Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tucson Arizona 
247 am MST sun Oct 23 2016 

Synopsis...above normal daytime temperatures will continue this 
week. A trough of low pressure moving through western states 
mainly north of US will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to 
the area through Monday night, but many locations will miss out. 
Dry conditions return late Tuesday through Thursday, with another 
slight chance of showers on Friday. 


Discussion...the ridge axis is well east of our area with the 
back side of the ridge dirtying up ahead of a developing trough 
moving in from the eastern Pacific. Increasing moisture in the 
mid level southerly to southwesterly flow pushed our precipitable 
water up to around .8 by yesterday afternoon. Current CIRA layered 
precipitable water totals as well as latest gefs plumes suggest that this will 
increase to between .9 and 1 inch over the next 24 hours. Surface 
dew points are also responding, up 5 to 10 degrees over the past 
24 hours putting them generally in the 40s. 

We have two triggers to take advantage of this moisture over the 
next 36 hours. First is a weak impulse embedded in the 
southwesterly flow well ahead of the trough this afternoon that, 
along with above average surface heating for late October, should 
bring a few lightning strikes this afternoon. 

The second trigger will be the dynamics associated with far 
southern portions of the trough itself lifting through Arizona 
Monday afternoon and Monday night. Better dynamics with this, but 
the best action will probably end up north of our area. 

The ridge regains full control late Tuesday through Thursday. 
Another glancing blow from a system pushing through the central 
and northern Great Basin could bring a few showers Friday. 

There's just no strong fall system that will push our temperatures 
back even close to normal in sight the rest of the month. This 
October is going to go into the books as a hot one for our area. 


Aviation...valid through 24/12z. 
A few clouds at 12-18k ft above ground level this morning, becoming scattered-broken at 
around 10k ft above ground level this afternoon. There is a slight chance of -tsra/- 
rain showers thru the forecast period. Outside of any thunderstorm wind 
gusts, surface wind will be mainly less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion 
not updated for taf amendments. 


Fire weather...there is a slight chance of showers and 
thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. A few lingering showers are 
possible Tuesday afternoon in the White Mountains. Dry conditions 
will prevail late Tuesday into early Friday. Another system will 
then bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday into 
next weekend. Above normal daytime temperatures are expected to 
continue through the period, with 20-foot winds less than 15 mph 
outside of any thunderstorms. 


Climate...another day, another record high at Tucson International 
Airport yesterday. The high temperature of 96 degrees was not only a 
daily record, it also marked the latest back-to-back 96 degree 
days tia has ever seen in the calendar year. 


Twc watches/warnings/advisories...none. 




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