Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
810 PM MST Sat Oct 25 2014 


Synopsis...a cooling trend will occur through early week as a low 
pressure system moves north of the area. Afternoon high 
temperatures will be near seasonal averages Tuesday and 
Wednesday...warming to above normal by the end of the week as high 
pressure aloft builds back across the western states. 


&& 


Discussion...updated the forecast to cover a few stray showers that 
managed to develop late this afternoon and early this evening. Radar 
was still showing one or two of these showers northwest of Willcox 
as of late this evening. Most recent high resolution model solutions 
picked up on these isolated showers and showed them hanging around 
through at least midnight across parts of Cochise and Graham 
counties. Otherwise...forecast trends still looked on track as 
cooler temperatures return to the area Sunday and Monday after 
record or near record high temperatures yesterday and today. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 27/00z. 
A weak disturbance moving northeast across Southeast Arizona will 
bring a few to broken clouds mainly around 10k feet above ground level into tonight. 
The bulk of these clouds will move east of the area Sunday morning. 
Additional middle and upper level moisture will bring scattered to 
overcast clouds mainly above 12k feet above ground level Sunday. There is also a 
slight chance of -shra across the White Mountains NE of ksad Sunday. 
Surface wind will generally be less than 10 kts into Sunday morning. 
Surface wind Sunday afternoon will be southwesterly-northwesterly 12-18 kts. Aviation 
discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...there is a slight chance of showers across the White 
Mountains Sunday. Otherwise...dry conditions will prevail during the 
upcoming week. Daytime minimum relative humidities Sunday and Monday 
will generally range from 20-40 percent Sunday and Monday...then 
will fall into the middle teens to 20s toward the end of the week. 
Expect good overnight recoveries during the period. Some gusty west 
to northwest winds should occur Sunday and Monday during the 
afternoon hours as a low pressure trough moves north of the area. 
20-foot winds will then be light and terrain driven Tuesday. Expect 
some gusty east to southeast winds Wednesday into Friday. 


&& 


Previous discussion...flow aloft will shift to zonal over the next 24 
hours as an upper level trough slides through the intermountain west. 
Enough south to southwesterly middle level flow exists to keep some middle 
level moisture in place through Sunday evening. Don't see much in 
the way of measurable precipitation coming out of this...but can't rule out 
some weak cumulus development tomorrow. That being said...have 
continued the low end slight chance probability of precipitation in the White Mountains as 
best moisture exists there. Even this moisture will quickly be 
pushed eastward as the aforementioned trough slides east and Ushers 
in drier air to the region. 


By middle week shortwave ridging slides in which will result in temperatures 
climbing back up...though not nearly as warm as it has been the 
last couple of days. Also...Wednesday a weak easterly wind is 
prognosticated mainly east of Tucson. These conditions look to persist 
through the end of the week...with the tightest gradient Friday. 
Saturday looks to also have some potential for easterly 
winds...though winds will likely transition to southwesterly as 
another upper trough pushes through the area. 


&& 
Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Previous discussion...Meadows 
aviation/fire weather...Francis 


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