Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
1046 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014 


Discussion... 
aviation discussion for the 06z tafs is below. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions are expected with increasing high clouds. 
Winds will increase around 14z with gusts 20-30 knots northwest 
of klaw-kokc. These winds will weaken a bit after 01z. 


Mbs 


&& 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 935 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014/ 


Update... 
clouds coming in thicker than previously forecasted. This could 
keep overnight lows warmer than currently forecasted. However if 
clouds thin and/or clear temperatures could still drop so will keep 
current forecasted lows for now. Otherwise... rest of forecast 
looks pretty good just some minor tweaks to hourly grids to show 
current trends. Updates out soon. 


Maxwell 


Previous discussion... /issued 623 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014/ 


Discussion... 
aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below. 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions are expected with increasing high clouds. 
Winds will increase after 14z with gusts 20-30 knots northwest 
of klaw-kokc. 


Mbs 


Previous discussion... /issued 310 PM CDT Friday Apr 18 2014/ 


Discussion... 
in the wake of yesterdays front...winds have shifted back to the 
south and east...making for a mild and pleasant afternoon. Similar 
conditions will be felt tomorrow as shortwave ridging becomes 
established over the Southern Plains. Low level moisture will 
continue to increase through the first part of the weekend. A 
large upper trough will begin to affect Oklahoma and North Texas 
late Saturday into Sunday. This will bring a decent chance of 
scattered thunderstorms. Most models continue to suggest some 
potential for severe storms on Sunday...when instability and wind 
shear will be most supportive. However...this will not be a 
widespread severe weather event...and hail and wind are the only 
expected hazards. The upper trough will move east late Sunday into 
Monday...bringing an end to showers and storms by Monday 
afternoon. Heading into the first part of next week...warm and dry 
conditions will prevail as upper level ridging moves in place once 
again. Long range guidance continues to show a large upper trough 
over the western states. This along with a deepening Lee trough 
will induce very warm and windy conditions by Wednesday. A Wind 
Advisory may be needed as we near the middle of next week. Fire 
danger will also become heightened both Wednesday and Thursday as 
a dryline/Pacific front move through Oklahoma. While there does 
appear to be some severe threat by late Wednesday into 
Thursday...much uncertainty remains in terms of timing/location 
and sufficient return of low level moisture for more widespread 
severe weather. Will maintain slight chance probability of precipitation Wednesday/Thursday until 
model agreement improves. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 51 77 58 79 / 0 0 20 40 
Hobart OK 52 77 59 79 / 0 0 20 40 
Wichita Falls Texas 52 79 60 81 / 0 0 20 40 
gage OK 53 78 58 80 / 0 10 30 50 
Ponca City OK 50 79 57 78 / 0 0 10 40 
Durant OK 50 76 56 78 / 0 0 10 20 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


25/17/17 






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