Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
346 am EDT Monday Sep 22 2014 


Synopsis... 
in the wake of the cold front that moved through last night, a high 
will build in over the region to start the week. By Thursday, a low 
will lift northeast just off shore. Another high will build in 
right behind that and remain the dominant feature through the end 
of the week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
an area of low pressure that pulled a cold front across the area 
overnight will continue to lift into eastern Canada today, while 
high pressure across the central part of the country starts to nose 
into our area from the west. This will create gusty northwest winds 
across the area for much of the day today. Drier air will filter in 
across the area, especially as a secondary trough slides across the 
area later during the day. With precipitable water values below half an inch, no 
precipitation is expected. There will be some cloud cover as the 
stratocu to our northwest filters across the area in the northwest 
flow. Temperatures today were a blend of mixed 925 mb European model (ecmwf) temps, 
mav/met MOS, and mosguide. Overall, highs today are expected to be a 
couple of degrees below normal, although it may feel slightly cooler 
with the breezy conditions and lowering dewpoints. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Tuesday/... 
high pressure will continue to push into the area overnight. Skies 
will begin to clear out after sunset, and wind gusts will diminish 
as well. Light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to good 
radiational cooling. Overnight lows were a blend of mav/met MOS and 
mosguide, which brings everyone a few degrees below normal. 
Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 30s across the 
Poconos, but we still think most areas should be warm enough to 
prevent frost from forming, although a few isolated spots of frost 
would not be surprising. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/... 
Tuesday into Wednesday...the surface high will slowly slide 
propagate northeast away from the region. In the upper levels, the 
main upper level trough will also be lifting NE towards the North 
Atlantic. As a result expect increasing thicknesses. Thus, could 
see a modest warming trend through this period from temperatures 
slightly below normal on Tuesday to near normal for Wednesday. 


Wednesday night into Thursday night...as the upper level trough moves 
off over the next few day, a cutoff low is expected on the 
southern end of the trough and then drift southeast over the Carolinas 
through middle week. This looks to be the start of the off shore 
system that could affect our coastal waters and far eastern zones 
through this period. Models are still in poor agreement on the 
track of this low, and model agreement may not improve much until 
the cutoff low develops. At this point, expect any impacts, 
limited at that, to be confined to Delaware-Maryland-Virginia and southern and 
eastern New Jersey. Kept probability of precipitation in this area limited to slight chance 
mention withe the track uncertainty. 


Friday and beyond...another high builds over the region by 
Friday. The associated upper level ridge is unusually high 
amplitude for this time of year, as the center of the high both at 
the surface and in the upper levels could be north of the region. 
Thus, expect the region to be under easterly flow which could 
slightly temper the warming trend through this period, but should 
still see temperatures around 5 degrees above normal by Saturday. 
The next thing to watch will come at the very end of the period as 
the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show an upper level trough digging out of 
central Canada into the Great Lakes region towards the end of the 
period. There is still considerable uncertainty with the track and 
uncertainty of this system. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Monday through Friday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, 
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


We expect conditions to be VFR through the taf period, although we 
expect cloud cover to increase this morning through sunrise as 
clouds filter down across the area from the northwest in the 
northwest flow. Ceilings are expected to be in the lower end of the VFR 
range, around 3,000-4,000 feet. Cloud cover will begin dissipating 
later today into this evening, and mostly clear skies expected 
overnight. 


Winds that have not begun gusting yet will begin in the next couple 
of hours through sunrise and continue to be gusty through today. 
Wind gusts will begin to diminish later this afternoon/evening and 
will lighten as high pressure builds into the area tonight, although 
there should still be a light breeze overnight. 


Outlook... 
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR conditions expected. 


Thursday...mostly VFR conditions expected. There is a small risk 
of ceilings into the MVFR range and MVFR visibilities with br and 
-ra closer to the shore including kacy and kmiv. 


Friday...VFR conditions expected. 


&& 


Marine... 
winds are beginning to increase and should gust around 25 knots for 
a good part of the day. Seas are expected to build now the winds are 
increasing, and could build to 5 feet. Therefore the Small Craft 
Advisory remains across the Atlantic Ocean and lower Delaware Bay. 
We ended up extending the advisory a few hours into the afternoon as 
winds and seas may remain elevated. 


Winds and seas are expected to diminish later this afternoon into 
this evening as high pressure continues to build across the area. 


Outlook... 
Tuesday...winds and seas are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. 


Wednesday and Thursday...winds and seas will likely increase by 
middle day Wednesday to Small Craft Advisory criteria. At this point, expect winds to 
gust near or just above 25kt, especially for the coastal zones 
adjacent to Delaware and southern New Jersey. Expect waves to generally remain 
in the 5 to 6 foot range through this period. However, there is some 
uncertainty on the track of this system, and wavewatch guidance 
shows wave heights up to 9 feet through this period, but this seems 
unlikely as the pattern doesn't appear that conducive for such 
large waves and it is currently running a bit high. 


Friday...waves should fall back below Small Craft Advisory criteria early in the 
day. 


&& 


Rip currents... 
local guidance indicates that there will be a moderate risk of rip 
currents today into tonight. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for anz431- 
450>455. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...Johnson 
near term...Robertson 
short term...Robertson 
long term...Johnson 
aviation...Johnson/Robertson 
marine...Johnson/Robertson 
rip currents...Robertson 












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