Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
844 PM MST Tuesday Oct 21 2014 


Synopsis...strong high pressure will bring dry conditions the 
second half of the week along with much warmer temperatures. Near 
record high temperatures are possible in some locations Thursday 
into Saturday. 


&& 


Discussion...infrared satellite showing a narrow band of middle and high- 
level clouds tracking east across the state early this evening. We 
continue to dry out around the region with the 22/00z twc radiosonde observation 
indicating a precipitable water decrease of 0.12 inches over the last 24 hours. 
Additionally...surface dewpoints are running 1 to 4 degrees f lower 
than this time last night...at least across the southern parts of 
our County Warning Area. Grid elements all looked on track so no updates planned 
this evening. 


The aforementioned drying trend will continue tomorrow as we head 
into a period of quiescent weather thanks to an amplifying upper 
level ridge building into the southwestern Continental U.S.. still...looks to 
be enough lingering moisture tomorrow afternoon to build up some 
spotty cumulus focused near the higher terrain...but anticipating dry 
conditions area-wide. 


Temperatures will begin an upward climb tomorrow through Saturday 
..possibly approaching near record levels. Falling heights and 
thicknesses will then bring temperatures back to near-normal values 
early next week. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 23/06z. 
Dry conditions area-wide late tonight and Wednesday. Few-scattered clouds 
at 6-10k feet above ground level...mainly east and south of ktus through 22/04z...with 
scattered clouds at or above 20k feet above ground level area-wide. Surface wind generally less 
than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...dry conditions will prevail Wednesday into next 
week. 20-foot winds will generally be terrain driven and less than 
15 miles per hour this week. An increase in winds is then expected this weekend 
as a trough of low pressure passes to our north. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$ 


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Discussion...carlaw/lader 
aviation/fire weather...Zell 














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