000 
fxus66 ksgx 170938 
afdsgx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Diego California 
238 am PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 


Synopsis... 
monsoonal moisture will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms 
to the mountains this afternoon. Dry with an inland warming trend 
for the weekend through Monday. For Tuesday and Wednesday, some 
monsoonal moisture may return bringing a chance of afternoon and 
early evening thunderstorms for the mountains and deserts. This 
may be followed by some drying and inland warming for inland areas 
for the latter part of next week. For coastal areas, areas of 
night and morning low clouds and fog will extend locally into the 
far western valleys at times. 


&& 


Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange... 
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino 
counties... 


Short term (today through sunday)... 
monsoonal moisture remains across portions of Southern California, 
but will begin to decrease today with a slow decrease continuing 
into Saturday with a greater decrease on Sunday. Isolated 
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon 
over the San Bernardino Mountains and Riverside County mountains, 
possibly extending into the San Diego County mountains with 
development mostly along convergence boundaries in the mountains. 
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to be less than on Thursday and 
thunderstorms are expected to end sooner, mostly by late 
afternoon instead of extending into the evening in some areas. 
Locally heavy rainfall with isolated flash flooding is expected 
with these thunderstorms this afternoon. Afternoon clouds are 
expected to continue near the mountains Saturday and Sunday 
afternoons, but with no thunderstorms. 


As the drying occurs, inland areas will warm for Saturday and 
Sunday with high temperatures near to slightly above average. For 
coastal areas, areas of night and morning low clouds fog will 
extend locally into the far western valleys at times. 


&& 


Long term (monday through thursday)... 
the drier and warmer weather will continue into Monday with some 
monsoonal moisture return for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will 
bring another chance for afternoon and early evening 
thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts with desert areas not 
quite as hot with the increase in lower level moisture. Less 
certain is the degree of drying that may occur later in the week 
with the European model (ecmwf) of tonight slower with the drying with the GFS 
showing a little more drying. 


&& 


Aviation... 
170900z...coasts/valleys...areas of broken/overcast stratus continuing to 
spread 15-20 mi inland through the morning with bases 1300-1800 ft 
mean sea level and tops to 2200 ft mean sea level. Most areas should clear by 18z Fri, 
except for local broken stratus along the immediate coast through the 
afternoon. Stratus will begin to spread back inland after 18/00z 
with similar bases and tops. 


Mountains/deserts...there is a chance of thunderstorms and rain over the mountains and 
High Desert this afternoon with strong up/downdrafts, low level wind shear and local 
surface wind gusts to 35 knots. Cumulonimbus bases will be around 8000 ft mean sea level 
with tops to 45000 ft mean sea level. Otherwise, few-scattered clouds at/above 10000 
ft mean sea level with vis unrestricted outside of thunderstorms and rain. 


&& 


Marine... 
no hazardous marine weather is expected through Tuesday. 


&& 


Beaches... 
beach hazard statement remains in effect through 9 PM for elevated 
surf and strong rip currents. A 4 ft/16-17 second period swell from 
180 degrees will bring surf of 3-6 ft, with isolated sets to 8 ft on 
south facing beaches of norther Orange County, and strong rip 
currents through this evening. Surf will begin to lower Saturday. 


&& 


Skywarn... 
Skywarn activation might be needed this afternoon for the 
mountains. Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant 
weather conditions. 


&& 


Sgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
California...beach hazards statement through this evening for Orange County 
coastal areas-San Diego County coastal areas. 


Pz...none. 


&& 



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