000 
fxus66 klox 171218 
afdlox 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 
518 am PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 


..aviation discussion update... 


Synopsis...16/910 PM. 


A high pressure system will build over the region through the 
weekend and remain in place into next week. A warming trend will 
take place as any marine layer low clouds will mainly be confined 
to the coast. Temperatures will be above normal for this time of 
year. 


&& 


Short term (tdy-sun)...17/307 am. 


Fairly dull and similar days on tap for the next three days. A 
weak upper trof will zip across the northern third of the state 
today and then an upper high will build into srn California from the SW. 


The marine layer 1400 feet deep and weak eddy has brought low 
clouds into la coast and lower vlys. There is less coverage over 
vta and srn sba County but like the last few nights the clouds 
will overrun these areas by dawn. The central coast is much 
clearer than it was last night and the only clouds are in the 
Lompoc vandenberg area. There might be a little more expansion of 
these clouds but not much and it will be a sunnier day there. 


Hgts increase over the weekend and this should reduce the inland 
penetration of the low clouds. There is a good deal of low cloud 
development west of the central coast at the moment and these 
clouds will move in tonight and bring back the typical morning 
cloud pattern. 


Hgts increase through the period as the upper high builds in. Max 
temps will slowly rise across the vlys and inland. The marine 
influence will overwhelm the hgt rises and there will be little 
day to day change in the coastal temps. Sunday looks like it will 
be the warmest of the next 7. 


The convection Thursday afternoon was as forecast with the bulk of 
the tstms to the south and east of la County. Still a few storms 
did form over eastern la County. Convective parameters decrease 
today and forecast soundings show a decent cap forming at mid 
levels as well. So there will likely be some afternoon clouds 
over the mtns there does not look like there will be any showers 
or tstms. 


Long term (mon-thu)...17/312 am. 


Both the ec and GFS agree on the xtnd forecast although the fcst 
solution is a little different than it was last night. The mdls 
now forecast a trof to the north-northwest and an upper high to the east. The 
flow pattern is dry and from the SW so convection does not look 
likely even towards the end of the week. 


Hgts fall a little and onshore flow increases. There will be a 
noticeable drop in temps on Monday and then little change each 
day Tue through Thu. 


The the increased onshore flow will keep the night through morning 
low cloud pattern going across the coasts through the period. Low 
clouds might sneak into the lower vlys at times but for now will 
leave that scenario out of the forecast. 


&& 


Aviation...17/1216z. 


At 1030z at klax... the inversion was around 1600 feet. The top 
of the inversion was around 3500 feet with a temperature of about 
25 degrees celsius. 


Overall... moderate confidence in coastal and kvny/kbur tafs and 
high confidence in the other tafs. IFR/MVFR conditions will affect 
much of the coast through 17z and then return after 03z along the 
Los Angeles County coast and after 07z northward. For kvny and 
kbur the IFR/MVFR conditions will clear about 16z and return after 
08z. Otherwise and elsewhere VFR conditions will prevail. 


Klax... moderate confidence in the current taf. IFR/MVFR conditions 
will prevail through about 1630z then return after 04z. Otherwise 
VFR conditions will prevail. No east winds greater than eight 
knots are expected during the forecast period. 


Kbur... moderate confidence in the current taf. IFR/MVFR conditions 
will clear about 16z and return after 08z. Otherwise VFR conditions 
will prevail. 


&& 


Marine...17/230 am. 


For the outer waters... there is a thirty five percent chance of Small 
Craft Advisory (sca) level winds in the central and southern outer 
waters Saturday evening. Otherwise and elsewhere conditions will remain 
below Small Craft Advisory level through Tuesday. 


For the inner waters... conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory level 
through Tuesday. 


Patchy dense fog will form in the overnight and morning hours in 
portions of the coastal waters through Saturday. 


Increased south swell will result in hazardous conditions for 
mariners through this evening, particularly near the surf zone. 


&& 


Beaches...17/223 am. 


A southerly swell will keep surf heights elevated across the region 
through at least this evening, which will also bring strong rip 
currents and sneaker waves. Surf will be three to six feet on the 
south facing beaches of Ventura and Los Angeles counties and four 
to seven feet along the central coast. 


This swell will diminish slowly through Sunday so the risk of 
moderate to strong rip currents and sneaker waves will also diminish 
slowly through the weekend. Swimmers and anyone in the surf zone 
should remain vigilant through the weekend. 


&& 


Lox watches/warnings/advisories... 
California...beach hazards statement in effect through this evening for 
zones 40-41-87. (See laxcfwlox). 
Pz...none. 


&& 


Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu). 


No significant hazards expected. 


&& 
$$ 


Public...rorke 
aviation...kj 



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