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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas 
512 am CST Tue Nov 20 2018 




Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail today with northerly winds at less 
than 10 knots. Skies will be clear today, but increasing high 
clouds will occur late tonight. Winds tonight will diminish to 
less than 5 knots with a gradual turn toward the east or southeast 
by Wednesday morning. 


Tr.92 


&& 




Short term... /issued 330 am CST Tue Nov 20 2018/ 
/today and tonight/ 
quiet and pleasant weather will prevail as a surface high 
translates across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. Skies will generally 
remain clear, although some high clouds will arrive from the west 
later tonight. With a full day of sunshine, highs will reach the 
mid 50s to near 60 degrees across the region. The light winds and 
mostly clear skies tonight will allow for another night of 
excellent radiational cooling and lows will bottom out in the low 
30s in the traditionally cooler spots with mid to upper 30s 
elsewhere. 


Tr.92 


&& 


Long term... /issued 330 am CST Tue Nov 20 2018/ 
/Wednesday through Monday/ 


By Wednesday morning we'll be watching a fast moving disturbance 
tracking eastward beneath ridging over the western U.S. This 
shortwave will quickly spread into West Texas during the morning 
hours. Surface high pressure will be centered over Arkansas with 
low level flow remaining generally out of the east across our 
region. This will limit the amount of moisture that can return 
ahead of the shortwave trough and will likely be the main 
inhibitor to a more widespread rainfall event. That being said, 
the shortwave itself will track right over central Texas with 
strong forcing for ascent spreading over the region from midday 
into early afternoon. Scattered showers will likely develop across 
parts of central Texas and move northeast into the evening. We'll 
keep pops between 20-40% mainly south of I-20. 


This system will move by and leave US dry for Thanksgiving with 
the surface high moving to the east and southerly flow returning. 
Temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 60s with some 
passing clouds. A stronger disturbance will swing through the 
plains on Friday, and similar to the previous, will be constrained 
by limited moisture. Models have come into better agreement with 
the track of this disturbance, generally across Oklahoma. Given 
that we will have some moisture return, we'll likely see some 
showers develop mainly east of I-35 on Friday morning before 
quickly ending from west to east during the afternoon. Friday and 
Saturday should be the warmest days of the week with highs 
climbing into the 70s. 


By Sunday, another very strong shortwave will dig into the plains, 
potentially bringing snow to parts of Oklahoma. A very pronounced 
dry slot will likely spread across north and central Texas leaving 
US precipitation free. Nonetheless, a strong cold front will swing 
through the region during this time with temperatures falling back 
into the 50s along with gusty northwest winds. There is still 
quite a bit of uncertainty with regard to the track of the upper 
trough, so we'll continue to monitor this. Otherwise, it looks dry 
and cool to start next week. 


Dunn 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Dallas-ft. Worth 58 37 59 40 62 / 0 0 20 0 0 
Waco 60 33 59 38 63 / 0 0 30 20 5 
Paris 55 35 57 37 60 / 0 0 5 0 0 
Denton 57 33 57 36 62 / 0 0 20 0 0 
McKinney 56 35 57 36 60 / 0 0 20 0 0 
Dallas 58 40 60 41 62 / 0 0 20 0 0 
Terrell 58 36 58 37 62 / 0 0 20 5 0 
Corsicana 58 39 59 41 60 / 0 0 30 20 0 
Temple 60 35 59 40 62 / 0 0 40 20 5 
Mineral Wells 59 32 58 38 62 / 0 0 20 0 0 


&& 






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