U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 250659 
Storm Prediction Center ac 250658 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0158 am CDT Fri may 25 2018 

Valid 271200z - 281200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the northern High Plains and into the Dakotas... 

Strong/locally severe storms will be possible across portions of the 
northern and Central High plains and into the Dakotas. 

While gradual progression of a weak/low-amplitude trough will 
continue across the Great Lakes and into the northeast/New England 
Sunday, the upper low over the interior west is forecast to become 
more cut-off from the flow, and thus linger quasi-stationarily 
across the Great Basin vicinity through the period. 

At the surface, Lee troughing will remain across the High Plains, 
while the Gulf of Mexico low is progged to shift northward with time 
toward the coast. 

..parts of the northern/Central High plains into the Dakotas... 
As the upper low lingers over the intermountain region, afternoon 
heating/destabilization over the High Plains in conjunction with 
weak ascent associated with subtle features aloft rotating around 
the parent low will contribute to isolated/scattered afternoon storm 
development. With moderate southerly mid-level flow atop the High 
Plains, a few stronger/possibly rotating storms will likely evolve, 
with attendant/isolated risk for damaging winds and hail. Evening 
intensification of a southerly low-level jet may permit one or two 
clusters of storms to persist eastward into the Dakotas, where 
low-end severe risk may continue through the evening. 

..central and eastern Gulf Coast region... 
Models generally suggest that the tropical/sub-tropical low 
initially over the eastern/central Gulf of Mexico will continue 
moving northward, possibly making landfall during the period. While 
low-level flow surrounding the system may remain sufficient to 
support low-level rotation within convective cells, uncertainty 
regarding the progression and evolution of the system precludes an 
areal delineation of any tornado risk at this time. Probabilities 
may be included in later outlooks over portions of the central 
and/or eastern Gulf Coast region as details regarding this system 
become a bit more certain. 

.Goss.. 05/25/2018