Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 230600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/230600z-240600zfeb2018//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 95w) previously located 
near 5.5n 143.8e, is now located near 5.9n 134.2e, approximately 90 
nm south-southwest of Palau. Animated multispectral satellite 
imagery shows flaring, disorganized convection. However, the 230004z 
oscat and 230052 ascat images show straight-line flow at the surface 
with a small pocket of 15-20 knot winds. Environmental analysis has 
warm (28-30 celsius) sea surface temperatures with the upper level 
characterized by low (5-15 knot) vertical wind shear and adequate 
divergence aloft due to poleward outflow. Global dynamic models 
maintain a weak circulation at least out to the middle Taus, but do 
not predict development to tropical depression strength as the 
disturbance tracks westward.  Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated 
to be near 1008 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded 
to low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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