000 
fxus64 koun 272255 
afdoun 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
555 PM CDT Sat may 27 2017 


Discussion... 
the may 28-29, 2017 00 UTC taf discussion follows: 


&& 


Aviation... 
generally expect VFR conditions to continue at most terminals 
through the taf period. A cold front continues to shift southward 
this evening and has already passed through kgag/kwwr/kpnc/kcsm. 
The cold front will pass through all terminals tonight. As the 
cold front shifts southward, thunderstorms could impact kokc and 
koun this evening. Any thunderstorms could be strong to severe 
with gusty, erratic winds, large hail, and temporary ceiling 
restrictions. Gusty northerly winds are expected behind the front, 
especially late this evening and overnight. 


There could be a brief period of MVFR ceilings behind the cold 
front. Currently, greatest confidence for lowered ceilings is 
across central Oklahoma (kokc/koun) where tempos were included 
after midnight. 


Northerly winds are expected to continue through the end of the 
taf period. 


Mahale 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 236 PM CDT Sat may 27 2017/ 


Discussion... 
complex weather scenario for this evening and tonight. Looking at 
as many of the models as possible today, they all have a bit of a 
different opinion on how things will play out. 


It appears that most likely of these scenarios will be; we will 
see some isolated convection develop, initially in our area near 
or just ahead of dryline across south central Oklahoma in the 5 to 
6 PM time frame. These storms will develop in an environment that 
will be very unstable and will likely produce very large hail, 
damaging winds and torrential rainfall. Also, a tornado risk will 
exist, if a storm can either develop in an area of backed/stronger 
surface winds, or with the extreme instability that exists, can 
locally enhance the low level helicity/shear. 


Elsewhere, storms may then try to develop south and west along an 
advancing cold front from Missouri southwest along the I-44 
corridor. Many of the models have difficulty in developing storms 
as far west as central Oklahoma in the early evening hours. 
However, by late evening, the models do develop storms along the 
cold front across southern Oklahoma. 


This would produce multiple rounds of heavy across parts of 
southern Oklahoma, where they received heavy rain late last week. 
Because of this possibility, will likely issue Flood Watch for 
portions of south central and southeast Oklahoma overnight. 


Some lingering activity will be possible Sunday morning across 
southeast Oklahoma, but should clear the area soon enough to 
result in a pleasant day Sunday and this will continue on Memorial 
Day Monday. 


Throughout much of the upcoming week we see weak waves make their 
way through the Southern Plains, which bring/continue rain 
chances across the area. Some risk of severe may exist from day to 
day, but expect it to remain on the lower/marginal category. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 64 80 57 85 / 40 10 0 0 
Hobart OK 62 82 56 87 / 10 0 0 0 
Wichita Falls Texas 66 83 59 87 / 40 10 0 0 
gage OK 56 79 53 84 / 10 0 0 10 
Ponca City OK 63 80 56 85 / 20 0 0 0 
Durant OK 70 81 61 85 / 80 20 10 0 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...heat advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for okz019-020-025>030- 
039>041-045-046-050. 


Flood Watch through Sunday morning for okz032-040>043-046>048- 
050>052. 


Texas...none. 
&& 



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