U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0737 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 


Valid 230100z - 231200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from the lower 
MS valley to northwest Georgia... 


... 
Isolated strong storms are possible this evening along a corridor 
from southern Louisiana to northwest Georgia. Gusty winds and hail 
are the primary threats through mid evening. 


... 


Large-scale mid-level height falls will spread across the central 
Gulf states tonight as strong 500mb speed Max translates across OK 
into the lower MS valley by sunrise Sunday. High-level diffluent 
flow should enhance upper venting for continued convection along the 
cold front as it advances across the remainder of la/MS into 
southern Alabama/northwest Georgia late tonight. However, 00z soundings 
across the central Gulf states exhibit only modest instability/shear 
such that robust convection capable of producing gusty winds and 
some hail may be noted...especially this evening south of I-20. 
Elsewhere along the front, draped across the southern Appalachians 
into NC, boundary-layer cooling and weak forcing will limit 
convection/severe threat along this portion of the wind shift. 


.Darrow.. 04/23/2017 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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Mesoscale discussion 0549 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0640 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017 


Areas affected...extreme southwest Tennessee /western NC...northwest 
Georgia...portions of central into northeast Alabama 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158... 


Valid 222340z - 230045z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158 
continues. 


Summary...a general weakening trend is expected heading into the 
evening hours. A few strong/marginally severe storms may persist 
another 1-2 hours, producing strong wind gusts and perhaps small 
hail. However, threat will diminish with time and eastward extent 
and a downstream watch is not expected. 


Discussion...scattered strong to severe thunderstorms along a line 
from far western NC/southwest Tennessee through central Alabama into southern MS 
will continue to track east this evening. In general, recent 
weakening trend should continue with loss of daytime heating and a 
stabilizing boundary layer. Modest midlevel lapse rates and adequate 
deep layer shear should sustain storms into the evening, and in the 
short term /next 1-2 hours/ some strong gusts and small hail will be 
possible. Given the marginal nature of the threat downstream of ww 
158 and overall weakening trend, a downstream watch is not expected, 
and ww 158 likely will be able to be canceled before the 02z 
expiration time. 


.Leitman.. 04/22/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...gsp...mrx...ffc...bmx...hun...mob...Jan... 


Latitude...Lon 32238702 32038744 32008793 32128832 32668837 33378757 
34448630 35258490 35408431 35328391 35088375 34848384 
34298447 33978487 33048597 32238702