Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
330 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015 


Synopsis... 
low pressure located about 150 miles east of Delaware at middle 
afternoon will continue to move out to sea. Weak high pressure is 
forecast to settle overhead for Sunday into Monday. A warm front 
approaching from the southwest is expected to lift through our 
region from late Monday night into Tuesday. Another front is 
anticipated to arrive from the northwest on Wednesday. The 
boundary is forecast to remain in or near our region for Thursday 
with an area of low pressure expected to move along the front at 
that time. Weak high pressure is anticipated for Friday into 
Saturday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... 
an area of low pressure will move farther off the coast this evening and 
high pressure will move in from the west tonight. Latest radar showed 
precipitation coming to an end across the region. There were some 
additional showers back over Virginia and the hrrr indicates some of these 
could affect mainly southern areas through late aftn, but all precipitation should 
end by sunset. Confidence remains low that these showers will even 
impact the area. 


Then for tonight, dry weather with light wind is expected. Temperatures will 
mainly be in the low to middle 60s. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through 6 PM Sunday/... 
high pressure will be over the region on sun and expect a very nice 
day. Dry wx, pleasant temperatures and dew points will make for a great 
way to end the Holiday weekend. Temperatures will generally be in the middle 
80s. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday night through Saturday/... 
a weak middle level low is forecast to be located over eastern 
Kentucky on Sunday night. It is expected to lift into Ohio on 
Monday before becoming an open wave and getting absorbed into the 
main middle level flow. The feature is anticipated to pass over our 
region on Tuesday afternoon. Another middle level trough is forecast 
to approach from the west during the middle week period and it is 
expected to pass overhead on Thursday night. Some middle level 
ridging may take place over the northeast for Friday with another 
short wave trough anticipated to move toward our region from the 
west during next weekend. 


Weak high pressure at the surface should keep conditions dry for 
Sunday night into Monday with one exception. There may be 
scattered showers and thunderstorms from our Delaware-Maryland-Virginia counties up 
into Chester County and Berks County on Monday as some marginal 
instability develops. Moisture should be limited and a middle level 
cap is expected to exist over much of the remainder of our 
forecast area. 


A warm front is forecast to lift through our region from late 
Monday night into Tuesday. There may be some low clouds, haze and 
patchy fog from late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The 
increase in moisture and the development of marginal instability 
along with the remnants of the weak middle level low passing overhead 
could result in the development of scattered showers and 
thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon. 


Another frontal boundary is expected to drop into our region from 
the northwest on Wednesday. The approaching boundary along with 
increasing instability due to daytime heating should result in 
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in central and 
eastern Pennsylvania. The convection is forecast to move into 
northeastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey during the 
afternoon. 


The boundary is forecast to remain in our region for Wednesday 
night into Thursday with a continuing chance for precipitation. 
Surface low pressure associated with a short wave trough traveling 
in the middle level flow is expected to ride along the front. The low 
is anticipated to pass through our region on Thursday afternoon or 
Thursday evening. We will mention the potential for more showers 
and thunderstorms at that time. 


Precipitable water values are forecast to rise near or above 2 
inches during the middle week period. Any thunderstorms on Tuesday, 
Wednesday or Thursday could bring heavy downpours along with 
localized flooding of roadways and areas of poor drainage. 


The surface low and the middle level short wave are expected to move 
to our east on Thursday night and Friday and they should push the 
frontal boundary to our south. As a result, there will be a 
decreasing chance of precipitation for Friday and Saturday as weak 
high pressure builds into our region. 


Temperatures are anticipated to be within a few degrees of normal 
for the period from Sunday night through Saturday. 


&& 


Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, 
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


VFR conds are expected through the taf period. Precipitation is coming to an 
end across the region. Even in those areas to the north and west where it 
was steadier earlier conds remained VFR for the most part. There 
could still be some additional showers through late aftn, mainly S and W, 
but will still go with VFR conds. After 00z, any and all precipitation 
chances will have ended. Then expect a gradually clearing sky. Few in 
the way of clouds on sun, with the most cloudiness to the S. 


The NE wind will become light and variable overnight, more northerly 
early ion sun before shifting to the S or SW later on sun. Wind 
speeds will be less than 10 knots through the taf period. 


Outlook... 
Sunday night and Monday...mainly VFR. Patchy late night and early 
morning fog and haze are possible. 


Monday night and Tuesday morning...conditions possibly lowering 
to MVFR or IFR in low clouds, haze and fog especially during the 
late night and early morning hours. 


Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening...mainly VFR with a chance 
of showers and thunderstorms. 


Tuesday night and Wednesday morning...conditions possibly 
lowering to MVFR or IFR in low clouds, haze and fog especially 
during the late night and early morning hours. 


Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...scattered showers and 
thunderstorms possibly causing conditions to lower to MVFR or IFR 
at times. 


&& 


Marine... 
it now appears any chance of Small Craft Advisory conds tonight will not 
materialize and no marine headlines are anticipated through the near 
and short term periods. 


Outlook... 
Sunday night through Thursday...no marine headlines are 
anticipated. 


&& 


Tides/coastal flooding... 
we may come close to minor tidal flooding with tonight's tidal 
cycle, but it still appears that we will remain below criteria. 


&& 


Rip currents... 
a moderate risk of rip currents continues for the New Jersey 
coast. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...iovino 
near term...nierenberg 
short term...nierenberg 
long term...iovino 
aviation...iovino/nierenberg 
marine...iovino/nierenberg 
tides/coastal flooding...nierenberg 
rip currents...nierenberg 



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