000 
fxus65 ktwc 210443 
afdtwc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
940 PM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 


Synopsis...an approaching storm system will bring widespread 
valley rain and significant mountain snows across southern Arizona 
into Saturday. The precipitation will taper off Saturday evening with 
mostly dry conditions lasting into Monday. Another storm system will 
impact the region later Monday through Wednesday with cool 
temperatures and a chance of showers. 


&& 


Discussion...areas of showers continue to push east northeast 
across Southeast Arizona this evening with the snow level, based on mountain 
observation sites, down around 6000 feet as of 9 PM. Its been 
interesting this evening watching showers increase in intensity when 
moving into the mountains thanks to orographics. 


Main event still to our west this evening with cold front pushing 
through Imperial and Riverside counties in southeast California as of this writing. 
Wind speeds will also be on the increase in advance of the cold 
front. The 00s San Diego sounding showed wind speeds up to 65 kts 
between 800mb and 700 mb. Some of this wind will be transported down 
to the surface with the shower activity as the cold front pushes east 
across the area. Wind advisories for most of the area during the 
overnight hours into Saturday morning. There is also a High Wind 
Warning for western Cochise County. Winter Storm Warning for the 
mountains above 5000 feet still looks good. The howling winds in the 
mountains combined with the falling snow will produce localized 
blizzard conditions during the overnight hours. Snow levels down as 
low as 4500 feet with passage of cold front. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 22/04z. 
Numerous rain Showers/Mountain shsn will continue overnight into Saturday 
morning with isolated thunderstorms and rain possible mainly between 21/06z and 21/12z. 
Expect widespread MVFR conditions and occasional IFR conditions with 
mountains mostly obscured through Saturday morning then conditions 
improving from the west. Southwest surface wind increasing to 15-35 
kts with gusts of 30-50 kts then becoming westerly late tonight. 
Surface wind diminishing somewhat after 12z Saturday but still gusty. 
Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...a strong storm system will move across the area 
through Saturday morning with widespread valley rains, significant 
mountain snows and strong winds. Winds and precipitation will taper 
off west to east Saturday with mostly dry conditions Saturday night 
into early Monday. Another series of storms will impact the area 
Monday night through Wednesday with cool temps and occasional 
breezes but they will not expected to be significant precipitation 
producers. Dry and warmer conditions late next week into the 
following weekend. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories... 
Winter Storm Warning until noon MST Saturday for azz510-515. 


Wind Advisory until 8 am MST Saturday for azz501-502-504>506. 


High Wind Warning until noon MST Saturday for azz507. 


Wind Advisory until noon MST Saturday for azz503>508. 


&& 



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