Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
915 PM MST Sat Sep 24 2016 


Synopsis...a low pressure system south of the area will bring 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. 
Gusty east winds will also accompany this system. A chance of 
showers and thunderstorms continues Wednesday and Thursday mainly 
east of Tucson, then a drying trend will occur by next weekend. 


&& 


Discussion...a few showers and thunderstorms managed to develop 
this afternoon in the far southeast corner of Arizona around 
Douglas. This activity had since dissipated with debris cloudiness 
shifting out of area late this evening. Otherwise, mostly clear 
skies with temperatures similar to readings on Friday evening. At 
any rate, the current forecast looked in good shape so no updates 
necessary. 


&& 


Aviation...valid through 26/06z. 
Scattered-broken clouds at 8-12k ft above ground level near kdug through 25/09z. Sfc winds 
around 10 kts becoming light and terrain driven overnight. Few-scattered 
clouds at 8-12k ft above ground level Sunday afternoon generally near the nm and 
int'l borders with a slight chance of -shra/-tsra. Ely sfc wind 
increasing to around 8-12 kts late Sunday morning into the 
afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...mainly light westerly/northwesterly winds will 
continue into this evening with easterly breezes around 15-20 mph 
developing Sunday afternoon and persisting into Tuesday. Moisture 
will rebound back into the area Sunday evening as an upper level low 
begins to affect Arizona. This will result in a chance of showers 
and thunderstorms through midweek followed by drier conditions by 
next weekend. 


&& 


Previous discussion...the 24/12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC were quite similar with 
developing an upper low over northeastern Sonora Mexico around 
midday Sunday. This upper low is then progged to move southwestward 
to near the Baja California spur by midday Monday. Various hi-res 
models were similar with maintaining precip-free conditions across 
this forecast area Sunday. However, for this forecast issuance, have 
maintained a slight chance of showers/tstms Sunday afternoon mainly 
near the international border adjacent Santa Cruz/Cochise counties, 
and across the White Mountains. 


Moisture should increase from southeast-to-northwest Sunday night 
into Monday in response to a deep Ely/sely flow regime. Precip 
chances should also increase correspondingly, and have opted for a 
chance of showers with isolated thunderstorms for most sections by 
Monday afternoon. The various nwp models depict the bulk of deeper 
moisture Tuesday to be well north of the area. The coverage of 
showers/tstms is expected to be less Tuesday versus Monday, and have 
continued with a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms 
area-wide Tuesday. 


The upper low is progged to move northward Tuesday night into far 
southeast California/southwest Arizona, then weaken and continue 
northward into northwest Arizona Wednesday. The flow aloft is also 
progged to become increasingly southwesterly Wednesday. This flow 
regime in combination with lingering moisture may ultimately produce 
the possibility of more-conventional severe weather Wednesday 
afternoon/evening. Still much too soon for this kind of detail to be 
definitively determined. 


At any rate, the best chance of showers/tstms Wed-thur should be 
across eastern sections. Thereafter, increasingly swly/wly flow 
aloft Fri-Sat will likely shunt deeper moisture well east of the 
area. Moisture at this time appears to be adequate to support a 
slight chance of showers/tstms Fri-Sat mainly near the New Mexico 
border. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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