000 
fxus63 kind 141847 
afdind 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
247 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 


Update... 
the synopsis...near term and short term sections have been updated 
below. 


&& 


Synopsis... 
issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 


A frontal system is expected to move into the area for the latter 
parts of the week. This front is expected to drift off to the south 
by late in the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /tonight/... 
issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 


Model data suggest fringes of organized lift from plains upper low 
will begin moving into the southwest zones around 150800z. Will 
bring in chance pops to these area during the pre dawn hours of 
Wednesday. 


Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows for tonight looks 
reasonable, so little if any adjustments planned. 


&& 


Short term /Wednesday through Friday/... 
issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 


Model data suggest an upper low, currently over the plains, will 
shear out across the local area Wednesday night into Thursday 
morning, however general upper troughing will remain through Friday. 


Unsettled weather is expected during this period under the 
approaching upper low. At the surface, a cold front is expected 
to move into the area on Thursday, eventually stalling out over 
central or southern Indiana by Friday. 


A couple of upper disturbances evident in the model data may serve 
to enhance precipitation potential and rainfall amounts. One wave 
looks to move through Wednesday afternoon, and another Wednesday 
night into Thursday morning, associated with 30 kt low level jet. 
Will time the highest pops with these waves. Heavy amounts of 
rain still look possible, especially from Wednesday afternoon into 
Thursday morning, coinciding with precipitable waters near or in 
excess of 2 inches and the 850mb jet. 


Will keep pops going from later in the day Thursday through Friday 
in association with the cold front. However, convective outflows may 
push the effective boundary and heavier rain threat south of the 
local area by that time. 


Progged low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS highs 
and lows over the next couple of days, so won't stray too far 
from them. 


&& 


Long term (friday night through tuesday)... 
issued at 228 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 


Models are close enough that the model blend initialization 
was accepted for most items. 


A couple of upper troughs and surface fronts will bring rain chances 
to much of the long term period. 


The first trough and front will continue the rain chances from late 
in the work week into the first half of the weekend. 


The models have come into better agreement, and it now appears that 
Sunday will be dry with brief upper ridging between the troughs. 


The next trough will bring more rain on Monday, with lingering 
chances into Tuesday. 


Temperatures will be near to a little below normal through the 
period. 


&& 


Aviation (discussion for the 141800z taf issuance)... 
issued at 1240 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018 


VFR conditions expected through the period. 


Scattered cumulus will continue this afternoon, then diminish after 
sunset. Mid and high clouds will then increase through the night as 
a system approaches. Ceilings will continue to lower Wednesday 
morning, but they should remain VFR. 


Scattered showers will move into the western sites overnight, 
eventually moving into the eastern sites during the daylight hours 
Wednesday morning. Can't rule out a thunderstorm, but coverage will 
be too low to mention in the tafs. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 






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