- Day Three
acus03 kwns 150746
Storm Prediction Center ac 150745
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 am CST Thu Nov 15 2018
Valid 171200z - 181200z
..no thunderstorm areas forecast...
thunder probabilities will remain low across the country Saturday,
although a few lightning strikes may occur across deep south Texas
..deep south Texas...
Weak mid-level short-wave trough within southern stream is forecast
to eject across northern Mexico into deep south Texas by the end of the
period. In response to this feature, weak pressure falls will
develop over the northwest Gulf basin and low-level warm advection
should increase inland over deep south Texas. Forecast soundings
suggest weak buoyancy will evolve after midnight and shallow
elevated convection may ultimately develop within this warm
advection regime. If instability ultimately is greater than
currently forecast more robust/deeper updrafts could attain heights
sufficient for lightning. At this time thunder probabilities appear
less than 10%.