000 
fxus63 kind 192311 
afdind 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
611 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 


Update... 
the aviation section has been updated below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 340 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 


Southwest flow with high pressure centered over the southeast U.S. 
Will result in a warm-up through Monday. Temperatures will be well 
above normal with highs topping off in the 50s by Sunday and 
Monday. Meanwhile, a cut-off low will continue its track across 
the Central Plains, bringing rain to central Indiana at times 
throughout the short term period. Temperatures will fall a bit 
behind this system in the extended period, but will still remain 
above normal. Dry conditions can be expected for most of the 
extended period. 


&& 


Near term /tonight/... 


Issued at 340 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 


High pressure over the southeast will result in dry conditions and 
mostly clear skies tonight. This is a high confidence forecast 
with no impacts. Overnight lows will be steady around 30 degrees. 
Meanwhile, winds will be southwesterly at 5 to 15 mph, gusting to 
25 mph at times. 


&& 


Short term /tomorrow through Monday/... 


Issued at 340 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 


The main focus of the short term period will be the above normal 
temperatures and rain chances with a low pressure system. 


Warm, moist Gulf air will be pumped into central Indiana over the 
weekend ahead of the next system. So, expect reduced visibilities 
with fog formation and rain throughout the period. The highest 
chances for rain will be from Sunday night through Monday 
afternoon as dynamics strengthen along and ahead of an associated 
cold front. For now though, will continue to leave out mention of 
thunder. This is a moderate to high confidence forecast. The only 
area that confidence is slightly lower in is thunderstorm chances. 


Temperatures will start climbing into the 40s on Saturday and even 
50s by Sunday and Monday with south/southwesterly flow. Overnight 
lows will generally be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. 


&& 


Long term /Monday night through Friday/... 
issued at 248 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 


After an active start to the extended...much of next week should 
see dry and seasonable weather with the harsher winter conditions 
of late taking a breather from the region. Another warming trend 
will arrive towards the end of the period ahead of a strong 
weather system poised to impact the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes 
late next weekend. 


The strong early week system will track through the Great Lakes 
Monday night into Tuesday...bringing the cold front across 
central Indiana likely sometime on Monday evening. While subtle 
timing differences remain amongst model guidance...confidence 
remains relatively high in widespread rain diminishing to 
scattered showers Monday night with a gradual transition to a 
rain/snow mix or all snow showers into Tuesday as the colder air 
advects into the region. Little to no accumulation is expected. 


Once this system lifts out of the region by late Tuesday...high 
pressure will build in and take up residence across the Ohio 
Valley for much of the rest of the work week. Near normal 
temperatures in wake of the frontal passage on Tuesday will 
gradually warm to the upper 40s and lower 50s by Friday as upper 
ridging expands into the area. 


&& 


Aviation /discussion for 200000z taf issuance/... 


Issued at 603 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 


VFR through the overnight. Clouds will increase from the southeast 
on Saturday and result in lowering ceilings, with MVFR to IFR 
becoming common starting around midmorning at kbmg and heading 
north from there. Fog will likely be an issue tomorrow night after 
0z, so at this time it will only be in the extended portion of the 
kind taf. 


Winds will still occasionally gust at 18 to 22 kts for the next 
couple of hours out of the southwest, and low level wind shear 
will ramp up shortly with a low level jet moving in. Wind shear 
should drop off by morning. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...tdud 



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