000 
fxus64 kmob 212149 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
349 PM CST Mon Jan 21 2019 


Near term /now through Tuesday/...short-wave upper ridge was 
moving eastward over the MS River Valley. At the surface, analysis 
shows a large surface high from the Great Lakes, southward to the 
northern Gulf. Central pressures within the axis of the high are 
measured near 1036 mb over the Ohio River valley. The high 
migrates east over the Appalachians tonight with light low 
level/surface flow becoming more southeast. There are indications 
that an increase in low level moisture in the 1000 to 925 mb layer 
favors the development of and increased coverage of stratus 
spreading from west to east late in the night and into the day 
Tuesday. Although deep environmental moisture remains low (pwat's 
mostly .75" to 1.00") by the close of the day, the presence of 
weak low level isentropic lift may be enough to generate a small 
chance of light rain showers mostly over the southwest half of the 
local area. Precipitation amounts expected to be less than a tenth 
of an inch Tuesday. 


Overnight lows not as cold. Daytime highs Tuesday moderate. 


Along area beaches, a high risk of dangerous to potentially deadly 
rip currents exists and begins late tonight continuing into Tuesday 
due to increase in onshore winds, surf and Spring tidal cycles. 
/10 


Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/...the upper 
level trough extending from south central Canada to northwest 
Mexico Tuesday evening will continue to dig east- southeast 
through midweek. Additional shortwave energy will exit the Pacific 
northwest and move southeast over The Rockies and Great Plains 
Wednesday and Wednesday night. These features will carve out a 
large trough over the entire conus by late Wednesday night. Large, 
strong surface high pressure across the eastern conus, with a 
central pressure of 1037mb across the eastern portions of Virginia 
and North Carolina will shift east over the western Atlantic 
Tuesday night, while a strong cold front approaches the region 
from the northwest Wednesday morning. This will allow a light 
southeasterly wind flow Tuesday evening to shift to the south by 
late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, bringing and increase in 
moisture across the forecast area. 


Rain chances will increase Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon 
ahead of the trough and cold front, with numerous to definite rain 
showers expected west of the line from Camden Alabama to Orange 
Beach Alabama by late Tuesday night, with isolated to scattered 
coverage to the east. There is a 100 percent chance of rain showers, 
along with a slight chance of thunderstorms, throughout the day 
Wednesday across the entire forecast area as the strong cold front 
approaches I-65. The precipitation will taper off from west to east 
Wednesday night as the cold front moves southeast of I-65 and off 
the coast. 


A cold, dry period will follow Thursday and Thursday as the upper 
trough moves east of the region, followed by the reinforcing upper 
trough late Thursday night. Surface high pressure will also build in 
from the west throughout the day Thursday, followed by a reinforcing 
shot of cold air moving through the forecast area late Thursday 
night. /22 


Long term /Friday through Monday/...the dry period will persist 
Friday through Saturday afternoon as a strong surface high pressure 
area settles across the southeast states. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) models 
are in better agreement in the upper levels bringing another upper 
trough that exits the Southern Plains and moves over the western 
Gulf of Mexico Saturday night. However, in the low levels, the 
European model (ecmwf) continues to develop an associated surface low pressure 
area over the northwest Gulf of Mexico Saturday afternoon and 
evening, but now tracks it further south across the central Gulf 
Saturday night through noon Sunday, while the 12z GFS does not 
generate a surface low at all. Due to the potential surface low 
tracking further south, precipitation chances from the European model (ecmwf) have 
lowered significantly and GFS continues to be dry. Due to the low 
forecast confidence at this time, will keep a slight chance of 
rain showers in the forecast for Saturday night and Sunday, and 
keep the precipitation in the form of rain across the region. A 
dry period will then follow Sunday night through Monday. /22 


&& 


Marine...difference in pressure between high over the mid- 
Atlantic and next cold front exiting the plains Tuesday causes 
onshore flow to increase and seas to trend higher. Frontal passage 
is forecast late in the day Wednesday, bringing wind shift and a 
moderate to strong northwest flow in its wake Wednesday night into 
Thursday am. Coverage of showers increase into the middle of the 
week. A slight chance of storms mixed in as well Wednesday. No 
changes made to small craft advisories which will remain in place 
for southern Mobile Bay, adjacent MS sound to out over the open 
Gulf waters from late this evening, continuing into Thursday am. 
/10 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 41 63 59 69 35 52 33 55 / 10 40 70 100 60 0 0 0 
Pensacola 44 62 61 68 39 52 35 55 / 0 30 40 100 90 10 0 0 
Destin 44 62 60 67 43 52 38 55 / 0 20 20 100 100 10 0 0 
Evergreen 33 56 52 67 36 50 31 53 / 0 10 40 100 90 10 0 0 
Waynesboro 34 57 51 63 30 48 29 50 / 0 30 80 100 60 0 0 0 
Camden 34 56 51 66 33 48 30 51 / 0 10 50 100 90 0 0 0 
Crestview 35 59 55 69 39 52 32 56 / 0 20 20 100 100 10 0 0 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...high rip current risk from midnight CST tonight through Thursday 
morning for alz265-266. 


Florida...high rip current risk from midnight CST tonight through Thursday 
morning for flz202-204-206. 


MS...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 am CST Thursday 
for gmz631-632-650-655-670-675. 


&& 






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