000 
fxus66 klox 152100 
afdlox 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018 


Synopsis...15/1147 am. 


Warmer temperatures expected through next week. Night to morning 
low clouds and fog, will decrease and return to the immediate 
coast by Friday. There is a slight chance of afternoon and evening 
thunderstorms across the Antelope Valley and eastern mountains of 
Los Angeles County Thursday. 


&& 


Short term (tdy-sat)...15/154 PM. 


Not too much change the next few days and likely into next week as 
well. High pressure will slowly be expanding west from Arizona/nm and 
this will bring some warmer air with it. However, models are 
showing little change in the onshore gradients so the warmup will 
be mitigated somewhat, especially closer to the coast. Although 
even that has it's own caveat since ocean temps have been running 
several degrees above normal, especially south of pt Conception. 
The upshot is that most areas should see a very modest warm up 
through the weekend, maybe up to a degree or two each day with the 
warmest valley areas getting to near 100 by the weekend. 


We're seeing a little more cumulus development this afternoon 
across the mountains. Models, especially the NAM are showing 
additional moisture coming in Thursday along with a more unstable 
air mass so the slight chance of thunderstorms across the eastern 
la County mountains for tomorrow still looks good. May need to 
give some consideration to adding Ventura County into that as 
well as the Antelope Valley, though the best chances are certainly 
near the Wrightwood area. Convective parameters not as favorable 
for Friday so leaving that day dry seems good for now. 


The marine layer has been running around 1800' the last couple 
days and while this won't change much tonight it should come down 
a little Fri/Sat. 


Long term (sun-wed)...15/159 PM. 


Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show heights/thicknesses peaking sun/Mon 
then lowering very gradually after that. Not seeing any big 
changes in onshore gradients next week so after Monday we will 
probably see a slow cool down but remaining at least 3-6 degrees 
above normal most of next week assuming the warm ocean temps 
remain where they are. Not seeing any return of monsoon moisture 
at this point so the forecast remains dry. 


&& 


Aviation...15/1901z. 


At 1712z at klax...the marine layer depth was around 1500 feet. 
The top of the inversion was around 2500 feet with a temperature 
of about 23 degrees celsius. 


Low to moderate confidence in coastal/kprb tafs and high 
confidence in the inland tafs. IFR/MVFR conditions will return 
after 07z in the coastal sections. There is a twenty percent 
chance of IFR/MVFR conditions at kbur during the 13z-16z period. 
Otherwise and elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail. 


Klax...low to moderate confidence in the 18z taf. IFR/MVFR 
conditions will return 08z-16z. There is a 30 percent chance of 
VFR conditions through the period. No east winds greater than 
eight knots are expected during the forecast period. 


Kbur...high confidence in the 18z taf. There is a twenty percent 
chance of IFR/MVFR conditions 13z-16z. Otherwise VFR conditions 
will prevail. 


&& 


Marine...15/1245 PM. 


For the outer waters... conditions are now below advisory 
criteria through early afternoon. Conditions will again strengthen 
to Small Craft Advisory levels by late afternoon across all of the outer waters 
and will continue through early Thursday morning. Zone 670 will 
see a repeat of Small Craft Advisory conditions late Thu afternoon and Thursday 
night. Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels Friday and Friday 
night. Saturday afternoon and Saturday night are a close call 
right now, but look to stay below Small Craft Advisory levels. Stay tuned. 


For the inner waters north of Point Conception... 
conditions will likely stay below Small Craft Advisory levels through Saturday, but 
this afternoon will get close with a forty percent chance. 


For the inner waters south of Point Conception... conditions are 
expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Saturday. 


Patchy dense fog will form in the overnight and morning hours in 
portions of the coastal waters through the week. 


Increased south swell will arrive by this evening which may result 
in hazards for mariners through the end of the week, especially 
near the surf zone. 


&& 


Beaches...15/1245 PM. 


A south swell will increase by this evening and remain elevated 
through Friday evening. This will bring surf of three to six feet 
on south facing beaches as well as strong rip currents and sneaker 
waves. 


&& 


Lox watches/warnings/advisories... 
California...beach hazards statement in effect from 9 PM PDT this evening 
through Friday evening for zones 40-41-87. (See laxcfwlox). 
Pz...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 am PDT Thursday for 
zones 670-673-676. (See laxmwwlox). 


&& 


Hazard potential outlook (sat-wed). 


No significant hazards expected. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...mw 
aviation...Sweet 



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