000 
fxus66 klox 161307 
afdlox 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 
507 am PST Sat Feb 16 2019 


Synopsis...16/428 am. 


A cold showery weather pattern will linger through the weekend as 
a broad trough of low pressure remains over the western states. 
Showers with snow levels down to the foothill and higher valley 
elevations will continue for periods through Monday. A drying 
trend is likely for the middle part of next week, then another 
very cold storm system will dip into the region. 


&& 


Short term (tdy-mon)...16/502 am. 


The latest radar imagery shows shower activity continuing along 
the central coast this morning in a cold northwest flow. A broad 
trough over the west will continue a cold and unsettled weather 
pattern into Monday. Shower activity will remain confined to areas 
north of Point Conception and along the northern slopes of the 
mountains today, then showers will start to expand tonight as the 
next storm system, currently located on the British Columbia 
coast, digs south through Monday. Pops have been increased higher 
along the central coast through Sunday, and increased higher for 
tonight and into Sunday for areas south of Point Conception. A 
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Los Angeles, 
Ventura, and Santa Barbara County mountains through 3 am PST 
Monday. An expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory is being 
considered for the San Luis Obispo County mountains and the Cuyama 
Valley this morning. With the very cold air mass spreading in and 
the very low snow levels being forecast, winter weather headlines 
could be needed for the interior San Luis Obispo County valleys 
and the Antelope Valley as accumulating snows are possible across 
the California Valley and Carrizo Plain, and down into the valley 
floor of the Mojave Desert. Snow levels bottom out between 1500 
and 2500 feet between Sunday and Monday. Snow showers cannot be 
ruled out for the foothill and high valleys portions of the Los 
Angeles and Ventura County. Less confidence in accumulations 
exists for the farther south and west areas. As far as 
precipitation amounts, quantitative precipitation forecast values fall inline with under a 
quarter of an inch for this system. Amounts up to one half are 
possible north of Point Conception and along the northern slopes 
of the mountains. Local amounts up to 0.75 inch cannot be ruled 
out along favored northern slopes. 


A very cold air mass spreading in will bring much colder 
temperatures. High and low temperatures well below seasonal 
normals for this time of year are expected. Most coastal and 
valleys areas will only make into the lower to mid 50s Sunday. 
Temperatures will struggle to make it out of the 40s in the 
interior and High Valley areas on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures, 
especially low temperatures were trended cooler for Monday 
through Wednesday. Single digit to possibly even negative readings 
are possible for low temperatures in the higher mountain areas 
such as Lockwood Valley and Big Pines, with teens and 20s being 
common across the mountains and interior portions of the area. 


For those having travel plans today and through the weekend, plan 
your travel accordingly. Winds and snow across the mountain 
passes could create travel delays into and out Southern California 
throughout the weekend. Stay tuned to the latest Road conditions 
and weather forecasts to make your destination safely. 


Long term (tue-fri)...16/459 am. 


A drying trend develops across the region between Monday night and 
Wednesday as weak high pressure builds in. Continued cool 
conditions are expected, then another very cold trough will push 
south into the region. 500 mb heights dip to around 529 dm as 
trough digs into Southern California. Low snow levels, between 
1500 and 2000 feet are likely again with this system as 700 mb 
temperatures bottom out near -15 degrees celsius. Though not a lot 
of moisture exists with this system, there is still a potential 
for at least low elevation snows, possibly bringing snow to the 
foothills and higher valleys Wednesday night through Thursday 
night. Any precipitation amounts with this system will remain 
under a quarter of an inch. 


&& 


Aviation...16/1225z. 


At 11z at klax...there was no marine inversion present. 


Conds will be mostly VFR across the region through this evening, 
except for areas of IFR to LIFR conds due to cigs and scattered 
showers and snow showers on the northern mountain slopes, and 
scattered low VFR to high MVFR cigs and showers north of Point 
Conception. Expect more widespread low VFR to high MVFR cigs 
across slo County and most of sba County late tonight. 


Areas of gusty northwest to north winds will affect the mountains 
sba County South Coast this morning and again tonight, and the 
mountains of sba, vtu and l.A. Counties through tonight. Gusty 
west to northwest winds will affect the Antelope Valley through 
tonight, and the central coast and coastal sections south of pt 
Conception this afternoon and evening. There will be local low level wind shear 
and moderate uddf thru tonight. 


