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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
633 am CDT Fri may 25 2018 

/12z tafs/ 

The main concern through Saturday morning will be convective 
potential both late this afternoon and again overnight tonight. 
The potential this afternoon is rather low although a cluster of 
thunderstorms currently in Oklahoma will likely send an outflow 
boundary southward. If this boundary stalls in our area and 
remains in tact, it could focus some isolated convection during 
peak heating. 

Otherwise, the better chance for thunderstorms will be overnight 
when another complex of storms develops across parts of Oklahoma. 
This cluster of storms will have a better chance of making it into 
North Texas around midnight given moderate instability and a 
little stronger shear. We'll have a thunderstorms in the vicinity in from 5-8z to account 
for this activity. Thunderstorms should move through quickly with 
most of the convection diminishing toward the early morning hours. 

At Waco, IFR cigs are just to the south and we'll keep a brief 
tempo in for this over the next few hours. Thunderstorm chances 
are a little lower for Waco overnight as storms should be 
weakening the farther south they go. We'll leave the mention of ts 
out of Waco for now, but this may need to be added later. 

Outside of any convection, VFR conditions will prevail with 
southerly winds around 10 kt. 



Short term... /issued 327 am CDT Fri may 25 2018/ 
/today and tonight/ 

A warm and humid start to the day is expected today with 
temperatures early this morning in the mid 70s and dewpoints in 
the upper 60s. There is a little bit of scattered cloud cover 
across central Texas but southerly flow above the surface is weak 
and most areas will remain cloud free through sunrise. Farther to 
the north, a complex of thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of 
central Kansas with another smaller cluster entering northwest 
Oklahoma. Most of this activity is expected to weaken over the 
next several hours. 

For today, upper ridging will continue to slowly nudge eastward 
into the region keeping things hot and mostly dry. Highs will top 
out in the low to mid 90s with heat index values near 100 degrees. 
We'll be watching the remnants of the convection in Oklahoma later 
this morning. As it dies out, its remnant outflow boundary may 
manage to spread into parts of North Texas. While we won't have 
any other appreciable forcing for ascent, the boundary itself 
could lead to an isolated shower or storm during peak heating this 

Slightly better rain/storm chances arrive later tonight. A weak 
disturbance is expected to spread through the Central Plains late 
this afternoon. Thunderstorms are once again expected to develop 
across parts of southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma. Given the 
north-northwest flow aloft and modest 0-6km shear, these should 
tend to organize into one or more clusters and spread southward 
late this evening. With slightly better 925-850 mb flow and an 
axis of rich Theta-E air in place across western Oklahoma and 
northwest Texas, these storms should be able to persist well into 
the night. Modest instability and steep mid level lapse rates 
would support at least a low end severe threat well into the 
overnight hours. We'll have the highest rain chances after dark 
across our northwest and northern counties down to around I-20. 
Thunderstorms should begin to weaken during the late overnight 
hours as low level flow weakens significantly. 



Long term... /issued 327 am CDT Fri may 25 2018/ 
/Saturday through next week/ 

Any convection associated with tonight's mesoscale convective system will likely have 
either cleared our southern counties or dissipated by Saturday 
morning. While it's unclear if lingering subsidence in the wake of 
this activity will hamper renewed storm development during the 
afternoon, we'll hold onto some low (20%) pops across the eastern 
half of the County Warning Area given lingering instability with shortwave 
ridging still displaced a bit to our west. While the potential for 
re-development does appear low at this time, increased deep layer 
shear (30-40 kts) could support a strong-severe threat within a 
moderately unstable airmass should a storm or two manage to 
initiate along any left-over boundaries. 

Otherwise, the main weather headline during the long term portion 
of the forecast will be the heat, as upper-level high pressure 
begins to build and spread northward into the southern Continental U.S.. 

High temperatures over the Memorial Day weekend are expected to 
top out in the upper 90s to just in excess of 100 degrees across 
some of our western counties. Dewpoint temperatures in the mid and 
upper 60s will make it feel like it's 98-104 or so, and only a 
hint of a southerly breeze will do little to take the edge off 
the humid conditions. While these values are just shy of our heat 
advisory criteria, we continue to stress the importance of 
exercising appropriate heat safety over the long weekend (checking 
the back seat of your car, staying hydrated, taking frequent 
breaks, etc.), Especially since this will be the hottest stretch 
of the year so far. 

By Tuesday and into Wednesday, any tropical impacts look to remain 
displaced well to our east as this potential system will likely 
drift between a weakness between two high pressure centers. As the 
high to our south and west begins to build northward into the end 
of the week, our temperatures seem set to climb inexorably towards 
near-record values. The progged 590+ dm 500 mb heights by 
Thursday-Friday of next week are more typical of late July than 
early June. Unfortunately, it appears the Summer doldrums may be 
here to stay, with extended ensemble guidance indicating even 
hotter conditions next weekend and beyond... 



Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth 95 75 96 74 97 / 10 20 20 5 0 
Waco 93 73 96 73 96 / 10 10 20 5 0 
Paris 91 71 93 71 94 / 10 20 20 5 5 
Denton 94 72 96 73 98 / 10 30 10 0 0 
McKinney 93 72 94 73 96 / 10 20 20 5 5 
Dallas 95 76 96 76 97 / 10 20 20 5 0 
Terrell 93 72 94 72 96 / 10 20 20 5 5 
Corsicana 92 72 92 72 94 / 10 10 20 5 0 
Temple 93 72 95 72 96 / 10 10 20 5 0 
Mineral Wells 96 71 98 71 99 / 10 20 10 0 0 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 

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