Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
347 am EDT Wednesday Apr 23 2014 


Synopsis... 
a high pressure system located over south central Canada this 
morning will build south and east then across our region through 
Friday and then weaken Friday night. A low pressure system will 
move north of the area Friday night and Saturday. Its associated 
front will cross the region early Saturday. More high pressure 
will arrive for Sunday and Sunday night. An unsettled pattern will 
set up for next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
high pressure will build down from Canada into the Midwest today as 
low pressure off of new eng and its associated cold front slowly move eastward. 
The gradient between these two features will keep a tight northwesterly wind 
over the region. The wind could gust upwards of 30 miles per hour and higher. 
Temperatures will average 10-15 degrees cooler than on Tuesday, with highs 
struggling to hit 60 degrees. Today should be generally precipitation free, 
but a shower could not be ruled out, mainly in the higher terrain in 
the northwesterly flow 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Thursday/... 
the high pressure system will move slowly toward the region tonight. 
Expect a generally clear sky. The wind will subside a bit but remain 
gusty at least for the first part of tonight and possibly through the 
whole night. There will be at least patchy frost in many areas as 
temperatures fall into the 30s. Conds will have to be examined for possible 
frost headlines. One negating factor is the wind, but regardless it 
will feel even colder (especially for late april) with the gust northwest 
wind. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/... 
high pressure will be to the west of the area Thursday morning. It 
will move east and crest across the middle Atlantic Thursday night and 
into Friday morning. It will then move offshore later Friday. Thursday through 
early Friday will have dry weather across the area along with seasonable 
temperatures. Highs Thursday will mostly be in the 60s. Relative humidity 
levels will be rather low Thursday and with some gusty winds expected 
early...there will continue to be some fire weather concerns. A Fire 
Weather Watch will be added for Thursday. 


A low pressure system and upper trough will be moving across New 
York and New England Friday and Friday night. An attached front will cross 
our region Friday night. We have only made small changes to the already 
chance pop forecast for these periods. Instability for Friday/Friday night looks 
low...so no thunder will be mentioned at this time. High temperatures Friday 
and Sat will be a little above normal with upper 60s/low 70s over 
most areas...cooler over the southern Poconos. A few showers may linger 
across the northern areas Sat...but overall a fair weather day expected. 


Fair weather is also expected for Sat night through Sunday night as 
high pressure builds down from Canada and settles over the area. It 
will be breezy and dry as well. Highs sun will be a little cooler 
than Sat with readings only topping out in the low/middle 60s. 


A warm front will approach Sun night and Monday and this will be the 
start of an unsettled period for much of early next week. We have 
carried slight chance for showers Monday and then mostly chance probability of precipitation for the 
rest of the forecast. Wpc offered some high chance/low likely probability of precipitation for late 
in the extended period...but these were trimmed to better align 
with other offices. Temperatures Monday-Wednesday will be just a little below 
normal. 




&& 


Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, 
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


VFR conds are expected through the taf period as high pressure slowly 
builds in from the Midwest behind last night's cold front passage. 


The pgrad between this high and low pressure off of new eng will keep a 
strong and gusty northwest wind over the area today. The wind could gust 
upwards of 30 kts during the day before subsiding a bit in the evening 
and possibly some more overnight. Still the wind should remain in the 
10-15 knots range the whole time...at least. 


Outlook... 
Thursday through Friday morning...VFR expected. 
Friday afternoon through Sat...mostly VFR with scattered showers possible. 
Sat night through sun...mostly VFR. 


&& 


Marine... 
the gale warng will remain in place for the ocean and Small Craft Advisory on the 
Bay. Will have to monitor especially the Lower Bay for an upgrade to 
glw if needed. 


Outlook... 
Thursday...gales on the ocean will diminish and Small Craft Advisory flags will be 
around much of the day...on del Bay also. 
Thursday night through sun...mostly sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. Near Small Craft Advisory gusts Friday 
afternoon/evening. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
the fire weather headlines will be changed as follows....the Fire 
Weather Watch for today will be upgraded to a red flag warning and 
another Fire Weather Watch will be issued for Thursday. 


Relative humidity values may stay above 30 percent on today, at least in some 
areas, but fuel moisture values will also be a problem as overnight 
rainfall was light. The main concern is the wind which will gust in 
the 30 to 35 miles per hour range. Any fire that gets started will spread 
quickly under these conditions. 


Fire weather concerns are likely to continue into Thursday. Wind 
gusts should be a bit lower. However, with warmer temperatures...relative humidity 
values will drop below 20 percent in many locations Thursday 
afternoon. The fuel moisture levels will continue to be rather 
low... so interested parties should continue to monitor the fire 
weather forecasts. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 8 PM EDT this 
evening for paz054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. 
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday 
evening for paz054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. 
New Jersey...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 8 PM EDT this 
evening for njz001-007>010-012>027. 
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday 
evening for njz001-007>010-012>027. 
Delaware...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 8 PM EDT this 
evening for dez001>004. 
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday 
evening for dez001>004. 
Maryland...red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 8 PM EDT this 
evening for mdz008-012-015-019-020. 
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday 
evening for mdz008-012-015-019-020. 
Marine...Gale Warning from 8 am this morning to noon EDT Thursday for 
anz450>455. 
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for anz430-431. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...O'Hara 
near term...nierenberg 
short term...nierenberg 
long term...O'Hara 
aviation...nierenberg/O'Hara 
marine...nierenberg/O'Hara 
fire weather...staff 












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