000 
fxus66 klox 181703 
afdlox 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 
903 am PST Fri Jan 18 2019 


Synopsis...18/749 am. 


A ridge of high pressure will build over the region through 
Saturday bringing dry conditions, sunshine, and warmer 
temperatures to the region. Low pressure will skirt the area from 
the north later Sunday into Monday with some clouds and cooler 
temperatures. Prolonged offshore winds should affect the area 
through much of next week with no rain expected. 


&& 


Short term (tdy-sun)...18/859 am. 


Some lingering low level moisture still generating a few clouds 
and some dense fog this morning but that will all be clearing out 
this afternoon as we transition to a Santa Ana tonight and 
Saturday. Main concerns next few days are the winds. Probably 
below advisory levels Saturday with the Santa Ana winds but the 
north/northwest flow that sets up Sunday night into early Monday 
following the passage of the next inside slider looks pretty 
strong and gradients would support at least advisory level winds 
in srn sb County and the i5 corridor. 


***From previous discussion*** 


An upper level ridge will build in from the south and persist 
through Saturday before the ridge breaks down Sunday. A weak to 
locally moderate Santa Ana will develop by Saturday morning. The 
combination of the upper ridge overhead and offshore flow will 
allow for significant warming across the coast and valleys. Highs 
are expected to reach the mid 70s up 8 to 12 degrees from today. 
Highs will be in the lower 60s across the Antelope Valley and 
interior slo valleys. 


Another upper trough will start to move into nrn California 
causing an increase of high clouds by Sunday morning and bringing 
some cooling as offshore flow turns onshore by late Sunday 
morning. High temps will lower a decent amount across the coast 
and valleys while interior areas warm up, due to the onshore flow. 


Long term (mon-thu)...18/308 am. 


The trough coming through late Sunday into Monday will begin to 
dive into Nevada/AZ, as is typical of an inside slider track. 
Northerly winds will increase across the mountains and sba South 
Coast, while clouds develop across the nrn slopes of the 
mountains. Strong northwest winds across the outer waters will cause a 
Catalina eddy to develop in the socal bight Sunday evening which 
should allow low clouds to develop across the l.A. Basin and 
possibly the San Gabriel and San Fernando valleys by early Monday 
morning. Cold air will settle into Nevada and Great Basin by 
Monday night and Tuesday, which will set up a relatively cool 
Santa Ana. An amplified eastern pac ridge will set up off the West 
Coast driving any storm systems well north into the Pacific northwest or 
western Canada leaving Southern California dry through at least 
next week. Prolonged offshore flow should persist through the week 
as models are all in good agreement with similar solutions. 


&& 


Aviation...18/1218z. 


At 11z at klax...there was no marine inversion present, but there 
was a moist layer up to 4000 feet. 


Areas of clouds across the region this morning. Where there were 
cigs, conds were mostly VFR to high MVFR, except IFR to vlifr on 
the central coast, in the Santa Ynez Valley and in the foothills. 
Skies should become partly cloudy to mostly clear this afternoon. 
Mostly VFR conds are expected tonight/Sat morning, except there 
could be some LIFR/vlifr cigs and vsbys on the central coast and 
in the Santa Ynez Valley. 


Klax...low to moderate confidence in the 12z taf. Expect mostly VFR 
conds, but there is a 30-40% chance of MVFR cigs thru 19z today 
and there is a 20% chance of MVFR cigs between 09z and 17z Sat. 


Kbur....low to moderate confidence in the 12z taf. Expect mostly VFR 
conds, but there is a 30-40% chance of MVFR cigs thru 19z today 
and there is a 20% chance of MVFR cigs between 09z and 17z Sat. 


&& 


Marine...18/402 am. 


For the outer waters and northern inner waters, moderate to high 
confidence in the forecast. Very large seas will slowly subside 
thru tonight, but will likely remain above Small Craft Advisory levels thru mid 
morning Sat. There is a 20-30% chance of Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts 
across the southern outer waters (pzz673/pzz676) thru this eve, 
but these should be localized. There is a 20-30% chance of Small Craft Advisory 
level winds Sun afternoon. Small Craft Advisory level winds are likely Sun night 
thru Tue, except Mon thru Tue across the northern inner waters. 


For the inner waters S of pt. Conception, moderate to high 
confidence in the forecast. Very large seas will slowly subside 
thru tonight, but will likely remain at or above Small Craft Advisory levels thru 
late tonight. There is a 20-30% chance of Small Craft Advisory level wind gusts 
across western areas this morning, but these should be localized. 


Across the sba channel, there is a 20% chance of Small Craft Advisory level winds 
across western areas Sun afternoon, then Small Craft Advisory level winds are likely 
much of the time Sun night thru Tue. Across the southern inner 
waters, there is a 40% chance of Small Craft Advisory level winds Sun night thru Tue. 


&& 


Beaches...18/409 am. 


Very high surf will slowly subside later today and tonight. High 
surf warnings remain in effect for damaging surf across west 
facing beaches. Surf will average 18-22 ft with local sets to 25 
ft on central coast beaches this morning. On west facing beaches 
of la/Ventura counties expected surf of 10-15 feet, with local 
sets up to 17 feet near Ventura Harbor. Surf will likely remain 
at warning levels through this evening, then may remain at 
advisory levels thru Sat. 


With this very large surf and moderately high astronomical tides, 
there is a good chance of moderate coastal flooding and beach 
erosion, especially around the high tide this morning. A coastal 
flood advisory is in effect as well. High astronomical tides will 
continue thru the weekend, but surf will begin to subside tonight. 


In addition to coastal flooding and beach erosion issues, there 
is a high potential for large breaking waves across the Morro Bay 
and Ventura Harbor entrances today. 


Hazards associated with the very large and potentially damaging 
surf include strong and dangerous rip currents, minor to moderate 
coastal flooding and significant beach erosion, as well as waves 
washing over rock jetties. Conditions will be potentially 
dangerous for even the most experienced swimmer. 


&& 


Lox watches/warnings/advisories... 
California...high surf warning in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for 
zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See laxcfwlox). 
Coastal flood advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening 
for zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See laxcfwlox). 
High surf advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for 
zone 39. (See laxcfwlox). 
Pz...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 9 am 
PST Saturday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See laxmwwlox). 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 3 am 
PST Saturday for zones 650-655. (See laxmwwlox). 


&& 


Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu). 


Gusty offshore winds are possible Sunday and again Tuesday. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...mw/Kaplan 
aviation...db 
marine...db 



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