Klax...moderate to high confidence in the 12z taf. There is a 20% 
chance of MVFR cigs after 09z tonight. There could be ocnl low level wind shear 
and moderate uddf in the vicinity of the Airport thru tonight. 


Kbur...moderate to high confidence in the 12z taf. There is a 20% 
chance of MVFR cigs after 09z tonight. There could be ocnl low level wind shear 
and moderate uddf in the vicinity of the Airport thru tonight. 


&& 


Marine...16/452 am. 


For the southern two outer waters zones (pzz673, pzz676), high 
confidence in the forecast. Small Craft Advisory level winds are expected to 
increase to gale force this afternoon and continue at those levels 
thru late Sun night. Small Craft Advisory conds are expected Mon thru Wed. 


For the northern outer waters zone (pzz670), moderate confidence 
in the forecast. Small Craft Advisory level winds are expected to increase to gale 
force late tonight, then persist thru late Sun night. Small Craft Advisory conds 
are expected Mon/Mon evening, possibly continuing thru Wed. There 
is a 30% chance gale force winds will start this afternoon. 


For the northern inner waters zone (pzz645), moderate confidence 
in the forecast. Small Craft Advisory winds and seas are expected through late Sun 
night, with a 30% chance that Small Craft Advisory conds will persist into Mon 
evening. There is a 20% chance that winds could reach gale force 
this afternoon and evening, and a 30% chance that winds could 
reach gale force Sun afternoon and evening. 


For the sba channel and southern inner waters zone (pzz650, pzz655), 
moderate confidence in the forecast. Small Craft Advisory level winds are expected to 
increase to gale force this afternoon and continue at those levels 
thru late Sun night. Winds will be strongest across western sections. 
Winds may drop below gale force late tonight thru Sun morning, 
especially in eastern sections. There is a 20% chance that winds 
will remain below gale force in most areas. 


A large long period northwest swell will affect the waters this weekend. 
The combination of large swell and large steep wind waves will 
create very hazardous seas across much of the coastal waters 
through the entire weekend. 


&& 


Beaches...16/506 am. 


Large long period northwest swell will bring high surf to the 
central coast, and the west facing beaches of l.A. And Ventura 
County through Sunday evening. 


On central coast beaches, surf of 12 to 18 ft is expected thru 
tonight, with local sets to 20 ft today. Surf will be highest on 
exposed west and northwest facing beaches. Surf will subside 
slowly sun, likely dropping below advisory levels sun evening. 


On the beaches of Ventura and Los Angeles County including 
Catalina Island, surf will build to 6 to 9 feet today, then 
continue at those levels into Sunday. Surf will be highest on 
exposed west facing beaches. Local sets to 12 feet are possible 
near Ventura Harbor later today and tonight. Surf will subside 
slowly late Sunday, likely dropping below advisory levels sun 
evening. 


With increasingly high astronomical tides, there is the potential 
for minor coastal flooding for low-lying coastal areas in the 
advisory area around the early morning high tides both this 
morning and Sunday morning. High tides are between 600 am and 
645 am this morning, and between 700 am and 730 am Sun morning. 


&& 


Lox watches/warnings/advisories... 
California...high surf advisory in effect until 4 PM PST Sunday for zones 
34-35. (See laxcfwlox). 
High surf advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Sunday for zones 
40-41. (See laxcfwlox). 
Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 3 am PST Monday for 
zones 52>54. (See laxwswlox). 
Wind Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for zone 
59. (See laxnpwlox). 
Pz...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 am PST Monday for zone 
645. (See laxmwwlox). 
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon 
for zones 650-655-673-676. (See laxmwwlox). 
Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST 
Sunday for zones 650-655. (See laxmwwlox). 
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 am PST Sunday for zone 
670. (See laxmwwlox). 
Gale Warning in effect from 3 am Sunday to 3 am PST Monday 
for zone 670. (See laxmwwlox). 
Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 am PST 
Monday for zones 673-676. (See laxmwwlox). 


&& 


Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri). 


Low elevation snow is possible late Wednesday and Thursday 
potentially creating impacts on Interstate 5 and other roads 
through the mountains. Near or sub-freezing overnight temperatures 
are possible in many areas. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...Hall 
aviation...db 
marine...db 



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