000 
fxus63 kdvn 212326 
afddvn 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Quad Cities Iowa Illinois 
626 PM CDT Mon may 21 2018 


..aviation update... 


Synopsis... 
issued at 150 PM CDT Mon may 21 2018 


The weak low continues to slowly drift northeast through our County Warning Area 
this afternoon. While the rain amounts have been light since noon, 
when the mid level dry air spread over the region, the low level 
convergence in the northern sections continues to generate drizzle 
and fog. South of the low track, mild air and very limited heating 
has allowed for temperatures to climb to the lower to mid 70s. 


&& 


Short term...(this evening through tuesday) 
issued at 150 PM CDT Mon may 21 2018 


While the low moves away tonight, the weak flow around it and 
saturated low levels will keep conditions damp and mainly cloudy 
tonight. Any clearing, which is possible south tonight, will be 
accompanied by fog. That fog may be dense and could warrant an 
advisory. With the low clouds tonight, temperatures will be slow 
to fall, and dewpoints should be maintained. Thus lows in the mid 
50s north to the lower 60s south. Any showers after 6 PM will be 
isolated and rapidly ending in the far east and northeast. 


Tuesday should see a cloudy morning northeast, possibly dense fog 
in the south, with improving conditions everywhere during the day, 
as high pressure moves through the region. This surface high will 
move quickly east, but the upper level ridge is expected to remain 
west of our County Warning Area. That sets the stage for warm advection 
thunderstorms well northwest of the County Warning Area Tuesday night, which 
could, in a dissipating Mode, slide towards the County Warning Area after 
midnight. While pops are in the chance range late at night 
northwest, it seems any significant thunder will remain well west 
of our area. 


Long term...(tuesday night through monday) 
issued at 150 PM CDT Mon may 21 2018 


Warm and rather humid weather will last through the extended, with 
some threat for thunderstorms at times, with the southern edge of 
the zonal flow aloft nearby, and at times a weakness in the upper 
ridge indicated by models. This mid Summer pattern does not 
support high pops and anyone with outdoor plans this Memorial Day 
weekend should view this as typical Summer weather, not a wash 
out. 


Highs in the lower to mid 80s each day will drop to the lower to 
upper 60s at night. This pattern would support hot and humid 
weather if the moisture transport were stronger, but with the Gulf 
appearing blocked by the flow around the tropical disturbance 
there, we'll just be dealing with midwestern transpiration from 
soil and plants. 


Ervin 


&& 


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening) 
issued at 619 PM CDT Mon may 21 2018 


Main impacts to aviation tonight are LIFR ceilings at kdbq and 
development of fog at the terminals. Light winds, high near 
surface moisture, and clear skies are favorable for fog, possibly 
dense at times. Confidence is too low to include dense fog in the 
tafs at this lead time. For now, went with IFR visibilities. 
Conditions will quickly improve by mid to late Tuesday morning. 
Uttech 


&& 


Dvn watches/warnings/advisories... 
Iowa...none. 
Illinois...none. 
MO...none. 
&& 


$$ 






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