000 
fxus66 klox 242056 
afdlox 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 
156 PM PDT Thu may 24 2018 


Synopsis...24/808 am. 


A trough currently over the Pacific will be moving into central 
California this weekend. Mostly cloudy skies are expected through 
early Saturday in most areas, but partly cloudy over the valleys. 
A chance of showers in the northern parts of the County Warning Area tonight and 
Friday. Night to morning low clouds and drizzle elsewhere. Expect 
cool temperatures through Saturday when the warming rend begins. 


&& 


Short term (tdy-sun)...24/151 PM. 


Deep marine layer to continue through at least Saturday as a low 
pressure system moves through California. Likely very slow 
clearing again Friday and for some areas Saturday before the 
trough slides east and some ridging develops Sunday and into early 
next week. With the deep marine layer we'll also see areas of 
drizzle or even light rain in some places, especially up north 
closer to the upper low and in the foothills of eastern la County. 
Rain amounts will be light but could total a tenth to a quarter 
inch in upslope areas. Highs will remain 4-8 degrees below normal 
as well. 


After the low passes we'll also see some gusty sundowner winds 
developing across srn sb County. Could be some gusty winds 
developing as early as Friday across the far western portion but 
then stronger and more widespread Saturday afternoon and evening 
as better upper support arrives and gradients are stronger. 


With the trough moving east of the area by late Saturday a warming 
trend will begin Sunday with more traditional marine layer 
clearing times. Highs expected to climb 5-10 degrees Sunday with 
more sunshine and weaker onshore flow. 


Long term (mon-thu)...24/155 PM. 


The warming trend will continue through Tuesday with highs 
climbing back to normal and even a few degrees above normal for 
interior areas. By mid week the ridge shifts east and another 
trough arrives on the West Coast so temps will cool and the marine 
layer will deepen. 


&& 


Aviation...24/1759z. 


At 1741z, the marine inversion at klax was around 3900 ft deep. The 
top of the inversion was around 5800 feet with a temperature of 11 
deg c. 


Moderate confidence overall in the 18z tafs. Low clouds with MVFR 
conditions will persist into this afternoon for most coast and Vly 
airfields before improving to VFR mid to late afternoon into the 
early evening. Low clouds with mostly MVFR conditions can be 
expected to redevelop at the coastal and Vly airfields this evening 
to later tonight then persist thru late Fri morning. There is 
uncertainty in the timing of the improvement to VFR this afternoon 
and development of MVFR cigs tonight which could be off +/- two or 
more hours. 


For kwjf and kpmd, there is hi confidence in VFR tafs thru Fri 
morning. Gusty SW winds will affect these airfields this afternoon 
and evening as well, with some gusty winds expected to linger at 
times overnight into Fri morning. 


Klax...moderate confidence overall in the 18z taf. Low clouds with 
MVFR cigs can be expected thru early this afternoon then improve to 
VFR into early this evening. The cigs should then lower to MVFR aft 
about 02z then persist thru Fri morning before improving to VFR aft 
about 18z Fri. There is uncertainty in the timing of the improvement 
to VFR this afternoon and development of MVFR cigs tonight which 
could be off +/- two or more hours. 


Kbur...moderate confidence overall in the 18z taf. Low clouds with 
MVFR conditions can be expected through about 00z with cigs 
improving to VFR thru the evening. Low clouds with MVFR cigs should 
redevelop around 08z then persist thru Fri morning. There is a 30%- 
40% chance the low clouds may not improve to VFR this afternoon and 
early evening. There is also uncertainty in the timing of the 
improvement to VFR late this afternoon and development of MVFR cigs 
tonight which could be off +/- two or more hours. 


&& 


Marine...24/145 PM. 


For the outer waters, generally high confidence in the current 
forecast. Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory 
levels through at least Friday. There is a 60% chance of Small 
Craft Advisory level northwest winds across the southern portion 
of the outer waters from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island 
from Friday night through Sunday night. There is also a 60% chance 
of advisory level gusts for the northern portion of the outer 
waters from Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. 


For the inner waters, generally high confidence in the current 
forecast. For the waters north of Point Sal, winds and seas will 
remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Monday, except for a 40% chance 
of Small Craft Advisory level winds Saturday afternoon and evening. 


For the waters south of Point Conception, winds and seas will 
remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Friday. For Friday night through 
Saturday night, there is a 60 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory level winds 
at times, especially across western portions. 


A long period southerly swell will continue to move through the 
coastal waters through early Friday. Locally rough conditions may 
occur at local Harbor entrances, especially those with southerly 
exposure. 


&& 


Lox watches/warnings/advisories... 
California...beach hazards statement in effect through Friday morning for 
zones 40-41-87. (See laxcfwlox). 
Pz...none. 


&& 


Hazard potential outlook (sun-thu). 


No significant hazards expected. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...mw 
aviation...sirard 



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