Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
222 PM MST Wednesday Jul 30 2014 

Synopsis...thunderstorms will be confined mainly to the south and 
southeast of Tucson today. Increasing chances of thunderstorms will 
start on Thursday followed by scattered mainly afternoon and evening 
thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Expect hotter daytime a 
moderation in high temperatures to prevail this weekend. 


Discussion...remnants of a thunderstorm complex over Sonora Mexico 
from last night was helping trigger isolated showers and 
thunderstorms across Santa Cruz and Cochise counties early this 
afternoon. The steering flow remained rather light so most of the 
thunderstorms showed very little movement. The main threat from 
these storms will be locally heavy downpours and some gusty winds. 
Otherwise...not expecting the shower and thunderstorm activity to 
last very long past sunset this evening. Models indicated that 
slightly more thunderstorm activity can be expected tomorrow before 
the steering flow becomes more southerly and deeper moisture returns 
to the area. This moisture and flow pattern should be more 
supportive of thunderstorm activity which will increase on Friday... 
followed by much better rain chances on Saturday. Thereafter... 
medium range models depicted a drier southwesterly flow developing 
early next week as a trough of low pressure approaches the West 
Coast. This should lead to another drying trend by the middle of 
next week. Expect similar high temperatures Thursday as 
today...followed by a gradual cooling trend Friday into Sunday. A 
warming trend will be on tap by the middle of next week as a drier 
weather regime sets up. 


Aviation...valid through 31/18z. 
Isolated -tsra/-shra will be limited to mainly near the mountains 
and near the international border south-to-southeast of ktus this 
evening. Otherwise...mostly clear skies will prevail west 
of ktus through early Thursday morning. From ktus vicinity eastward 
expect a few to broken cumuloform clouds at 8-12k feet above ground level this 
evening...and cloud bases mainly above 15k feet above ground level at other times. 
Surface wind will be mostly less than 10 kts into early Thursday. 
Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


Fire weather...expect thunderstorms to be limited mostly to locales 
south-to-southeast of Tucson this evening. Thereafter...scattered 
mostly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will return starting 
Thursday and continue into this weekend as deeper moisture moves 
into the area. Otherwise...normal diurnal wind trends will occur 
with occasional gusts during the afternoon hours due to daytime 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 



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