Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
634 PM CDT Tuesday may 3 2016 


Aviation... 
tafs 0400/0424... 
widely scattered showers will decrease or move south of Oklahoma 
early this evening. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail 
through late Wednesday. A light southwest and west wind will 
become northwest after 15z Wednesday and will become gusty by 
afternoon. 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 339 PM CDT Tuesday may 3 2016/ 


Discussion... 
a few showers and thunderstorms continue over western Oklahoma and 
especially western North Texas this afternoon. They are the 
result of relatively weak elevated instability combined with an 
upper-level shortwave trough...and just enough moisture to 
generate the rain. These showers and storms should continue to 
shift south with the upper-level system...and generally decrease 
this evening with waning instability. All the rain should have 
ended by midnight within our forecast area. 


The rest of the week should be dry...with a very slow warming 
trend. Then...the next weather system will approach from the west. 
Its slow speed makes it difficult to predict its arrival 
time...but sometime Saturday afternoon or evening is a good 
estimate of when the first showers/storms should arrive in our 
western counties. 


As the upper low crawls east this weekend and early next 
week...there may be a few periods where severe storms will occur. 
The Storm Prediction Center day 4 to 8 convective outlook provides a good explanation 
of the severe weather threat this weekend and early next week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 49 77 49 78 / 20 0 0 0 
Hobart OK 47 79 49 80 / 20 0 0 0 
Wichita Falls Texas 50 80 51 81 / 40 0 0 0 
gage OK 44 79 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 
Ponca City OK 48 76 45 78 / 10 0 0 0 
Durant OK 51 78 50 77 / 40 0 0 0 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 






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