000 
fxus61 kphi 180155 
afdphi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
955 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 


Synopsis... 
high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic region will dominate 
the weather pattern through the upcoming weekend. The only 
interruption will be a weak frontal boundary approaching from the 
north Wednesday night into early Thursday. As the high moves off the 
coast this weekend, a strong southerly flow will bring much warmer- 
than-normal temperatures to the region through Monday. A series of 
cold fronts will usher in rain...and colder temperatures...during 
the first half of next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
high pressure with clear skies will continue over the area tonight. 
Another cold night is expected, but the coldest temperatures will be 
over The Pine Barrens of New Jersey with slightly warmer readings over the 
wrn areas. Patchy frost through Delmarva and the Lehigh Valley 
and portions of northern and central New Jersey. The frost 
advisory for tonight will be across The Pine Barrens. We have 
also added Ocean County, with the wrn more rural areas expecting 
frost and none near the shore. Lows tonight in the low/mid 30s 
over rural New Jersey and upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through 6 PM Wednesday/... 
high pressure continues across the region. Another sunny day is 
expected area-wide. Temperatures will moderate back to a couple 
degrees above normal levels with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. 
Winds will be light mostly from the SW. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Tuesday/... 
the mid-level pattern associated with the long term period begins 
with a low-amplitude ridge across the eastern section of the country 
Wednesday night. A weak trough moves through early Thursday before 
another mid-level ridge sets up shop over the East Coast by Friday, 
with the amplitude of this ridge increasing through the weekend. A 
deep mid-level trough then approaches from the west late Tuesday, 
signifying major changes next week. 


At the surface, high pressure centered over the central applachians 
Wednesday morning will drift south Wednesday night and Thursday as a 
weak boundary slides in from the north. No precipitation is expected 
with this boundary, so its only noticeable effect may be a 
slight shift in wind direction and a slight drop in relative 
humidity. Then as the surface high begins to push back north, 
the nice weather will continue. With the amplitude of mid-level 
ridging increasing into early next week, and a southerly flow at 
the surface, temperatures will continue to rise too, maxing out 
10 to 15 degrees above normal on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. 
A cold front will begin to cool temperatures down Monday night, 
with a stronger cold front on Tuesday bringing with it the 
coldest temperatures of the autumn season so far by the middle 
of next week. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, 
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


VFR conditions are expected at the terminals through Wednesday. 
Light winds overnight with light southwest winds on Wednesday. 


Outlook... 
Wednesday night through Sunday...VFR. 


&& 


Marine... 
light winds and fair weather through Wednesday. 


Outlook... 
Wednesday night through Sunday...no marine headlines expected. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for njz020>022- 
027. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...miketta 



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