Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
210 am MST Friday Mar 27 2015 


Synopsis...strengthening high pressure aloft will continue to 
result in dry conditions and above normal daytime temperatures 
through the upcoming weekend...with near record highs for some 
locations. 


&& 


Discussion...clear skies across Southeast Arizona this morning as a 
strong and expansive ridge of high pressure is currently located 
across California. With strong subsidence and well above normal 
height and thickness values...even warmer temperatures will be in 
store for Southeast Arizona the next few days. Tucson should hit the 
90 degree mark for the first time of the year today. The ridge will 
crest across Southeast Arizona this weekend with the warmest 
temperatures expected on Saturday when many record highs will be in 
jeopardy. Please see climate section below for additional 
information. 


Once the ridge shifts to the east...a weak and moisture starved 
trough will move through Monday. There will be just enough middle level 
moisture to justify a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for 
the mountains from Tucson eastward. Thereafter...shortwave ridging 
for Tuesday and then more zonal flow for the middle of next week. 
Temperatures will cool off slightly next week but still remain well 
above normal. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 28/12z. 
Strong high pressure aloft will provide clear skies and surface wind 
generally less than 10 kts into Saturday morning. Ktus may experience 
southeasterly surface wind with gusts to near 15 kts this morning. Aviation 
discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...there is a slight chance of showers and 
thunderstorms mainly near the eastern mountains Monday and Monday 
night. Otherwise...dry conditions will prevail into the middle of 
next week. Normal diurnal wind trends will occur through Monday... 
with occasional gusts during the afternoon hours due to daytime 
heating. Daytime minimum relative humidities through Sunday will be 
in the single digits to lower teens with fair to good nighttime 
recoveries. 


&& 


Climate...record or near record high temperatures are possible this 
upcoming weekend...especially on the 28th. Here are the record highs 
for March 28th and 29th. 


Location March 28th March 29th 
Tucson intnl Airport 91 in 1943 91 in 1943 
Ajo 97 in 1988 93 in 1943 
Picacho Peak 92 in 1988 93 in 2004 
Nogales 84 in 1986 85 in 1967 
Safford 91 in 1988 89 in 1953 
Sierra Vista 82 in 1967 83 in 2012 
Tombstone 91 in 1917 86 in 1943 
Willcox 89 in 1916 88 in 1916 
Douglas 85 in 2012 85 in 2012 


The historical average first 90 degree date in Tucson is April 9th. 
However since 2000 the average first date is March 29th. So based on 
recent history...the forecast for the first 90 degree date for 
Tucson is right on time. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


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