Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
650 am EST Thursday Nov 27 2014 


Synopsis... 
high pressure will build toward the region today, building across 
the eastern United States through Friday before sliding to the 
south and east later on Saturday. A cold front will slowly move 
towards the region Sunday night and cross the area Monday into 
Monday night. High pressure will return for Tuesday with another 
frontal system expected to arrive on Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
the area of low pressure was centered near western Nova Scotia at 
630 am. It will continue to lose its influence over our region. 


Clouds remained over our region early this morning. There were 
scattered snow showers and flurries over parts of eastern 
Pennsylvania and northern and central New Jersey. The area of snow 
showers and flurries will continue to lift slowly to the northeast 
this morning. Little or no additional accumulation is anticipated. 


Dry air will continue to filter into our area on a relatively 
light west northwest wind today. Speeds should be mainly in the 5 
to 10 miles per hour range. 


A weak middle level vortex was located over eastern Kentucky around 
600 am. The feature will progress to the east and it should pass 
off the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia coast late in the day. The system is forecast to 
spread high and middle level clouds over our region and it may bring 
some light rain showers to our far southern counties. 


Meanwhile, weak cold advection and evaporation from the snow 
cover and moist ground are expected to result in a fair amount of 
stratocumulus for today. Additional scattered flurries or light 
snow showers are possible in the elevated terrain up north. 


Maximum temperatures are forecast to range from the lower and 
middle 30s in the Poconos to the lower 40s on the coastal plain. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/... 
a middle level short wave traveling in the broad long wave trough 
should pass over our region toward daybreak on Friday. While much 
of the stratocumulus over our area should dissipate this evening, 
the short wave is expected to keep high clouds and perhaps some 
middle level clouds overhead. 


A light west northwest wind is expected to continue into tonight. 
Temperatures are forecast to drop into the teens up north and into 
the 20s elsewhere. We went a bit below the forecast guidance 
values where the snow pack is expected to linger. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Wednesday/... 
Friday...cold air settles in for Friday as high pressure starts 
to build into our area. Highs will a few degrees colder than 
Thursday but the sun should be shining across the region through 
the day. Several waves rotate through the middle levels and may spark 
off a few light snow showers across the northwestern areas. 
Limiting factor is just how much moisture will be around to tap 
into as it looks like we will be fairly dry during the day. Will 
keep a mention of some isolated snow showers in the southerns 
Poconos for Friday night at this time. Clouds will start to move 
across the area Friday night and depending on how fast we cloud 
up, we may see slightly warmer lows. Friday night temperatures 
will remain cold and drop down into 20s with teens across the 
higher terrain. 


Saturday...the air mass starts to modify as the high builds across 
the East Coast and then gradually slides to the south and east 
through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be slightly 
warmer than on Friday and and another dry day should be in store 
for the area. Areas across the higher terrain will remain colder 
and some spots may struggle to get above the freezing mark. 
Shortwaves embedded in the middle level flow will rotate through our 
area and there remains a chance some light snow showers may occur 
over the higher terrain and we will continue to mention some 
isolated snow showers in that area. 


The high shifts to the south and east by Saturday night and we 
should be able to remain a bit warmer through the overnight hours 
as we have a building southerly flow and increasing cloud cover. 
Lows will generally be in the 30s, warmer along the coast. 


Sunday...skies continue to cloud up in advance of the approaching 
cold front as warmer and moister air overspreads our area. While 
Sunday looks to be a mostly dry day, some showers may develop in 
advance of the front as yet another shortwave moves across the 
area. Highs will reach into the upper 40s to lower 50s, with low 
to moderate 40s across the higher terrain. 


Monday...model guidance continues to show the front slowly 
dropping down through the area on Monday, pushing offshore Monday 
night. Moisture is limited as the front moves into our area but 
some rain/snow showers remain possible. With the front taking its 
time, highs will be in 40s to 50s across the area before colder 
air once again moves in. Behind the front, we will see the cold 
air move in and overnight lows are expected to drop into the 20s 
to lower 30s across the area. 


Tuesday...as the front moves offshore, any lingering 
precipitation will end from northwest to southeast. A few light 
showers may still be around early Tuesday before clearing occurs. 
High pressure builds in from the west and then slides across to 
the north of the area Tuesday. Maximum temperatures will be about 
5 to 10 degrees colder than on Monday. 


Wednesday...another frontal system makes its way toward our area 
and it looks like it will move into our area on Wednesday. 
Differing opinions in the guidance at this time with respect to 
timing, moisture and position of the boundary as it crosses the 
area. Will continue to mention precipitation in the forecast. 


&& 


Aviation /12z Thursday through Monday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, 
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


MVFR ceiling and visibility restrictions may affect kabe and kttn 
until about 1300z as an area of snow showers lifts through the 
area. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail for today into 
tonight at our taf sites with a fair amount of stratocumulus 
overhead during the daylight hours with bases above 4000 feet. 


A relatively light west northwest wind is expected through the 
taf period. Speeds should favor the 5 to 10 knot range. 


Outlook... 
Friday...VFR conditions expected with northwest winds gusting up 
to 20 knots. 


Saturday...VFR conditions expected with southwest winds around 10 
to 15 knots. 


Sunday...VFR conditions expected with southwest winds around 10 
to 15 knots. 


Monday...VFR conditions expected with northwest winds gusting up 
to 20 knots. 


&& 


Marine... 
as the low continues to move across Nova Scotia this morning, 
wind speeds are on the decrease on our coastal waters. Wave 
heights remain elevated on our ocean waters and they will take 
some time to fall back below 5 feet. As a result, there is a Small 
Craft Advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 400 PM. 


An approaching middle level short wave may cause wind speeds to 
increase on our coastal waters tonight. Gusts near 25 knots are 
possible at that time and we may need to issue another Small Craft 
Advisory to cover that period once the current advisory ends. 


Outlook... 
Friday...winds will pick up in the northwesterly flow and wind 
gusts around 25 to 30 knots will be possible over the ocean 
waters. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed. 


Saturday...sub-advisory conditions expected. 


Sunday through Monday...seas and winds will near Small Craft 
Advisory levels as a cold front approaches and then cross the 
region on Monday. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 PM EST this 
afternoon for anz450>455. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...meola 
near term...iovino 
short term...iovino 
long term...meola 
aviation...iovino/meola 
marine...iovino/meola 












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