000 
fxus62 kmfl 202048 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
348 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 


Discussion... 


This afternoon and tonight: 90-100kt jet crossing the state this 
afternoon continues to produce an extensive area of mid and upper 
level cloudiness that looks to linger through tonight. 


Morning sounding shows atmosphere is well capped at around 4kft, and 
overall not very moist. As the upper level shortwave approaches from 
the west late tonight, slightly better instability may be enough to 
squeeze a few sprinkles/light showers out of the mid level deck. 
This threat is too low however, to mention any precip in the 
forecast. 


Warming trend will continue with mild overnight lows ranging from 
the mid-upper 50s over the interior and Gulf Coast to low-mid 60s 
along the East Coast. Warmer temps and dewpoints will also bring the 
threat for patchy fog, mainly over the interior. 


Sunday: the upper level shortwave moving long the northern Gulf 
Coast will cross the state during the day on Sunday. Models continue 
to trend drier for South Florida, as we will be in between the 
deeper moisture that the shortwave itself brings and the weak 
boundary well to our south. This lack of deep moisture will limit 
the opportunity to take advantage of the shortwave and weak 
isentropic lift associated with it. The result is a mostly dry 
forecast, with the best opportunity for showers over the Atlantic 
and across Miami-Dade. The potential for sprinkles will exist 
across all of South Florida. 


Monday through friday: strong upper level low and surface low make 
their way through the the Great Lakes/upper Midwest on Monday, with 
an accompanying frontal boundary trailing through the deep south. 
Main system remains well north as it moves into the northeastern US, 
with just enough energy further south to allow the frontal boundary 
to somewhat limp into the state on Tuesday. 


The European model (ecmwf) is more robust with precip chances as the boundary moves 
in, with the GFS barely bringing any precip. The GFS also has the 
boundary washing out more quickly by Tuesday night with flow 
becoming east-northeast as the surface high building behind it overtakes it. 
The current forecast follows a consensus of the two, which brings 
the best chance of showers Tuesday/Tuesday night, with a threat 
lingering into Wednesday. 


While the models differ on exactly where the front stalls out, the 
consensus is for deeper low level moisture to linger across or just 
south of the area late week. The increasing pressure gradient will 
bring breezy east-northeast flow, which is a fairly good signal for scattered 
showers moving across the area from the Atlantic. 


&& 


Marine...high pressure will remain to the north of the region 
through Monday. Moderate east-northeast winds will continue into tonight, 
veering more easterly on Sunday and Monday. Gradient will support 
periods of 15-20kts at times, especially on Sunday as an upper level 
system crosses the region. Seas will continue to diminish, but will 
remain choppy over the local Atlantic. Boaters should exercise 
caution into Sunday. 


Flow becomes light and variable on Tuesday as a front moves into the 
peninsula and washes out, with moderate to strong east-northeast 
winds re-establishing behind the boundary mid to late week. The 
approach of the front will also bring a return of shower chances to 
the region for most of the upcoming week. 


&& 


Aviation...high pressure will keep the easterly winds over all 
of the taf sites through Sunday morning. The wind speeds will be 5 
to 10 knots this afternoon decreasing to less than 5 knots 
tonight before increasing again to around 10 knots on Sunday. Dry 
weather will remain over the taf sites along with VFR conditions 
in the ceiling and vis. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 61 75 63 76 / 10 10 10 10 
Fort Lauderdale 64 75 65 76 / 10 10 10 10 
Miami 64 76 65 77 / 10 10 10 10 
Naples 58 77 60 78 / 10 10 0 10 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 



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