000 
fxus62 kmfl 221112 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
612 am EST Tue Jan 22 2019 


Aviation... 
the main concern is high pressure building to the north is 
forecast to increase the pressure gradient across the area. This 
will result in an increase in the wind out of the east today to 
around 15 kts. There is the possibility of some periodic gusts to 
around 25 kts. The wind is forecast to persist through the 
overnight hours tonight, possibly strengthening slightly along 
the Atlantic coast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through 
the period. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 213 am EST Tue Jan 22 2019/ 


Discussion... 
surface high pressure centered south of the Great Lakes will 
continue to move eastward through mid-week as the next low pressure 
system emerges over the central United States by late Tuesday/early 
Wednesday. The flow will eventually shift from a northerly component 
to an easterly one over the next 24 hours. With this flow change, 
the airmass will moderate with a warming trend expected over the 
next few days. There could also be enough moisture, particularly 
over the Atlantic waters, to support some shower activity. 


The next cold front will arrive Thursday with the potential for 
showers and thunderstorms. Timing of the front is still a source of 
uncertainty as the European model (ecmwf) with a bit slower than the GFS with frontal 
passage. There is some consensus between guidance packages with the 
front stalling to the south and east of South Florida for the 
weekend. Surface high pressure will build in with some cooler air 
behind the front. 40s and 50s for overnight lows are expected but 
the forecast evolution will have to be monitored in case colder 
temperatures emerge into the picture. 


Uncertainty with the pattern begins to increase as guidance is 
producing some different possibilities late in the forecast period. 
A mid-level trough will swing across the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday 
which will bring some unsettled weather to the region. Some guidance 
members show the development of a stronger surface feature over 
Florida while some other members keep the feature more aloft in 
character. The forecast trend will need to be monitored as 
climatologically, we are in the midst of the winter severe weather 
season which can quickly come to life with disturbances moving along 
a southern branch of the jetstream. 


Marine... 
developing easterly flow will pick up allowing advisory conditions 
to develop over the Atlantic waters today. Advisory conditions 
over the Atlantic waters will likely persist into Thursday. Small 
Craft Advisory will be extended in time accordingly. 


Beach forecast... 
building easterly flow will allow for a high risk of rip currents 
along the Atlantic beaches to persist through a good portion of 
the week. The rip current statement has been extended through at 
least Wednesday evening and will likely need to be extended 
through Thursday if the current forecast holds. 


Fire weather... 
dispersion index values will be in the good to excellent range 
over the next several days. Currently, relative humidity values 
appear to remain well above critical thresholds through the 
weekend. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 73 64 78 68 / 10 10 20 30 
Fort Lauderdale 73 67 78 71 / 10 10 20 30 
Miami 74 67 78 71 / 10 10 20 30 
Naples 76 62 79 66 / 10 10 10 30 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...high rip current risk through Wednesday evening for flz168-172- 
173. 


Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for amz650-651-670- 
671. 


GM...none. 
&& 








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