A low pressure system (Invest 97L) over the Central Caribbean is generating heavy rains from Jamaica to the coast of Panama, and is moving northwest at about 8 mph. Satellite loops show 97L has a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms. The broad area of spin 97L had on Sunday is less apparent today. Dry air covers the Northwest Caribbean, and this dry air is slowing development.
JeffMasters, • 12:16 PM GMT on September 30, 2013
A low pressure system (Invest 97L) over the Central Caribbean is generating heavy rains from Haiti to Panama, and is moving northwest at about 7 mph. Satellite loops show 97L has a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms and a broad area of spin. Dry air covers the Northwest Caribbean, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F), and wind shear is a high 20 knots.
JeffMasters, • 3:59 PM GMT on September 29, 2013
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased." Thus opens the landmark 2013 (IPCC) report.
JeffMasters, • 10:50 AM GMT on September 27, 2013
Comprehensive. Authoritative. Conservative.Those words summarize the world's most rigorous and important scientific report in history: the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate assessment, due to be released at 4am EDT Friday in Stockholm, Sweden.
JeffMasters, • 11:31 AM GMT on September 26, 2013
In the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico, a stalled stationary front is bringing heavy thunderstorms to west-central Florida, where heavy rains of up to six inches have caused flooding problems. A weak area of low pressure along this front will move over the coastal waters several hundred miles offshore of North Carolina by Friday, when an extratropical storm is expected to develop. This storm is expected to stay non-tropical and potentially bring rain to New England on Sunday and Monday.
JeffMasters, • 1:15 PM GMT on September 25, 2013
In the Northern Gulf of Mexico, a stalled stationary is bringing heavy thunderstorms to northern and central Florida, where heavy rains of up to six inches have caused isolated flooding problems. A weak area of low pressure along this front will move over the coastal waters several hundred miles offshore of South Carolina on Thursday, where the ECMWF and Canadian GEM models predict that development into a tropical or subtropical depression could occur by Friday.
JeffMasters, • 2:01 PM GMT on September 24, 2013
August 2013 was the globe's 4th warmest August since records began in 1880, and the year-to-date period of January - August has been the 6th warmest such period on record. August 2013 global land temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 5th warmest on record. Intense heat waves hit Central Europe and East Asia, which brought all-time national heat records to Austria, Slovenia, and Japan. The globe had 6 billion-dollar weather disasters in August.
JeffMasters, • 1:37 PM GMT on September 23, 2013
Typhoon Usagi made landfall near Shanwei, China, about 90 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong, near 6 pm local time (6 am EDT) on Sunday. At landfall, Usagi--the Japanese word for rabbit--was a powerful Category 2 typhoon with top sustained winds of 110 mph. Shanwei recorded a sea level pressure of about 941 mb at landfall. As of noon EDT, the top winds recorded at the Hong Hong Airport were sustained at 40 mph, with gusts to 53 mph.
JeffMasters, • 4:50 PM GMT on September 22, 2013
Dangerous Category 3 Typhoon Usagi is charging through the Luzon Strait between Taiwan and the Philippines on its way towards China, where landfall is expected early Monday morning local time (near 2 pm EDT on Sunday) near Hong Hong. The typhoon battered the northern Philippine Batanes Islands overnight with wind gusts of up to 155 mph (250 kph), ripping down power lines and damaging crops. Torrential rains of over a foot (305 mm) have fallen in 24 hours over eastern Taiwan.
JeffMasters, • 4:25 PM GMT on September 21, 2013
shauntanner • 6:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2013
Hurricane Manuel made landfall in the Mexican state of Sinaloa almost due east of the tip of the Baja Peninsula this Thursday morning near 8 am EDT, as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. It was Manuel's second landfall this week in storm-weary Mexico. Manuel hit the coast on Monday as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds northwest of Acapulco, bringing torrential rains of up to foot in the coastal mountains. At least 138 people are dead or missing in Mexico from flooding this week.
