Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
857 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014 


Discussion... 
breezy south winds overnight will keep many locations above 
freezing. Breezy conditions will continue through the weekend 
with above average temperatures. No changes to overnight period. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 248 PM CST Thursday Nov 27 2014/ 


Discussion... 
Happy Thanksgiving everyone... this Turkey day has shaped up to be a 
good one... under sunny skies... highs will reach the middle 50s across 
the western half of OK to the upper 50s near 60 across texoma and western North 
Texas. With broad surface high pressure continuing to slide to the west 
across the lower Mississippi Valley this evening... S/SW winds will 
increase slightly overnight across western OK through am Friday. Lows 
overnight will dip into the 30s across the region. 


Overall... made only minor adjustments to the forecast through the 
weekend. A warm up is still expected... as the h500 ridge continues 
to broaden Friday... with ll winds persisting out of the S/SW through sun. 
Highs will slowly climb into the 60s Friday... with Sat the warmest... 
into the 70s across the region. Locations across western North Texas may 
approach the upper 70s. 


With warmer temperatures... breezy S/SW winds... relative humidity values in the 30s and 
20s... and a history of minor grass fires over the past few days... 
fire danger concerns will be elevated this aftn-sun. Please be take 
care if burning and dispose of cigarettes properly. From activity 
noted today... multiple hot spots on infrared... fuels appear to be primed. 


The pattern begins to shift sun... a hefty cold front will surge 
south across the Central Plains into the afternoon. Ahead of the front... 
SW winds will increase... and warm air advection will allow for highs to briefly 
hit the 70s across texoma to 60s across central OK... with highs in 
the upper 50s across northern OK. As the front continues to push south 
overnight... temperatures will dip into the 20s across northern OK to the 40s 
across texoma Monday am. 


Beyond Monday... long range guidance continues to go out of phase 
quickly... with Stark contrasts... primarily starting Wednesday... between 
the GFS and European model (ecmwf). Adding to the issue... run to run consistency 
from each has been hit or miss. The main issue appears to be each 
solutions handling of the h500 Pacific shortwave. The European model (ecmwf) continues to 
cut it off over the Pacific... halting its progress... developing a 
brief Rex block from southern Alaska south on Tuesday... with some support 
from the Canadian for this solution. In response... this slows the 
eastward progression of the trough compared to the GFS... which 
folds it into the greater synoptic flow... pulling it across the 
pacnw through Wednesday evening/Thursday am. Even with such variability... feel 
relatively confident in keeping the forecast dry through Thursday... 
as the GFS returns negligible moisture and the European model (ecmwf) introduces a 
shallow ridge over the region. 


Jtk 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 38 63 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 
Hobart OK 37 64 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 
Wichita Falls Texas 39 68 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 
gage OK 35 71 37 76 / 0 0 0 0 
Ponca City OK 37 62 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 
Durant OK 37 64 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 






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