxus64 kmrx 260729 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Morristown Tennessee 
329 am EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 

Short term (today and tonight)...much of the forecast area was 
covered by low clouds on Tuesday which limited warming. However, 
subsiding air within a ridge of high pressure over the eastern 
U.S. Should keep skies full of sunshine forecast area wide today. 
The insolation and a strengthening southerly flow will boost 
temperatures a good ten degrees or more above highs reached on 
Tuesday. The Ozarks short wave and associated cool front will 
make its way east toward the Cumberland Plateau tonight and may 
move far enough east for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm 
mainly over the plateau around sunrise. 

Long term (thursday through tuesday)...timing of storms 
associated with a cold front appears to be slightly faster in the 
latest model runs. Both the NAM and GFS bring precip into our 
western sections by 12z Thursday. The morning timing of the 
storm's arrival and the NE track of the system should result in a 
weakening trend of storms as they move into east Tennessee. Likely pops 
will be maintained in the forecast, but quantitative precipitation forecast should be relatively 
light with just a marginal threat of severe storms. 

A drier trend has developed in the models for Friday as the Atlantic 
ridge builds westward and disturbances in the SW flow aloft will 
stay to our northwest. Will lower pops Friday to just a slight 
chance as a few isolated afternoon storms cannot be ruled out yet. 
Temperatures will be well above normal in the deep SW flow, with 
highs reaching the upper 80s by Saturday. 

A closed low is shown by the models to track NE across the plains 
states on Sunday, with storms ahead of the cold front affecting our 
area late in the day. As with the previous system, its northeast 
motion will result in a weakening trend for US as the best forcing 
passes to our north. With good model agreement, will have likely 
pops for Sunday night. A cooler air mass finally builds in behind 
this system for Tuesday, bringing highs closer to normal. 


Point temps/pops... 
Chattanooga Airport, Tennessee 82 63 77 55 / 0 30 60 10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, Tennessee 84 62 79 56 / 0 10 60 10 
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 84 63 76 53 / 0 10 60 10 
Tri Cities Airport, Tennessee 81 56 79 53 / 0 0 50 20 


Mrx watches/warnings/advisories... 

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