- Day Three
acus02 kwns 241721
Storm Prediction Center ac 241721
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT sun Sep 24 2017
Valid 251200z - 261200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
severe weather is not expected across the contiguous United States
Monday into Monday night.
A prominent shortwave trough, currently located over Utah per
water-vapor imagery and embedded within the western states
large-scale trough, will track from the central rockies to the
northern plains this forecast period. As this evolution occurs, a
trough, though weaker, is expected to remain in the west flanked by
two ridges - one in the eastern Pacific and the other extending from
the northeast U.S. To the northwest Gulf Coast region.
At 12z Monday, a surface front is expected to extend from Western
Lake Superior into northwest WI and through western IA, western Kansas
to the Texas Panhandle and the southern High Plains. Little movement
is forecast with the northern extent of this boundary as a surface
low tracks along the front into northern WI by 12z Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the trailing portion of the front should have its
greatest eastward movement across parts of IA, Kansas and into western
OK, as the mid-level trough moves toward the northern plains. Aside
from convection across the Gulf Coast states, the potential for
showers and thunderstorms will remain focused in vicinity of the
central U.S. Frontal zone through day 2. The presence of poor
mid-level lapse rates and the lack of stronger buoyancy on Monday
are expected to inhibit stronger updrafts from occurring and
preclude the introduction of severe-weather probabilities from any
portions of the Southern Plains to the upper MS valley.