Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
930 am MST Sat Apr 19 2014 


Synopsis...a low pressure system just east of Rocky Point Mexico 
this morning will move across the area today into early Sunday. This 
system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. 
After seasonal temperatures today...a strong warming trend will 
begin Sunday and continue into the first part of the new work week. 


&& 


Discussion...ran out a quick up to the forecast around 8 am to 
increase probability of precipitation and made some modifications to the quantitative precipitation forecast values for 
today. Radar showed scattered showers/isolated thunder from Tucson 
west...which is closer to the upper low..with isolated coverage 
across eastern zones. Expected areal coverage east to increase this 
afternoon. All of this is associated with an upper low that was 
centered just east of Rocky Point as of 9 am. Precipitable water values 
were in 0.65"-0.80" range which is 2 Standard deviations above 
normal for April. So there is the threat for brief localized 
moderate rainers with strongest storms along with wind gusts up to 
35-40 miles per hour. Highs today will be tricky depending on if an area 
gets rain versus not. The official forecast highs for today may be a 
degree or two too warm but for now will leave them as is. 


Upper low to pull out of the area late tonight with showers ending 
from west to east. However...there will be a few lingering showers 
near Arizona/nm border around sunrise. 


Residual moisture on Easter Sunday combined with daytime heating 
will result in a slight chance of mainly mountain showers. 


&& 


Aviation...an upper level low just east of Rocky Point Mexico will 
move across southern Arizona/northern Sonora mx today into tonight. This system 
will produce scattered -shra/isolated -trsa with cloud decks mainly above 
10kft above ground level. Some of the strongest storms may produce wind gusts up to 
35 kts and lclzd near MVFR conds. Away from storms...expect normal 
diurnal wind patterns with speeds mostly less than 10 kts. 
Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...an upper level low just east of Rocky Point Mexico 
will move across southern Arizona today through early Sunday. Enough 
moisture is present with this system for scattered showers with 
isolated thunderstorms...with the best threat for the mountains. 
Rainfall amounts are expected to be light for most valley and desert 
locations. Mountain precipitation generally around a quarter to 
perhaps a third of an inch. The main concern will be the potential 
for gusty and erratic winds associated with the showers and 
thunderstorms. A few showers could linger near the New Mexico border 
on Sunday with a return to dry conditions early next week. 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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