U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 220532 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1232 am CDT Thu Mar 22 2018 

Valid 241200z - 251200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

a few thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley region on 
Saturday, across North Texas and Oklahoma Saturday night, and across 
coastal northern California and Oregon. 

A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves from the mid MS 
valley toward the Appalachians, phasing with a larger upper trough 
over the northeast. Low pressure will weaken during the day from MO 
into Tennessee as a cold front settles southward across the lower MS 
valley. A warm front will precede the low across the Ohio Valley, with 
showers and a few thunderstorms across much of the area with lift 
aided by a 50 kt southwesterly low-level jet. None of this activity 
is expected to be severe due to weak instability. 

To the west, a stalled front will extend roughly east-west across 
the Red River, with mid 60s f dewpoints over Texas. Thunderstorms are 
not expected for most of the day due to capping and rising heights 
aloft, but weak lift from warm advection may support a few nocturnal 
thunderstorms across OK and far northern Texas Saturday night. Small 
hail cannot be ruled out. 

Elsewhere, an expansive upper trough will encompass much of the 
west, with an upper low dropping south into northern California through 
Sunday morning. Cold air aloft will result in weak instability, with 
lift along a cold front possibly supporting isolated low-topped 

.Jewell.. 03/22/2018