000 
fxus61 kphi 220739 
afdphi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
339 am EDT Tue may 22 2018 


Synopsis... 
a warm front will lift across the area today into this evening 
as an area of low pressure lifts across the Great Lakes region 
and into New York state. A cold front will then move across the 
area tonight into Wednesday morning. High pressure will build 
across the area Thursday, then offshore Friday. A backdoor cold 
front is forecast to move southward across the area late 
Saturday, while a warm front may lift into the area Saturday as 
well. These fronts may stall near the area into early next week. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... 
a low pressure system will track across the Great Lakes today. 
A warm front ahead of the low will bring occasional showers and 
a few tstms to the area this morning. We will then be in the 
warm sector this afternoon with more sct showers and tstms then. 
Widespread severe weather is not expected, but parts of 
Delmarva are in a marginal risk area according to the Storm Prediction Center. It is 
possible that some of the storms there may have strong wind 
gusts later today. Pops will be categorical north/west today and these 
will taper to chc pops S/E. The showers will arrive north/west first 
(this morning), but wait until the afternoon S/E. The overall 
quantitative precipitation forecast will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch, but higher with tstms. 
Temperatures today will be cool across the north with mostly 60s in 
the clouds and showers. Further S over Delmarva readings will 
top out closer to the mid/upper 70s. 


&& 


Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Wednesday/... 
the low to the north will pull away and begin to move down the 
St. Lawrence Valley tonight. An associated cold front will begin 
to approach the area. This will bring a continuation of the 
unsettled conditions from the daytime. More showers and sct 
tstms will be around, mostly during the evening and early 
overnight periods. Again local downpours and gusty winds with 
ant tstm. The higher pops will be across srn New Jersey and Delmarva. It 
will remain warm and humid tonight with lows only dropping into 
the low/mid 60s in most areas and some 50s across the far north and 
northwest. 


&& 


Long term /Wednesday through Monday/... 
quiet conditions start off the extended period, then unsettled 
forecast returns by the weekend into early next week, although 
there is some uncertainty. 


On Wednesday, the cold front will continue to push to our east 
early in the day, so there may still be some lingering showers 
very early in the day. However, as the front continues to push 
southward, the showers should end by midday and dry weather will 
move into the area into Wednesday night. 


High pressure will build across the area on Thursday, before 
pushing offshore Friday. This will provide dry weather, with 
warming temperatures. 


Then the uncertainty begins to build across the area over the 
weekend into early next week. High pressure remains offshore 
Saturday, which will keep strong return flow across the area, 
leading to another day of warmer than normal temperatures. Then 
a backdoor cold front is forecast to advance southward toward 
the area later Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a warm front could 
be lifting northward into the area from the south as well. The 
fronts would merge into one stationary frontal boundary and 
linger near the area into early next week. As multiple short 
wave/vorticity impulses move across the area over the weekend 
into early next week, this could lead to several periods of 
unsettled weather from late Saturday through at least Monday. 


&& 


Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, 
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


Today...a warm front approaching from the west will bring 
lowering ceilings and increasing chcs for showers and a few tstms 
today. The ceilings will lower earlier and lowest north/west and later 
higher S/E. The exact timing of the lower conditions is a bit 
uncertain, but our present tafs are not too different from the 
earlier ones and they mostly align with MOS guidance. Showers 
will be more frequent north/west with categorical pops and less 
frequent S/east where chc pops are in the grids. Winds will be 
rather light today from the southeast or S. Ceilings 


Tonight...low conditions continue with more showers. IFR or low 
end MVFR will predominate with showers and sct tstms 
continuing. It's possible that conditions may improve late 
tonight north/W, but this is still rather uncertain with the models 
showing the front moving a bit slower than before and it may not 
clear the north/west areas until after 12z. Winds again, rather light 
from the S or southeast overnight. 


Outlook... 


Wednesday-Wednesday night...becoming VFR. Showers possible 
early. Northwest winds may gust around 15-20 knots in the afternoon. 


Thursday-Thursday night...VFR. North winds may gust around 15-20 
knots at times during the day. 


Friday-Saturday...VFR. Southwest winds may gust 15-20 knots 
during the day. Showers possible late Saturday. 


&& 


Marine... 
overall, sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected across the waters 
today. An increasing wind today with directions southeast early then S 
during the afternoon. The direction will continue to veer to SW 
tonight. Scattered showers and a few tstms are expected. Locally 
higher winds and seas near tstms can be expected. Seas on the 
ocean will mostly be 2 to 3 ft today and tonight. 


Outlook... 


Wednesday-Thursday night...sub Small Craft Advisory conditions 
expected. 


Friday-Saturday...winds and seas begin to increase and may 
approach Small Craft Advisory levels. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Synopsis...Robertson 
near term...O'Hara 



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