U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 221630 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1130 am CDT sun Jul 22 2018 


Valid 221630z - 231200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion of 
the Gulf Coast states as well as the northern and Central Plains... 


... 
Severe storms, primarily capable of damaging winds and large hail, 
will be possible across parts of the southeast and northern/Central 
Plains this afternoon and evening. A few marginally severe storms 
are also possible over a portion of the middle Atlantic region. 


..Gulf coastal area including Florida... 


Numerous storms are in the process of developing within the weakly 
capped, but moderately unstable environment across northern Florida. 
These storms will be capable of producing mainly isolated damaging 
wind. Additional storms are expected to develop/intensify farther 
west along and south of a cold front across southern Alabama as well as 
in association with sea breeze boundaries over the Florida Panhandle. 
These storms will be embedded within 35-45 kt unidirectional 
effective bulk shear within base of upper low circulation. Damaging 
wind and large hail will be possible with both multicell and 
supercell storm modes. 


..northern through Central Plains region... 


A shortwave trough will continue east through Saskatchewan and 
Manitoba along the international border and eventually affecting 
extreme northern ND. A cold front will accompany this feature 
through the northern and Central Plains today and tonight. A 
corridor of moderate instability is likely in pre-frontal warm 
sector along with sufficient (35-45 kt) deep-layer shear for 
supercells from ND into South Dakota. Storms will likely develop over the 
Dakotas later this afternoon posing a risk for isolated large hail 
and damaging wind gusts. Other storms might develop farther south 
along the front across central NE by early evening where weaker 
shear will promote multicells, but the thermodynamic environment 
will support some threat for a few instances of damaging wind and 
large hail. Other storms will form over the higher terrain of Colorado and 
Wyoming and spread east into the High Plains this afternoon and evening 
with a modest threat for damaging wind and hail. 


..middle Atlantic region... 


Some destabilization is likely in this region today and potential 
will exist for storms to redevelop and interact with a weak warm 
front as they lift north. Low-level hodographs in vicinity of this 
boundary will support a modest risk for a few low-level 
mesoscyclones and a brief tornado or two. Reference sels mesoscale discussion 1132 for 
more information. 


.Dial/nauslar.. 07/22/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 221758 
flz000-alz000-221900- 


Mesoscale discussion 1134 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1258 PM CDT sun Jul 22 2018 


Areas affected...North Florida...southern Georgia 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303... 


Valid 221758z - 221900z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303 
continues. 


Summary...strong storms continue to affect parts of northeast Florida. 


Discussion...numerous strong to severe thunderstorms continue to 
affect northeast Florida. The merged outflow boundary from these storms 
extends from Volusia County westward into Marion/Alachua/Gilchrist 
counties. This corridor appears to have the highest likelihood of 
organized severe storms in the next couple of hours. Vertical shear 
and cape profiles continue to support damaging winds and some hail 
risk in the strongest cells. 


.Hart.. 07/22/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...tae...bmx...mob... 


Latitude...Lon 32198771 31628568 31048502 30048515 29808609 30338708 
30708765 31398803 32198771