U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus02 kwns 260527 
swody2 
Storm Prediction Center ac 260526 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1226 am CDT Wed Apr 26 2017 


Valid 271200z - 281200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from a portion 
of the southeastern states into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes... 


... 
At least a marginal risk for a few severe storms capable of isolated 
damaging wind gusts and hail is expected from the southeast states 
into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Thursday. 


... 


Lead shortwave trough embedded within a broad synoptic trough will 
continue northeast through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes early 
Thursday. Farther upstream, a series of vorticity maxima north of an 
evolving, strong upper jet core will advance southeast through the 
Great Basin, southern rockies and Southern Plains. The surface 
cyclone attending the lead shortwave trough will occlude over the 
Great Lakes, while trailing front continues through the Ohio and Tennessee 
valleys. The southwestern extension of this front will stall and 
return north as a warm front across Texas in response to Lee 
cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. 


..southeast states... 


Richer low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 60s f will reside 
over a portion of the southeast states warm sector, contributing to 
marginal to moderate instability. It is likely that storms will be 
ongoing from middle Tennessee into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and some of 
this activity could pose an ongoing severe risk as it continue east 
during the morning into the early afternoon given favorable wind 
profiles but modest instability. Tendency will be for the deeper 
forcing and stronger low-mid level winds to gradually shift north of 
this region in association with shortwave trough moving northeast 
through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This may serve as a 
limiting factor for a longer duration, organized severe threat. 
Nevertheless, this area will continue to be monitored for a possible 
slight risk in future updates. 


..Ohio Valley and Great Lakes... 


The feed of Richer low-level moisture will become limited as the 
cyclone occludes over the Great Lakes region. However, at least 
marginal instability within a strong shear environment will exist in 
pre-frontal warm sector, and storms might pose some risk for a few 
instances of isolated damaging wind gusts and hail as they develop 
east during the day. This region will also be monitored for a 
possible slight risk in later updates. 


.Dial.. 04/26/2017 


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