Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
857 PM MST sun Nov 29 2015 

Synopsis...expect freezing mornings and mild afternoons into 
Tuesday. Otherwise...dry conditions will prevail through Friday 
followed by perhaps a few showers mainly across the White Mountains 


Discussion...forecast for the remainder of tonight looks good...but 
did make some adjustments to temperature and dewpoints in the short term to 
account for the most recent trends in temperatures. As a result... 
updated the 'point forecast matrix' product (pfmtwc). Otherwise... 
the freeze warning is on track for tonight. Freeze watches also in 
effect for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings as well (see watch/warning 
and advisory section below). 

For details regarding the forecast beyond tonight...please refer to 
the previous discussion below. 


Aviation...valid through 31/06z. 
VFR with only patchy cirrus level clouds at times. Surface wind will 
remain less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for taf 


Fire weather...dry conditions will prevail through Friday followed 
by a few showers across the White Mountains Saturday. Expect 
occasionally gusty winds during the afternoon hours through midweek. 
Somewhat stronger east winds may then occur Thursday. 


Previous discussion...cold temperatures across the area this morning 
with early morning lows about 8 to 10 degrees below average. Tucson 
international hit 32 for the first time since January 4th. The 
potential of the airmass in place as well as some additional weak 
cold air advection is hinting at colder temperatures tonight and 
possibly Monday night and Tuesday night as well. Some colder 
locations in mainly Cochise County may approach record lows in the 
middle to upper teens. The only thing we have to mitigate these 
potentials is some patchy high cloud from time to time...mainly 
Monday night into Tuesday morning. So the pattern may end up being 
coldest tonight...not as cold Monday night...then colder again 
Tuesday night (clearer Tuesday night and valleys will still not 
have responded to the middle level warming underway by then). 

The colder locations (mainly east and south of tucson) have already 
seen multiple freeze and hard freezes already...and do not require 
repeated issuances of headlines for cold temperatures (for the past 10 years Douglas has averaged about 75 freezes 
per year, while Tucson has averaged about 10 or 12 per year). 
However...the freeze watch for eastern and central Pima...the tohono 
o'odham nation...and south central to southeast Pinal counties has 
been converted to a freeze warning for tonight. We've also issued a 
freeze watch for Monday and and Tuesday night for the same locations. 

A shortwave ridge will try to phase across the area as the strong 
low lifts into the northern and Central Plains Monday night...but as 
mentioned above...valley locations will still be prone to the cold 
temperatures as the associated middle level warming works down the 
temperature column (assisted by downslope flow starting Wednesday 

A higher amplitude ridge will work in from the west Thursday with 
temperatures back near or a little above average to end the week. 
Another trough to end the week...but not much moisture and dynamics 
this far south. For our area it will mean gusty winds Friday and 
cooler temperatures again Saturday. A stronger ridge moves in at the 
start of next week with the storm track north of our area. 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories... 
freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am MST Monday for azz502-504>506. 

Freeze watch Monday night into Tuesday morning and Tuesday 
night into Wednesday morning for azz502-504>506. 



Current discussion...mollere 
previous discussion...Meyer/rasmussen 

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