Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
136 am EDT Wednesday Apr 1 2015 


Synopsis... 
low pressure will cross the area early tonight and then move off 
into the Atlantic later overnight. High pressure across the upper 
Great Lakes will build over the area Wednesday and then move away 
Thursday. Low pressure crossing Canada and its associated front 
will bring showers for Friday and into the early part of the 
weekend. High pressure will arrive for the end of the weekend. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am this morning/... 
no big changes to the grids with this update. Precipitation has moved 
offshore as the surface low is exiting rapidly to the east. Skies are 
clearing. Gradient winds though have been a little on the light 
side and we adjusted them down. 


Overnight min temperatures are forecast to drop to the low/middle 30s over northern 
Delaware-Maryland-Virginia...however the start of the growing season was postponed 
until April 11th for the Delmarva, no frost product considerations 
until then. 


&& 


Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM Thursday/... 
high pressure will build eastward into the region on Wednesday. This 
will mean plenty of sunshine across the region. Northwest winds will 
continue ahead of the high pressure system around 10 miles per hour. 925 mb 
temperatures rebounding to around 0c suggest a fairly decent shot at 
low 50's for phl with quite a bit less spread from south to north 
with temperatures across the region when compared to today. Met/mav 
used with most elements. 


&& 


Long term /Thursday night through Tuesday/... 
no april's fool joke here...looks like a prolonged period of 
Spring- like weather across the region for the long term. 


The upper trough across the eastern part of the country will stop 
recharging on Canadian cold air and upper heights will return back 
to near normal with some ridging across the east next week. There 
will be periods of showers from time to time...but rain will be the 
p-type across the area. Temperatures will rise above normal for the 
late part of the week...before returning back to near normal for the 
weekend and into early next week. 


Wednesday night through Thursday...high pressure will be across the area with 
dry weather expected. Temperatures near normal Wednesday night and a few 
degrees above normal Thursday. 


Thursday night through Sat...a subtle upper trough and surface front approach 
from the west Thursday night and Friday. Chances for showers increase from the 
west Thursday night and then a low develops along the front to the south and 
moves along it across our area Friday and Friday night. The low deepens 
rather strongly...so a decent shot of rain and scattered thunderstorms expected. 
Likely probability of precipitation are in the grids for much of the area at this time. Precipitation 
tapers off from west to east Sat morning. Temperatures will be above normal Thursday 
night through Friday and then drop back to near normal Sat. 


Sat night through Monday...mostly dry. Few showers possible north/west Monday 
afternoon. Temperatures near normal. 


Monday night and Tuesday...low pressure from the plains states moves into 
the Great Lakes. Moisture increases across our area. Followed wpc 
probability of precipitation with mostly chance showers Monday night into Tuesday. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, 
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


The 06z tafs will be VFR during the day and evening today. 


Early overnight...some residual low level clouds (mainly MVFR 
ceilings near the coast and interior valleys) and light fog should 
dissipate by 08z. After that no ceiling or visibility restrictions expected. 
North winds should average around 10 kts. 


This morning...VFR with no ceiling expected. A cumulus deck of clouds 
should start forming. Northwest winds should average 10 to 15 
kts. We might have some gustiness, but believe they should be 
under 20 kts and have not carried them at any taf site. 


This afternoon...a VFR cumulus based ceiling might form at northern and 
PA airports and terminals. Elsewhere we are expecting them to be 
scattered or less. Winds should back ever so slightly more to 
the west with similar speeds. No change to gustiness thinking. 


This evening...clear skies with winds becoming light quickly. 
And continuing overnight. 
Outlook... 
early Thursday...VFR expected. 


Thursday afternoon through Sat morning..periods of MVFR/IFR in showers 
and a few thunderstorms Friday/Friday night. 


Sat afternoon through Sunday...mostly VFR. 


&& 


Marine... 
extended the Small Craft Advisory into lower Delaware Bay, also extended the 
ending time until 13z/9 am this morning. 


Seas and winds will gradually build to Small Craft Advisory levels this evening after 
a passage of a cold front. Small Craft Advisory wind gusts will be from the northwest 
overnight between 25 and 30 knots. Waves will be around five feet. 
Sub Small Craft Advisory seas and winds expected from late morning Onward today. 


Outlook... 


Wednesday night and Thursday morning...fair weather. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. 
Thursday afternoon through Sat morning...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. 
Sat afternoon through sun...sub-sca conditions. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for anz431- 
450>455. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...O'Hara 
near term...amc/Gaines/gigi/Johnson 
short term...Gaines/Johnson 
long term...O'Hara 
aviation...gigi/O'Hara 
marine...Gaines/gigi/Johnson/O'Hara 






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