Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
222 am MST Sat Nov 1 2014 


Synopsis...expect gusty winds at times this weekend followed by 
much cooler temperatures early next week. There is also a chance of 
showers especially east of Tucson Sunday afternoon. The coldest low 
temperatures will occur Monday night into Tuesday morning. 


&& 


Discussion...a low pressure system entering the West Coast early 
this morning will bring gusty southwest to west winds today. Wind 
speeds should remain below advisory criteria but strong and gusty 
enough to be noteworthy. Models track this system into the 
intermountain west today with moisture advecting into the state. Low 
level moisture was already on the increase as evident in surface 
dewpoints in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees along with low clouds 
in western Arizona and southeast California. Expect moisture to 
deepen with time and eventually lead to increasing chances of 
showers on Sunday. Will likely see a few light showers today...but 
the best chances will be on Sunday as a secondary shortwave passes 
through northern Arizona. Winds will also be rather strong and gusty 
on Sunday as well. Thereafter...models track the low pressure system 
east of the region with much colder air filtering in behind it on 
Monday. Lighter wind and less cloudiness will result in the coldest 
low temperatures Monday night and Tuesday morning. High pressure 
aloft was prognosticated to build back over the region for a gradual 
warming trend by the end of the week. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 02/16z. 
Scattered-broken clouds at 5-8k feet above ground level overspreading the area from west to 
east this morning...persisting through Sunday morning. There will be 
a slight chance of -shra area-wide today/tonight...with a slight 
chance of -shra west of ktus Sunday...and a chance of -shra east of 
ktus on Sunday. Southeasterly surface wind at 5-15 kts through 01/16z...then 
between 01/17z and 02/03z southerly/southwesterly surface wind at 14-20 kts with 
gusts of 25-30 kts. Slowly diminishing surface wind after 02/03z and 
surface wind generally less than 10 kts after 02/07z. Aviation 
discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...there will be a slight chance of showers across 
Southeast Arizona today and tonight. Expect gusty south to southwest 
winds today and then southwest to west winds on Sunday as a low 
pressure system moves north of the area. The chance of showers will 
continue on Sunday...especially east of Tucson. Significantly cooler 
temperatures will occur behind this system Sunday through Wednesday 
of next week. Warmer readings are then expected late next week as 
high pressure aloft builds back in across the southwestern United 
States. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Visit US on facebook...twitter...youtube...and at weather.Gov/Tucson 



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations
Back to forecast page
Non-Expanded Version (with abbreviations)

Units: English | Metric

Find the Weather for any City, State or Zipcode, or Country:

U.S. State List | Severe Weather | Tropical Storms | Ski Conditions
United States | Canada | Central America | South America | Asia | Europe | Australia | Africa | Islands

Weather Underground Copyright© 2014
Weather Underground, Inc.

Questions or Comments? Contact Us