Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
248 PM CDT Thursday Aug 25 2016 


Discussion... 
a stalled front from west-central to northeast Oklahoma will be 
the primary focus for convection this afternoon, this evening, and 
overnight. We already have echoes on area radars, and these echoes 
are all currently south of the front. This convection will likely 
remain isolated and mostly non-severe. The more robust convection 
is expected to form more like the storms that are now over the 
Texas Panhandle, and should hold off until about 4 or 5 PM in our 
forecast area. 


The storms this evening will likely produce very heavy rain, and 
forecast models have consistently shown the rainfall maximum 
roughly along a line from Elk City to Enid, where heavy rain has 
already fallen during the past few days. Flash flood guidance is 
relatively low in this area, so we elected to issue a Flood Watch 
this morning (for this evening and overnight). For this forecast 
issuance, we will add Beckham and Washita counties, because of a 
strong signal of heavy rain in the short-range models, even 
though their flood guidance is higher. 


Storms should fill in from southwest/west-central Oklahoma to 
north-Central/Northeast Oklahoma during the evening, then begin to 
weaken after midnight. The storms should gradually die off as the 
morning progresses on Friday. 


After this event, it appears that the majority of rain will come 
from isolated or scattered showers and storms occurring with weak 
waves aloft, or just localized areas of lift + instability. There 
is not much to go on to fine-tune the rain chances beyond tomorrow 
morning, so the forecast is essentially what model guidance has 
provided. 


Otherwise, the forecast is relatively uneventful. Expect seasonal 
temperatures, relatively high dew points, and generally light 
winds (outside thunderstorms) through the middle of next week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 70 90 70 91 / 40 20 10 20 
Hobart OK 68 91 70 93 / 50 10 20 20 
Wichita Falls Texas 71 92 71 93 / 10 20 10 10 
gage OK 64 88 66 92 / 70 30 20 20 
Ponca City OK 69 88 70 91 / 60 40 30 20 
Durant OK 72 89 71 92 / 10 40 10 30 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for okz006>008-011-012- 
014>017-021-022. 


Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


04/23 



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