000 
fxus62 kmfl 171837 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
137 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018 


Aviation... 
the winds will remain easterly at 5 to 10 knots over most of the taf 
sites this afternoon before decreasing to light and variable 
conditions tonight. The only exception is that kapf taf site will 
become westerly at 5 to 10 knots between 19z and 00z this afternoon. 
The ceiling and vis will also remain in the VFR conditions at all of 
the taf sites through tonight. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 916 am EST Sat Feb 17 2018/ 


Update... 
high pressure over the western Atlantic waters will allow for an 
light easterly wind flow over South Florida today allowing for 
both the east and West Coast sea breezes to develop and push 
inland. There is also an cap at the 850 mb level that will remain 
in place today keeping the weather dry over South Florida. 
The current forecast looks good and no changes are planned at this 
time. 


Previous discussion... /issued 417 am EST Sat Feb 17 2018/ 


Discussion... 
short term (today-monday)...00z mfl sounding data depicts a very 
dry and capped mid level atmosphere, with a dominant dry airmass 
above 850 mb. This profile is provided by a sprawling mid level 
ridge over the area combined with broad sfc high pressure centered 
just east of South Florida. And although there is some low level 
moisture trapped in the sfc-850mb layer, the strong subsidence 
and overall stable conditions will prevent any significant shower 
activity to develop through the short term. But it may be enough 
for some overnight low stratus/patchy fog to develop each morning, 
especially around sunrise. 


The synoptic scenario will keep above normal temperatures on place 
with most of South Florida reaching the low-mid 80s each 
afternoon. It will also block any potential moisture north of the 
area associated with a weak trough/front system moving across the 
southeast states late Saturday into Sunday. 


A little more moisture could filter into the eastern side of South 
Florida Monday afternoon as the ridge pushes a little further to 
the northeast, bringing a modest increase in easterly winds. Even 
so, chances of showers will remain low. 


Long term (monday night through friday)...the overall synoptic 
pattern remains the same for the long term with dominant deep 
high pressure across the region. Expect morning low temperatures 
to remain in the low to mid 70s and afternoon highs in the low-mid 
80s, along with continuing dry conditions. 


Marine... 
a light to moderate east-southeast winds will continue through 
the rest of the weekend. Seas will remain around 2 feet or less 
through Sunday afternoon. Winds are expected to increase Sunday 
night into Monday and possibly reaching the 15-20 knot range early 
next week, mainly over the Atlantic waters. Seas will increase by 
Monday and remain elevated in the 4 to 6 foot range through much 
of next week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 68 82 70 81 / 10 10 10 20 
Fort Lauderdale 70 81 72 81 / 10 10 10 30 
Miami 70 82 70 82 / 10 10 10 30 
Naples 65 85 66 85 / 0 10 0 10 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 



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