Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK 
509 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016 


Discussion... 
please see the 00z aviation discussion below. 


&& 


Aviation... 
rain will continue to make its way out of Texas from the SW this 
evening. There is high confidence in at least MVFR cigs developing 
over most terminals by sunrise...with even lower (ifr) cigs 
expected shortly after that. Lightning strikes appear very 
unlikely right now. Winds will remain east to southeast for most 
of the forecast period. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 411 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016/ 


Discussion... 
primary forecast concern is focused on increasing rain chances 
tonight through Saturday. 


Currently, a dynamic 500 mb trough continues to dig east/southeast 
across the southwestern U.S. From latest WV imagery, the trough 
axis extends from the northern western High Plains of Wyoming/NE/SD to 
the Gulf of California. Ahead of it, increasing moisture return 
from both the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico have combined to 
result in increasing stratus through the day from the Rio Grande 
Valley to Oklahoma. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers 
have been developing off and on across portions of western North 
Texas and southern Oklahoma, primarily in response to a weak 850mb 
boundary and isentropic response around 310 and 315 k. Rap 
soundings through the day have done an excellent job capturing 
this feature. 


With continued warm air advection ahead of the slowly approaching 
500mb trough, profiles will continue to moisten through the low to 
mid levels. In response, showers and rain chances will gradually 
increase in coverage from western North Texas into Oklahoma through 
the overnight hours into early Saturday. Overall, temperature 
profiles in the low levels across the region will remain above 
freezing. As with the previous forecasters (brb/vm/mad, etc.) 
Sticking towards the deterministic models for temperatures 
although the blends have been catching on to the warmer trend. 
Therefore expect precipitation to remain as rain overnight across 
the region. However, across far northwestern Oklahoma, the rap, 
GFS, and European model (ecmwf) continue to show 0-5km show a weak warm nose of 1 
to 3 c wet bulb temperatures, which would result in some partial 
melting, but surface wet bulb temperatures are likely to remain 
just above freezing. Therefore, kept the slight chance of snow, 
but with higher chances for rain. If any snow does develop, it 
would pose no impacts to roads or visibility. 


Widespread scattered rain will continue through Saturday as the 
500mb trough continues to churn over western Mexico. The highest 
rain chances will continue to slide to the east and southeast 
overnight into Sunday. As the 500mb low begins to lift eastward 
across Mexico into Monday morning, towards the lower Rio Grande 
Valley, rain chances will persist across the Red River valley and 
increase across southeastern Oklahoma before ending into early 
Tuesday. 


A colder, more winter-like pattern will emerge by midweek. A broad 
trough will position itself over the central U.S. Still some 
noticable differences between guidance suites of the 
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian with the 500mb trough. The GFS remains about 8 to 
12 hours faster than the European model (ecmwf) overall, with the European model (ecmwf) more 
aggressive with the depth of the trough. This has made for a 
tricky temperature and potential precipitation forecast for 
Wednesday into Thursday. Similar to the night shift and similar to 
the Canadian model, split the difference between the two. 
Currently expecting some frosty temperatures, especially Wednesday 
night into Thursday, where lows will dip into the lower teens 
across northern Oklahoma to the upper teens to lower 20s toward 
the Red River. Additionally, with the frontal passage Wednesday 
afternoon/evening, some light snow may develop, with little to no 
impacts to travel expected at this time as any snow will be 
flurries to very light. The big impact will be strong north winds 
which will result in overnight wind chills in the single digits 
across northern and central Oklahoma Wednesday night. 


Kurtz 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Oklahoma City OK 43 46 38 53 / 80 80 50 10 
Hobart OK 42 45 38 53 / 80 70 50 10 
Wichita Falls Texas 45 47 41 55 / 80 80 50 20 
gage OK 35 42 31 54 / 60 60 30 0 
Ponca City OK 40 47 37 55 / 60 70 50 10 
Durant OK 45 47 42 53 / 80 100 70 20 


&& 


Oun watches/warnings/advisories... 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


26/03/03 



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