Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
651 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015 


Aviation... 
a weak front will move through Oklahoma this evening followed by a 
stronger front overnight. Thunderstorms approaching from the west are 
expected to move across southern okalhoma and areas to the south 
after midnight. A period of MVFR ceilings is expected behind the 
second front early Saturday. By Saturday afternoon low clouds and 
rain are expected to have moved south and east of central and 
western Oklahoma. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 302 PM CDT Friday may 29 2015/ 


Discussion... 
the main concerns again this forecast are chances for strong to 
severe storms and heavy rainfall/flooding. 


If we can make it through today and tonight...we'll be in for a 
long overdue break from the active weather of late. In the works 
for today...two upper level storm systems and a potent cold 
front...along with abundant moisture and subtle boundaries/waves. 
In short...another messy and unclear forecast in which there isn't 
much confidence. 


Recent short term and hi-res models are trending a bit faster 
with the cold front...and depict little to no shower or storm 
activity along/behind the front as it moves across northern and 
central Oklahoma. Given the degree of moisture...expect this may 
be a bit optimistic and will maintain chance probability of precipitation across 
northern/central Oklahoma. Further south...along the Red River and 
down into North Texas...the forecast through tonight is more 
complex. Thunderstorms are in the process of developing across 
eastern New Mexico and far West Texas. These are expected to 
eventually merge into a eastward propagating complex this evening 
and overnight...eventually reaching western North Texas and far 
southwestern Oklahoma by this evening. This complex may pose a 
risk of damaging winds and marginally severe hail...but the issue 
of greater concern will be additional heavy rain and flash 
flooding. This will especially be the case as the complex 
interacts with the aforementioned cold front...acting to enhance 
heavy rainfall potential along and just north of the front. This 
looks to be most likely along the Red River and into North 
Texas...so the potential for flash flooding will certainly persist 
into tonight. Despite some confidence in lesser storm chances 
across northern Oklahoma...will go ahead and leave the Flash Flood 
Watch as is...given the uncertainties in frontal timing and extent 
of frontal convection. 


By tomorrow...showers and storms will likely be ongoing in the 
morning. But as cooler drier air fills in behind the front...this 
activity should gradually work its way south and east...leaving a 
cloudy but dry conditions in its wake. Opportunities for 
showers/storms appear to be few and far between from Sunday on 
into next week. We will have to keep an eye on a retrograding low 
over the northern Gulf...which might generate some spotty shower 
activity late next week across southern/eastern Oklahoma. 
Otherwise...expect warmer and more humid conditions for much of 
the upcoming week. 


Austin 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 62 73 57 76 / 40 20 0 0 
Hobart OK 61 74 54 78 / 50 10 0 0 
Wichita Falls Texas 65 76 58 79 / 80 40 10 0 
gage OK 56 72 51 78 / 20 10 0 0 
Ponca City OK 59 73 54 76 / 40 10 0 0 
Durant OK 66 75 60 77 / 80 60 10 0 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for okz004>048- 
050>052. 


Texas...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for txz083>090. 


&& 


$$ 


04/09/09 






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