Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
910 PM MST Friday Aug 26 2016 


Synopsis...expect isolated to scattered afternoon and evening 
thunderstorms especially east of Tucson into next week. 


&& 


Discussion...a few showers and thunderstorms continue across far 
southeast Cochise County east of Douglas at this time. Otherwise, 
clear skies to partly cloudy skies prevailed across this forecast 
area as of 9 PM MST. Storm Prediction Center mesoscale analysis indicates that the 
environment has become increasingly stable during the past few 
hours, with MUCAPE values valid 8 PM MST ranging only from 500-1000 
j/kg. 


The official forecast for the rest of tonight was updated earlier to 
limit a slight chance of showers/tstms to Greenlee/Graham/Cochise 
counties east of Tucson. Dry conditions should prevail the rest of 
tonight from Tucson westward into western Pima County as per several 
hrrr solutions. 27/00z NAM suggests less coverage of showers/tstms 
Saturday versus this afternoon, with the bulk of activity depicted 
to occur east of Tucson. 


Please refer to the additional sections for further detail. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 28/06z. 
Isolated to scattered -tsra/-shra mainly east of ktus to the New 
Mexico border from late Saturday morning into Saturday evening. 
Cloud decks generally 10k-15k ft msl and surface wind mainly less 
than 10 kts thru the valid period. Aviation discussion not updated 
for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...isolated to scattered afternoon and evening 
thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson this weekend and during the 
upcoming week. 20-foot winds into next week will be terrain driven 
and less than 15 mph in most locations. Expect the potential for 
strong and gusty winds near any thunderstorms that do develop. 


&& 


Previous discussion /243 PM MST/...with the influx of moisture below 
500mb over the past 24 hours we are back up to normal monsoon levels 
with precipitable water values around 1.3 to 1.5 and surface dew 
points near 60. An eager atmosphere kicked things off around mid 
morning in a nice convergent area southwest through south of Tucson. 
If we could have cooked a little longer we might have managed to get 
a little more explosive, however coverage has been good overall with 
spotty heavy rainers. Our area of emphasis in the late afternoon and 
early evening will shift north, northeast and east of Tucson. 


An approaching mid level weakness from the west may keep a few 
showers going overnight. The timing for this feature may not be very 
good for tomorrow, with some drying again wrapping in under this 
feature by tomorrow afternoon. The area of focus for best storm 
development will probably shift eastward into Cochise, Graham and 
Greenlee counties Saturday and Sunday. 


Beyond that, we should manage enough moisture for a chance of 
thunderstorms deep into the new week, especially from Tucson 
eastward. Best days looking like Wednesday and maybe Thursday. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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