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fxus64 kfwd 262040 
afdfwd 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
340 PM CDT Sat may 26 2018 




Short term... 
/through tonight/ 


Hot and mostly dry conditions prevail across the region this 
afternoon with near-record high temperatures. Daily records at 
dfw and Waco are 99 and 98, respectively, and while dfw may not 
climb that high (currently 97), Waco has tied the record as of 
315 PM and still has a chance to break it. Earlier today, isolated 
thunderstorms developed within a region of ample instability 
aided by weak ascent from a southward-propagating Gravity wave. 
However, over the course of the past couple of hours, mid-level 
subsidence appears to have increased as the upper ridge continues 
to build slowly eastward over the area. While this led to the 
demise of earlier convection, it may not be enough to suppress 
additional development across our southeastern counties this 
afternoon where a highly unstable environment remains in place. 
Areas from roughly Athens to Hearne and points southeastward may 
be far enough removed from the influence of the upper ridge to 
allow for initiation attempts as convective temperatures are 
reached with over 4000 j/kg of cape in place. However, a rather 
unimpressive cumulus field as of 3pm does not Bode well for storm 
development at this point. Some small hail and gusty winds would 
be possible if any storms are able to get going in this area, and 
have maintained some low pops through early evening as any 
activity would dissipate with loss of heating. Overnight, it will 
be dry and warm with low temperatures only falling into the 
low/mid 70s. 


-Stalley 


&& 


Long term... 
/Sunday through Saturday/ 


An upper level ridge just to our west is forecast to build 
northeastward Sunday. There will be low chances of showers and 
thunderstorms southeast of a Temple to Canton line sunday; 
otherwise, expect hot and rain-free weather. High temperatures 
will be in the lower to middle 90s east and upper 90s to 102 
degrees west. Heat index values will reach 98 to 104 degrees. 


The upper level low currently over Nevada is expected to lift 
northeast Sunday and Monday and move into the northern plains on 
Tuesday. This should help squash the northern part of the ridge 
by Monday and heights across north and central Texas should fall a 
little. This may result in highs being a couple of degrees lower 
Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be in the lower 90s east and in the 
mid 90s to near 100 central and west. Lows will be in the upper 
60s to mid 70s. 


Upper ridging will build northeast across the forecast area 
Wednesday through Friday as another upper level trough moves into 
the West Coast. Hot and rain-free weather will prevail through 
this period with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s and highs in the 
mid and upper 90s east to near 105 degrees west. A heat advisory 
may be needed across parts of the forecast area by Wednesday and 
some of the northwestern counties will be at or near excessive 
heat warning criteria Thursday and Friday. 


The aforementioned second upper level trough is expected to lift 
out across the northern plains Saturday which will help re-Orient 
the upper ridge, but it looks like the heat wave will continue 
into next weekend with little or no chances of rain. 




58 


&& 




Aviation... /issued 1240 PM CDT Sat may 26 2018/ 
/18z tafs/ 


Isolated showers and thunderstorm are ongoing just east of the 
dfw metroplex airports this afternoon. This activity is expected 
to continue progressing southward over the next few hours and 
should remain east of all taf sites. While winds are generally 
light and variable right now, their prevailing direction will by 
east/southeast through most of the taf period. Otherwise, VFR 
conditions will prevail into Monday with occasional mid/high 
clouds. 


-Stalley 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth 76 96 73 96 74 / 0 10 5 0 0 
Waco 75 97 72 98 72 / 0 10 5 0 0 
Paris 71 93 70 92 70 / 5 10 0 5 0 
Denton 74 96 72 96 73 / 0 10 5 0 0 
McKinney 73 94 71 94 71 / 0 10 5 0 0 
Dallas 77 96 76 97 76 / 0 10 0 0 0 
Terrell 73 96 71 96 71 / 5 10 5 0 0 
Corsicana 75 95 72 95 72 / 5 20 5 0 0 
Temple 73 96 72 97 72 / 5 10 5 0 0 
Mineral Wells 72 97 71 96 71 / 0 0 5 0 0 


&& 


Forward watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 



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