000 
fxus66 kmtr 230531 
afdmtr 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay area 
931 PM PST Tue Jan 22 2019 


Synopsis...building high pressure along the West Coast will result 
in a gradual warming trend through Saturday, along with mainly 
clear skies. The dry weather pattern will likely last through the 
end of the month, with a continuation of seasonably mild days and 
cool nights. 


&& 


Discussion...as of 8:50 PM PST Tuesday...early evening 
temperatures are running close to what they were 24 hours ago, and 
surface dewpoints are lower in most locations. Thus, expect 
another cool night tonight with patchy frost likely in some of the 
colder inland valleys by daybreak Wednesday. 


An upper level ridge is forecast to continue amplifying offshore 
along 130w through the end of the work week, and then shift inland 
over California during the upcoming weekend. This will mean 
continued dry weather across our region, along with mostly clear 
skies and a warming trend. Nights will continue to be chilly due 
to clear skies and light winds, but daytime highs are expected to 
warm anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above normal by the weekend. 
Highs will mostly be in the 60s, with a few lower 70s likely from 
the southern Santa Clara Valley southward by Friday and Saturday. 


Little change is forecast through at least the first half of next 
week, and probably through the end of January. The models agree 
that a dry pattern will persist, although there are indications 
the ridge may retrograde offshore a bit, resulting in slight 
cooling. Farther down the Road, the models are indicating the 
ridge may begin to break down by the end of next week. However, 
exactly how the pattern will evolve is difficult to say as there 
are various scenarios being forecast by different models and by 
various model ensemble members. But there is at least a chance 
that wet weather may return within the first few days of February, 
or as soon as late on January 31st if the 12z European model (ecmwf) verifies. 


&& 


Aviation...as of 9:30 PM PST Tuesday...for 06z tafs. High 
pressure will maintain mainly clear skies across area terminals 
with the exception of a few high clouds. Generally light winds 
will prevail through the forecast period. 


Vicinity of ksfo...VFR conditions will prevail through the period 
with only a few high clouds expected. Light to locally variable winds 
will persist. 


Sfo bridge approach...similar to sfo. 


Monterey Bay terminals...VFR conditions and light winds will 
prevail through the period. 


&& 


Marine...as of 8:41 PM PST Tuesday...high pressure over the 
eastern Pacific will maintain light to moderate northerly winds 
across the coastal waters through much of the week. Locally breezy 
winds possible Wednesday afternoon and evening along the Big Sur 
coast, south of Point Sur. A series of small to moderate northwest 
swells are forecast throughout the week. 


&& 


Mtr watches/warnings/advisories... 
... Pinos to pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 1 PM 


&& 


$$ 


Public forecast: dykema 
aviation/marine: CW 


Visit US at www.Weather.Gov/sanfrancisco 



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