Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
1116 PM CDT sun may 29 2016 


Aviation...30/06z taf issuance... 
a broken line of thunderstorms will continue to slowly build 
eastward along a weak boundary, impacting taf sites across central 
and northern Oklahoma through the early portion of the period. 
Across southwestern Oklahoma and western North Texas, scattered 
rain and thunder will continue across the region as well. So far, 
broken to overcast mid to high ceilings continue to persist across 
much of the region. Periods of MVFR and IFR ceilings could 
develop through the morning hours, most likely across western 
Oklahoma and western North Texas. Thunderstorm chances will exist 
through the period, however, confidence in coverage and timing are 
too low for a mention at this time in any taf, especially now that 
storms have moved east of kokc and koun. 


Kurtz 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 928 PM CDT sun may 29 2016/ 


Discussion... 
a large storm cluster developed this evening across North Texas 
and adjacent parts of southwest Oklahoma. This storm cluster is 
expected to shift mainly toward the south, and perhaps spread 
toward the east, overnight. This should keep the majority of 
severe storms/flooding along our southernmost border area, and 
points south. 


Additional small/isolated showers and thunderstorms have been 
popping up at times this evening across central Oklahoma, a few of 
which may be severe. These storms are expected to continue to pop 
up occasionally, but should decrease gradually with time. 


Have updated the forecast to account for the current conditions 
and latest trends. Further updates are likely overnight. 


Cms 


Previous discussion... /issued 519 PM CDT sun may 29 2016/ 


Aviation...30/00z taf issuance... 
an active aviation period can be expected through tomorrow. 
Thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle will slowly build into 
western and southwestern Oklahoma and western North Texas this 
evening. Additionally, broken to overcast mid to high ceilings 
will continue to build in from the west through the evening and 
overnight. Sites impacted from thunderstorms could easily see 
drops to MVFR or IFR at times this evening and overnight. 


Kurtz 


Previous discussion... /issued 352 PM CDT sun may 29 2016/ 


Discussion... 
complex convective forecast continues with little help from any 
model consistency or model agreement. Main area for convective 
impacts first period will be far western and southwest parts of 
Oklahoma and western North Texas as storms over Texas Panhandle 
tries to build east and southeast near edge of West Texas 
instability axis. Other areas of potential concentration will be 
south-central and southeast Oklahoma where slightly better 
moisture resides near weak outflow boundary. An outflow boundary 
from northern Oklahoma convection will also move slowly south 
toward the I-40 corridor of central Oklahoma and could be a focus 
for at least isolated thunderstorms. Majority of heavy rain will 
likely be west of the body of Oklahoma and western North Texas but 
eventual eastward progression of any mesoscale convective system may affect southwest 
Oklahoma and western North Texas tonight. At this point we are 
not issuing a Flood Watch but slow moving storms tonight will 
yield the threat for heavy rain. 


Wet weather will continue through at least Wednesday before drier 
and cooler air filters in behind seasonably strong cold front. 
Convection Tuesday and Wednesday associated with this front will 
likely yield the greater threat for widespread heavy rain and need 
for flood watches. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 65 81 64 81 / 20 40 30 60 
Hobart OK 63 83 65 82 / 60 40 40 60 
Wichita Falls Texas 66 84 66 83 / 60 40 40 50 
gage OK 61 83 62 80 / 40 30 40 70 
Ponca City OK 65 81 64 81 / 30 40 30 60 
Durant OK 67 84 67 83 / 40 40 20 30 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


23/04/04 



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