000 
fxus66 klox 240026 
afdlox 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 
526 PM PDT Tue Oct 23 2018 


Synopsis...23/100 PM. 


Near-normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday. 
Offshore flow and warmer conditions are expected later in the 
week. Night through morning low clouds and fog will return to some 
coastal areas through Wednesday. Mostly clear skies are expected 
through the weekend. 


&& 


Short term (tdy-fri)...23/214 PM. 


Synoptically, there is an upper level trough extending southward 
through the state that will be making way for a weak ridge 
beginning Wednesday, and then a larger eastern Pacific Ridge on 
Thursday. 


Today will be the coolest day of the week as heights dip to their 
minimum with the passage of the upper level trough. A couple of 
high clouds are drifting by, and a patch of some lower level 
stuff has moved over Los Angeles County near lax. Afternoon high 
temperatures will be 2 to 4 degrees lower than yesterday, and near 
the seasonal norms. 


Another weak sundowner is expected tonight and the north to south 
push from both the smx-sba and the bfl-sba gradients will be a 
little stronger, bringing borderline advisory level winds to 
mainly western canyons across the sba South Coast. The slight 
increase in the north/ offshore flow should keep low clouds out 
of all areas except the southernmost portion of the la County 
coast and near Santa Maria. The marine layer was 1500 feet deep 
this morning and should be down to around a thousand on Wednesday. 


A weak upper-level ridge will move over the state on Wednesday. 
The minimal marine layer, offshore flow, sunny skies, and 
increasing heights will kick off a warming trend that will run for 
the next several days. Afternoon high temperatures will rise 2 to 
4 degrees and will end up 3 to 6 degrees above normal. 


More warming expected on Thursday as an eastern Pacific Ridge 
noses into the state. Offshore flow will continue and it will be 
strongest from the north. There will be little to no marine layer 
stratus and temperatures will rise another 1 to 2 degrees. 


The ridge will peak on Friday and it will be the warmest day 
across the coasts and valleys due to the best combination of 
offshore flow and higher heights. Max temps on Friday will be in 
the upper 80s and lower 90s across most of the coastal and valley 
areas and will end up 10 to 15 degrees above normal. These 
readings, while very warm, are not near record values. Should any 
residents of Los Angeles decide to watch an outdoor baseball game 
around 5:09 PM they should be prepared for a first pitch at 
around 80 degrees and dropping into the high 60s by the game's 
end. Winds should be around 5 mph. 


Long term (sat-tue)...23/215 PM. 


Models agree the ridge will begin to weaken some on Saturday and 
then break down Monday into Tuesday. There will be a few degrees 
of cooling across the coasts and valleys on Saturday but the 
inland areas will continue to warm as heights rise. Offshore flow 
will ensure the absence or marine layer clouds. 


Expect a bit of cooling on Sunday and then more cooling on 
Monday/Tuesday as the ridge is knocked down by a Pacific northwest 
upper-level low and winds switch to onshore. Look for 3 to 6 
degrees of cooling on Sunday and an additional 4 to 8 degrees on 
Monday, where Max temps will collapse to near normal, and then 
another few degrees Tuesday at the minimum of the trough. Marine 
layer stratus will make a slow come back, mainly near the 
southern section of the la County coast. 


&& 


Aviation...24/0017z. 


At 2300z, the marine layer at klax was around 1000 feet deep. The 
top of the inversion was near 2200 feet with a temperature of 22 
degrees c. 


Low to moderate confidence in the 00z tafs for coastal sites, 
with moderate to high confidence further inland. The timing of low 
clouds arrival and dissipation is low confidence for all sites 
with low clouds in the taf. In addition, there is a 20% chance 
that low clouds affect ksbp and koxr overnight. The categories 
could dip lower than forecast, especially for ksmx. 


Klax...low to moderate confidence in the 00z taf. There is a 30% 
chance that cigs tonight will not arrive until after 10z, and a 
10% chance that no cigs occur overnight. There is a 20 percent 
chance of east winds to 7 kt from 06z to 16z. 


Kbur...moderate to high confidence in the 00z taf. There is a 
10-20% chance of IFR cigs forming overnight. 


&& 


Marine...23/145 PM. 


For the outer waters, high confidence in current forecast. Small 
Craft Advisory (sca) level northwest winds are likely thru Thu 
night, although they may decrease below Small Craft Advisory levels at times. There 
is a 40% chance of Small Craft Advisory conds Fri, then Small Craft Advisory are not expected Sat. 


For the inner waters north of pt sal, moderate to high confidence 
in current forecast. Small Craft Advisory level winds are expected this afternoon 
and evening. There is a 40-50% chance of Small Craft Advisory level winds Wed 
and Thu afternoon and evening. 


For the inner waters south of pt Conception, high confidence in 
current forecast with Small Craft Advisory conds not expected thru Sat. However, 
there is a 30% chance of Small Craft Advisory level winds across the western half 
of the sba channel late this afternoon and evening. 


&& 


Lox watches/warnings/advisories... 
California...none. 
Pz...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening 
for zone 645. (See laxmwwlox). 
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 am PDT Friday for 
zones 670-673-676. (See laxmwwlox). 


&& 


Hazard potential outlook (fri-tue). 


No significant hazards expected. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...jld 
aviation...Smith 



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