Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 190600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/190600z-200600zapr2018//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 94p) previously located
near 12.2s 178.2e, is now located near 12.7s 177.5e, approximately
305 nm north of nadi, Fiji. Animated multispectral satellite imagery
depicts flaring convection wrapping into a consolidated LLCC. Strong
divergence aloft due to equatorward and southeastward outflow, in
addtion with low (10-15kt) vws, are creating an overall very
favorable upper level environment. SSTs are warm (27-29c) north of
Fiji and will support further development. Global model support is
still weak, with all members maintaining a circulation or region of
sharp troughing with little development on a southward track.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. The
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours remains medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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