Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
300 am MST Sat Aug 30 2014 


Synopsis...mostly clear...hot and dry conditions will continue 
through the Holiday weekend. Then...some moisture will sneak into 
areas near the international border for a slight chance of 
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. The moisture is expected to 
become more pronounced late in the week with an increase in shower 
and thunderstorm activity. 


&& 


Discussion...dry west-northwest flow aloft over the area this weekend as 
August comes to a close. It was hotter in spots on Friday versus 
forecast especially out in western Pima. Models suggesting a degree 
or two warmer today thus have made some slight adjustments up in the 
weekend highs. 


Remaining warm to hot Labor Day and Tuesday with upper ridge parked 
over the area. During these two days...moisture and afternoon 
thunderstorm activity will be slowly pushing north across Sonora mx. 


As the upper high slides east Wednesday and Thursday...southerly 
flow will increase across the area...thus allowing moisture to 
return to the area. Models are at odds on depth of this moisture 
increase but should be enough to support slight chance of afternoon 
and evening storms both days. A possible tropical storm near the 
Mexican coast and close to southern tip of Baja California may Friday and Saturday 
may bring an additional boost in moisture values from the south. 
Went with near climatology probability of precipitation for these two days along with cooler 
daytime temperatures...somewhere near normal for early September. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 31/12z. 
Expect a few to scattered clouds with bases around 8-12k feet above ground level 
through Sunday morning. The bulk of these clouds will be east of 
ktus. Surface winds will be mainly less than 10 kts into early 
Sunday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...dry conditions will prevail through Monday. There is 
a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly near the international 
border south to southeast of Tucson Tuesday. Thereafter... 
thunderstorm chances will gradually increase by the end of the 
upcoming week as moisture increases across the area. Expect light 
terrain driven winds into early next week. Gusty outflows associated 
with thunderstorms will then occur during the latter part of next 
week. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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