000 
fxus61 kpbz 171326 
afdpbz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
826 am EST Wed Jan 17 2018 


Synopsis... 
well below normal temperatures and dry conditions can be expected 
today with warmer temperatures later this week and into the 
weekend as high pressure remains in control. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
recent satellite imagery reveals an expansive cloud deck 
persisting over the area under the upper-level trough swinging 
through. With this in mind, some alterations to current and 
forecast sky conditions were made for this morning through the 
afternoon hours. With the morning sounding showing the dendritic 
growth zone scraping the surface, any cloud would be able to 
produce light flurries through midday. 


Clouds will begin to scatter this afternoon, but any real 
clearing won't occur until warm air advection kicks in later 
this evening. Modest clearing is expected west to east 
overnight, but clouds and potential for light snow will last 
longest over the highest elevations. 


Despite high pressure nosing in at the surface and modest 
warming in the mid-levels, the pressure gradient aloft will 
lend itself to maintaining wind, especially over the ridges 
tonight. This, combined with low temperatures currently 
forecast, could drop wind chills to below -10 degrees. We may 
need a Wind Chill Advisory for at least the higher terrain 
tonight. A mention has been placed in the severe weather potential statement. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday through Friday night/... 
a warming and drying trend will commence on Thursday with temps 
back to normal or slightly higher by Friday. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 
warm advection will strengthen through the weekend ahead of the 
next system approaching from the west with temperatures climbing 
to around 15 degrees above normal on average across the region. 
Increasing cloud coverage on Sunday as moisture advection ramps 
up...with light precipitation possible. 


Latest model consensus progs frontal passage on Monday 
afternoon...with the best chance for rain along and ahead of 
the cold front. Temperatures on Tuesday will lower back to near 
normal behind the front. 


&& 


Aviation /13z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
MVFR stratocu, in cold advection and upper troughing, is 
expected at most ports into the afternoon. Cig should begin to 
improve from west to east as the progresses, back to VFR 
levels. 




Outlook... 
restriction potential returns over the weekend with approaching 
low pressure. 


&& 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 



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