Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 262200
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/262200z-270600zjul2017//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/261951zjul2017//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/260151zjul2017//
ref/c/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/261954zjul2017//
narr/refs a, b and c are tropical cyclone warnings.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 261800z, typhoon 07w (Noru) was located near 30.4n 
153.9e, approximately 372 nm north of minami tori shima, and had 
tracked west-northwestward at 16 knots over the past six hours. 
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 65 knots gusting 
to 80 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 262100) for further details.
      (2) at 260000z, tropical depression 09w (kulap) was located 
near 31.7n 151.1e, approximately 475 nm north-northwest of minami 
tori shima, and had tracked west- southwestward at 11 knots over the 
past six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 25 
knots gusting to 35 knots. See ref b (wtpn33 pgtw 260300) for the 
final warning on this system.
      (3) at 261800z, tropical storm 11w (Nesat) was located near 
17.4n 127.7e, approximately 421 nm east- northeast of Manila, 
Philippines, and had tracked northward at 06 knots over the past six 
hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 50 knots 
gusting to 65 knots. See ref c (wtpn34 pgtw 262100) for further 
details.
      (4) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 93w) previously located 
near 23.6n 173.8e, is now located near 23.5n 173.9e, approximately 
479 nm northeast of Wake Island. Animated enhanced infrared 
satellite imagery shows a subtropical system with flaring convection 
to the east of the disturbance. The system is accessed as 
subtropical due to the unique nature of an upper level trough 
sitting above the system with a low pressure system located to the 
northeast. Currently, dry air is wrapping into the west side of a 
broad, elongated, and exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC). A 
261007z ascat metop-a pass shows an elongated low level circulation 
center (LLCC) with a patch of 35-40 knot wind barbs depicted 85 nm 
southeast of the LLCC. The disturbance is currently located in a 
high-shear environment, being sheared to the east. At this time, 
the disturbance has good outflow and warm sea surface temperatures 
(28-29c). Global models are in agreement that the disturbance will 
track north, south of a subtropical ridge over the next several 
days and slowly weaken. The system is not expected to transition 
into a tropical cyclone. Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 35 to 40 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is 
estimated to be near 1004 mb. The potential for the development of 
a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) an area of convection (invest 92w) located near 18.1n 
115.3e, approximately 257 nm southeast of Hong Kong, has persisted 
over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery 
depicts a partially exposed and broad low-level circulation center 
(LLCC) with persistent convection.  A 261740z amsr2 image depicts a 
large area of persistent deep convection over the southern semi-
Circle. A 261902z partial ascat image shows 15 to 20 knot winds over 
the southeastern semi-Circle of the circulation with 10 to 20 knot 
winds elsewhere. Upper-level analysis reveals a favorable 
environment with good diffluence aloft, low vertical wind shear, and 
strong equatorward outflow. Global models indicate weak development 
within the next 48 hours as the system tracks northwestward towards 
Hong Kong. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 
knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 mb. 
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone 
within the next 24 hours is medium.
      (3) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded are in para 1.B.(2) from 
invest only to medium.// 
Nnnn

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