Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
210 PM MST Wednesday Apr 23 2014 


Synopsis...breezy to locally windy conditions today as a low 
pressure system moves north of the area. Expect less wind on 
Thursday...then winds will increase Friday and become strong and 
gusty Saturday as a stronger system moves across the area. There 
will be a chance of valley rain and high elevation snow showers 
Saturday into Saturday night. Dry and warmer next week. 


&& 


Discussion...upper trough pushing through the state today has brought 
breezy to very localized windy conditions to the area along with 
cooler daytime temperatures. Afternoon temperatures were running 5-8 
degrees cooler than Tuesday. 


Less wind Thursday but still gusty at times east of Tucson in northwest-southeast 
oriented valleys. Highs will be 2-4 degrees warmer than today. 


Friday...SW flow aloft increases in advance of strong upper level 
trough moving into the West Coast. Breezy to locally windy with highs 
similar to Thursday. Fire weather issues are addressed below. 


Saturday...above mentioned strong upper trough to swing through the 
state bringing gusty winds...areas of blowing dust...a chance of 
valley rain and mountain snow showers and much cooler temperatures. 
Fire weather issues are addressed below. May eventually need a Wind 
Advisory for the eastern zones. Snow level by late Saturday 
afternoon are forecast to be between 6k-6.5kft north to near 9kft 
far southeast. Wet snow above 7000 feet in the mountains from Tucson NE 
into the whites with a couple of inches possible in the whites. 
Highs with be 5-17 degrees colder than Friday...with the biggest 
changes occurring west and north of Tucson. A good analog year that 
was similar to the upcoming storm was the one that hit the state 
about the same time in 1994 


Saturday night into Sunday morning...showers ending as system moves 
through New Mexico. Much colder air mass areawide. Looking at 20s 
and 30s in the mountains with a few lower elevation areas of 
Graham...Cochise and Santa Cruz counties between 30 and 34 degrees. 


Sunday...a little warmer under dry/cool northwest flow aloft. 


Monday through Wednesday...warming trend as upper high builds into 
the West Coast. Arizona will be under dry northerly flow aloft. 


&& 


Aviation...surface wind westerly 12-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts until 
24/03z then becoming light generally less than 10 kts. Otherwise...scattered 
cirrus clouds above 20k feet above ground level. Aviation discussion not updated for 
taf amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...a trough of low pressure moving across the state 
today has brought gusty west winds to the area with sustained 20 
foot winds generally in the 10-20 miles per hour range. With very dry surface 
regime minimum relative humidity values will range from the upper 
single digits to the teens. There will be a few places east of 
Tucson near red flag criteria into early this evening...but 
durations not long enough to be a concern. 


Somewhat less wind will occur Thursday...then winds will increase 
again Friday and become strong and gusty Saturday as another low 
pressure trough moves across the area. Critical fire weather 
conditions are possible both Friday and Saturday. Moisture will be 
on the increase on Saturday...so Friday may end up being the day for 
a watch. A Fire Weather Watch may be posted within the next 24 hours. 


Isolated to scattered valley showers and mountain snow showers 
Saturday/Saturday evening. There will still be some breeziness 
Sunday...then less wind should occur Monday and Tuesday as high 
pressure builds over the area. 


&& 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


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