Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
1231 PM EST Thursday Nov 26 2015 

strong high pressure will continue to progress northeastward, 
cresting to the south of Newfoundland later today. A cold front will 
cross our region Saturday followed by high pressure to the north 
building toward the area Sunday and Monday. Unsettled weather is 
expected Tuesday into early Wednesday as strengthening low pressure 
lifts north through the Great Lakes and a cold front crosses the 
middle-Atlantic region. 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
strong southwesterly flow and abundant sunshine had led to a beautiful 
Thanksgiving day. Temperatures have soared into the 60s, and many areas 
have already hit or are close to their previous forecast highs. 
Therefore have upped high temperatures by a few degrees. Continue to make 
tweaks to temperatures based on current observation and latest guid, and being late 
Nov, the guidance is losing. 

S-southwesterly low-level winds (below 700 mb) around the ridge will produce 
a warm air advection pattern over the County Warning Area today. Compared to yesterday, 925-850 mb 
temperatures today are forecast to average 6c (11f) higher. Did not go 
quite that much warmer for maximum temperatures today as it will be difficult 
to fully mix down the warm air owing to low sun angle and with high 
clouds filtering the sunshine at times. Forecast highs are close to 
10f above normal for most of the area, ranging from near 50f in the 
Poconos to middle 60s toward the lower Delaware-Maryland-Virginia. 

The ridge axis of the surface high, which currently bisects our cwa, 
is expected to shift slightly southward, which will allow the 
surface winds to veer more out of the south today. Expect wind 
speeds to generally be under 10 miles per hour. 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/... 
expect light winds and boundary-layer decoupling tonight with the 
surface ridge axis over the area. The setup for fog should be 
slightly better tonight than in recent ones with return flow around 
the high helping to draw moisture back into the middle-Atlantic region. 
The high clouds will play a factor in determining the extent of the 
fog. If clouds winds up being more overcast and dense, it may keep 
fog rather patchy. Forecast soundings from the NAM also hints at the 
development of stratus County Warning Area-wide while the GFS confines the potential 
stratus to the coastal plain. 

Forecast min temperatures comprised of a mav/met blend. Expect lows to be 
10-15 degrees warmer tonight than last night. 


Long term /Friday through Wednesday/... 
a mild start to the long term period Friday as strong departing high 
pressure will continue to influence the middle Atlantic Seaboard. The 
day may begin with some patchy morning fog across the region with a 
southeasterly onshore flow leading to an uptick in low level 
moisture. Otherwise, a dry and rather warm late November day is in 
store as daytime temperatures top out some 10 to 12 degrees above 
average, with highs ranging from the 50s across the north to the 
lower and middle 60s from the Delaware valley to central/southern New Jersey 
and the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia. 

By overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, a cold front will 
be approaching our region from the northwest. Moisture continues to 
appear relatively limited with this boundary, but we have kept some 
low chance probability of precipitation for showers as the front gradually passes from 
northwest to southeast across the forecast area from late Friday 
night through Saturday. This front may tend to get hung up across 
southern parts of the forecast area into Sunday, and we have kept 
some low probability of precipitation in place mainly across southern New Jersey and the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia 
from Saturday night through Sunday. As noted by the previous shift, 
overall precipitation amounts with this frontal passage continue to look 
unimpressive as generally under half of an inch of rainfall is 
expected. Also to consider from Sunday into Monday will be an area 
of high pressure across southern Canada beginning to build south 
toward the region, and this may help to limit the extent of any 
lingering showers Sunday across our forecast area. This high 
pressure will certainly aid in bringing a noticeably cooler airmass 
into the region over the weekend and into Monday as temperatures 
tumble back to seasonal averages, with daytime highs Sunday and 
Monday mainly in the 40s to lower 50s across the region. 

