Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
934 PM EDT Tuesday Apr 15 2014 


Synopsis... 
a strong cold front will move offshore overnight. High pressure will 
build across the area Wednesday and then move toward New England 
Thursday. A ridge from this high will remain across our area into 
Friday. A weak disturbance will cross the region Friday night and 
Saturday. More high pressure will follow for Sunday and Monday. 
Another disturbance may arrive next Tuesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/... 
precipitation continues over the region and have had to increase probability of precipitation north 
and west and keep them high everywhere else. Hopefully, things should 
start to wind down over the next couple of hours. With temperatures 
dropping rapidly behind the cdfnt, also added a mention of sleet 
from the I-95 Corridor North and W, and snow over the extreme north and W, 
where we have received some reports of some small accumulations. 
Yes, its middle-April! Will gradually taper probability of precipitation through the next few 
hours and more so by midnight and thereafter. This is a slower 
trend then originally forecast. 




The next concern is temperatures. Though winds are expected to 
remain breezy through the overnight hours, skies will clear and as 
previously mentioned, much drier air will be in place. As such, 
guidance came in lower for temperatures tonight. Have followed this 
trend in decreasing the lows for most of the area. The freeze 
warning now includes the New Jersey coastal zones. Locations north of the 
warning will see a freeze as well, however, it is still earlier than 
the median last freeze date, so will not issue a warning for these 
locations. 


&& 


Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through 6 PM Wednesday/... 
winds should decrease through the day, but with continued low level 
northerly flow, do not expect much recovery. Thus, highs are 
expected to be in the upper 40s. Stayed close to the previous 
forecast which is close to the latest mex and mav guidance 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday night through Tuesday/... 
high pressure will be across the area from Wednesday night through 
Friday. We expect a precipitation-free forecast along with slightly below 
normal temperatures. Lows Wednesday night will be a it warmer than Tuesday 
night...but still cold enough for a freeze across much of the 
region. Freeze watch headlines will be issued for those areas where 
the growing season has begun. High temperatures Thursday will mostly 
be in the low/middle 50s...and highs Friday in the middle/upper 50s. 


A shortwave aloft and weak surface low will move north of the area Friday 
night into Saturday. The system has enough moisture/dynamics to 
bring in some clouds and touch off some scattered showers...but we have 
kept the probability of precipitation only at the chance level for now. Overall...Sat will not 
be too bad a day. Highs will reach the low/middle 60s in most areas. 


Another area of high pressure will build across the region for Sat 
night through Monday. More dry weather is expected with temperatures 
just a few degrees below normal for middle April. This high will be 
followed by another somewhat weak disturbance and cold front which 
will affect the area Monday night and lasting into next Tuesday. We have 
sided with the wpc for the most part and gone with chance probability of precipitation for the 
system. 


&& 


Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, 
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


The front has cleared all taf sites and everyone has shifted to 
the northwest. However, enough rain is till around that most sites remain 
MVFR or at least still have that possibility for the next few 
hours. The improvement trend is slower than originally fcst, so 
have pushed it back a couple of hours. However, the trend is still 
there and should become VFR after midnight. 


Northwesterly winds behind the front will stay breezy overnight 
before slowly decreasing after 09z. 


Outlook... 
Wednesday night through Friday...VFR expected. 
Friday night through Sat...mostly VFR but scattered showers possible. 
Sat night and sun...mostly VFR. 


&& 


Marine... 
northwesterly wind will continue to remain gusty behind cold front passage. 


Winds are expected to slowly subside after sunrise tomorrow. Small Craft Advisory 
conditions both for wave heights and winds could continue for much 
of the day tomorrow. 


Outlook... 
Wednesday night through Friday night...a period of mostly low-end Small Craft Advisory 
conditions on the ocean...and sub-Small Craft Advisory on del Bay. 
Sat through sun...mostly sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. 


&& 




Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...freeze warning from 2 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for paz060-070- 
071-101>104-106. 
Freeze watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday 
morning for paz060-070-101>104-106. 
New Jersey...freeze warning from 2 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for njz012>027. 
Freeze watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday 
morning for njz012-013-015>023-027. 
Delaware...freeze warning from 2 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for dez001>003. 
Freeze watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday 
morning for dez001>003. 
Maryland...freeze warning from 2 am to 9 am EDT Wednesday for mdz008-012- 
015-019-020. 
Freeze watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday 
morning for mdz008-012-015-019-020. 
Marine...Gale Warning until noon EDT Wednesday for anz430-431-450>455. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...O'Hara 
near term...Johnson/nierenberg 
short term...Johnson 
long term...O'Hara 
aviation...Johnson/nierenberg/O'Hara 
marine...Johnson/nierenberg/O'Hara 












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