Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 150600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/150600z-160600zjan2019//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (rmnts 01w) previously located near 
5.0n 153.5e, is now located near 4.6n 152.2e, approximately 165 nm 
south of Chuuk. Animated multispectral satellite imagery and a 
partial 150136z 89ghz gmi microwave image depict flaring convection 
starting to wrap into an elongated low level circulation (llc) from 
the north. The llc is currently under a large region of low (5-15kt) 
vertical wind shear and strong divergence aloft due to broad 
westward and poleward outflow. SSTs remain favorably warm (30-32c) 
in this region of the equatorial Pacific. Global models are in 
strong agreement that rmnts 01w will regain tropical depression 
strength between 160000z and 180000z as it continues on a west-
northwest track towards the Philippines. Maximum sustained surface 
winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is 
estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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