U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 200721 
swody3 
Storm Prediction Center ac 200720 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0220 am CDT Thu Sep 20 2018 


Valid 221200z - 231200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
severe weather is not expected across the U.S. On Saturday. 


... 
As an energetic short-wave trough within the fast belt of polar 
westerlies over the northern U.S. And Canada shifts across the 
Maritimes and into the northwest Atlantic, a second trough within 
this belt of flow will move inland across the Pacific northwest. 
South of the main belt of flow, a weak trough is progged to move 
slowly across the Southern Plains region, while several weak 
disturbances move across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys through the 
period. 


At the surface, the trailing portion of a cold front vacating the 
northeastern U.S. Early in the period is forecast to remain 
quasi-stationary, stretching from the mid-Atlantic region, across 
southern Appalachians, to the arklatex area. The main southward 
advance of the colder air north of this front should be limited to 
portions of Texas and Oklahoma, west of a weak low progged to drift 
very slowly eastward across the northeast/East Texas vicinity 
through the period. 


Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast along the 
quasi-stationary front, but with the boundary south of the belt of 
stronger flow aloft, little risk for severe weather is evident at 
this time. Widespread convection is forecast across the 
south-central U.S. -- From eastern portions of the Southern Plains 
into the lower Mississippi Valley -- ahead of the weak upper system. 
Here also, weak shear should preclude appreciable severe risk. 


.Goss.. 09/20/2018 


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