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fxus63 kind 250130 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
930 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 


Update... 
the near term section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 


A frontal system is expected to affect the area into Wednesday 
morning. In the wake of this front, high pressure will move into the 
area for the latter parts of the week. 


&& 


Near term /overnight/... 


Issued at 930 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 


Broad isentropic lift continues across the forecast area as a 
poorly organized warm front lingers in the area. Low ceilings with 
some patchy drizzle remain in place mainly east of a Kokomo to 
Bloomington line. Hrrr continues to suggest shower development 
over southern Illinois and western Kentucky to push into central 
Indiana overnight. Radar mosaics failing to show much of this 
development yet and confidence is waning. Furthermore with low 
clouds in place and minimal instability...thunderstorms appear to 
be a stretch. Given the lift a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled 
out...but widespread storms appear unlikely. Downplayed that in 
the forecast. Used steady state temperatures given the expected 
cloud cover and drizzle/rain chances. 


&& 


Short term /Tuesday through Thursday/... 
issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 


Will keep pops rather high through the midday hours of Tuesday, as 
model data suggest decent lift will continue in association with the 
850mb jet. Precipitation threat may tend to diminish during the 
afternoon hours, as the core of the 850mb jet moves off to the east. 


At this time, it appears cold front will pass through the area late 
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Will keep rather high pops 
going Tuesday night ahead of cold front, with a decent low level jet 
ahead of the front. Will keep some chance pops going through 
Wednesday morning to cover any lingering activity near the exiting 
front. 


Deep layer shear becomes favorable for strong organized convection 
by Tuesday afternoon and night, although lapse rates continue to 
look poor. 


Will go with a dry forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday as 
surface high pressure moves into the area. 


Based on low level thickness progs, the GFS MOS temperature guidance 
over the next couple of days looks reasonable, so only minor 
adjustments planned. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Monday/... 


Issued at 313 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 


Dry weather with near normal temperatures (highs in the low to mid 
70s, lows in the low 50s) to start the long term with high pressure 
over the area. A frontal system will start to move through the Great 
Lakes for the weekend and this will bring small rain chances to 
northern parts of the area starting by Saturday afternoon and 
lasting through the night. At this time models are showing the front 
possibly washing out or lifting north Sunday which is leaving the 
forecast dry for Sunday. Monday chances sneak back in as the front 
could make a bit more progress into the area, but confidence is low 
with low agreement from models and ensembles. Heights building 
Monday could bring temperatures above normal. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for the 250000z tafs/... 


Issued at 736 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 


IFR conditions are expected at the taf sites for much of the next 
12 to 18 hours. 


Poorly defined warm front and associated isentropic lift will be 
in place across Indiana overnight. Radar shows light rain showers 
and drizzle across much of the eastern 2/3rds of the forecast 
area. Hrrr suggests more development of showers overnight. 
Confidence for thunder is low given the moist lapse rates and 
minimal instability. Forecast soundings keep plenty of lower 
level moisture in place overnight thus have continued with IFR 
cigs and visibilities. 


Some improvement might be possible after sunrise on Tuesday. More 
showers and storms will be possible along with IFR conditions on 
Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches from the 
northwest. 




&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 






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