A few areas of disturbed weather

The area of disturbed weather over South Florida has weakened and is no longer a threat. An associated area of disturbed weather is building off the East Coast of Florida, and has some potential for development over the next two days as it heads north towards the Carolinas. Computer models continue to show development of a weak tropical or subtropical system Friday night or Saturday south of the Carolinas. This system would then get swept up the coast this weekend, possibly bringing strong winds to Cape Hatteras. The storm would continue moving up the coast, passing several hundred miles east of Cape Cod on Sunday night. The chances of this system becoming a hurricane are very low.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida waters.

We will need to watch a developing area of heavy thunderstorm activity over the northern Gulf of Mexico near Mississippi the next few days, since wind shear is light and the ocean waters are warm. None of the computer models forecast development from this area, however. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today. A large area of African dust covers the entire Atlantic between Africa and the eastern Caribbean, and will act to suppress tropical storm formation in those regions over the next few days.

Jeff Masters