Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
820 am EDT Sat Apr 25 2015 


Synopsis... 
weak high pressure covers our area today. Low pressure over the 
lower Ohio Valley will pass off the North Carolina coast Sunday. 
That low becomes part of large low pressure circulation over the 
northwest Atlantic early next week. A low pressure system over the 
northern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night emerges off the southeastern 
Seaboard late Wednesday and Thursday and heads northeast. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
the frost/freeze headlines were allowed to expire at 12z, as 
temperatures continue to rise this morning. 


Today...variable high cloud cover. The thicker skycover from far 
southeast PA and snj southward. Sprinkles may develop toward 6 PM over 
Talbot/Caroline and southern Sussex counties on the SW edge of our 
forecast area. Forecast temperatures today were a 1/3rd blend of the 
00z/25 GFS/NAM MOS and 00z/25 European model (ecmwf) 2m temperatures. The European model (ecmwf) is quite 
cool under the clouds over the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia and have modified the 
NCEP MOS downward there. Warmest temperatures in our forecast area today 
should be in northern New Jersey where there should be more sunshine. 


A nice day with much less wind than the previous Wednesday-Thu-Friday 
afternoons. 


Daytimes temperatures will be warming a bit except the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia where it 
will be chilly today and maximum temperatures almost 15 degrees below 
normal while maximum temperatures around Allentown and Mount 
Pocono northeastward through nnj should only be 8 to 10 degrees below 
normal. 


A weak wind shift boundary will be forming just to our north late 
in the day with westerly winds gusting to 15 miles per hour during the 
afternoon in PA and nnj but sea breezes should develop coastal New Jersey 
and coastal Delaware. Winds on the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia will be light where less 
mixing is expected due to heavier skycover. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/... 
tonight...thick high cloud along and south of I-78, with the northern 
portion of the forecast rain shield a blend of HPC qpf, 50 50 
00z/25 NAM/GFS MOS and multi model .10 in 6 hours. That means mainly 
the southernmost 40 miles of our cwa, Talbot County, Queen Annes 
and Caroline counties in Maryland and Sussex County de, possibly Kent 
County Delaware and possibly the southern tip of New Jersey. This cloud cover today 
and cloud cover/rain tonight is associated with the low redeveloping 
near the NC coast. A wind shift from light west to north-northeast 
progresses from north to south through our County Warning Area during the night. 


Patchy frost is in the forecast north of I-78 tonight. No new frost advisory 
at this time due to the uncertainty of the northern edge of thick cloud 
cover. It already froze up there this morning so early susceptible 
blooms were probably damaged. 


&& 


Long term /Sunday through Friday/... 
a low pressure system will be moving offshore Sunday morning and 
its associated clouds and light rains will be affecting the southern 
parts of our area. Some light rain will pull away by evening with 
perhaps up to a tenth of an inch possible. Elsewhere...partly to 
mostly sunny north and central areas with temperatures near 
normal. 


Cooler air arrives for Monday and Tuesday as the large upper low 
offshore rotates a few short waves and surface troughs across the 
area. Scattered showers are expected Monday with chance probability of precipitation. Drier air 
arrives Tuesday...but still a slight chance for a shower far north. 
Temperatures will run several degrees below normal Mon/Tue...with 
Tuesday likely the milder day. 


The European model (ecmwf)/GFS models both show another surface/upper low strengthening 
across the southeast states and moving northeast...just east of 
our area. It appears to be another glancing shot of clouds and 
rains S/east for Thursday and into early Friday. Any changes with the track 
could bring some heavier rains to the area. We have just used the 
wpc probability of precipitation for now...mostly chance (thu) and slight chance (thu night). 
Temperatures will return to near normal for the middle/late part 
of next week. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, 
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


Today...broken ceilings at or above 12000 feet developing south portion may briefly 
thin late in the day. Higher thinner clouds kabe northward. 


Light west - northwest wind wind becoming west midday with gusts 
to 15 knots possible during the afternoon in New Jersey/PA but seabreezes 
develop along coastal sections middle and late afternoon. 


Tonight...ceilings at or above 8000 ft, especially after 03z/26. A sprinkle 
possible kphl/kilg/kmiv kacy but not in the forecast at this time. It may be 
too dry in the layer under 8000 feet. Light west wind shifting north-NE 
during the night. Please see tafs for timing details as a wind 
shift boundary sags southward. 


Outlook... 


Sunday...mainly VFR conditions, as any sub-VFR in rain to start 
across southern areas will improve back to VFR. 


Monday...mainly VFR conditions; although, some isolated showers are 
possible. Gusty north to northwest winds, with gusts to 20 knots. 


Tuesday and Wednesday...mainly VFR expected; although, conditions 
may deteriorate late Wednesday night depending on the timing and 
track of a possible coastal low pressure. 


&& 


Marine... 
sub Small Craft Advisory conditions through tonight with northwest to north winds 
backing to westerly midday then sea breezes during middle - late 
afternoon. Light winds tonight becoming north-NE late. 


Outlook... 
Sunday/Sunday night...sub-sca conditions. Rain south. 
Monday/Monday night...mostly sub-Small Craft Advisory but some wind gusts around 
25 kts possible. Scattered showers. Tuesday through Wednesday...mostly sub Small Craft Advisory. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
dry conditions are expected once again today, with minimum relative humidity 
values once again ranging from 20 to 35 percent north to south. 
However, winds will be considerably lighter, with gusts generally 
near or below 15 miles per hour through the day. No action at this time. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...O'Hara 
near term...drag/Kline 
short term...drag 
long term...O'Hara 
aviation...drag/O'Hara 
marine...drag/O'Hara 
fire weather... 






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