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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
552 am CST sun Feb 25 2018 




Aviation... 
other than some patchy fog with marginal visibility restrictions 
early this morning, VFR conditions will prevail at all taf sites 
through this evening. 


Mid and upper level clouds will be on the increase through the 
day as an upper trough approaches from the west. 


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible 
across central Texas today as moisture is lifted over a stalled 
cold front. Waco has the best chance of receiving a few showers 
from mid morning through the afternoon. The air across the 
metroplex should be too dry for any measurable rain to fall, but a 
few sprinkles can't be ruled out. All precipitation will end this 
evening and clouds will decrease once the upper trough exits to 
the east. Clearing skies, a light wind and a damp ground will 
result in some patchy ground fog overnight/Monday morning. 


A light, mainly east/southeast, wind today will become more 
northerly tonight once the upper trough axis passes to the east 
and weak surface high pressure builds in from the north. Wind 
speeds will remain below 10 knots today through Monday morning. 


79 


&& 




Short term... /issued 320 am CST sun Feb 25 2018/ 
/today and tonight/ 
a saturated ground, light winds and a partial clearing of clouds 
will result in some patchy fog development through sunrise today. 
Visibility should remain well above 1 mile in nearly all 
locations, but a few low lying areas could briefly fall below 1 
mile. Any fog that does develop will be shallow and quickly 
erode after sunrise as much drier air mixes down. 


The cold front that moved through the region on Saturday will 
remain stalled just south of the County Warning Area today. Moist ascent over the 
cold front will increase today as a shortwave moves east from The 
Four Corners. As a result, scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms will be possible across the southern zones today. 
The remainder of the region will be mostly sunny with highs in the 
60s. 


The shortwave trough axis will translate to the east tonight, 
bringing an end to the precipitation due to increasing subsidence. 
However, some low level moisture will linger across the eastern 
half of the region and patchy fog may develop again since winds 
will be light and the ground will remain moist. Lows tonight will 
range from the lower 30s in the west where the air will be the 
driest to the upper 40s in the southeast. 


79 


&& 


Long term... /issued 320 am CST sun Feb 25 2018/ 
/Monday through Saturday/ 


Brief ridging aloft and a slow return of low level moisture will 
result in a partly cloudy and mild day Monday with highs in the 
60s to around 70 and lows Monday night in the 40s and lower 50s. 


Low level warm/moist advection and large scale lift will increase 
Tuesday as powerful upper low moves south along the California 
coast and a resultant surface trough deepens across the central 
and southern High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
be possible across the entire region Tuesday/Tuesday night as mid 
level instability and shear both increase. The upper low will 
open up and move east on Wednesday while a Pacific cold front 
moves east across the region. The arrival of these features will 
result in additional showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and 
Wednesday night with the best storm chances across the eastern 
half of the region where moisture will be the most plentiful. 
There will be some potential for severe storms Tuesday/Wednesday 
due to favorable mid level instability and deep layer shear, but 
marginal surface based Cape May be a limiting factor. 


There are still some timing differences among the models but they 
are slightly better agreement that upper trough axis will be 
generally east of the state by sunrise Thursday. Therefore, we 
expect Thursday and Friday to be dry and slightly cooler with 
highs generally in the lower and middle 60s and lows Friday 
morning in the 30s and lower 40s. 


A slight warmup is expected Saturday as low level moisture 
returns. However, the upper pattern looks a bit more zonal as we 
head into the first full week of March so it may not be as 
active across the state as late February has been. 


79 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth 66 44 67 49 66 / 5 5 5 10 60 
Waco 64 41 67 49 67 / 20 5 5 10 60 
Paris 62 41 66 45 62 / 5 5 0 5 60 
Denton 66 39 66 46 64 / 0 5 5 5 60 
McKinney 64 41 65 46 63 / 5 5 5 5 60 
Dallas 65 45 66 49 66 / 5 5 5 10 60 
Terrell 64 44 67 48 66 / 10 5 5 10 60 
Corsicana 64 46 68 50 67 / 30 5 5 10 60 
Temple 64 44 67 50 68 / 30 5 5 10 50 
Mineral Wells 67 38 66 46 65 / 5 5 0 10 50 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 



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