Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
322 am CDT Friday Oct 9 2015 

rain chances today is the main concern...then possible record heat 
and wildfire concerns on Sunday. 

In regards to rain chances today...generally preferred the lower 
side of model guidance chances...generally 20 to 30 
percent...similar to the previous forecast. Simply think the lack 
of signficant low level convergence...weak instability...and weak 
middle/upper forcing away from a middle/upper trough over the Midwest 
and a middle/upper low to our southeast...should keep any shower and 
thunderstorm development isolated to scattered at best. Any 
rainfall will remain light and mainly under 0.25 inch. There will 
be many more dry hours than wet ones in locations that receive 
rainfall...though many locations will not get wet today. 

This morning...a weak cold front will continue to push south and 
through the area...arriving in North Texas in the 6 to 10 am time 
frame. Cannot completely rule out some patchy fog development 
south of the front...mainly east of I-35 and south of I-40...but 
did not mention as cloud cover may hamper fog formation. Latest 
hrrr runs suggested that any shower and storm development will be 
behind the front. No strong or storms are expected. 

This afternoon...drier air moving into the area will allow for 
decreasing clouds and decreasing rain chances. Used a blend of 
guidance highs are about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday...close 
to average for this time of year. 

Tonight...mostly calm weather will prevail. 
Several rural locations will fall into the 40s. 

Saturday...mostly sunny and warmer weather can be expected. 

Sunday will be an unseasonably hot day...possibly near record 
highs. South to southwest winds will be on the increase as well. 

Sunday night into Monday...a dry cold front will move through the 
area...bringing gusty north winds...but not significantly cooler 

Monday night through Thursday...dry weather and above average 
temperatures will likely continue. Temperatures may flirt near 
record levels again by the middle of the week. 



Fire weather... 
fire weather conditions may begin to be elevated over far western 
Oklahoma on Saturday as winds increase...then across the entire 
area on Sunday due to hot...dry...and breezy conditions. A cold 
front will bring a wind shift to the north late Sunday night into 
Monday morning...but dry and breezy conditions will continue. 


record highs may be in jeopardy on Sunday October 11. Here are the 

Oklahoma City...94 set in 1979 
Wichita Falls...97 set in 1979 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 74 52 81 61 / 30 0 0 0 
Hobart OK 75 52 84 61 / 30 0 0 0 
Wichita Falls Texas 79 53 84 62 / 20 10 0 0 
gage OK 73 53 84 59 / 20 0 0 0 
Ponca City OK 74 47 80 57 / 30 0 0 0 
Durant OK 83 53 83 58 / 20 10 0 0 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 



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