Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
1135 am CST sun Feb 1 2015 


Discussion... 
aviation discussion for the 18z tafs is below. 


&& 


Aviation... 
the main concern is strong winds through 00z. 


Strong and gusty north to northwest surface winds will continue through 
at least 23z. These winds will diminish 23-12z...but not sure how quickly 
they will decrease. Surface winds will switch to the south at all sites 
12-18z. 


MVFR ceilings will be in patches...except near kpnc. Have high confidence 
that all sites will become VFR by 00z. 


Mbs 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 351 am CST sun Feb 1 2015/ 


Discussion... 
scattered light showers and areas of drizzle remain over northern 
and eastern half of Oklahoma early this morning. Will include 
mention of showers and drizzle/fog through middle-morning before 
drier air spreads over the region behind strong front. Will keep 
mention of rain over mainly north-central Oklahoma closer in 
proximity to Post frontal wrap-around precipitation. Chances are not 
zero for a brief change-over to snow up around Medford-Ponca City 
areas but we are leaving forecast all rain. 


Strong winds will occur behind the front...and with mixing and 
strong cold advection...should see at least marginal Wind Advisory 
level winds mainly over northern and central parts of Oklahoma. 
Cold night tonight with temperatures in the teens and 20s with wind 
chills in the single digits many locations late tonight and early 
Monday morning. 


Next challenge will be middle-week precipitation and type. GFS and 
Gem continue to show higher amplitude shortwave and greater coverage of 
precipitation...although light. Fairly consistent solutions from 
run to run will allow for US to keep probability of precipitation going and even allow the 
increase initialized from consensus blends. Type of precipitation appears 
problematic with a rapid change from rain to freezing rain late 
Wednesday before change to snow on Thursday suggested by forecast 
soundings. Greatest impacts currently appear to be north of I-40. 
Although amounts will be relatively light if this system comes 
together like majority of models suggest...timing and chance for 
light ice accumulations will warrant close monitoring of model 
trends. 


Still looks like substantial warmup into next weekend. 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for okz005>008-010>013- 
015>020-022>030-035-038. 


Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


06/17/17 






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