Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
620 PM CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014 


Aviation... 
gusty northwest winds expected to decrease quickly at 
onset of forecast with light southeast winds developing overnight. 
South winds will quickly increase Friday morning with sustained 
winds near 20kts and gusts over 30kts through the remainder of the 
forecast period. VFR conditions to continue with only patches of cirrus 
through the forecast period. 


30 


&& 




Previous discussion... /issued 408 PM CDT Thursday Apr 24 2014/ 


Discussion... 
northwesterly winds continue behind a cold front this afternoon. 
Expect them to quickly diminish with decoupling tonight as a surface 
high moves into southeast OK. Expect lows to drop into the 40s and 50s 
tonight with light winds and dewpoints in the low 30s present. 
Winds will then return from the south during the day Friday as a 
Lee trough develops. 


The main concern this forecast period will be the potential for a 
signficant severe weather event Saturday through early Sunday. By 
Saturday morning...a deep upper trough will traverse socal and 
western Arizona becoming negatively tilted. Ahead of this 
feature...low level moisture will continue to increase across the 
forecast area. A dryline will develop near the western OK border 
by Saturday aft/eve. Do not expect widespread moist convection 
before 00z sun with very little forcing and a high cin environment 
likely in place. However...models hint at an initial subtle 
shortwave trough moving over western North Texas near or just 
after 00z where cirrus will be possible. If storms do initiate 
here...and move NE...during the early evening hours they may 
become the most dangerous as low level shear quickly increases 
shortly after 00z with the onset of a substantial low level jet. Think 
00-06z may be the most favorable time for tornadoes south of i40 
and west of i35. Then...additional development appears very 
possible over the rest of OK during the overnight hours Saturday 
with rapid height falls and surging dryline impacting the area. 
These storms will have the potential to produce large hail and 
damaging winds as the move across the state from west to east 
through at least sunrise Sunday. 


Timing is of course a big concern regarding the forecast...but 
there is fairly good agreement that this will be a nocturnal 
event. Most of the severe weather will end by late Sunday morning 
and early Sunday afternoon as the dryline moves into eastern OK. 
However...cannot rule out some redevelopment over the extreme 
eastern zones Sunday aft/eve. A cold front will drop temperatures all the 
way into the 60s and 70s by Tuesday. These below average temperatures will 
continue through at least Wednesday if not Thursday as a broad deep closed 
low develops over the Midwest. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 49 84 60 87 / 0 0 10 10 
Hobart OK 49 86 61 89 / 0 10 0 20 
Wichita Falls Texas 52 86 61 88 / 0 0 0 40 
gage OK 47 86 61 90 / 0 10 0 20 
Ponca City OK 46 84 60 89 / 0 0 10 10 
Durant OK 51 83 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


25/03 



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