U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 150745 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0145 am CST Thu Nov 15 2018 


Valid 171200z - 181200z 


..no thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
thunder probabilities will remain low across the country Saturday, 
although a few lightning strikes may occur across deep south Texas 
late. 


..deep south Texas... 


Weak mid-level short-wave trough within southern stream is forecast 
to eject across northern Mexico into deep south Texas by the end of the 
period. In response to this feature, weak pressure falls will 
develop over the northwest Gulf basin and low-level warm advection 
should increase inland over deep south Texas. Forecast soundings 
suggest weak buoyancy will evolve after midnight and shallow 
elevated convection may ultimately develop within this warm 
advection regime. If instability ultimately is greater than 
currently forecast more robust/deeper updrafts could attain heights 
sufficient for lightning. At this time thunder probabilities appear 
less than 10%. 


.Darrow.. 11/15/2018 


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