- Day Three
acus03 kwns 220533
Storm Prediction Center ac 220532
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 am CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Valid 241200z - 251200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
a few thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley region on
Saturday, across North Texas and Oklahoma Saturday night, and across
coastal northern California and Oregon.
A shortwave trough will lose amplitude as it moves from the mid MS
valley toward the Appalachians, phasing with a larger upper trough
over the northeast. Low pressure will weaken during the day from MO
into Tennessee as a cold front settles southward across the lower MS
valley. A warm front will precede the low across the Ohio Valley, with
showers and a few thunderstorms across much of the area with lift
aided by a 50 kt southwesterly low-level jet. None of this activity
is expected to be severe due to weak instability.
To the west, a stalled front will extend roughly east-west across
the Red River, with mid 60s f dewpoints over Texas. Thunderstorms are
not expected for most of the day due to capping and rising heights
aloft, but weak lift from warm advection may support a few nocturnal
thunderstorms across OK and far northern Texas Saturday night. Small
hail cannot be ruled out.
Elsewhere, an expansive upper trough will encompass much of the
west, with an upper low dropping south into northern California through
Sunday morning. Cold air aloft will result in weak instability, with
lift along a cold front possibly supporting isolated low-topped