Tropical Cyclone Kenanga

Last Updated: 1545177600

Location:
-15.8N 277.2E
Movement:
SW at 6 mph
Wind:
135 mph
Pressure:
--

Storm Maps
Storm Details

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000 
wtxs31 pgtw 190300
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 06s (kenanga) warning nr 014    
   02 active tropical cyclones in southio
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   190000z --- near 15.8s 82.8e
     movement past six hours - 220 degrees at 06 kts
     position accurate to within 025 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 115 kt, gusts 140 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
                            050 nm southeast quadrant
                            045 nm southwest quadrant
                            035 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 080 nm northeast quadrant
                            085 nm southeast quadrant
                            085 nm southwest quadrant
                            070 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 145 nm northeast quadrant
                            175 nm southeast quadrant
                            160 nm southwest quadrant
                            120 nm northwest quadrant
   repeat posit: 15.8s 82.8e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   191200z --- 16.3s 82.2e
   Max sustained winds - 110 kt, gusts 135 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
                            050 nm southeast quadrant
                            040 nm southwest quadrant
                            040 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
                            080 nm southeast quadrant
                            070 nm southwest quadrant
                            060 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
                            170 nm southeast quadrant
                            150 nm southwest quadrant
                            100 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 24 hr posit: 245 deg/ 03 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   200000z --- 16.5s 81.7e
   Max sustained winds - 100 kt, gusts 125 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
                            040 nm southeast quadrant
                            040 nm southwest quadrant
                            030 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
                            080 nm southeast quadrant
                            070 nm southwest quadrant
                            050 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 130 nm northeast quadrant
                            160 nm southeast quadrant
                            150 nm southwest quadrant
                            100 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 36 hr posit: 270 deg/ 04 kts
    ---
   36 hrs, valid at:
   201200z --- 16.5s 80.9e
   Max sustained winds - 090 kt, gusts 110 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 010 nm northeast quadrant
                            020 nm southeast quadrant
                            030 nm southwest quadrant
                            010 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
                            070 nm southeast quadrant
                            060 nm southwest quadrant
                            050 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 130 nm northeast quadrant
                            150 nm southeast quadrant
                            130 nm southwest quadrant
                            100 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 48 hr posit: 270 deg/ 04 kts
    ---
   extended outlook:
   48 hrs, valid at:
   210000z --- 16.5s 80.0e
   Max sustained winds - 080 kt, gusts 100 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 020 nm northeast quadrant
                            030 nm southeast quadrant
                            030 nm southwest quadrant
                            000 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
                            060 nm southeast quadrant
                            060 nm southwest quadrant
                            030 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 130 nm northeast quadrant
                            150 nm southeast quadrant
                            130 nm southwest quadrant
                            090 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 72 hr posit: 255 deg/ 04 kts
    ---
   72 hrs, valid at:
   220000z --- 16.9s 78.3e
   Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 000 nm northeast quadrant
                            020 nm southeast quadrant
                            020 nm southwest quadrant
                            000 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 020 nm northeast quadrant
                            040 nm southeast quadrant
                            040 nm southwest quadrant
                            020 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
                            150 nm southeast quadrant
                            120 nm southwest quadrant
                            080 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 96 hr posit: 240 deg/ 04 kts
    ---
   long range outlook:
    ---
   96 hrs, valid at:
   230000z --- 17.8s 76.8e
   Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 020 nm northeast quadrant
                            030 nm southeast quadrant
                            020 nm southwest quadrant
                            000 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 090 nm northeast quadrant
                            110 nm southeast quadrant
                            080 nm southwest quadrant
                            030 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 120 hr posit: 235 deg/ 05 kts
    ---
   120 hrs, valid at:
   240000z --- 18.9s 75.1e
   Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water
   radius of 034 kt winds - 010 nm northeast quadrant
                            050 nm southeast quadrant
                            050 nm southwest quadrant
                            000 nm northwest quadrant
    ---
remarks:
190300z position near 15.9s 82.6e.
Tropical cyclone 06s (kenanga), located approximately 799 nm
southeast of Diego Garcia, has tracked southwestward at 06 knots
over the past six hours. The initial position is placed with high
confidence based on animated multi-spectral satellite imagery
depicting a large, 43nm eye. The initial intensity was increased to
115 knots based on Dvorak estimates ranging from t6.0 to t6.5. No
recent satcon is available, however, automated Dvorak technique also
supports the 115 knot assessment. Favorable conditions persist, with
robust radial outflow and light (10-15 knots) vertical wind shear.
However, 26-27 degree celsius sea surface temperatures are marginal.
Tc 06s has been tracking southwestward under the steering influence
of subtropical ridging to the east. The track is expected to flatten
out and become more westward around tau 24 as ridging builds in to
the south of track. Southwesterly motion should resume after tau 72
as that area of ridging moves eastward. Around the end of the
forecast period, cyclone 07s may approach close enough for binary
interaction to influence the track. Despite overall favorable
conditions, kenanga is likely at or near its peak intensity as SST
support weakens. By tau 72, environmental conditions should become
unfavorable and tc 06s should weaken more rapidly. The most recent
model guidance shows a distinct bifurcation in the guidance with
navgem, GFS, and the GFS ensemble mean turning less sharply westward
than the other members between tau 36 and 72. The jtwc forecast track
is hedged towards the more westward grouping which includes the
ECMWF, galwem, UKMET, and ECMWF ensemble mean. The bi-furcation
scenario and increasing possibility of binary interaction is
decreasing the jtwc forecast confidence, now assessed as low. 
Maximum significant wave height at 190000z is 31 feet. Next
warnings at 191500z and 200300z. Refer to tropical cyclone 07s
(seven) warnings (wtxs32 pgtw) for six-hourly updates.//
Nnnn


		

Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Kenanga and the 2018 South Indian Ocean hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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Storm Track Statistics

Date Time Lat Lon Wind (mph) Pressure Storm Type
Dec 15 18 GMT -8.9 91.2 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 16 00 GMT -9.1 91.3 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 16 06 GMT -9.7 90.8 50 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 16 12 GMT -10 90.5 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 16 18 GMT -10.9 88.8 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 17 00 GMT -12.4 87.7 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 17 06 GMT -12.5 87.2 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 17 12 GMT -12.6 86.4 70 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 17 18 GMT -13 85.4 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 18 00 GMT -13.6 84.7 80 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 18 06 GMT -14.3 84.1 85 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 18 12 GMT -14.8 83.7 105 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 18 18 GMT -15.3 83.2 105 -- Tropical Cyclone
Dec 19 00 GMT -15.8 82.8 135 -- Tropical Cyclone

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Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Kenanga and the 2018 South Indian Ocean hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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