JeffMasters, • 12:56 PM GMT on September 19, 2013
Flooding from the combined one-two punch of Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast and Tropical Storm Manuel on the Pacific coast is now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. The two storms hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, packing sustained winds of 65 - 70 mph and torrential rains. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours.
JeffMasters, • 2:20 PM GMT on September 18, 2013
After nine consecutive days with rain, skies have finally cleared over flood-ravaged Boulder, Colorado. Flooding from the past week's rains have killed at least seven, destroyed over 1,500 homes, damaged 18,000 homes, and caused close to $1 billion in damage. Over 70 bridges have been damaged or destroyed, and hundreds of roads damaged, including major sections of U.S. Highways 34, 36 and 72. Clear skies are forecast for the remainder of the week, though.
JeffMasters, • 2:42 PM GMT on September 17, 2013
Tropical Storm Ingrid hit the Mexican coast about 200 miles south of the Texas border with top sustained winds of 65 mph at approximately 8 am EDT Monday morning. Ingrid weakened below hurricane strength just before landfall, and it appears that strong upper-level winds from the outflow of Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have been responsible for keeping Ingrid weaker than expected for the past 24 hours.
JeffMasters, • 2:34 PM GMT on September 16, 2013
Dangerous Hurricane Ingrid weakened Sunday morning, and is barely a hurricane, but the storm's heavy rains remain a major threat to Eastern Mexico. Sunday morning wind data from the Hurricane Hunters showed the highest surface winds in Ingrid were just below hurricane force, and it appears that upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Manuel to its west may have increased wind shear over Ingrid, causing weakening.
JeffMasters, • 4:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2013
Extremely dangerous Tropical Storm Ingrid is near hurricane strength as it heads northwards over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Ingrid is embedded in a very moist environment, making it the most dangerous Atlantic Tropical Cyclone of 2013 thus far, due to its rainfall potential. The storm is already bringing sporadic heavy rains to the Eastern Mexican coast near Tampico, but the storm's heaviest rains remain offshore.
JeffMasters, • 3:38 PM GMT on September 14, 2013
Colorado's epic deluge is finally winding down, as a trough of low pressure moves across the state and pushes out the moist, tropical airmass that has brought record-breaking rainfall amounts and flooding. Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night and Thursday morning, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least three people. The flood that swept down Boulder Creek into Boulder, Colorado was a 1-in-100 year event, said the U.S. Geological Survey.
JeffMasters, • 3:43 PM GMT on September 13, 2013
Devastating flash floods swept though numerous canyons along the Front Range of Colorado's Rocky Mountains Wednesday night, washing out roads, collapsing houses, and killing at least two people. The floods were triggered by widespread torrential rains of 4 - 6" that fell in less than twelve hours, thanks to a flow of extremely moist air from the southeast. Balloon soundings from Denver last night and this morning recorded the highest levels of September moisture on record for the station.
JeffMasters, • 3:06 PM GMT on September 12, 2013
The Atlantic's first hurricane of 2013 finally arrived this Wednesday morning, as Hurricane Humberto intensified into a minimum-strength Category 1 hurricane in the far Eastern Atlantic. Humberto is listed in NHC's preliminary Best-Track data repository as having achieved hurricane strength at 8 am EDT on September 11, which would tie it with Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for the latest appearance of the season's first hurricane, since 1941.
JeffMasters, • 2:33 PM GMT on September 11, 2013
September 10 marks the traditional halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the first half of the hurricane season of 2013 is making its mark in the history books as one of the least active such periods on record. Going back to before when the Hurricane Hunters first began flying in 1944, there has been only one other hurricane season that made it past the half-way point without a hurricane forming: the El Niño year of 2002.
JeffMasters, • 2:18 PM GMT on September 10, 2013
Tropical Storm Humberto, the eighth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, is here. Humberto has formed unusually far to the east, between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in the southern Cape Verde Islands, and Humberto's rain bands have already arrived in capital city of Praia, where 1.46" of rain has fallen, with sustained winds as high as 26 mph.
