Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
814 am MST sun Feb 14 2016 

Synopsis...strong high pressure aloft over the western states will 
provide dry conditions with unseasonably warm daytime temperatures 
through next week. 


Discussion...latest WV/infrared satellite imagery is showing a weak 
shortwave moving across Southeast Arizona with just a thin veil of 
cirrus clouds now across Cochise and Santa Cruz counties and nudging 
to the south and east. With heights and thicknesses just a touch 
lower than yesterday...expect a few degrees of cooling but still 
well above normal with sunny skies. With the area being on the east 
flank of the ridge axis now across the eastern Pacific...we will 
likely see additional cirrus cloudiness which are now upstream to 
our northwest move into the area tonight. Otherwise...the ridge axis 
will continue to build into the area through Wednesday with 
continued warmth which will peak Wednesday when high temperatures 
will be at about 20 degrees above normal with many record highs 
likely. Thereafter...some slight cooling as the ridge moves east and 
southwesterly flow moves in aloft. Expect some increased afternoon 
breezes late this week but little moisture with the storm track 
remaining well to our north. We'll just be keeping our eye on any 
mainly middle/high level moisture that tries to move in from the 
eastern Pacific on the southwesterly flow. 


Aviation...valid through 15/18z. 
Sky clear-scattered to occasionally broken cirrus clouds above 20k feet through the 
period. Surface winds will be light and under 10 kts through 14/17z then 
becmg northwest 8-15 kts with local gusts to 20 kts mainly Gila River 
valley. Wind easing below 10 kts again after 15/03z. Aviation 
discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


Fire weather...dry conditions along with much above normal 
afternoon high temperatures to continue into the middle of next 
week...reaching record high levels again Tuesday and Wednesday. Relative humidity 
values will continue to range from 5 to 15 percent in the valleys 
accompanied by fairly weak night time recoveries through at least 
Wednesday with a bit of improvement thereafter. Generally light 
winds through Tuesday...then expect increasing southwest winds each 
afternoon Wednesday through Friday next week as a low pressure 
system approaches from the west. Cerniglia 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 




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