fxus61 kpbz 260233 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
1033 PM EDT sun Jun 25 2017 

upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic 
shower chance for the first half of the week. 


Near term /through Monday/... 
the late eve update included some adjustments to pops as a weak 
lead shortwave is spawning some showers in Lee of Lake Erie. 
Slight/isolated numbers should suffice for areas north of I 80 

Another, albeit deeper shortwave is projected across the Great 
Lakes this afternoon. Improved lapse rates and falling convective 
thresholds under cooling mid levels all support escalating 
precip probability with the surface reinforcing front, but with 
inhibitions by moisture paucity. No major changes were needed 
to the ongoing forecast of eventual scattered showers, a slight 
thunderstorm chance with more numerous convection over the I 80 

Cold advection will hold temperatures about 10 degrees under the 


Short term /Monday night through Tuesday/... 
mean troughing will remain across the area through the short 
term period. This combined with the passage of a more vigorous 
mid-level system will allow for rather unsettled conditions with 
scattered showers throughout the period. With reinforced 
cooling, temperatures will remain well below average. 


Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/... 
the pattern rapidly evolves to favor flat ridging moving toward 
the Appalachians by the latter half of the work week. However, 
the lack of deepening of the system that shifts toward the upper 
Mississippi Valley combined with a fairly weak subtropical ridge 
off the southeastern U.S. Coast will mean moisture advection 
should occur fairly readily over the Flat Ridge. As such, while 
a short period mid-week looks dry, humidity and thunderstorm 
chances should return with warmer air later in the week. 


Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/... 
skies should be mostly clear overnight with light westerly 
winds. A cold front approaching the region on Monday should set 
off scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially north of 
Pittsburgh. Prevailing precipitation is expected at fkl/duj, but 
only had enough confidence to mention vicinity showers at bvi. 
At this time, not enough confidence in precipitation occurring 
at the rest of the terminals to mention in the tafs. West winds 
should gust to around 20 kt during the afternoon hours. 

brief restrictions are possible with showers and scattered 
storms Tuesday with the passage of the upper trough axis. 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 

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