000 
fxus65 ktwc 040427 
afdtwc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
926 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016 


Synopsis...a dry forecast is in place through Tuesday before 
another storm system moves through the region from baja Mexico late 
Tuesday into Wednesday which will result in a slight chance of 
precipitation mainly over the White Mountains Tuesday night and 
Wednesday. 


&& 


Discussion...skies continued to clear across far Southeast Arizona 
late this evening as the upper low tracks farther east. Otherwise, 
the current forecast was still in good shape so no updates 
necessary. Please refer to the previous discussion for more details. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 05/06z. 
Clearing skies later tonight. Clear skies or a few clouds around 6k- 
10k ft above ground level will prevail east and south of ktus Sunday. Locally gusty 
east surface wind to 15 kts southeast of ktus this evening. Surface 
wind variable in direction less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not 
updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...there is a slight chance of snow showers across the 
White Mountains Tuesday night and Wednesday. Otherwise, dry 
conditions will prevail into next Saturday. Some gusty southwest 
winds may occur Tuesday, and gusty east winds may occur Thursday and 
Friday. 20-foot winds will mainly be less than 15 mph at other times. 


&& 


Previous discussion...water vapor imagery shows the upper low spinning 
over southern Sonora Mexico, with moisture and associated showers 
streaming northward into southern New Mexico. Visible and infrared 
satellite imagery shows cloudiness mainly along the international 
border into New Mexico as well as areas south into Sonora and over a 
large part of Chihuahua Mexico and West Texas. Radar mosaic from 
around the region shows scattered showers occurring over extreme 
southwest and south central New Mexico, with the activity 
moving north. 


Based on the latest satellite and radar trends, I have a dry 
forecast in place for this evening and through the overnight hours. 
However, will continue to see cloudiness along the borders with 
Mexico and New Mexico into the evening hours. These clouds will 
slowly move away from Southeast Arizona Sunday. 


As the aforementioned closed low continues to move southeast, deeper 
into Mexico, a dry northwest flow aloft will develop over the Desert 
Southwest into Monday with zonal flow Monday night into Tuesday. A 
system to our north will brush by northern Arizona late Tuesday 
through midday Wednesday, but a weak system off baja will move 
across southern Arizona and northern Sonora, resulting in a slight 
chance of showers over the White Mountains during that time. 


Dry weather will once again return during the latter part of the 
week and into the weekend as a ridge builds over the eastern Pacific 
and a dry northwest flow aloft develops. 


For Tucson, high temperatures will hover within a degree or two 
either side of normal Sunday through Thursday, then 3 to 5 degs 
above normal for Friday and Saturday. Lows also within a degree or 
two of normal throughout the forecast period. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 






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