Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey 
230 am EDT Thursday may 5 2016 


Synopsis... 
low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast will pass east of Cape Cod 
late today while another low lags behind east of the Virginia convective available potential energy. 
That second low will proceed northward toward New Jersey Friday... 
then should edge east out to sea Saturday. A cold front is expected 
to move southeast through the region Sunday morning. This will be 
followed by welcomed high pressure into the region for the first part 
of next week. 


&& 


Near term /through today/... 
cloudy. Areas of drizzle early this morning otherwise a rainfree 
day. Temperatures nearly steady through sunrise then only small rises during 
the day with cold air underrunning northeast wind advection from 
the Reservoir of cooler wet bulbs over New England. Maximum temperatures 
maybe 15 below normal. Gusty northeast wind 20 to 25 miles per hour during 
midday and the afternoon. 


Forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 00z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. Probability of precipitation...used the 
hrrr to keep the morning-midday dry (excepting spotty drizzle S 
part of the forecast area). Confidence: above average on all but 
whether any showers will develop this afternoon. 


&& 


Short term /tonight/... 
appears that warm air advection and an instability burst will be 
developing northwestward as a new area of low pressure organizes 
near Delaware. Thunder possible by daybreak Friday near Delaware. 
Showers may be briefly heavy where they do occur though precipitable water only 
increases to near 1 inch. Northeast wind...gusts generally under 
20 miles per hour. 


Forecast based on a 50 50 blend of the 00z/5 GFS/NAM MOS with the 
probability of precipitation modified by the sref probs. Wpc quantitative precipitation forecast 00z/5 quantitative precipitation forecast grids used. 


Am aware was much too high on probability of precipitation ydy during the day kttn southwest 
through phl/ilg/esn and missed the thunder coastal NJ/de. 


&& 


Long term /Friday through Wednesday/... 
Friday through saturday: dual low pressures will continue the gray 
and dreary pattern across the region in this timeframe. The first 
area of low pressure will likely be departing to the northeast off 
Cape Cod with the second low pressure system in the Carolinas. 
These low pressure systems will provide lift and moisture with 
onshore flow leading to additional periods of showers. The highest 
chances currently are likely to occur on Friday when the trailing 
low pressure systems located just to our southwest. Right now 
modeling is focusing the heaviest and steadiest showers across 
northern portions of the region on Friday. Quantitative precipitation forecast could reach half an 
inch by Friday night in northern parts of the region. With the 
excessive cloud cover in place went a little cooler in the days 
with highs than what met/mav guidance would suggest and warmer at 
night,highs will likely stay in the 50's for most of the region. 


There is some optimism that Saturday afternoon/evening could be 
drier than indicated in the various ensemble packages. However, an 
equal possibility is present that the second low will linger 
offshore through Saturday. The clouds and showers should keep low 
temperatures warmer at night and cooler in the day than what various 
guidance packages indicate. Temperatures will start a gradual 
warming trend on Saturday. 


Saturday night through Sunday night: a cold frontal boundary will 
likely be the ultimate kicker for the stubborn low pressure just 
offshore. However, timing remains uncertain at this point. The cold 
front will be a focus for yet additional scattered light showers late 
Saturday night and Sunday. A break between systems with some 
clearing is likely to occur before the next round of showers 
arrives. 


Monday through wednesday: on Monday high pressure will build 
northeast into the region. This will allow for a few dry days and a 
gradual warming trend through the first half of next week as a 
northwesterly flow gradually becomes southerly by Wednesday. The 
challenge in this period will be a warm front dividing a cooler 
more marine airmass and southerly flow sending more summerlike 
temperatures into our region. Right now the location and timing of 
this warm front early next week is still uncertain. However, it does 
look like the front makes it north of the region. This would 
potentially result in high temperatures into the 80's by Wednesday. 
For now, have tempered this change in modeling keeping some 
continuity given the uncertainty. Low pressure along the front will 
move toward our region on Wednesday. There is a potential for 
overlap of instability and over 30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, 
but it's to early to access the degree of any severe weather. 


&& 


Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/... 
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, 
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas. 


Through 12z...ceilings variable between 500 and 1500 feet with pockets 
of 2mi drizzle. IFR conds mainly vicinity kphl/kilg/kmiv/kacy. 
Northeast gusts under 15 knots. 


After 12z...ceilings generally improve to between 1500 and 3000 feet by 
midday and possibly to VFR ceilings during the afternoon. Any lingering 
drizzle early in the day should quit by 14z. Northeast wind gusty 
20 to possibly 25 knots i95 region eastward and less than 18 knots vicinity 
krdg and kabe. 


Tonight...VFR ceilings to start but conditions should degrade to MVFR 
or IFR in showers/drizzle sometime after 03z/6. Northeast wind... 
gusts under 15 knots. 


Outlook... 


Friday through saturday: frequent MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities 
with scattered showers. Easterly winds up to 10 knots with higher 
gusts up to 20 knots on Friday. 


Saturday night through Sunday night: mainly VFR with scattered 
showers. Southwest winds increasing with gusts around 20 knots 
Sunday afternoon. Winds shifting to northwest during the day Sunday. 


Monday: VFR, west to northwest winds around 10 knots with higher 
gusts. 


&& 


Marine... 
Small Craft Advisory continues on the Atlantic waters for occasional gusts 25 to 30 
knots and seas of 6 to 9 feet. Will add an Small Craft Advisory to lower Delaware Bay in the 
330 am forecast issuance where gusts to 25 knots will occur. 


Outlook... 


An Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through Friday afternoon. Seas will remain 
at or just over five feet through Saturday. Seas will decrease for 
the early part of next week. A period of easterly wind gusts around 
20 knots is likely Friday along with a period of northwesterly wind 
gusts around 20 knots on Sunday. 


&& 


Tides/coastal flooding... 
maximum Wednesday evening tides were within 1 inch of the minor 
tidal inundation flood threshold with surge values of 1 to 1.2 
feet along the New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic coasts. 


The persistent northeast flow will cause the tidal surge to be 
at least 1.0 to 1.5 feet for both of todays high tide cycles. 
And will necessitate another advisory issuance at 330 am. Those 
values along with the increasing astronomical tides as we approach 
friday's new moon will result in minor tidal flooding along the New 
Jersey and Delaware coasts at high tide, especially this Thursday 
evening. 


We have a morning and an evening high tide cycle advisory plkanned 
for Delaware. 


Minor tidal flooding is also likely to extend into the Friday night 
high tide cycle. 


Additionally, the day shift may be extending the cf advisory to the 
tidal Delaware River downstream from the Commodore Barry bridge and the 
extreme upper part of Delaware Bay (reedy point link) for the late Thursday 
evening high tide cycle. 


&& 


Phi watches/warnings/advisories... 
PA...none. 
New Jersey...none. 
Delaware...none. 
Maryland...none. 
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for anz450>455. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...drag/Gaines 
near term...drag/nierenberg 230a 
short term...drag 230a 
long term...Gaines 
aviation...drag/Gaines 230a 
marine...drag/Gaines 230a 
tides/coastal flooding...230a 



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