U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus02 kwns 241721 
swody2 
Storm Prediction Center ac 241721 


Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1221 PM CDT sun Sep 24 2017 


Valid 251200z - 261200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
severe weather is not expected across the contiguous United States 
Monday into Monday night. 


... 
A prominent shortwave trough, currently located over Utah per 
water-vapor imagery and embedded within the western states 
large-scale trough, will track from the central rockies to the 
northern plains this forecast period. As this evolution occurs, a 
trough, though weaker, is expected to remain in the west flanked by 
two ridges - one in the eastern Pacific and the other extending from 
the northeast U.S. To the northwest Gulf Coast region. 


At 12z Monday, a surface front is expected to extend from Western 
Lake Superior into northwest WI and through western IA, western Kansas 
to the Texas Panhandle and the southern High Plains. Little movement 
is forecast with the northern extent of this boundary as a surface 
low tracks along the front into northern WI by 12z Tuesday. 
Meanwhile, the trailing portion of the front should have its 
greatest eastward movement across parts of IA, Kansas and into western 
OK, as the mid-level trough moves toward the northern plains. Aside 
from convection across the Gulf Coast states, the potential for 
showers and thunderstorms will remain focused in vicinity of the 
central U.S. Frontal zone through day 2. The presence of poor 
mid-level lapse rates and the lack of stronger buoyancy on Monday 
are expected to inhibit stronger updrafts from occurring and 
preclude the introduction of severe-weather probabilities from any 
portions of the Southern Plains to the upper MS valley. 


.Peters.. 09/24/2017 


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