Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
938 PM MST Tuesday Jun 30 2015 


Synopsis...expect scattered mainly afternoon and evening 
thunderstorms into early next week. Storms this evening will 
continue to generate strong gusty winds...hail and heavy rain. 
Daytime temperatures will remain close to seasonal normals into this 
Holiday weekend. 


&& 


Discussion...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 381 continues for Pinal and 
Pima counties through midnight this evening. 


Strongest cells currently on radar are near Green Valley and are 
straddling the Pima/Santa Cruz County line. All of the activity is 
moving rapidly to the west at 30 to 35 miles per hour. This area continues 
under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 945 PM MST. Showers that 
are heading west over the tohono o'odham nation have been decreasing 
in intensity during the past half hour or so. 


Issued an Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory that remains in 
effect until 1130 PM MST this evening. The areas included in the 
advisory cover central and southeastern Pima County...excluding the 
Tucson metropolitan...all of Santa Cruz County and into extreme southwest 
Cochise County. Radar estimates show widespread quarter to half inch 
amounts...with isolated amounts over 1 inch...especially from Amado 
to Madera Canyon to north of Sonoita. In addition...heavy amounts 
are also occurring over the T.O. Nation near Kitt Peak. 


Inherited pop forecast seems reasonable with higher probability of precipitation to the west 
through the overnight hours...and with rain chances decreasing as 
well throughout the night. That said...do not plan on any changes to 
the pop forecast at this time. 


Temperatures...especially short term hourly temperature grids need some 
work...since areas that received rainfall have cooled significantly. 
Will tweak these hourly temperature grids to reflect these recent trends. 


For information regarding the forecast beyond tonight...please refer to the 
previous discussion below. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 02/06z. 
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms and rain/rain showers this evening...then isolated to scattered after 
midnight. Brief wind gusts of 4o-50 kts will be possible with the 
strongest storms...mainly before midnight. Cloud decks will 
generally be at or above 10k feet above ground level with a few locations between 4- 
7k feet...especially near thunderstorms and rain. Surface wind will be less than 12 kts 
outside of any thunderstorms and rain...with brief MVFR conditions directly associated 
with storms. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will 
occur across Southeast Arizona through this evening...then weaken 
after midnight. Adequate moisture and a favorable flow pattern will 
continue to provide a chance of mainly afternoon and evening 
thunderstorms into the upcoming Holiday weekend with temperatures 
within a few degrees of normal. 


&& 


Previous discussion...after another round of deep propagation into 
western deserts overnight...the orientation of large scale flow 
still favors solid convection. However the wake of the easterly 
impulse should leave eastern areas...such as Cochise County...under 
some middle level subsidence Wednesday. 


Friday through the weekend will see the reorientation of the ridge 
axis from Chihuahua through eastern border areas and then into Utah. 
A long southerly fetch instead of easterly. These patterns tend to 
emphasize heavier rainfall as well as more widespread convective 
organization immediately upstream in Sonora. A busy bumpy monsoon. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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Current discussion...mollere 
previous discussion...Meyer/lader 






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