U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Today
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Day Three

000 
acus01 kwns 261600 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 261558 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1058 am CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 


Valid 261630z - 271200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of 
southern nm and far West Texas... 


... 
A few strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds are possible 
this afternoon and evening over far West Texas and adjacent New 
Mexico. 


..southern nm/far West Texas... 
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Visible 
satellite imagery shows partial clearing is occurring over this 
region, with dewpoints climbing through the 50s. 12z model 
solutions continue to suggest isolated thunderstorm development will 
occur this afternoon and evening. Favorable effective shear values 
will promote rotating storms capable of hail and gusty winds. 
However, similar to the last several days, convective coverage is 
expected to remain sparse. 


.Hart/Broyles.. 09/26/2017 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


000 
acus11 kwns 252053 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 252053 
txz000-nmz000-252300- 


Mesoscale discussion 1672 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0353 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 


Areas affected...southern High Plains 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 252053z - 252300z 


Probability of watch issuance...20 percent 


Summary...a few storms capable of isolated large hail and/or 
damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon across the southern 
High Plains. 


Discussion...temperatures across the region have warmed into the 
upper 70s to low 80s under mostly clear skies, eroding any previous 
convective inhibition. Modest large-scale forcing for ascent 
combined with favorable orographic circulations has resulted in the 
development of widely scattered thunderstorms within this moderately 
unstable and uncapped environment. Sheared kinematic environment, 
characterized by southeasterly surface winds and southwesterly wind 
aloft, is favorable for a few more organized/rotating storms. 
Primary severe threat with these more organized storms is isolated 
large hail although a few strong wind gusts are also possible. 
However, current expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to remain 
widely scattered and for instances of severe weather to remain 
isolated, largely as a result of only modest instability and weak 
large-scale forcing for ascent. As such, a severe thunderstorms 
watch is not currently anticipated. 


.Mosier/Hart.. 09/25/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...lub...maf...abq...epz... 


Latitude...Lon 31000481 32620509 34640457 34460296 32110245 30350237 
29060294 29370418 31000481