Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 152319

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC. 

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06n10w, to 06n12w. The ITCZ continues from 06n12w to 04n28w.
A surface trough is along 31w from 02n-09n. The ITCZ resumes from
02n34w to 01s45w. Scattered showers are noted south of 10n and
west of 20w.

Gulf of Mexico...

A pair of cold fronts extend across the eastern Gulf waters. The 
first one is from 26n80w to 23n83w then continues across the west 
Caribbean. The second front extends from 30n81w to 23n86w. 
Scattered showers are noted along each front. A surface trough is 
analyzed from 31n83w to 28n85w. Surface ridging prevails across 
the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1032 mb surface high 
centered over northern Mexico. 

The first cold front will will move slowly east and exit the 
basin and The Straits of Florida tonight. Strong northwest winds 
and seas to 9 ft behind the front will diminish gradually through
tonight, becoming light north winds on Sunday and Monday. 
Easterly wind flow will set up across the northern Gulf of Mexico 
on Tuesday, as weak low pressure develops in the SW Gulf of 

Caribbean Sea...

A cold front extends from the western tip of Cuba near 22n83w to 
16n86w. A pre-frontal trough extends from 22n81w to 11n83w. Scattered
showers are over the northwest Caribbean from mainly west of 82w.

Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the SW Caribbean, while an
upper-level trough is east of the Lesser Antilles. In between, dry
air covers the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.

The cold front in the northwest Caribbean will stall and slowly 
dissipate through Monday. Strong north winds are forecast west of
the front in the Gulf of Honduras through early Sunday. Fresh to 
strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean east of 80w 
through early sun, with highest winds at night off the coast of 
Colombia. Large north swell will continue across the leewards  
and spread through the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean 
through Sunday.

Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31n77w to
26n80w, while a secondary front is pushing offshore north of 30n
and west of 80w. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of
the first cold front mainly north of 26n between 75w-78w. To the
east, another frontal boundary is analyzed as a cold front from 
31n29w to 27n40w, then as a stationary front from that point to 
24n55w to 28n68w. Scattered showers are observed along the cold

Strong se to S winds will continue east of Florida and the 
Bahamas tonight, ahead of the cold fronts. The first cold front 
will reach from 31n76w to Straits of Florida this evening, from 
31n73w across the northwest Bahamas to central Cuba on Sunday 
afternoon, from near Bermuda to the southeast Bahamas and east 
central Cuba on Monday afternoon, and then stall and weaken from 
near 25n66w to the eastern end of Cuba on Tuesday. The fronts 
over the central Atlantic will continue weakening through early 
next week.

For additional information please visit 




View All Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

Category 6

Welcome to Category 6. This is the collective home for Weather Underground's featured writeups by Dr. Jeff Masters (right), Bob Henson (left), Chris Burt, and other regular contributors.

Learn more about and the hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

View All Hurricanes and Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Archive

All Atlantic Storms (1851-2018)

Named Storms for 2016

Historical Hurricane Statistics

Articles of Interest