U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 150520 
Storm Prediction Center ac 150520 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1120 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018 

Valid 161200z - 171200z 

..no thunderstorm areas forecast... 

weak convection may be observed across parts of the northeastern 
United States Friday but the Prospect for lightning is low. 


Focused large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across New 
England during the day2 period in association with exit region of 
mid-level jet. Latest model guidance suggests mid-level lapse rates 
will steepen along this corridor such that elevated convection will 
likely be noted north of deepening surface low. However, overall 
buoyancy will likely be too weak to warrant 10% thunder 
probabilities despite the possibility for a few lightning strikes. 
For these reasons have removed thunder to this part of the country. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 

.Darrow.. 11/15/2018