Two minor disturbances in the tropics today

Two areas in the tropics bear mentioning today, but the long range chances of either of these disturbances developing into a tropical storm are low. The first area is associated with a cold-cored upper level low pressure system north of Puerto Rico and east of the Bahama Islands. A tropical wave is passing through the area as well, and the combination is producing heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds over a large area of ocean. This activity will move slowly northwest over the next few days, but wind shear--currently 10 to 20 knots over the region--is expected to increase, keeping this system from developing.

A large tropical wave about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west-northwest at about 15-20 mph. Wind shear has dropped to 5-15 knots over a large region surrounding the wave, and some slow development is possible today and Monday. However, wind shear is forecast to increase sharply in the wave's vicinity on Tuesday, and the wave is pushing northward into an large area of dry air and African dust. These factors make the longer-term growth of this wave doubtful.

High wind shear will continue over the Gulf of Mexico for the next few days, so I don't expect any development there, and the rest of the tropics are quiet.

On Monday, I'll take a look at what one expects in a normal July in the tropics, and speculate on what will happen the next two weeks.

Have a great Sunday, everyone!
Jeff Masters