Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
637 am EDT Sat Oct 25 2014 

a cold front over the Midwest this morning will move eastward today 
and through the area tonight. The middle-Atlantic region will be 
situated between low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure 
building in from the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. High pressure ridges 
into the area Sunday night and Monday. A warm front will lift north 
of the area Tuesday before a cold front moves through late 
Wednesday. High pressure briefly returns Thursday. Low pressure may 
develop over the eastern United States Friday. 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
had to adjust the hourly temperatures down quite a bit as most 
points now have completely lost their winds and radiated pretty 
well. Upstream observations indicate that the surface ridge axis 
is just to our west at this hour and will be moving overhead by late 
this morning. Light and variable flow will become more westerly by 
the afternoon with a tightening surface pressure gradient. Ample 
sunshine will allow for decent vertical mixing today, though not 
as strong as in past days...gusts upwards of 20 miles per hour are possible 
this afternoon. A deck of stratocu is possible but given the lack 
of moisture and just reaching convective temperatures not 
expecting anything widespread or thick. 

Temperatures look to have another chance to clip 70f across the 
southern half of the County Warning Area. The westerly downsloping winds and 925mb 
temperatures climbing to around 12c will make this possible. Went a 
couple degrees above guidance for today given the above. 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/... 
gusts should drop off by later this evening and winds back towards 
the southwest just a bit ahead of an approaching weak cold front. 
The front should blast through the region by Sunday morning with just 
a few passing clouds expected. The column will remain dry enough and 
there is not much forcing associated with the front over our region, 
so we keep it dry. Good cold air advection aloft will allow for 
better mixing tonight and coupled with the tighter pressure gradient 
we keep stronger westerly winds through the overnight hours. With 
that being said, used the warmer mav guidance for lows tonight. 


Long term /Sunday through Friday/... 
a vertically-stacked low will be positioned over eastern Canada 
while high pressure is centered just west of the central 
Appalachians. A tight pressure gradient between these two systems 
will reside over the middle-Atlantic region, thus Sunday will be a 
breezy day. 00z NAM/GFS BUFKIT soundings show the potential for 
frequent gusts 25 to 30 miles per hour with occasionally higher gusts to 35 
miles per hour. Post-frontal cold air advection expected to be transient, becoming neutral 
during the afternoon. Therefore, temperatures should be able to reach climatology 
(mid 60s) in most places. 

The pressure gradient will weaken Sunday night as the low lifts into 
the Canadian maritime while high pressure builds toward the middle 
Atlantic. Still not certain on full decoupling, so went conservative 
with min temperatures in the middle/upper 30s northeast PA/northwest New Jersey and 
low/middle 40s from I-95 east. 

High pressure shifts off the southeast coast early in the week. 
South-southwest return flow around the high on late Monday will 
strengthen Tuesday as a warm front advances northward through the 
region and a cold front approaches from the Midwest states. Tuesday 
and Wednesday looks to be the warmest days of the period (max temperatures 
near 70f) with the warm sector established in the region. 

Low pressure will cut well to our northwest as it tracks from the 
Great Lakes toward Hudson Bay midweek. The attendant cold front will 
progress into the area during this time. Differences in timing of 
frontal passage have narrowed with the latest model guidance. The cold front 
will most likely move through Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. 
Showers are possible with the front. Went slightly higher with probability of precipitation 
than previous forecast but still limited to around 30 percent with 
limit moisture/lift along the front. 

Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected behind the front 
Thursday with weak high pressure building in from the Tennessee Valley. 

The details for the end of the week still need to be determined but 
models signaling toward the amplification of a longwave trough over 
the eastern Continental U.S. On Friday. Increasing clouds are likely with 
perhaps showers returning to our area. 


Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg, 
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 

No change with the 12z tafs, added an extra group for phl to bring 
in the strong northwest gusts Sunday morning. 

Today - tonight...VFR. Westerly winds gusting to 20 knots this 
afternoon decrease this evening. Winds back towards the southwest 
ahead of approaching dry cold front. Winds veer to the west again 
behind the front. High confidence. 

Sunday...VFR. Breezy west-northwest winds 15-20 knots will gust up to 30 knots. 

Sunday night through Tuesday night...VFR. Light northwest winds generally 
at or below 10 knots through Monday, becoming southerly Tuesday. 

Wednesday and Wednesday night...generally VFR although a brief 
period of MVFR and rain showers possible with cold frontal passage. 


today...sub-sca expected. Gusts across our southern waters may come 
close to Small Craft Advisory this morning but drop off through the day. Seas will 
remain 3 to 4 feet and decrease by this evening. High confidence. 

Tonight...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected, possible brief gales right behind 
cold front passage...mainly southern waters. Westerly winds increase 
to 20 to 25 knots later tonight as a cold front moves through the 
waters. There is a low-end chance of a few gale gusts but not 
confident...high end Small Craft Advisory gusts expected. High confidence on sca, low 
on gales. 

Sunday and Sunday night...high end Small Craft Advisory Sunday with west-northwest gusting to 
30 knots. Still cannot rule out the possibility for gales but setup not 
particularly favorable for deep mixing as cold air advection aloft ceases rather 
quickly in the morning. Small Craft Advisory extended into Sunday evening for the waters, 
ending south to north overnight for the coastal Atlantic zones as 
the pressure gradient gradually weakens. 

Monday and Monday night...light winds and calm seas. 

Tuesday and Wednesday...southwest winds increase ahead of a cold 
front. Have capped gusts at 20 knots owing to stable mixing profiles. 


Fire weather... 
breezy and dry conditions expected on Sunday behind a cold front. 
Sustained northwest winds near 20 miles per hour are expected. 00z NAM/GFS BUFKIT 
soundings show the potential for frequent gusts of 25 to 30 miles per hour with 
occasionally higher gusts to 35 miles per hour. The Post-frontal cold air advection pattern is 
brief, becoming neutral during the afternoon. Current forecast 
reflects min rhs Sunday afternoon in the low to middle 30s even after 
leaning toward a drier (i.E., Lower dewpoints) solution with 
downsloping west-northwest flow off the higher terrain. Additionally, heating 
may be limited somewhat by stratocu off the Great Lakes, especially 
over the northwest half of the County Warning Area which may prevent rhs from 
falling critical thresholds. An enhanced threat for the spread of 
wildfires may exist on Sunday with the above meteorological factors 
and with forecast fuel moisture below 10 percent but confidence not 
nearly high enough to issue a Fire Weather Watch. 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
New Jersey...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 am EDT Monday 
for anz452>455. 
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 am EDT Monday 
for anz450-451. 
Small Craft Advisory from 8 am to 9 PM EDT Sunday for anz430- 


near term...Heavener 
short term...Heavener 
long term...Klein 
fire weather... 

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