JeffMasters, • 2:11 PM GMT on September 09, 2013
It's a rare tropical cyclone-free September 8th on Earth, without a tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane, or typhoon in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Oceans. Considering that the first two weeks of September are the peak of the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Northwest Pacific, today's lack of activity is quite unusual. It looks like the Atlantic will be ocean basin to break the tropical cyclone-free spell.
JeffMasters, • 4:31 PM GMT on September 08, 2013
The latest minor blip on the almost inconsequential Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 was Tropical Depression Eight, which formed at 2 pm EDT Friday just offshore of Tampico, Mexico. The depression made landfall less than three hours later, and had top winds estimated at 35 mph. The depression has already dissipated, but brought heavy rains that were expected to accumulate to 3 - 5" along its path. Tampico, Mexico recorded 2.60" of rain from the storm.
JeffMasters, • 3:14 PM GMT on September 07, 2013
After a brief 12-hour stint as a tropical storm, Gabrielle was torn apart Thursday night by a strong tropical disturbance to its east, and interaction with the rough terrain of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The remnants of Gabrielle and the tropical disturbance to its east are generating heavy thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Eastern Dominican Republic, and the Virgin Islands.
JeffMasters, • 2:49 PM GMT on September 06, 2013
After a brief 12-hour life as a tropical storm, Gabrielle has weakened to a tropical depression as it moves northwest at 9 mph. Wind shear, dry air, and interaction with the rough terrain of Puerto Rico and a strong tropical disturbance to its northeast have significantly disrupted Gabrielle. The surface center of circulation is near the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, and is displaced about 150 miles to the west-southwest of the main area of heavy thunderstorms.
JeffMasters, • 3:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2013
Tropical Storm Warnings are flying in Puerto Rico, as Tropical Depression Seven steadily organizes and moves north-northwest at 2 mph towards the south coast of the island. TD 7 had been moving to the northwest most of Wednesday, and this new NNW motion may be due to the influence of a strong tropical disturbance located about 300 miles to the east-northeast of TD 7.
JeffMasters, • 12:37 AM GMT on September 05, 2013
A tropical wave over the Northeast Caribbean (Invest 97L) is slowly growing more organized as it moves west-northwest at 10 mph towards Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Winds gusts of 36 mph have been recorded this morning at St. John in the Virgin Islands, and heavy thunderstorms from 97L have dumped over an inch of rain in many locations in the Virgin Islands and Northern Puerto Rico as of 11 am AST Wednesday.
JeffMasters, • 3:31 PM GMT on September 04, 2013
Hurricane Sandy was an extremely rare event, or else climate change has shifted the odds of such a track to make it more likely. A paper published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Elizabeth Barnes of Colorado State and co-authors, "Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms", argues that our best climate models project we should see a decrease in the type of steering patterns that brought Sandy to the coast at such an unusual angle.
JeffMasters, • 10:14 PM GMT on September 03, 2013
A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving west-northwest at 10 mph, and is bringing sporadic heavy rain showers to the islands. Heavy thunderstorm activity has been low since Monday, and is spread out, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows little evidence of rotation to the echoes, and no low-level spiral bands forming.
JeffMasters, • 2:34 PM GMT on September 03, 2013
A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving west to west-northwest at 10 mph, and is bringing sporadic heavy rain showers to the islands. Heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased in organization since Sunday, and is spread out over a larger are. The thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation.
JeffMasters, • 2:14 PM GMT on September 02, 2013
A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving westward at 15 mph, and is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the islands. Top sustained winds in the islands as of 10 am AST Sunday were 26 mph at Monserrat. Heavy thunderstorm activity has sharply increased since Saturday, as seen on satellite loops. A large circulation is evident, with some westerly winds blowing to the south of the disturbance.
JeffMasters, • 2:46 PM GMT on September 01, 2013