Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
930 am MST Thursday Mar 5 2015 

Synopsis...generally dry conditions with a warming trend will occur 
into early next week. Breezy to windy conditions will also happen 
Friday. A weakening low pressure system may bring a few showers to 
the higher terrain Saturday afternoon and evening. 


Discussion...clear skies prevail across Southeast Arizona at this time. Winds 
were nearly calm from Tucson westward into the western deserts. However... 
winds were Ely/southeasterly at 10-15 miles per hour across eastern sections. Dewpoints 
valid 16z ranged from the middle 20s-middle 30s...and these temperatures were 
nearly 5-10 degrees f lower versus 24 hours ago. 05/12z ktwc sounding 
total precipitation water value was 0.25 inch...down nearly one quarter of 
an inch versus 24 hours ago. The profile exhibited warming of 2-5 
degrees c throughout much of the column versus 24 hours ago. The 
sounding depicted light Ely flow from the surface to around 
400 mb...and light to moderate westerly flow above 400 mb. 05/12z upper 
air plots depicted trough axis that extended from the upper 
Mississippi River valley southwestward into far West Texas...then continued 
westward to west of northern Baja California California. A ridge axis was also off the 
West Coast adjacent 130w. 

A few clouds may occur near the New Mexico border today. Otherwise... 
abundant sunshine will prevail with high temperatures generally 2-5 degrees f 
warmer versus Wednesday. Gusty Ely/southeasterly winds should be limited today to 
eastern sections...then breezy to windy conditions across much of Southeast Arizona 
Friday in response to a developing low pressure system SW of the area. 

There are no updates planned at this time. Please refer to the 
additional sections for further detail. 


Aviation...valid through 06/18z. 
Expect clear skies into Friday morning except for a few clouds at 
4-8k feet above ground level near the New Mexico border. Surface wind through tonight 
will generally be Ely/southeasterly at 8-15 kts. Stronger surface wind will 
then occur Friday...with Ely/southeasterly wind at 10-20 kts with gusts to 
around 30 kts. The strongest wind Friday should occur in the 
vicinity of ktus. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


Fire weather...expect dry conditions across much of Southeast 
Arizona into early next week. The exception will occur Saturday 
afternoon and evening...when a few showers may prevail across the 
higher terrain east of Tucson. A low pressure system south of the 
area will contribute to gusty east to southeast winds today... 
especially east of Tucson. 20-foot winds for most of the area Friday 
will be east to southeast at 10-20 miles per hour with stronger gusts. These 
easterly winds will diminish Saturday followed by normal diurnal 
wind trends early next week. 


Previous discussion /issued at 145 am MST/... 
models indicate that the tail end of the trough axis will linger 
across extreme northern Mexico with a closed low getting pinched off 
across northern Baja California and the adjacent Pacific waters today. 
Meanwhile...a ridge will reside over northern California. From 
Friday through Saturday night this low over Baja California will lift across 
northern Mexico and southern Arizona and eventually become an open 
wave that will extend from northern New Mexico through southeastern 
Arizona. Some slight differences among the models with regard to the 
position of this weak system...but the bottom line is that very 
little moisture will be associated with this system...resulting in 
just an increase in cloudiness during that time. 

For Sunday...a dry north to northwest flow aloft will result in 
continued dry conditions. 

For Sunday night into Monday...a weak trough will skirt across The 
Four Corners and eastern Arizona...but any limited moisture with 
this system will remain to the east. 

For Monday night into Tuesday...this trough will progress to the 
east...while high pressure will begin to nose in from the west 

For Tuesday night into Wednesday...the ridge will slide to the 
southeast with zonal flow allowing some increase in mostly high 
cloudiness from the west. 

For Tucson...highs generally 4 to 6 degrees below normal today...then 2 
to 5 degrees above normal Friday through the weekend and 8 to 10 degrees 
above normal Monday through Wednesday. Low temperatures near normal Friday 
morning...then 4 to 6 degrees above normal thereafter...with the 
warmest mornings occurring Tuesday and Wednesday. 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 



Visit US on at weather.Gov/Tucson 

previous discussion...mollere 

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