000 
fxus65 ktwc 291017 
afdtwc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
317 am MST Thu Jun 29 2017 


Synopsis...temperatures will continue a little above average into 
next week. Dry conditions will also occur into the weekend. A 
modest moisture increase should bring a few thunderstorms back 
into the area next week, especially south and east of Tucson. 


&& 


Discussion...with high pressure south of our area, the resulting 
westerly flow will not be conducive to any significant moisture 
increase through at least Saturday. Meanwhile we'll continue along 
with above average temperatures and nothing to help the wildfire 
situation. 


As a modest trough carves into the larger scale mean ridge 
position over western states, we should see a shortwave response 
immediately downstream that will begin to add a southerly 
component to our flow late Saturday and Sunday. That will mean 
increasing storm chances for Chihuahua and western New Mexico 
with eastern and southern portions of our area starting to respond 
as well. So a better, but still modest chance of thunderstorms 
Sunday and Monday. 


With the higher latitude impulse east of our area Tuesday, the 
high center will once again begin to reconsolidate over the Desert 
Southwest in a less favorable position overhead. By Wednesday the 
intensity of the ridge will be very impressive with a large scale 
trough developing through eastern states, and the high center 
should lift north and northeast of our area. That will increase 
that number of scenarios that bring deeper moisture toward our 
area, which in turn will increase thunderstorm chances. No big 
trigger to point at though, and activity in western Mexico remains 
very inconsistent. It's tough to forecast more than isolated 
valley to scattered mountain thunderstorms even with the high in a 
more favorable position next week. Meanwhile we'll continue to 
deal with above average heat. 


&& 


Aviation...valid thru 30/12z. 
Mostly clear. Normal diurnal wind trends, gusty west and northwest 
winds at times in the afternoon, particularly near ksad. Aviation 
discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...dry conditions through Saturday. Daytime minimum 
relative humidity will generally range from 5-15 percent area-wide. 
Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are then expected to 
occur Sunday into next Wednesday. The bulk of these thunderstorms 
will be south of Tucson. The main concern with the return of 
thunderstorms is the likelihood for strong, gusty and erratic winds 
at times, and the potential for new fire ignitions due to lightning. 
Otherwise, west to northwest afternoon winds at 10-15 mph are 
expected into early next week, with the strongest speeds northeast 
of Tucson and especially in vicinity of Safford. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 






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