Update on remains of TD 10

I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever and seeing it struggle to maintain its identity as a tropical wave the past few days. However, recent visible satellite images (as of 3pm EDT) indicate the remains of TD 10 may have developed a surface circulation centered just north of Haiti. The cloud pattern continues to look disorganized, but could show some development as the system approaches Florida by Wednesday. The latest "early" track guidance for this system shows it roughly paralleling the coast of Cuba, so development of this system may be substantially hindered by interaction with land. Some of the computer models indicate development of this system into a tropical storm when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico later this week, when the large upper level high anchored over Mississippi that has been creating high shear over the Gulf finally moves off to the west. I'm not a believer, I think the environment for the remains of TD 10 will still be too hostile to permit a tropical storm from developing.



Jeff Masters