000 
fxus62 kmfl 172347 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
747 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018 


Aviation... 
a few rain showers vcnty kapf through 01z, then most activity 
should be offshore/over Gulf. For East Coast, more moisture brings 
better Atlantic rain showers coverage overnight. Have included vcsh for all 
sites through at least the late evening hours based on trends. 
Hi-res models suggest another jump in activity just after sunrise 
as east-southeast winds picking back up to 10-13kts. Most rain showers/occasional 
thunderstorms and rain should be west of East Coast sites after 18z. For kapf, 
similar to today best thunderstorms and rain coverage 17z-22z as west-southwest Gulf Breeze 
develops over site. 


&& 


Update... 
updated the current forecast based on current radar trends. Most 
of the shower and thunderstorm activity across the interior and 
West Coast sections will continue to diminish as the evening 
progresses. There still could be some lingering shower and 
thunderstorm activity across the Atlantic waters as well as 
portions of the East Coast Metro areas. High pressure will begin 
to slide to the east on Saturday. This will allow for an increase 
in low level moisture across the region. Chances of showers and 
thunderstorms will also increase on Saturday with the greatest 
chances remaining across the interior and West Coast regions 
during the afternoon hours. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 346 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018/ 


Discussion...scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed 
across the region this afternoon. Most of these showers and 
thunderstorms will diminish as the evening progresses. The 
exception to this will be across the Atlantic waters and the East 
Coast Metro areas where a slight chance of showers and 
thunderstorms will linger through the overnight hours. Low 
temperatures will range from the lower 70s across the northwestern 
interior to around 80 across the East Coast Metro areas. The 
strong ridge of high pressure that has been dominating the weather 
pattern over the past several days will begin to weaken slightly 
and shift to the east during Saturday and Sunday. This will allow 
for some more lower level moisture to move back into the region. 
The southeasterly wind flow will continue and due to the increase 
in moisture, the chances of showers and thunderstorms will be 
higher as well. The convection will form along the east and West 
Coast sea breezes during the late morning hours and it will shift 
towards the interior and West Coast areas during the afternoon and 
evening hours. 


Both of the GFS and the ecwmf continue to show the ridge of high 
pressure remaining in place through the early and middle portion 
of next week. This will allow for an east to southeasterly flow to 
continue which will bring night and early morning showers with a 
slight chance of thunderstorms to the East Coast areas. The 
greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms will then shift to 
the interior and West Coast areas during the afternoon and evening 
hours. High temperatures during this time frame will remain near 
normal as they will range from near 90 across the East Coast Metro 
areas to the lower 90s across the interior and West Coast. 


Marine...east to southeasterly flow near 10 to 15 knots will 
continue across the Atlantic and Gulf coastal waters early this 
weekend. Seas will generally remain at 2 feet or less across the 
local waters through the middle portion of next week. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are possible each day. Winds and waves 
could be higher in and around any shower or thunderstorm. 


Beach forecast...a beach hazards statement is in effect through 
this evening due to the impacts of Florida red tide along the Gulf 
beaches of northern Collier County. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 77 89 77 90 / 20 40 20 50 
Fort Lauderdale 80 89 80 89 / 20 40 20 40 
Miami 78 89 78 90 / 20 40 20 40 
Naples 75 91 76 91 / 20 40 20 40 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...Beach hazards statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for flz069. 


Am...none. 



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