000 
fxus63 kind 251032 
afdind 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
632 am EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 


Update... 
the aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 320 am EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 


An upper system will pivot southeast across the Great Lakes today 
and surface high pressure will build in tonight. This will provide 
dry weather through Thursday night. The, another low pressure system 
will bring shower chances to the area on Friday. After that, dry 
weather will take over again with above normal temperatures next 
week as ridging moves overhead. 


&& 


Near term /today/... 
issued at 620 am EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 


Added patchy fog per latest obs and also sent out a Special Weather 
Statement. 


Previous discussion follows... 


Issued at 305 am EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 


Cloud cover and resultant temperatures will be the main focus for 
today. 


GOES 16 water vapor imagery was showing an upper low moving east 
over the western Carolinas, an upper trough pivoting southeast over 
Lake Superior and eastern Wisconsin and another broad trough over 
Nebraska. Meanwhile, a weak cold front was moving into west central 
Indiana at 06z. Radar was clean and GOES 16 night fog product 
indicated stratocu field was over the eastern half of central 
Indiana with some mid and high clouds over northern Illinois. 


Model rh time sections, low level rh progs and cu development progs 
all suggest there will be decent clearing from northwest to 
southeast today. Despite some cold advection, The Breaks in the 
clouds should allow temperatures to top out near normal this 
afternoon with highs in the lower 60s north to the upper 60s 
southwest in the cards. 


&& 


Short term /tonight through Friday night/... 
issued at 305 am EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 


Main focus for the short term will be on timing and coverage of 
showers. 


Models in general agreement that the upper Nebraska trough will 
deepen form a closed low before it moves over the southern states 
late this week. The low should be far enough south of the Ohio 
River, that no pops will be needed in our area until Friday, when an 
upper trough and weak cold front approach. Models were showing a 
ribbon of 60-80 percent 1000-500 millibar rh along and ahead of the 
front. This is enough to keep a small pop in for Friday. Otherwise, 
high confidence dry weather will be in control through early next 
week. 


With some sunshine and return to southerly flow, look for near 
normal temperatures per the blend with highs mostly in the 60s. 


&& 


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/... 


Issued at 244 am EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 


Dry weather is expected through the long term under the influence of 
high pressure at the surface and aloft. Better than average 
confidence in this dry stretch with good ensemble agreement. 
Temperatures will increase a bit each day, starting out near normal 
on Saturday and getting into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday. 
Of note for lows, Saturday night/Sunday morning could see some areas 
with lows still down in the mid 30s, but this is the only night 
that frost may be a concern in the long term. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for 251200z taf issuance/... 


Issued at 628 am EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 


The sites will start out with both visibility and ceiling 
restrictions this morning. Patchy fog will continue to bounce 
between MVFR and IFR (and at times even lower) for the next couple 
of hours. In addition, mainly MVFR ceilings will the rule, with 
some patches of IFR ceilings more likely at kind and kbmg than the 
other sites. All of these restrictions though should show some 
improvement by 14z or so and expect to see VFR over all the sites 
by around 18z or so. Winds will increase to around 8 to 12 kts or 
so and remain out of the northwest throughout the day. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...mk 



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