Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
120 PM MST Monday Jul 27 2015 


Synopsis...the weather pattern is becoming more favorable for an 
upswing in thunderstorm activity this week as deeper moisture 
returns. Otherwise...temperatures will be at near normal levels 
through the upcoming weekend. 


&& 


Discussion...high cloudiness early this morning had thinned and 
dissipated across most of the area. This has resulted in enough 
surface heating to help trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in 
the mountains so far today. Expect the areal coverage of 
thunderstorms to be more today compared to the past 2 days...with 
the best chance of rain remaining east and south of Tucson. Latest 
models continued to support the idea of an increase in thunderstorm 
activity this week as a ridge of high pressure aloft amplifies and 
becomes centered near The Four Corners region. This will result in a 
deep easterly to southeasterly steering flow with moistre working 
back into the region. Daytime temperatures will remain near or 
slightly above normal readings. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 29/00z. 
Scattered to occasionally broken clouds 8-12k feet above ground level with isolated-scattered rain showers/thunderstorms and rain 
mainly south and east of ktus including kdug/kols areas and perhaps 
isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain in the White Mountains NE of ksad through about 
28/03z. More widespread rain showers/thunderstorms and rain expected Tuesday farther north and 
west including ktus. Brief MVFR conditions and vrb wind gusts to 35 
kts possible in and around the stronger thunderstorms and rain. Outside of storm 
influence...surface winds will be less than 12 kts with some higher 
gusts from from the west and northwest this afternoon...especially 
near ksad. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...moisture is on the increase under the influence of 
deeper southerly flow. The result will be an increase in showers and 
thunderstorms beginning this afternoon...with convection mainly near 
the international border and in the White Mountains. Tuesday through 
Friday...more widespread convective activity will occur over all 
southeastern Arizona zones. Strong outflows near storms could 
produce wind gusts to 40 miles per hour. Otherwise...20-ft winds will generally 
be terrain driven and less than 15 miles per hour with some afternoon gustiness 
from the west or northwest due to daytime heating. Winds will 
develop more of an easterly component beginning Thursday. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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Meyer/French 



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