Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 151800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/151351znov2018//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 151200z, tropical cyclone 07b (gaja) was located near
10.9n 81.2e, approximately 145 nm south- southeast of chennai,
India, and had tracked west-southwestward at 10 knots over the past
six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 55
knots gusting to 70 knots. See ref a (wtio31 pgtw 151500) for
further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 96s) previously located
near 9.5s 103.0e, has dissipated and is no longer suspect for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
      (2) an area of convection (remnants of 04s) has persisted near
8.7s 92.6e, approximately 309 nm northwest of Cocos Islands.
Animated enhanced infrared imagery shows a low level circulation
(llc) that is partially obscured by overhead deep convection sheared
to the west. A 151520z mhs metop-b 89ghz microwave image shows low
level wrapping with a small pocket of deep convection to the west of
the llc. The remnants of 04s are in a generally unfavorable
environment with favorable (26 to 28 degrees celsius) sea surface
temperatures and good poleward outflow offset by very high (25 to 30
knot) vertical wind shear. Global models are in good agreement that
04s with track southwest and begin regeneration. Maximum sustained
surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots. Minimum sea level
pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for the
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is low.
      (3) no other suspect areas.//

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