There continues to be a fair amount of uncertainty with the latter 
part of the long term period, but there is a little more similarity 
in latest 00z model solutions as compared to 24 hours ago. Of note, 
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) both develop low pressure around the lower Ohio 
Valley Monday night. This low is forecast to then strengthen as it 
lifts north across the Great Lakes into Tuesday and Tuesday night, 
with an associated cold front prognosticated to cross our area late Tuesday 
night to early morning Wednesday. Even though there are some 
similarities, there are still notable differences in the track and 
strength of the low pressure through the Great Lakes, as well as the 
amount of moisture with the frontal passage across our area. With 
the latest 00z European model (ecmwf) still developing a stronger low pressure and 
cold front, it continues to be the wetter solution for our forecast 
area Tuesday to Tuesday night as compared to the GFS. We have kept 
the idea of high chance probability of precipitation for Tuesday to Tuesday night for the 
forecast area and blended in the latest wpc and superblend guidance 
for temperatures, winds, and other elements through Tuesday and 


Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, 
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 

VFR today. Expect a southerly wind this afternoon with speeds of 5-8 

There is a potential for low clouds and/or fog to develop late 
tonight (generally after 06z except maybe earlier near the coast). 
The fog may wind up being patchy though with broken to overcast hi clouds 
overhead. Any stratus would be favored near the coast (in vc of Acy/ 
miv) due to an onshore flow. 

Some of the latest guidance is much more pessimistic with ceilings/visibilities 
late tonight/Erly Friday. However, other guidance remains about the 
same. For now, will keep the tafs pretty much as they were, with 
some MVFR overnight. Confidence is low. We could end up with 
IFR/LIFR if the lower guidance ends up being correct. As other guidance 
comes in will make any changes, as needed. 


Friday...mainly VFR conditions are expected. Some patchy fog is 
possible in the morning, and some lower ceilings may also develop 
with southeast, onshore winds. 

Friday night and Saturday...some sub-VFR conditions possible at 
times in showers as a cold front crosses the area. 

Sunday and Monday...mainly VFR conditions. Slight chance for some 
showers, especially across the southern terminals. 


southeasterly winds 5-10 knots are forecast for today and tonight. 

Seas in the coastal Atlantic are forecast to increase gradually through 
tonight in accordance with a building medium-period southeasterly swell. Went 
conservative with the wave height forecast for tonight compared to 
the wave watch guidance as it tends to be overdone in these setups. 
With the support from the latest Swan output, felt that there was 
enough confidence to issue a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas for our coastal 
Atlantic waters south of Cape May. The Small Craft Advisory GOES into effect late 


Friday...a Small Craft Advisory has been raised for hazardous seas 
for most of our Atlantic coastal waters, except off of the far 
northern New Jersey coast. Seas are expected to steadily rise into the 5 to 
6 foot range during the daytime Friday. This Small Craft Advisory may eventually need 
to be extended to include the waters off the Monmouth County coast, 
but since wavewatch guidance can tend to increase seas a little too 
quickly in a southerly flow, we decided to hold off any headlines 
for now. 

Saturday...hazardous seas may continue for our Atlantic coastal 
waters, and the Small Craft Advisory flag may need to be extended in time. 

Sunday...winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory levels are expected. 

Monday...onshore flow may lead to another period of hazardous seas 
for our waters, with waves into the 5 to 6 foot range possible. 


the following locations may experience near record warmth Friday 
November 27, presuming there is considerable sunshine from midday- 
early afternoon Onward with a south to southwest wind of around 10 
miles per hour. All guidance is now in agreement favoring a very nice day for 
the first big shopping day after Thanksgiving...after any early 
morning clouds/fog and mex/ece MOS almost identical to each other. 

Of the records appears kmpo is least likely to 
approach, holding in the 50s. 

Record highs for Friday November 27 
kabe 62 -1988 and 1959 
krdg 65- 2011 
kmpo 60- 2006 and 1984 
kacy 69- 1981 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
New Jersey...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from noon Friday to 6 
am EST Saturday for anz451>453. 
Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 am Friday to 6 
am EST Saturday for anz454-455. 


near term...Klein/nierenberg 
short term...Klein 
long term...Kline 

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations
Back to forecast page
Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)

Units: English | Metric

Find the Weather for any City, State or Zipcode, or Country:

U.S. State List | Severe Weather | Tropical Storms | Ski Conditions
United States | Canada | Central America | South America | Asia | Europe | Australia | Africa | Islands

Weather Underground

Copyright© 2015
The Weather Channel, LLC