000 
fxus61 kphi 231453 
afdphi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
1053 am EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 


Synopsis... 
a cold front was moving slowly southeastward to the southeast 
of the Delmarva Peninsula today. High pressure is then expected 
to build towards the northeastern U.S. And remain over our region 
into early next week. A low pressure system off the East Coast 
could affect our weather mid week next week. 


&& 


Near term /through tonight/... 
1052 am: just updated to reduce-shrink southeastward the shower 
risk today. 


1015 am: beach patrol conf call...presuming no phone 
calls on increased rc... we will continue low risk today. 


930 am estf: adjusted temps, dews and sky a bit this morning 
otherwise little change to the overall forecast and messaging. 


Today...considerable cloudiness is still expected for extreme 
southern New Jersey and the Delmarva today with a possible shower or 
thunderstorm. Otherwise partly to mostly sunny north. 
Seasonable temps and slowly drying dewpoints. 


Tonight...clearing skies and cold air advection with nearly calm 
wind will promote below normal temperatures across the region. 
The one question will be if we will see any fog development 
overnight. At this point, have not mentioned it in the forecast 
as we should also see considerable dry air advection behind the 
front. 


&& 


Short term /Thursday/... 
Thursday...fair. Scattered light showers still possible late 
in the day in E PA with considerable afternoon cloudiness. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/... 
this forecast was not changed since 330 PM yesterday due to the 
overnight thunderstorms. 


500 mb: a -2sd trough begins the long term period in the Great 
Lakes region, then weakens slightly as it moves into the 
northeast Friday-Monday. Thereafter, we will monitor the 
northeastward progress of what should be a split flow low of 
tropical origins, having moved ashore along the Gulf Coast by 
early next week. 


Temperatures: calendar day averages 2 to 6 degrees below normal 
daily Friday-Tuesday. 


Forecast basis: a 50 50 blend of 12z/22 GFS/NAM MOS was used 
Wednesday night-Thursday night, then the 12z/22 GFS mexmos was 
applied Friday and thereafter the 15z/22 wpc d4-8 gridded 
elements of Max/min T, 12 hr pop 6 hourly dew/wind/sky. 


Friday-Monday...high pressure shifts southeastward into the 
Great Lakes Thursday through Saturday,then eastward into 
southeastern Canada/northeast U.S. Sunday and Monday. This 
expansive high will control our regional weather pattern across 
the mid Atlantic during this time. The trough aloft could result 
in a shower north of I-78 Friday afternoon and there should be 
considerable cloudiness at that time. Otherwise, for now, good 
weather is predicted. 


Tuesday...warm air advection overrunning clouds, if not rain, from a potential 
tropical remnant moving northeastward from the Gulf Coast. 


&& 


Aviation /15z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, 
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


Today... VFR with sct-bkn clouds aoa 5000 ft. Generally a light 
northwest wind with possible gusts 18 kt. 


Tonight...VFR clear. Nearly calm wind. 


Thursday...VFR sct-bkn clouds aoa 5000 ft. Light mostly 
northwest wind may sea breeze along the coast. 




Outlook... 
Thursday night through Sunday...VFR. Generally light winds from 
the north or NW, possibly becoming north-NE on Saturday and Sunday. 
Small chance of a light shower vicinity kabe/kttn/krdg Thursday 
afternoon and Friday afternoon. 


&& 


Marine... 
no headlines through Thursday. Northwest winds today may sea breeze 
later this afternoon. Winds become light north overnight and again 
northwest tomorrow morning before sea breezes are seemingly more 
likely to develop Thursday afternoon. 


Outlook... 
Thursday night through Saturday...winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory 
criteria. 


Sunday...for now, no Small Craft Advisory headline but chance that northeast 
flow will increase and cause hazardous seas to develop along the 
S New Jersey and Delaware coasts Sunday afternoon (5 feet). 




Rip currents... 
low risk today for the formation of dangerous rip currents 
today as earlier elevated seas are slowly diminishing. Conditions 
are expected to improve (i.E. The risk should lower) through 
the afternoon. A northwest wind helps keep this southerly 5 
second swell manageable. 


Outlook for Thursday through Saturday is currently indicating low 
risk. That doesn't mean no risk but sensible decision making 
for swimmers with ultimate safety, swimming within the watchful 
gaze of the life guards. Stay away from jetties/piers. 


Early next week... the risk for the formation of dangerous rip 
currents may increase depending on the the actual development- 
building of 8 second easterly swells 


&& 


Climate... 
kabe monthly rainfall is now 8.34 inches...still ranked #12 for 
the month of August. The record is 13.47 inches in 2011. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...drag/Johnson 
near term...drag 
short term...drag 



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