Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 221800
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/221352zmar2018//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 221200z, tropical cyclone 15s (marcus) was located near 
17.6s 106.3e, approximately 522 nm west-northwest of Learmonth, 
Australia, and had tracked south- southwestward at 09 knots over the 
past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 
125 knots gusting to 150 knots. See ref a (wtxs32 pgtw 221500) for 
further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 96s) has persisted near 
10.9s 87.2e, approximately 570 nm west of Cocos Island. Animated 
enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a 221552z 89ghz AMSU 
microwave image depict a broad region of low level turning with some 
associated flaring convection. Vertical wind shear is in the low-
moderate range (10-20kts), with higher shear being offset by strong 
upper level divergence. Sea surface temperatures are warm (28-30 
celsius) in the southern Io and are supportive. Global models 
indicate a small possibility of invest 96s developing into a weak 
tropical storm in the 18-48hr time frame as it tracks southeast. 
However, given the current state of the low level circulation the 
overall probability of development in 24hrs is low. Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1002 mb. The potential for 
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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