Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 1231 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015 Synopsis... strong high pressure will continue to progress northeastward, cresting to the south of Newfoundland later today. A cold front will cross our region Saturday followed by high pressure to the north building toward the area Sunday and Monday. Unsettled weather is expected Tuesday into early Wednesday as strengthening low pressure lifts north through the Great Lakes and a cold front crosses the middle-Atlantic region. && Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... strong southwesterly flow and abundant sunshine had led to a beautiful Thanksgiving day. Temperatures have soared into the 60s, and many areas have already hit or are close to their previous forecast highs. Therefore have upped high temperatures by a few degrees. Continue to make tweaks to temperatures based on current observation and latest guid, and being late Nov, the guidance is losing. S-southwesterly low-level winds (below 700 mb) around the ridge will produce a warm air advection pattern over the County Warning Area today. Compared to yesterday, 925-850 mb temperatures today are forecast to average 6c (11f) higher. Did not go quite that much warmer for maximum temperatures today as it will be difficult to fully mix down the warm air owing to low sun angle and with high clouds filtering the sunshine at times. Forecast highs are close to 10f above normal for most of the area, ranging from near 50f in the Poconos to middle 60s toward the lower Delaware-Maryland-Virginia. The ridge axis of the surface high, which currently bisects our cwa, is expected to shift slightly southward, which will allow the surface winds to veer more out of the south today. Expect wind speeds to generally be under 10 miles per hour. && Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/... expect light winds and boundary-layer decoupling tonight with the surface ridge axis over the area. The setup for fog should be slightly better tonight than in recent ones with return flow around the high helping to draw moisture back into the middle-Atlantic region. The high clouds will play a factor in determining the extent of the fog. If clouds winds up being more overcast and dense, it may keep fog rather patchy. Forecast soundings from the NAM also hints at the development of stratus County Warning Area-wide while the GFS confines the potential stratus to the coastal plain. Forecast min temperatures comprised of a mav/met blend. Expect lows to be 10-15 degrees warmer tonight than last night. && Long term /Friday through Wednesday/... a mild start to the long term period Friday as strong departing high pressure will continue to influence the middle Atlantic Seaboard. The day may begin with some patchy morning fog across the region with a southeasterly onshore flow leading to an uptick in low level moisture. Otherwise, a dry and rather warm late November day is in store as daytime temperatures top out some 10 to 12 degrees above average, with highs ranging from the 50s across the north to the lower and middle 60s from the Delaware valley to central/southern New Jersey and the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia. By overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, a cold front will be approaching our region from the northwest. Moisture continues to appear relatively limited with this boundary, but we have kept some low chance probability of precipitation for showers as the front gradually passes from northwest to southeast across the forecast area from late Friday night through Saturday. This front may tend to get hung up across southern parts of the forecast area into Sunday, and we have kept some low probability of precipitation in place mainly across southern New Jersey and the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia from Saturday night through Sunday. As noted by the previous shift, overall precipitation amounts with this frontal passage continue to look unimpressive as generally under half of an inch of rainfall is expected. Also to consider from Sunday into Monday will be an area of high pressure across southern Canada beginning to build south toward the region, and this may help to limit the extent of any lingering showers Sunday across our forecast area. This high pressure will certainly aid in bringing a noticeably cooler airmass into the region over the weekend and into Monday as temperatures tumble back to seasonal averages, with daytime highs Sunday and Monday mainly in the 40s to lower 50s across the region. There continues to be a fair amount of uncertainty with the latter part of the long term period, but there is a little more similarity in latest 00z model solutions as compared to 24 hours ago. Of note, the GFS and European model (ecmwf) both develop low pressure around the lower Ohio Valley Monday night. This low is forecast to then strengthen as it lifts north across the Great Lakes into Tuesday and Tuesday night, with an associated cold front prognosticated to cross our area late Tuesday night to early morning Wednesday. Even though there are some similarities, there are still notable differences in the track and strength of the low pressure through the Great Lakes, as well as the amount of moisture with the frontal passage across our area. With the latest 00z European model (ecmwf) still developing a stronger low pressure and cold front, it continues to be the wetter solution for our forecast area Tuesday to Tuesday night as compared to the GFS. We have kept the idea of high chance probability of precipitation for Tuesday to Tuesday night for the forecast area and blended in the latest wpc and superblend guidance for temperatures, winds, and other elements through Tuesday and Wednesday. && Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/... the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. VFR today. Expect a southerly wind this afternoon with speeds of 5-8 knots. There is a potential for low clouds and/or fog to develop late tonight (generally after 06z except maybe earlier near the coast). The fog may wind up being patchy though with broken to overcast hi clouds overhead. Any stratus would be favored near the coast (in vc of Acy/ miv) due to an onshore flow. Some of the latest guidance is much more pessimistic with ceilings/visibilities late tonight/Erly Friday. However, other guidance remains about the same. For now, will keep the tafs pretty much as they were, with some MVFR overnight. Confidence is low. We could end up with IFR/LIFR if the lower guidance ends up being correct. As other guidance comes in will make any changes, as needed. Outlook... Friday...mainly VFR conditions are expected. Some patchy fog is possible in the morning, and some lower ceilings may also develop with southeast, onshore winds. Friday night and Saturday...some sub-VFR conditions possible at times in showers as a cold front crosses the area. Sunday and Monday...mainly VFR conditions. Slight chance for some showers, especially across the southern terminals. && Marine... southeasterly winds 5-10 knots are forecast for today and tonight. Seas in the coastal Atlantic are forecast to increase gradually through tonight in accordance with a building medium-period southeasterly swell. Went conservative with the wave height forecast for tonight compared to the wave watch guidance as it tends to be overdone in these setups. With the support from the latest Swan output, felt that there was enough confidence to issue a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas for our coastal Atlantic waters south of Cape May. The Small Craft Advisory GOES into effect late tonight. Outlook... Friday...a Small Craft Advisory has been raised for hazardous seas for most of our Atlantic coastal waters, except off of the far northern New Jersey coast. Seas are expected to steadily rise into the 5 to 6 foot range during the daytime Friday. This Small Craft Advisory may eventually need to be extended to include the waters off the Monmouth County coast, but since wavewatch guidance can tend to increase seas a little too quickly in a southerly flow, we decided to hold off any headlines for now. Saturday...hazardous seas may continue for our Atlantic coastal waters, and the Small Craft Advisory flag may need to be extended in time. Sunday...winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels are expected. Monday...onshore flow may lead to another period of hazardous seas for our waters, with waves into the 5 to 6 foot range possible. && Climate... the following locations may experience near record warmth Friday November 27, presuming there is considerable sunshine from midday- early afternoon Onward with a south to southwest wind of around 10 miles per hour. All guidance is now in agreement favoring a very nice day for the first big shopping day after Thanksgiving...after any early morning clouds/fog and mex/ece MOS almost identical to each other. Of the records below...it appears kmpo is least likely to approach, holding in the 50s. Record highs for Friday November 27 kabe 62 -1988 and 1959 krdg 65- 2011 kmpo 60- 2006 and 1984 kacy 69- 1981 && Phi watches/warnings/advisories... PA...none. New Jersey...none. Delaware...none. Maryland...none. Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from noon Friday to 6 am EST Saturday for anz451>453. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 am Friday to 6 am EST Saturday for anz454-455. && $$ Synopsis...Kline near term...Klein/nierenberg short term...Klein long term...Kline aviation...Klein/Kline/nierenberg marine...Klein/Kline climate...
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