000 
fxus65 ktwc 231534 
afdtwc 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
834 am MST Thu Mar 23 2017 


Synopsis...a storm system will bring a chance of showers and 
thunderstorms today mainly from Tucson eastward along with much 
cooler temperatures and gusty winds. Dry conditions with somewhat 
milder temperatures and gusty winds at times will occur over the 
weekend into early next week. 


&& 


Discussion...a frontal band with showers and even a few rumbles of 
thunder continues to March eastward across the forecast area. Latest 
surface observations indicate the cold front is now moving through 
Graham and Cochise counties. A 75 mile wide or so band of scattered 
showers is now located generally west of a line from Safford-Bisbee 
with the western edge now lined up from Kearney-Three Points-Sasabe. 
Rainfall amounts have generally been light with most locations under 
0.10", however a few spots that have seen heavier convective showers 
received up to 0.33". Snow levels are generally above 7000 feet or 
so and an inch or two of snow will be possible in the mountains as 
well. Once the precipitation with the frontal band moves east out of 
the area by early this afternoon, we will be under the influence of 
the cold pool under the upper low. Thus, some instability clouds and 
even a few lingering showers are possible, especially north and east 
of Tucson this afternoon in Graham and Greenlee counties. Otherwise, 
the big story is the much cooler temperatures today with highs about 
5-10 degrees below normal. Winds will be continue to be gusty as well 
making it feel even a bit chillier. 


The upper low will push east of the area with any lingering 
showers/snow showers across the White Mountains ending tonight. 
Shortwave ridging will build in for Friday with mostly sunny skies 
and temperatures warming back up to seasonable levels. Heading into 
the weekend and early next week, we will see a fairly progressive 
pattern take shape. The next system will remain to our north on 
Saturday/Saturday night but the gradient will tighten again for some 
afternoon breezes. High temperatures will rebound back into the 
lower 80's on Saturday for Tucson. Another shortwave ridge for 
Sunday before another system starts digging into the southwest by 
late Monday. Still considerable differences in the models by Tuesday 
and Wednesday regarding the strength and amplitude of this system 
and resulting impacts to our area. At the very least, expect some 
increased winds along with cooler temperatures and perhaps some 
showers. Will take a closer look at the 12z guidance and have more 
in the afternoon package. 


Just made a few tweaks to the grids this morning for the latest 
trends. Otherwise, no updates beyond the short term. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 24/18z. 
Scattered-broken cloud decks at 6-9k ft above ground level thru 23/20z with isolated to 
scattered -tsra/-shra, then clearing skies from west to east. 
Westerly/northwesterly surface wind at 17-25 kts and gusts to 25-33 kts this 
afternoon. The strongest wind will be east of ktus, in the vicinity 
of kalk, kdug and especially ksad. Diminishing surface wind aft 
24/03z. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...a Pacific storm system will bring a chance of 
showers and thunderstorms today, with the main focus north/northeast 
of Tucson. A few snow showers may occur across the White Mountains 
northeast of Safford tonight. Dry conditions will then prevail 
Friday into Sunday. There is a slight chance of showers across the 
White Mountains Monday. 


Expect gusty west to northwest winds today accompanied by higher relative humidity 
values, then less wind Friday. Elevated and gusty afternoon winds 
are forecast Saturday into the middle of next week. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 






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