000 
fxus61 kpbz 222219 
afdpbz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
619 PM EDT sun Oct 22 2017 


Synopsis... 
a cold front will return rain to the area Monday and Monday 
night. Low pressure will maintain shower chances and cool 
temperatures through mid week. 




&& 


Near term /through Monday/... 
clouds should continue to increase tonight ahead of approaching 
low pressure. The low is progged to track through the Ohio Valley 
to the lower Great Lakes Monday, dragging a cold front through 
the region. Maintained the gradual increase to categorical 
pops from west-east as the front approaches. A tightening pressure 
gradient should also result in gusty southeast wind especially across 
the Laurel Highlands and the higher terrain of WV/Maryland Monday. 
Mentioned gusts up to 40 mph for those areas. 


Temperatures should continue to average 10 to 15 degrees above 
seasonal levels. 


&& 


Short term /Monday night through Wednesday/... 
while low pressure shifts north over Lake Huron Monday night, 
its cold front should race to the east. Heaviest rainfall should 
have moved out of the region by the early morning hours. Overall 
rainfall totals have come in slightly lower on 12z model runs, 
but rain is still expected to be around an inch at most 
locations. Instability along the front is lacking, and have kept 
any mention of thunder out of the forecast. 


Showers Tuesday and Tuesday night will be of a scattered nature 
from an upper low remaining over the northern Great Lakes. The 
low itself begins making eastward progress Wednesday, and have 
added some likely pops along the Interstate 80 corridor 
Wednesday afternoon. Colder air will continue to enter the 
forecast area, with temperatures near normal Tuesday and Tuesday 
night. Wednesday should be the coldest day of the week. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/... 
the chance for showers will come to an end late Wednesday night 
as the upper low moves east. With temperatures continuing to 
cool off, cannot rule out a couple of snowflakes across Garrett 
or Preston counties. Thursday and Friday should remain cool and 
dry. While the European model (ecmwf) and GFS have general agreement of low 
pressure dragging a cold front to the area for the weekend, the 
models have shown little consistency in the speed of the front 
and when any precipitation would arrive. Have stuck close to the 
superblend for this portion of the forecast. 


&& 


Aviation /22z Sunday through Friday/... 
VFR conditions will continue through tonight as high pressure 
departs. Ceilings continue to lower and rain arrives in Ohio 
after 12z, possibly starting at pit/hlg by the end of the taf 
period. Southerly wind will back towards the southeast tonight. 


Outlook... 
restrictions are likely through at least Monday night in 
widespread rain and low ceilings. Periodic restrictions should 
continue through Wed with an upper trough. 


&& 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 



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