Tropical Cyclone Berguitta

Last Updated: 1516168800

Location:
-18.1N 299.8E
Movement:
W at 4 mph
Wind:
80 mph
Pressure:
--

Storm Maps
Storm Details

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000 
wtxs31 pgtw 170900
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta) warning nr 019    
   01 active tropical cyclone in southio
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   170600z --- near 18.1s 60.2e
     movement past six hours - 270 degrees at 04 kts
     position accurate to within 025 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 070 kt, gusts 085 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 005 nm northeast quadrant
                            035 nm southeast quadrant
                            035 nm southwest quadrant
                            035 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 015 nm northeast quadrant
                            075 nm southeast quadrant
                            060 nm southwest quadrant
                            060 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 085 nm northeast quadrant
                            090 nm southeast quadrant
                            110 nm southwest quadrant
                            110 nm northwest quadrant
   repeat posit: 18.1s 60.2e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   171800z --- 19.0s 59.0e
   Max sustained winds - 070 kt, gusts 085 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 015 nm northeast quadrant
                            030 nm southeast quadrant
                            025 nm southwest quadrant
                            020 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
                            075 nm southeast quadrant
                            065 nm southwest quadrant
                            055 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 120 nm northeast quadrant
                            230 nm southeast quadrant
                            260 nm southwest quadrant
                            120 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 24 hr posit: 235 deg/ 09 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   180600z --- 20.1s 57.4e
   Max sustained winds - 070 kt, gusts 085 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 020 nm northeast quadrant
                            035 nm southeast quadrant
                            025 nm southwest quadrant
                            020 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
                            085 nm southeast quadrant
                            075 nm southwest quadrant
                            055 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 120 nm northeast quadrant
                            240 nm southeast quadrant
                            215 nm southwest quadrant
                            125 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 36 hr posit: 235 deg/ 11 kts
    ---
   36 hrs, valid at:
   181800z --- 21.4s 55.4e
   Max sustained winds - 070 kt, gusts 085 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 015 nm northeast quadrant
                            030 nm southeast quadrant
                            025 nm southwest quadrant
                            020 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
                            080 nm southeast quadrant
                            070 nm southwest quadrant
                            050 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 130 nm northeast quadrant
                            250 nm southeast quadrant
                            220 nm southwest quadrant
                            125 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 48 hr posit: 230 deg/ 11 kts
    ---
   extended outlook:
   48 hrs, valid at:
   190600z --- 22.8s 53.5e
   Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 064 kt winds - 020 nm northeast quadrant
                            045 nm southeast quadrant
                            030 nm southwest quadrant
                            020 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 050 kt winds - 040 nm northeast quadrant
                            080 nm southeast quadrant
                            065 nm southwest quadrant
                            040 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 150 nm northeast quadrant
                            240 nm southeast quadrant
                            215 nm southwest quadrant
                            120 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 72 hr posit: 210 deg/ 11 kts
    ---
   72 hrs, valid at:
   200600z --- 26.7s 51.1e
   Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   becoming extratropical
   radius of 050 kt winds - 085 nm northeast quadrant
                            095 nm southeast quadrant
                            070 nm southwest quadrant
                            055 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 180 nm northeast quadrant
                            220 nm southeast quadrant
                            175 nm southwest quadrant
                            105 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 96 hr posit: 175 deg/ 11 kts
    ---
   long range outlook:
    ---
   96 hrs, valid at:
   210600z --- 31.0s 51.4e
   Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   becoming extratropical
   radius of 050 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
                            075 nm southeast quadrant
                            085 nm southwest quadrant
                            065 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 200 nm northeast quadrant
                            240 nm southeast quadrant
                            210 nm southwest quadrant
                            160 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 120 hr posit: 130 deg/ 11 kts
    ---
   120 hrs, valid at:
   220600z --- 33.8s 55.4e
   Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   extratropical
   radius of 034 kt winds - 165 nm northeast quadrant
                            320 nm southeast quadrant
                            280 nm southwest quadrant
                            235 nm northwest quadrant
    ---
remarks:
170900z position near 18.3s 59.9e.
Tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta), located approximately 204 nm
northeast of port Louis, Mauritius, has tracked westward at 04
knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite 
imagery depicts flaring central convection with a dense overcast 
layer obscuring the low level circulation center. There is high 
confidence in the initial position which is based on a 170528z metop-
a ascat image showing the LLCC near the edge of swath and the 
corresponding 89ghz AMSU image depicting weak convection emanating 
from the center sheared slightly to the west. The initial intensity 
is assessed at 70 knots which is based on current intensity Dvorak 
estimates ranging from t4.0 to t4.5 (65 to 77 knots). Upper-level 
analysis shows a point source directly over the system with a strong 
poleward feed into the mid-latitude jet. SSTs in the area are also 
warm around 28 celsius. Tc 06s is currently tracking westward along 
the northwestern periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge to 
the southeast with a strong ridge extension protruding westward just 
south of tc 06s. The ridge extension is forecast to weaken over the 
next 12 to 24 hours and guide tc 06s on a southwest track for 
through tau 48. Environmental conditions will remain favorable to 
sustain the current intensity around 70 knots with minor 
fluctuations over the next 48 hours. Around tau 72 a mid-latitude 
trough approaching from the west will erode the western extent of 
the ridge axis and shift the track to south then southeast as it 
rounds the ridge axis. Interaction with the approaching trough will 
induce vertical wind shear and baroclinic instability contributing 
to a weakening trend. Tc 06s is forecast to complete extratropical 
transition by tau 120 as it accelerates southeastward. Dynamic model 
guidance shows very good agreement with a narrow margin of 
uncertainty for the first 48 hours. Although model solutions have 
been slow to account for the persistent ridge to the south of tc 
06s, resulting in a more westward track in the last 24 hours than 
expected, solutions have consistently shown good agreement for a 
trajectory over the islands of Mauritius and La Reunion. Overall 
there is high confidence in the forecast track. Maximum significant 
wave height at 170600z is 27 feet. Next warnings at 171500z, 
172100z, 180300z and 180900z.//
Nnnn

Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Berguitta and the 2018 South Indian Ocean hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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Storm Track Statistics

Date Time Lat Lon Wind (mph) Pressure Storm Type
Jan 12 18 GMT -17 66.9 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 00 GMT -17.3 65.6 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 06 GMT -17.7 64.9 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 12 GMT -17.9 64.0 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 18 GMT -18.3 63.6 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 00 GMT -18.2 63.4 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 06 GMT -18.1 63.0 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 12 GMT -18.1 62.9 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 18 GMT -18 63.1 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 00 GMT -17.8 63.2 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 06 GMT -17.8 63.2 85 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 12 GMT -18 63.0 105 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 18 GMT -18.1 62.6 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 00 GMT -18.2 61.9 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 06 GMT -18 61.6 110 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 12 GMT -18.2 61.1 100 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 18 GMT -18.2 60.8 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 00 GMT -18.3 60.6 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 06 GMT -18.1 60.2 80 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 12 18 GMT -17 66.9 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 00 GMT -17.3 65.6 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 06 GMT -17.7 64.9 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 12 GMT -17.9 64.0 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 18 GMT -18.3 63.6 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 00 GMT -18.2 63.4 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 06 GMT -18.1 63.0 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 12 GMT -18.1 62.9 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 18 GMT -18 63.1 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 00 GMT -17.8 63.2 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 06 GMT -17.8 63.2 85 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 12 GMT -18 63.0 105 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 18 GMT -18.1 62.6 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 00 GMT -18.2 61.9 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 06 GMT -18 61.6 110 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 12 GMT -18.2 61.1 100 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 18 GMT -18.2 60.8 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 00 GMT -18.3 60.6 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 06 GMT -18.1 60.2 80 -- Tropical Cyclone

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