000 
fxus62 kmfl 190057 aaa 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
757 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 


Update... 
another quiet weather day comes to a close across South Florida 
with little in the way of convection having occurred this 
afternoon. Only some showers from a convergence band near the 
Atlantic were detected by radar today with no measurable 
precipitation at any of the observing sites. Current forecast 
appears to be on track, so no further updates are anticipated at 
this time. Have a great evening! 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 630 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017/ 


Aviation...convergence band moving into the East Coast is 
producing a few -shra vicinity kfll-kpmp, but impacts look 
negligible. Can't rule out patchy ground fog overnight, but low 
confidence precludes adding it to the forecast at this time. Winds 
become light after 02z, likely west-northwest at East Coast and NE at kapf, 
but will keep vrb for now to account for changes until seabreeze 
slackens. Winds pickup out of the west-northwest after 14z tomorrow with dry 
and VFR conditions continuing. 


Previous discussion... /issued 345 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017/ 


Discussion...drier air will continue to keep the area generally 
rain-free over the next 24 hours or so as a weak frontal boundary 
makes its way south along the peninsula of Florida to close out 
the weekend. The approaching front will increase clouds and rain 
chances late on Sunday heading into Monday. The front is expected 
to stall somewhere around South Florida late Monday into Tuesday, 
where it will be capable of interacting with moisture to produce 
additional rain chances. 


Aloft, a mid-level trough will push across the Gulf of Mexico 
early Tuesday. Shortwave troughs moving across the area will allow 
some showers to develop and the potential for thunderstorms 
returns later in the week. The pattern will hold, with the mid- 
level trough sitting over the lower Mississippi River valley and 
northern Gulf through early Wednesday. Another wave of energy will 
approach from the northwest, with the potential for a cut off 
mid-level low to develop. 


Guidance diverges a bit with this feature as the 12z GFS depicts 
the feature further north than previous days while the 12z European model (ecmwf) 
keeps a more deeply amplified trough in place. The inconsistency 
with the guidance in the last few runs has lowered confidence a 
bit in the extended forecast period, but showers and thunderstorms 
cannot be ruled out as what appears to be an unsettled pattern 
remains over the region until late in the week. The evolution of 
the forecast for late in the week, including the Thanksgiving 
Holiday, should be monitored over the coming days. No big dips in 
temperature are anticipated through the end of the week at this 
point, but the additional moisture and cloud cover could play 
some roles in keep conditions more moist and temperate heading 
into the Holiday. 


Marine...conditions should remain benign through the weekend, but 
an approaching front late Sunday into Monday will create 
additional shower chances and bring increasing wind. As the wind 
builds seas, cautionary and/or advisory conditions will be seen 
across portions of the coastal waters this week. The unsettled 
pattern that appears will develop later this week could allow for 
some improvement in seas, but showers and thunderstorms remain in 
the forecast almost into next weekend. 


Beach forecast...Atlantic rip current threat could diminish over 
the next day or so, though some beaches could continue to see some 
rip current activity along channels developed by this recent 
onshore flow. As such, conditions may vary by beach over the next 
couple of days and swimmers are advised to follow lifeguard 
instructions at all times. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 65 82 65 78 / 0 10 30 30 
Fort Lauderdale 66 82 67 77 / 0 10 40 50 
Miami 67 82 67 78 / 0 10 40 50 
Naples 64 80 63 79 / 0 10 20 10 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 



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