Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
300 am MST Sat Apr 30 2016 


Synopsis...an approaching storm system will bring another round 
of gusty winds this afternoon. It will also bring a chance of 
showers and maybe a few thunderstorms...mainly to areas north of 
Tucson this afternoon through Sunday. A high pressure ridge will 
then provide dry conditions with a strong warming trend much of next 
week. Another storm system will bring windy conditions 
Friday...along with cooler temperatures and a few showers next 
weekend. 


&& 


Discussion...the mean trough position / large scale weakness in 
the flow over the west will see another impulse (currently carving 
down the back side) bottom out through Arizona later today and 
tonight. Gusty winds today with the best winds probably south and 
east of Tucson. We'll need to keep an eye out for areas of 
dust...especially along I-10 east of Tucson in Cochise County. 


This impulse is following a rather dry trajectory for most of our 
area...but areas mainly north and northeast of Tucson should see a 
few showers this afternoon into Sunday. We'll probably be unstable 
enough for a few lightning strikes. The most favorable period for 
any showers around the greater Tucson area will be Sunday morning. 


The ridge will take hold again early in the new week...with some 
residual moisture north of the area Monday even as the warming trend 
kicks in. We'll dry out and jump into the upper 80s to middle 90s 
across most of the area by Wednesday. 


The next system lining up for the end of next week will have a 
wetter trajectory and may slow down a bit as it loses most if not 
all of it's higher latitude support. Models are probably under doing 
the available moisture fields for our area (as they often do with 
similar systems). There is decent agreement between models as well 
as good ensemble mean / operational trends and normalized Standard 
deviation trends. With this in mind we are leaning a little further 
forward with pop trends at day 7 than we might otherwise. Emphasis 
on next Friday night and Saturday. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 01/12z. 
Sky clear early this morning with few-scattered clouds at 8-12k feet above ground level by late 
morning/early afternoon. There a slight chance of -shra/-tsra north 
to northeast of ktus through the forecast period. Terrain driven surface 
wind at less than 10 kts will increase during the middle to late 
morning hours...with southerly/southwesterly surface wind at 15-25 kts and gusts to 
30-35 kts this afternoon. Strongest wind will be near the 
international border...including the kdug/kols/kalk/kfhu terminals. 
Speeds will diminish late in the evening to mainly less than 10 kts 
into early Sunday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for taf 
amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...a storm system will move across the state this 
weekend...resulting in a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms 
mainly north/northeast of Tucson and especially across the White 
Mountains through Monday morning. Dry conditions will return 
thereafter along with a warming trend into Thursday of next week. 
Another storm system is expected to impact the region next weekend. 


Southwesterly winds will become gusty this afternoon...with 20 feet 
winds of 15-20 miles per hour and gusts 30-35 miles per hour fairly common. Areas near the 
international border will likely be a bit stronger at times through 
the late afternoon hours. Daytime minimum relative humidity will 
generally range from 12 to 17 percent across valley locations east of 
Tucson. No headlines have been issued at the current time...although 
brief and spotty critical fire weather conditions may occur this 
afternoon in the valleys of southern Cochise County. 


Less wind is expected Monday through Wednesday...although some 
easterly breezes are possible Monday and Tuesday morning. Expect an 
increase in southwest winds late next week as another storm system 
approaches the region. 




&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


$$ 


&& 


Meyer/French 


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