fxus61 kpbz 251347 

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 
947 am EDT Thu may 25 2017 

slow moving low pressure will keep rain in the forecast through 
early Friday. Rain chances return for part of the weekend with 
another area of low pressure. 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
made some mainly cosmetic changes to the forecast for the 
afternoon. Deep moisture and lift providing showers this morning 
will lift north of the region by early afternoon. Some breaks in 
the cloud cover will help to steepen low-level lapse rates, 
allowing scattered to numerous showers to develop during peak 
heating. There will be enough instability for isolated 
thunderstorms. In line with Storm Prediction Center outlook, any isolated severe 
risk will be mainly limited to areas along the ridges, along 
the edge of more favorable but fading deep level shear. Slightly 
lowered Max temperatures, but not as low as lamp guidance given 
breaks in the clouds could still allow values to pop into at 
least the mid 60s. 


Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/... 
another area of ascent and deep layer moisture is progged to 
track across the region tonight as the low begins to drift east of 
the area, with increasing pops for showers. A few showers could 
continue through Fri morning until the low exits the East Coast and 
shortwave ridging builds in. 

The next approaching shortwave and surface warm front is 
progged for Fri night/Sat as surface low pressure tracks NE from 
the srn plains, resulting in shower chances increasing. Model 
progged instability is sufficient S of I 80 for thunderstorm 
chances also. The low is progged to track across the lower Great 
Lakes Sunday, dragging a cold front across the region. 
Maintained likely pops for showers/tstms with it's approach and 
passage. After below average readings Friday, temperatures 
should return to near or above average levels by the weekend. 


Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday/... 
upper troughing is progged across the NE Continental U.S. Through most of 
the period. Individual shortwaves rotating through the trough 
should maintain periodic shower chances, with the Memorial Day 
Holiday progged to see the least activity at this time. 
Temperatures should average within a few degrees of the seasonal 


Aviation /14z Thursday through Monday/... 
as of 8am, southern edge of precipitation is about to move from 
south to north across zzv/mgw, with much of the widespread rain 
having already moved north and allowing for more of a transition 
to scattered showers during the morning. Atlantic moisture 
fetch should then be briefly cut off as low level flow turns 
SW. This should shunt low level saturation progressively neward, 
allowing for MVFR then VFR conditions to return to most sites 
with scattered showers still about as the upper low settles 
overhead. However, as it moves neward this evening, low level 
moisture will quickly wrap back in and trend cigs decidedly 
downward overnight. Fries/green 

showers continue through much of the period with episodic 


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories... 

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