Tropical Cyclone Berguitta

Last Updated: 1516104000

Location:
-18.2N 298.9E
Movement:
WSW at 5 mph
Wind:
100 mph
Pressure:
--

Storm Maps
Storm Details

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000 
wtxs31 pgtw 161500
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta) warning nr 016    
   01 active tropical cyclone in southio
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   161200z --- near 18.2s 61.1e
     movement past six hours - 245 degrees at 05 kts
     position accurate to within 025 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 085 kt, gusts 105 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
                            050 nm southeast quadrant
                            030 nm southwest quadrant
                            035 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
                            095 nm southeast quadrant
                            060 nm southwest quadrant
                            065 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 110 nm northeast quadrant
                            170 nm southeast quadrant
                            115 nm southwest quadrant
                            120 nm northwest quadrant
   repeat posit: 18.2s 61.1e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   170000z --- 18.7s 60.2e
   Max sustained winds - 085 kt, gusts 105 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant
                            030 nm southeast quadrant
                            030 nm southwest quadrant
                            030 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
                            085 nm southeast quadrant
                            075 nm southwest quadrant
                            055 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 100 nm northeast quadrant
                            270 nm southeast quadrant
                            250 nm southwest quadrant
                            115 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 24 hr posit: 240 deg/ 07 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   171200z --- 19.4s 59.0e
   Max sustained winds - 085 kt, gusts 105 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 020 nm northeast quadrant
                            025 nm southeast quadrant
                            025 nm southwest quadrant
                            035 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
                            090 nm southeast quadrant
                            075 nm southwest quadrant
                            060 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 100 nm northeast quadrant
                            265 nm southeast quadrant
                            250 nm southwest quadrant
                            120 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 36 hr posit: 235 deg/ 09 kts
    ---
   36 hrs, valid at:
   180000z --- 20.4s 57.5e
   Max sustained winds - 085 kt, gusts 105 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
                            040 nm southeast quadrant
                            035 nm southwest quadrant
                            015 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
                            100 nm southeast quadrant
                            085 nm southwest quadrant
                            055 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 120 nm northeast quadrant
                            255 nm southeast quadrant
                            235 nm southwest quadrant
                            130 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 48 hr posit: 235 deg/ 13 kts
    ---
   extended outlook:
   48 hrs, valid at:
   181200z --- 21.8s 55.2e
   Max sustained winds - 085 kt, gusts 105 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 015 nm northeast quadrant
                            040 nm southeast quadrant
                            035 nm southwest quadrant
                            020 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
                            100 nm southeast quadrant
                            085 nm southwest quadrant
                            045 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
                            230 nm southeast quadrant
                            245 nm southwest quadrant
                            135 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 72 hr posit: 230 deg/ 10 kts
    ---
   72 hrs, valid at:
   191200z --- 24.5s 51.9e
   Max sustained winds - 075 kt, gusts 090 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
                            045 nm southeast quadrant
                            040 nm southwest quadrant
                            020 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
                            085 nm southeast quadrant
                            075 nm southwest quadrant
                            055 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 170 nm northeast quadrant
                            220 nm southeast quadrant
                            205 nm southwest quadrant
                            115 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 96 hr posit: 200 deg/ 12 kts
    ---
   long range outlook:
    ---
   96 hrs, valid at:
   201200z --- 29.0s 50.1e
   Max sustained winds - 060 kt, gusts 075 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   becoming extratropical
   radius of 050 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
                            070 nm southeast quadrant
                            045 nm southwest quadrant
                            040 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 200 nm northeast quadrant
                            215 nm southeast quadrant
                            205 nm southwest quadrant
                            145 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 120 hr posit: 170 deg/ 12 kts
    ---
   120 hrs, valid at:
   211200z --- 33.7s 51.2e
   Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   extratropical
   radius of 034 kt winds - 225 nm northeast quadrant
                            255 nm southeast quadrant
                            205 nm southwest quadrant
                            185 nm northwest quadrant
    ---
remarks:
161500z position near 18.3s 60.9e.
Tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta), located approximately 244 nm
east-northeast of port Louis, Mauritius, has tracked west-
southwestward at 05 knots over the past six hours. Animated 
multispectral satellite imagery depicts dense overcast clouds 
obscuring the low level circulation center with spiral banding 
wrapping into the center. A 161157z 91ghz ssmis image shows the 
system severely weakened on the eastern edge with deep convection 
confined to the western semicircle. There is high confidence in the 
initial position based on the microwave image and satellite fixes. 
The initial intensity is assessed at 85 knots which is based on 
multiagency current intensity Dvorak estimates ranging from t4.5 to 
t5.0 and a 160503z satcon estimate of 85 knots. Upper-level analysis 
shows a weak point source positioned over the system with another 
point source offset to the northeast. Easterly winds from the 
secondary point source are beginning to influence outflow on the 
northern and eastern edges of tc 06s, but not to a significant 
degree. This interaction will persist over the next 12 to 24 hours 
keeping outflow somewhat restricted with low to moderate vertical 
wind shear. SSTs in the region are warm (28 celsius), and combined 
with other environmental factors will maintain tc 06s at an 
intensity of approximately 85 knots over the next 72 hours. Tc 06s 
has tracked west-southwestward over the last six hours along the 
northwestern boundary of a building subtropical ridge to the 
southeast. The ridge will steer tc 06s on a course west-southwest 
through tau 72 then shift to a track southeastward by tau 120 as it 
rounds the ridge axis. Shortly after tau 72 as tc 06s tracks below 
25 degrees south, SSTs begin to drop considerably and the system 
will begin to weaken. Around tau 96 tc 06s will begin interacting 
with an approaching mid-latitude trough and fully transition into an 
extratropical system by tau 120. Dynamic model guidance is 
continuing to showing improvement in the track uncertainty, with all 
members of the multi-model consensus closely grouped together 
through tau 48. Overall there is high confidence in the forecast 
track. Maximum significant wave height at 161200z is 29 feet. Next 
warnings at 162100z, 170300z, 170900z and 171500z.//
Nnnn

Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Berguitta and the 2018 South Indian Ocean hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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Storm Track Statistics

Date Time Lat Lon Wind (mph) Pressure Storm Type
Jan 12 18 GMT -17 66.9 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 00 GMT -17.3 65.6 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 06 GMT -17.7 64.9 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 12 GMT -17.9 64.0 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 18 GMT -18.3 63.6 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 00 GMT -18.2 63.4 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 06 GMT -18.1 63.0 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 12 GMT -18.1 62.9 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 18 GMT -18 63.1 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 00 GMT -17.8 63.2 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 06 GMT -17.8 63.2 85 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 12 GMT -18 63.0 105 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 18 GMT -18.1 62.6 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 00 GMT -18.2 61.9 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 06 GMT -18 61.6 110 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 12 GMT -18.2 61.1 100 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 12 18 GMT -17 66.9 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 00 GMT -17.3 65.6 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 06 GMT -17.7 64.9 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 12 GMT -17.9 64.0 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 18 GMT -18.3 63.6 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 00 GMT -18.2 63.4 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 06 GMT -18.1 63.0 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 12 GMT -18.1 62.9 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 18 GMT -18 63.1 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 00 GMT -17.8 63.2 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 06 GMT -17.8 63.2 85 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 12 GMT -18 63.0 105 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 18 GMT -18.1 62.6 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 00 GMT -18.2 61.9 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 06 GMT -18 61.6 110 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 12 GMT -18.2 61.1 100 -- Tropical Cyclone

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Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Berguitta and the 2018 South Indian Ocean hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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