Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
625 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015 


Discussion... 
the 00z aviation discussion follows.... 


&& 


Aviation... 
at 23z...a cold front and associated thunderstorms and rain extended from between 
kpnc and kict to kwwr. This line of thunderstorms and rain will advance southeast this 
evening...bringing 2-4 hours of thunderstorms and rain to most taf sites by 10z 
tonight. After the initial thunderstorms and rain...widespread rain showers will fill in 
near/north of the front. The front is expected to stall roughly from 
klts-kchk-koun-ksnl. The rain tomorrow will affect most of OK and 
North Texas. A few thunderstorms and rain will also occur...but are expected to be too 
few/far between to warrant mention in the tafs. By 
afternoon...+shra will likely cover much of the area from ksps to 
kokc...bringing ceilings down to roughly 500-800 feet. Outside this 
area...shra/tsra should be less intense...and perhaps less 
extensive. 


Cms 
&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 334 PM CDT Monday Jul 6 2015/ 


Discussion... 
a cold front will move southeast into central Oklahoma 
tonight...then stall somewhere across Oklahoma and perhaps western 
North Texas. Showers and storms will occur along the front this 
evening...probably producing outflow that will move out ahead of 
the convection. A very moist atmosphere will favor heavy 
rainfall...and possibly flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is 
already in effect...and no changes will be made to it this 
afternoon. 


An upper-level wave will move east across the region 
tomorrow...which will support widespread rain and a few 
thunderstorms as the front remains across the southern part of our 
forecast area...and warm moist air is forced north over the 
cooler air near the surface. 


Rain chances will generally diminish Wednesday as the weather 
systems weaken over US...and will disappear entirely by the 
weekend with upper-level ridging taking over. As is usual...this 
will bring hot weather back to North Texas and Oklahoma. 
And...with the extremely wet ground...humidities will be rather 
high. On the other hand...this will limit the amount of daytime 
heating that can occur. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 70 78 63 80 / 60 80 80 50 
Hobart OK 68 75 62 84 / 80 90 70 30 
Wichita Falls Texas 75 83 64 85 / 50 80 80 60 
gage OK 61 72 59 81 / 90 70 20 20 
Ponca City OK 64 76 63 78 / 90 70 70 40 
Durant OK 74 87 69 85 / 20 40 50 50 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for okz005>042- 
044>046. 


Texas...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for txz083>090. 


&& 


$$ 


25/23/23 






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