Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
857 PM MST Thursday Jul 28 2016 

Synopsis...a monsoon pattern will remain in place through at least 
the middle of next week. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms 
will be possible. Temperatures will remain warm and near to above 
normal readings are likely. 


Discussion...water vapor imagery and 29/00z upper-air plots show a 
ridge centered over southern Nevada and Utah with east to northeast 
flow aloft, generally from around 775mb up to around 275mb. A swath 
of dry mid to upper level air can be seen over southern parts of New 
Mexico and extreme Southeast Arizona, but this area continues to 
slip to the south. Infrared satellite imagery and radar data shows 
lingering activity mostly over northern parts of the state from 
around the Wickenburg area, northward toward Winslow. Closer to 
home, only a couple of very weak cells noted near the international 
border from south of Sierra Vista to near Arivaca. These showers 
will continue to move to the west, but should dissipate within the 
next hour or less. 

Much farther to the south, a storm complex resides over central and 
southern Sonora, Mexico with cloud tops as of 03z of minus 80-84 
degs c. This complex should continue to move to the west or west 
northwest overnight and could push some outflows our direction. That 
said, based on the latest satellite and radar trends will trim pops 
downward for most areas through the remainder of this evening, but 
then show a slight increase after midnight based on the potential 
for outflows to perhaps trigger isolated activity near the border 
with Mexico overnight. 

As of 03z (8 PM mst), temperatures ranged from the lower to mid 80s 
along the international border, to the mid to upper 90s for areas 
farther north. The Tucson International Airport reported a temp of 
99 degs after reaching an afternoon high temperature of 105 degs, 
which was 7 degs above normal for this date. These current readings 
seem to be on track with the expected/inherited overnight low temps, 
but will continue to monitor and will make changes if needed. 

Please see the previous discussion below for details beyond tonight. 


Aviation...valid through 30/06z. 
VFR conditions throughout Friday, except for possible MVFR in/around 
showers and thunderstorms. Winds generally 10 kts or less except 
brief gusts to 45 mph possible with stronger thunderstorms and rain. Aviation 
discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


Fire weather...generally isolated showers or thunderstorms through 
the remainder of this evening and into the overnight hours, mainly 
along the border with Mexico. Isolated to scattered showers and 
thunderstorms again Friday afternoon and evening. However, we are 
unstable enough that any storms that develop have the potential for 
very strong outflow winds. Beyond that, increasing moisture Saturday 
Onward will result in an increase in the amount of convection across 
the region along with higher humidity levels with dewpoints peaking 
around 70 at times. The increased moisture will also result in lower 
afternoon high temperatures. Significant winds are not expected 
except in the vicinity of thunderstorms. 


Previous discussion...the threat of daily showers and thunderstorms is 
expected to continue for the next several days. Latest model 
predictions point to a more significant threat of storms Friday 
through the weekend as the mid-level ridge shifts a bit to the east. 
This will allow for a tinge more east to southeast flow and an 
increase in low-level moisture. No significant changes to this 
pattern are anticipated into mid next week. Temperatures will remain 
at or above normal throughout. 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 



previous discussion...cantin 
aviation/fire weather...cerniglia 

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