000 
fxus64 koun 301700 
afdoun 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
1200 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017 


Aviation...30/18z taf issuance... 
sharp gradient between MVFR and VFR ceilings this afternoon from 
northwestern to southeastern Oklahoma. This shield of MVFR stratus 
will continue to build eastward through the afternoon, clearing 
kokc and koun through 19 and 20z. Kpnc will remain at MVFR through 
nearly the first half of the period, as the upper low continues to 
churn eastward along the Ozark Plateau. North and northwesterly 
winds will relax through the evening as surface high pressure 
builds in. Overnight, winds will shift to the east, with MVFR 
stratus expected to develop in the early morning hours, Friday. 
Easterly winds are conducive to some patchy fog development, but 
given soundings, expect stratus to be the more likely MVFR 
culprit, but have added some tempos to locations where MVFR fog 
may develop Friday morning. 


Kurtz 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 641 am CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/ 


Discussion... 
the 12z aviation discussion follows.... 


Aviation... 
a large vertically-stacked cyclone centered over eastern Kansas 
will provide brisk northwest winds across the region today. Low 
clouds, with bases mainly around 1,500 ft, will also circulate 
around the low pressure area, with the southwestern edge 
gradually lifting to the northeast during the day. By sunset, all 
taf sites should be clear, and winds will have diminished 
abruptly. Then, overnight, the wind direction will veer gradually 
toward east and southeast as another storm system to our west 
begins to exert its influence. With recent rains, light winds, and 
clear skies, cannot completely rule out some visibility 
restrictions in br early Friday, but with drier air bring drawn 
west by the low-level flow, it seems unlikely. 


Cms 


Previous discussion... /issued 348 am CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/ 


Discussion... 
the deep cyclone centered over eastern Kansas this morning will 
continue to move away today. A few lingering patches of light rain 
will still be possible in the Ponca City area this morning. The 
rest of the day will be seasonable with decreasing winds. 


Friday will be warmer, with winds turning to southeast and 
increasing again, in advance of the next storm system. That system 
will begin to increase our rain chances (first in northwest 
oklahoma) Friday night. For Saturday and Sunday, there are still 
quite a few questions regarding rain chances. Models depict a 
narrow band of instability roughly parallel to, but west of, I-35 
during the morning and afternoon Saturday. Rain chances will be 
generally higher during the afternoon on Saturday, and will 
continue through Monday, mainly over the eastern half of 
Oklahoma. Modest instability and nearly unidirectional vertical 
wind shear suggest that the risk for severe storms will be 
relatively low (marginal risk, according to spc), and suggest more 
of a wind threat than the other severe weather features. 
Significant rainfall will also be possible, although probably not 
of the same magnitude as the storms last Tuesday. 


After that storm moves away, yet another will move into the 
Central Plains. The medium-range models suggest a very tightly- 
wound system over Kansas about Tuesday/Wednesday. Conditions 
appear to support snowfall as close as the western Oklahoma 
Panhandle, but any precipitation in our forecast area is still 
most likely to be rain. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 64 43 74 54 / 0 0 0 10 
Hobart OK 70 44 75 53 / 0 0 0 10 
Wichita Falls Texas 75 47 85 56 / 0 0 0 10 
gage OK 66 40 67 46 / 0 0 0 30 
Ponca City OK 56 37 67 49 / 30 0 0 20 
Durant OK 70 47 81 55 / 0 0 0 10 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 



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