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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
258 am EDT Sat Oct 20 2018 


Discussion... 
short term (today through monday) 
a stationary front draped across central Florida will gradually 
erode throughout the day as high pressure barely clings on. With 
that in mind, dry weather is forecast for much of today as the 
aforementioned high still has a slight influence over US along 
with a light easterly wind regime. 


Sunday is when Florida's attempt at fall occurs as a secondary cold 
front sweeps through central Florida and down across South Florida 
by Sunday night. A bit of relief from the humidity will come from 
this -- European model (ecmwf) has dewpoints dipping down into the low-mid 60s where 
GFS has dewpoints in the upper 60s. Guidance has been varying all 
week and even as we close in on the date of fropa, models are still 
varying. Regardless, drier air is on the way! A few showers are 
forecast to develop across the East Coast Metro areas and over the 
Atlantic waters out ahead of the front. Guidance is showing a chance 
for a thunderstorm or two across the Atlantic waters on Sunday night 
as the front actually passes through. Chance of rain and pops looks 
to increase across South Florida as a whole Monday associated with 
frontal passage. 


Long term (monday night through friday) 
the same cold front will stall across extreme South Florida early 
next week (guidance suggests Tuesday/Wednesday time frame) as 
high pressure quickly builds back along the southeast Continental U.S.. an 
increasing pressure gradient Monday into Tuesday will also provoke 
breezy NE flow of 20-25 mph along the East Coast while inland 
sites will see a more moderate NE flow of 10-15 mph. Winds look to 
quiet down mid- week next week. Yesterday a low forming in the 
Gulf of Mexico was mentioned in discussion, and new model runs are 
further supporting development. Because of this, pops and precipitable water 
values over 2.00" are expected to increase beginning around the 
Wednesday time frame. Additionally, later next week, GFS is 
picking up a cold front trying to push its way through the 
sunshine state (along with a shift in winds from the ne) whereas 
European model (ecmwf) is keeping winds from the S and no front. Wpc (weather 
prediction center) is also forecasting a front across Florida. 
Depending on long range models, changes in the latter half of the 
forecast are possible. 


&& 


Marine... 
the winds will remain easterly at 15 kt or less in all of South 
Florida waters this weekend before rapidly increasing to breezy conditions 
late this weekend into early next week. Time frame looks to be 
from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. This will keep the 
seas at 3 feet through this weekend before rapidly increasing to 
8 to 10 feet in the Atlantic waters early next week due to the 
strengthening in winds. With this in mind, a Small Craft Advisory 
will likely be issued early next week. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR and dry conditions throughout the period. Light and variable 
winds this morning. Both sea breezes will develop this afternoon 
along both coast with winds increasing to around 6 to 8 knots. 
Except tmb will stay light and variable as sea breeze will not 
move far enough inland. Winds will return to light and variable 
once again tonight. 


&& 


Beach forecast... 
the threat of rip currents have decreased from high risk to 
moderate risk for this weekend across Atlantic beaches as 
easterly winds diminished below 15 kt. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
an area of high pressure will continue to reign across South Florida 
for the first half of this weekend with dry conditions expected. Expect 
easterly winds of under 7 mph today across the interior region. 
Because of these relatively light winds, dispersion values in the 
low 20s, and even teens, are forecast for Saturday across South 
Florida, leading to poor dispersion. However on Sunday behind a 
passing cold front, values above 75 are expected in the northern 
interior, leading to excellent dispersion as winds pick up. 
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds 
through the period. 


&& 


Climate... 
a record high minimum was set at Palm Beach on Friday, October 
19th. The low temperature of 80 degrees broke 2001's daily record 
warm low temperature of 78 degrees. 


As drier air begins to filter in throughout the latter half of the 
weekend, the chance for breaking records will be rather slim. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 89 73 86 72 / 10 10 20 20 
Fort Lauderdale 88 75 87 76 / 10 10 20 30 
Miami 88 73 88 74 / 10 10 20 30 
Naples 88 72 88 69 / 0 10 20 10 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 




Discussion...03/fell 



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