000 
fxus61 kpbz 160201 
afdpbz 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
901 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019 


Synopsis... 
several rounds of wintry precipitation will be possible this 
week with much colder weather anticipated by the beginning of 
next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 9 am Wednesday morning/... 
light precipitation associated with a weak shortwave will 
overspread the region tonight. Saturated low levels below 
freezing, combined with cloud top temperatures nearing ice 
Crystal growth, and weak lift will produce areas of patchy 
freezing drizzle and light snow. Any precipitation that occurs 
will not be widespread and is not expected to accumulate, thus 
an advisory has not been issued at this time. Precipitation 
chances will linger through midday Wednesday once the 
aforementioned shortwave exits the region. High temperatures 
Wednesday will be near average. 


&& 


Short term /9 am Wednesday morning through Friday/... 
after a brief dry period Wednesday night into Thursday morning, 
another low pressure system will move from Missouri through 
eastern Ohio into New York. This will bring another round of 
precipitation to all locations. With the low tracking north of 
the region, this should pull the rain/snow line into south 
central portions of the area. Highest snow totals are expected 
around the I 80 corridor and in the ridges, where 2-4 inches are 
possible. The bulk of the precipitation will have moved east by 
Friday, with some rain/snow persisting east of Pittsburgh on 
Friday. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below normal Wednesday 
night, then warm back towards climatology Thursday into Friday. 


&& 


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
while Friday night should be dry, the next round of wintry 
precipitation moves into the region late Friday night into 
Saturday and Sunday. It appears that this low may track farther 
to the south, allowing less warmer air to get pulled into the 
region and keeping more precipitation as snow. There is still 
much uncertainty to the overall track of the storm and therefore 
the specifics for any snowfall totals. The earliest headlines 
/Winter Storm Watch/ for the area won't be issued until 
Thursday, so there are still several more model runs to get a 
better handle on the track of the storm. 


Precipitation will change to all snow by Sunday morning and 
temperatures should fall all through Sunday into Sunday night, 
allowing temperatures to drop into the single digits everywhere 
both Sunday night and Monday night. This could result in a need 
for wind chill headlines Monday morning. Highs on Monday will 
only rise into the teens, but temperatures will rise back into 
the mid 20s to mid 30s by Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR with areas of LIFR through the 
overnight period ahead of an approaching upper level 
disturbance. Increasing moisture plus very weak lift ahead of 
this feature will allow for very light precipitation to develop. 
The shallow depth of this moisture makes it a tricky forecast 
regarding precip type, with freezing drizzle and snow flurries 
likely falling intermittently. 


As cold air aloft reaches the region Wednesday morning, 
precipitation will transition to light snow showers/flurries. A 
few sites may see fzdz longer, so used prob30 for this 
potential. 


Conditions will be slow to improve through the day Wednesday as 
winds shift out of the northwest with the passage of the sfc cold 
front. 


Outlook... 
restrictions are likely to continue into next week as additional 
weather systems produce a wintry mix of precipitation Thursday 
night/Friday and Saturday/Sunday. 


&& 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 
Maryland...none. 
Ohio...none. 
PA...none. 



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