000 
fxus61 kpbz 231204 
afdpbz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
804 am EDT Tue Oct 23 2018 


Synopsis... 
a weak cold front is expected to cross the region today, with a 
chance of rain for areas along or north of I-80 through tonight. 
Otherwise, mainly dry and cool weather is expected through 
Friday under high pressure. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
minimal changes were made with the 8am update based on current 
observations and satellite trends. Otherwise, a shortwave 
trough and its associated weak sfc cold front are expected to 
cross the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley region today. 
Scattered showers are expected near and north of I 80 where the best 
upper support and moisture is progged. Elsewhere, a lack of 
moisture along the front should preclude rain. Limited lake and 
terrain enhancement in northwest flow should continue the scattered 
shower potential near/north of I 80 through the afternoon. 


A tightening pressure gradient after fropa, and mixing, should 
result in gusty west-northwest winds up to 30 mph later today. Highs are 
expected to be around 5 degrees below average. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday night/... 
the trough is progged to deepen across ern Canada/NE Continental U.S. 
Tonight. Another weak wave advancing through the main trough, 
along with limited lake/terrain enhancement, could result 
isolated to scattered showers north of pit tonight and early 
Wednesday. Cold air aloft could result in a few snow flake 
mixing in, though a lack of moisture in the dendritic layer 
should limit this potential. 


The trough should shift east Wednesday as surface high pressure 
builds in, ending any precip potential. Dry and cool weather 
should then continue through Thursday night as the high moves E, 
and northwest flow aloft persists. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Monday/... 
a trough is progged to advance out of the Midwest/plains Friday, 
deepening and slowing as it reaches the eastern Continental U.S. Over the 
weekend. Rain chances are expected to increase by late Friday 
with the approach of the trough. Precip chances are then 
expected to continue through Monday as the trough persists 
across the ern conus, and a sfc low tracks north along the East Coast. 
Temperatures are expected to continue to average below seasonal 
levels. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
VFR conditions are expected through the taf period for most 
ports as a cold front crosses. MVFR stratocu cigs are expected 
to develop north of pit this afternoon in cold advection after 
fropa, with VFR stratocu from pit S. A tightening pressure 
gradient and mixing should also result in west-northwest wind gusts to 
25kt. The gusts should diminish by evening as mixing decreases. 


Outlook... 
cig restrictions possible through Wed morning north of pit in cold 
northwest flow. Restriction potential returns Fri night/Sat with low 
pressure. 


&& 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 
WV...none. 



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