000 
fxus66 ksgx 230456 
afdsgx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Diego California 
856 PM PST Thu Feb 22 2018 


Synopsis... 
small chances of light showers will continue through early Friday 
morning. Brisk winds are also likely in the mountains and 
deserts overnight before subsiding. The weekend looks fair before 
low pressure returns next week for cold weather and showers. 


&& 


Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange... 
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino 
counties... 


A shortwave embedded within the longwave trough over the western 
U.S. Will continue diving south and across Southern California 
through Friday. As it does so, a few showers will continue, mainly 
from the coast to the mountains through Friday morning. Snow 
levels will drop to around 3500 ft overnight. A few hundredths of 
an inch of precip is expected, with a few tenths of accumulating 
snow possible in the mountains. The approaching trough will create 
breezy west to southwest winds across the mountains and deserts 
through 10 am Friday morning. A Wind Advisory remains in effect 
through the period for gusts of 40-50 mph. 


Somewhat warmer weather is expected this weekend, with highs 
closer to seasonal normals under northwest flow aloft. Breezy east 
to northeast winds will develop overnight Friday and Sunday 
nights near the coastal mountain slopes and through mountain 
passes, however a quick burst of westerly winds over the mountains 
and deserts is expected Saturday night as a trough digs across 
the area. Strongest gusts of 45-55 mph are expected with the 
trough passage Saturday evening. 


Another deeper trough is forecast to move across the area late 
Monday through Tuesday. Precip amounts are still uncertain at this 
time as the 12z European model (ecmwf) is around 0.50 inches wetter than the GFS. 
Latest models show a break in the precip Wednesday afternoon 
through Thursday afternoon, then a deeper trough heads our way for 
Friday and Saturday of next week. Atmospheric moisture might be in 
better supply for this system, so the potential for greater 
precipitation accumulations are there. Gusty west to southwest 
winds will also likely develop along the mountains and deserts 
from the trough, with snow levels starting around 5000 ft. 


&& 


Aviation... 
230420z...sct-bkn clouds and isolated -shra through Fri morning. Cloud 
bases will be 2500-4000 ft mean sea level with tops to 8000 ft mean sea level with 
occasional obscurations in the mountains. Showers ending by late Fri 
morning with gradually clearing through the afternoon. 


SW to west surface winds will increase tonight and continue through Fri 
morning with areas of 20-30 kt winds and 35-45 kt gusts along the 
Desert Mountain slopes and east of passes. Uddfs/llws/rotors will 
occur at times over and east of the mountains through Fri morning, 
including vicinity kpsp. Winds will weaken Friday afternoon and evening. 


&& 


Marine... 
west to northwest winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt and combined 
seas up to 8-9 ft with steep waves will develop later this evening 
and continue through Friday evening. This will create hazardous 
boating conditions. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 
8 PM Friday. 


&& 


Skywarn... 
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are 
encouraged to report significant weather conditions. 




&& 


Sgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
California...Wind Advisory until 10 am PST Friday for apple and Lucerne 
valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County mountains-San 
Bernardino County mountains-San Diego County deserts-San 
Diego County mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning. 


Pz...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PST Friday for coastal waters 
from San Mateo Point to the Mexican border and out to 30 nm- 
waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican border extending 
30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island. 


&& 



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