Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
905 am MST Wednesday Oct 1 2014 

Synopsis...dry and stable conditions are expected into the 
weekend with seasonable temperatures. 


Discussion...a deep middle/upper level trough will progress across 
the western states over the next 24 hours. There will be little in 
the way of influence to Arizona weather other than a reinforcement 
of dry air in the persistent northwest flow aloft associated with 
the back side of the trough. At the surface...the pressure 
gradient is expected to shift allowing for a shift to northerly 
winds behind the trough for much of Thursday. By Friday winds will 
transition back to more typical terrain driven circulations. 

High pressure is expected to build both aloft and at the surface 
over Arizona this weekend into next week. This will continue the 
dry trend and will allow for gradual warming of temperatures. 


Aviation...valid through 02/18z. 
Expect clear skies through tonight. Surface winds will increase this 
afternoon...ranging from 10-15 kts with occasional gusts to around 
20 kts mainly east of ktus...and diminishing after sunset to less 
than 10 kts through the night. Aviation discussion not updated for 
taf amendments. 


Fire weather...dry conditions will prevail through early next week. 
Daytime minimum relative humidity will remain low through the week 
with a dry airmass in place. However...good overnight relative humidity recoveries 
are expected. A few westerly breezes are expected today mainly east 
of Tucson...otherwise light winds into early next week with perhaps 
just a few easterly breezes on Friday. 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories... 


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