Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
837 PM MST Monday Apr 27 2015 


Synopsis...a quick warming trend...with well above normal daytime 
temperatures by midweek. A few lingering showers will be possible 
over the White Mountains again Tuesday. Otherwise...dry conditions 
will prevail through the work week. 


&& 


Discussion...some middle level clouds are scattered across Southeast 
Arizona...lingering on the backside of a low pressure system 
currently located over northern Texas. Additional clearing is 
expected overnight. A much warmer day today...with high temperatures 
7 to 9 degrees above sunday's high...still around 4 to 7 degrees 
below normal. However...the warming trend will continue. 
Temperatures Tuesday will increase another 2 to 4 degrees...bringing 
temperatures to within a few degrees of normal. Tonight...winds 
transitioning to easterly...becoming breezy at times. Tonight's low 
will be a bit warmer...around 5 degrees above normal for most 
places. Breezy to gusty east winds will continue through the early 
afternoon tomorrow before beginning to diminish. Areas that are more 
prone to east winds will see some enhancement leading to stronger 
winds. Isolated to scattered showers over the White Mountains will 
again be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise...dry 
conditions will prevail. 


Current forecast seems on track...no grid changes planned at this 
time. 


For the extended forecast please see the previous discussion below. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 29/06z. Few-scattered clouds 09-12 kft above ground level...with 
additional clearing overnight. Ely winds will increase to 12-15 kts 
with gusts to 20 kts early Tuesday morning with local areas around 
20 kts with gusts to 30 kts especially vicinity ktus and kdug through 28/20z 
then wind easing to 7-12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for 
taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...a few mainly light showers are possible through 
Tuesday across the White Mountains with dry conditions expected 
elsewhere through Friday. Gusty east winds will develop late 
tonight and continue into the afternoon with 15-20 miles per hour with gusts of 
25-30 miles per hour. Local areas prone to an easterly wind will likely see 
wind speeds 20-25 miles per hour with gusts over 30 miles per hour. After easing Tuesday 
afternoon the easterly winds will pick up again Wednesday morning 
but should be a bit weaker than Tuesday morning then ease up again 
in the afternoon. Lighter winds are expected Thursday and Friday. 


Temperatures will climb each day with afternoon highs peaking about 
10 degrees warmer than normal by the end of the week with dew points 
steadily dropping several degrees each day. Moisture will gradually 
increase next weekend with a small threat of showers again late next 
weekend or early next week. 


&& 


Previous discussion...by early Wednesday the low will have moved to a 
position over the Dixie states...with the associated trough axis 
extending westward across the Southern Plains into northern Mexico 
to the south of Arizona. Meanwhile...behind this trough a high 
pressure system will be situated over Southern California and into the 
Great Basin and northern rockies/plains. The high will be overhead 
Thursday and just east of Arizona on Friday. This will result in a 
significant warmup for the end of the work week. 


For this weekend expect nearly zonal flow with weak disturbances 
embedded within the flow moving across the region. Right now these 
systems look too weak to result in any 'real' threat for 
precipitation...so only used single digit probability of precipitation in the grids for the 
time being...which are too small to result in a mention in the text 
products. However...by next Monday models advertise a trough of low 
pressure making its way toward the Southern California coast and 
into the Desert Southwest...which should bring some threat for 
precipitation to the region. For now I just have slight chance probability of precipitation 
for mostly mountain locations from Tucson to the New Mexico border. 


For Tucson highs generally near normal Tuesday...then above normal 
thereafter. The warmest days will occur Thursday and Friday when 
highs will be around 7 to 10 degrees above normal. Otherwise...highs 
during that period around 2 to 5 degrees above normal. Low temperatures 
through the period will range from 4 to 7 degrees above normal...but 
the warmest mornings should occur Friday and Saturday. Normal highs 
this time of year for Tucson are around 86 to 88 degrees...while normal 
lows around around 55 to 57 degrees. 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 




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